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Piper lowers 2010 sales forecast to 4.3M, remains 'confident' in iPad

post #1 of 47
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After Apple revealed it sold 300,000 iPads on launch day, analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray revised his calendar year 2010 sales estimates to 4.3 million, though he remains confident in the iPad platform.

After seeing enthusiastic crowds lined up for the iPad on Saturday, Piper Jaffray increased its sales forecast to between 600,000 and 700,000. But Munster's original prediction of 200,000 to 300,000 turned out to be the more accurate guess.

The analyst issued a second note to investors Monday morning, noting that they were wrong on launch day sales. Piper Jaffray analysts believed that online sales would account for 75 percent of all iPad sales, but in reality, online preorders made up about 50 percent of sales, he said, resulting in a significant decrease.

Even though he reduced his expected iPad sales in 2010 from 5.6 million to 4.3 million, the number remains well above his initial prediction of 2.7 million that had been made prior to launch weekend.

"The bottom line is that we missed the launch day sales, but we remain confident in the iPad as an investable theme," Munster wrote.

Apple issued a press release on Monday touting that the iPad sold 300,000 in its first day of sales. The company also revealed that more than a million applications were downloaded from the App Store, and the new iBookstore saw over 250,000 books downloaded on its first day.



Munster noted that he and his team were also overly optimistic for the initial iPhone launch, when they believed Apple would sell 500,000 units. In reality, the handset moved 270,000 at launch. But even though those launch numbers concerned investors, Munster noted that the iPhone is expected to sell 36 million units and represent 39 percent of the company's revenue in 2010.

Earlier Monday, Piper Jaffray revealed the results of a survey it conducted with 448 iPad buyers. The study found that 74 percent of iPad buyers were Mac users, and 66 percent owned an iPhone. Just 13 percent owned an Amazon Kindle, and more than half of those said they would replace their Kindle with an iPad.
post #2 of 47
I'll believe the final figures for 2010 when they are announced in 2011.\
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post #3 of 47
... divide by 2.
post #4 of 47
Dear Mr. Munster,

Wait until the first week of sales after the release of the 3G version and overseas release. The WiFi version is pretty limiting with only one way to connect to the outside world. I tkink more people are waiting for the 3G version than most people predict.
post #5 of 47
stunts like this aren't good for an analyst's credibility. can you imagine if you were one of his clients and you traded on his forecast this morning?
post #6 of 47
Too many different sales forecasts in too little time.

I agree, the 3G model sales will be even more.
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post #7 of 47
Quote:
After seeing enthusiastic crowds lined up for the iPad on Saturday, Piper Jaffray increased its sales forecast to between 600,000 and 700,000. But Munster's original prediction of 200,000 to 300,000 turned out to be the more accurate guess.


stock manipulators
post #8 of 47
I would assume that most customers will be waiting for the 3G version. I mean just look at the thing, it screams mobility! I don't even understand why Apple bothered in making a WiFi only model.
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post #9 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by bloggerblog View Post

I would assume that most customers will be waiting for the 3G version. I mean just look at the thing, it screams mobility! I don't even understand why Apple bothered in making a WiFi only model.


Apple made a range of models and is letting the market decide, later on they will shake things out and likely slim down the models.

The 3G "other shoe" is certainly to drop with about the same figures as the wifi version, some people just have too much money and only want the best.
post #10 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by bloggerblog View Post

I would assume that most customers will be waiting for the 3G version. I mean just look at the thing, it screams mobility! I don't even understand why Apple bothered in making a WiFi only model.

It makes sense because of the high price of the 3G hardware and the fact that many people will use it at home on the couch/toilet within wifi range.
post #11 of 47
Why do stock people and news outlets like AI and CNN and others pay attention to this guy? He changes his forecast and projections as the wind changes, literally every other day he says something new. He sounds more and more like a moe-ron!!
post #12 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by mesomorphicman View Post

Why do stock people and news outlets like AI and CNN and others pay attention to this guy? He changes his forecast and projections as the wind changes, literally every other day he says something new. He sounds more and more like a moe-ron!!

for the very reason you just listed. every time there's even a hint of apple news he changes his forecast, giving them something to chat about. it provides the illusion of significance to even the most trivial bits of information. he's also extremely bullish on AAPL, which feeds into AI's pro-Apple bent.


-
post #13 of 47
Hi, folks.

I'm new to this forum, but I've owned Macs since 1984. I also am a holder of Apple stock, long term.

"After Apple revealed it sold 300,000 iPads on launch day...."

My guess is this doesn't include the pre-orders for the 3G iPad. As I understand, the 3G and the wifi only were about even in pre-orders. This strongly suggests a like number of 3G iPads will be sold on launch next week, bringing numbers to at least 600,000 total. I'd say Apple is on track to come close to a cool million in iPad sales by the beginning of May.

"...analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray revised his calendar year 2010 sales estimates to 4.3 million, though he remains confident in the iPad platform."

I believe this to be a very conservative estimate. I'm expecting at least half a million a month minimum until December. That's another 3.5 million leading up to the 2010 Xmas season, when I expect at least 1.5 million will be sold. My 2010 estimate: (1+3.5+1.5=) 6 million MINIMUM.
post #14 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sacto Joe View Post

... This strongly suggests a like number of 3G iPads will be sold on launch next week...

Did I miss this announcement? Is the 3G really coming out next week?

(The store still says late April, so maybe not.)
post #15 of 47
I don't think the 3G model will fare as well in initial sales and I'd say they will move roughly 15-20% (including preorders) of the numbers they posted today due to the initial costs and overlapping capabilities of the iPhone.

If Apple can move 500k in launch month, and keep a brisk 300k worldwide sales pace they'll be fine, but we will just have to see as time goes on
post #16 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by bloggerblog View Post

I would assume that most customers will be waiting for the 3G version. I mean just look at the thing, it screams mobility! I don't even understand why Apple bothered in making a WiFi only model.

I've thought that too, but I guess they want to keep prices low...

Quote:
Originally Posted by stevejr View Post

It makes sense because of the high price of the 3G hardware and the fact that many people will use it at home on the couch/toilet within wifi range.

Ideally, I wish it was possible for people to come back to the store, where they'd get the 3G component installed later. $25-50 for Labor, or Free within 30 Days of Purchase. A Genius would pop iPad open and insert the component into a slot... But, I don't know if it's technically that simple...

Also, unlike iPhone, iPad is not a MUST have device, but more of an AND device, a luxury item. We all need phones, thus it's a must... There was a lot of badmouthing of iPad, plus not everyone want to be the early adopter! Add Easter, when people travel, do family stuff etc. Still 300K is BIG!!! Warm Weather reinforces PORTABILITY Cravings even more!

 

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post #17 of 47
Those analysts are inflating their estimates and this will only make the iPad look bad no matter how good it does.

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post #18 of 47
Sorry for being off topic- anyone care to venture a estimate as to the number of units that would need to be sold to re-coup Apples investment in the ipad?

I don't get the impression that it was a large amount of investment dollars since most of the work is scaled from the iphone/ipod touch.
However, I recall reading that advertisement $$ for ipad was 100mil or so. Could it be been more than development itself?

Just blowing smoke guess- presume $200 dollars margin on typical ipad. Sell 1 million. $200 million.

didn't the Palm guys spend about 500mil to get the Pre up and running? I would not suspect I pad was near that much

All just guessing though, so... you may return to your normal programming.
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post #19 of 47
That guy is all over the place, saying random different numbers every day is a sure way to lose credibility in an already sketchy profession.
post #20 of 47
Somehow I have a sudden urge to located my Mad TV DVD collection... Love when Ms Swan appeared on Lowered Expectations
"Why iPhone"... Hmmm?
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"Why iPhone"... Hmmm?
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post #21 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Quote:
After seeing enthusiastic crowds lined up for the iPad on Saturday, Piper Jaffray increased its sales forecast to between 600,000 and 700,000. But Munster's original prediction of 200,000 to 300,000 turned out to be the more accurate guess.

stock manipulators

I do not think Munster is a stock manipulator, or I hope not. Having read quite a number of his predictions, either he is lazy, does not fully understand the essence of random sampling or he is just the type to grab the "information/rumor" to support his conclusion or in this case, predictions.

http://forums.appleinsider.com/showt...95#post1605095

CGC

"From my own analysis, based on known facts, I predict the iPad will sell more than 300k this year."
post #22 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevejr View Post

stunts like this aren't good for an analyst's credibility. can you imagine if you were one of his clients and you traded on his forecast this morning?

If anyone is dumb enough to follow the advice of a full-time AAPL analyst, there's no telling what they're thinking.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #23 of 47
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Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

stock manipulators

Your name is my reply.

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post #24 of 47
Gene's problem is that he thinks he can extrapolate sales numbers by standing in a flagship store like Apple's 5th Avenue store and then projecting those out to some kind of national sales figure. I don't know off-hand how accurate he's been with other Apple products with this ridiculous sounding methodology, but I know of a lot of Brits who were coming to the US and planning on being on this particular store over the weekend. Their numbers certainly wouldn't translate out to other stores across the country.
post #25 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by macologist View Post

I've thought that too, but I guess they want to keep prices low...

Ideally, I wish it was possible for people to come back to the store, where they'd get the 3G component installed later. $25-50 for Labor, or Free within 30 Days of Purchase. A Genius would pop iPad open and insert the component into a slot... But, I don't know if it's technically that simple...

Also, unlike iPhone, iPad is not a MUST have device, but more of an AND device, a luxury item. We all need phones, thus it's a must... There was a lot of badmouthing of iPad, plus not everyone want to be the early adopter! Add Easter, when people travel, do family stuff etc. Still 300K is BIG!!! Warm Weather reinforces PORTABILITY Cravings even more!

Incredible though it may seem, phones are not a "must have" item either. Anything other than food, clean water and shelter are luxuries we take for granted.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

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post #26 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post

I do not think Munster is a stock manipulator, or I hope not. Having read quite a number of his predictions, either he is lazy, does not fully understand the essence of random sampling or he is just the type to grab the "information/rumor" to support his conclusion or in this case, predictions.

Maybe "Fake Gene" has the answers... or not.

Let's ask the real Eugene... er, Gene.

Even better.

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post #27 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Incredible though it may seem, phones are not a "must have" item either. Anything other than food, clean water and shelter are luxuries we take for granted.

Well, if you really want to get technical, shelter's a luxury as well. It's only needed if you choose to live in a climate that's hostile and refuse to migrate to more temperate zones as weather and conditions change.

Clearly, though, nit-picking aside, the typical person would say that having a cell phone is much higher on the need-to-have list than something like an iPad, with an App-phone like the iPhone falling somewhere in between the two.
post #28 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by DistortedLoop View Post

Well, if you really want to get technical, shelter's a luxury as well. It's only needed if you choose to live in a climate that's hostile and refuse to migrate to more temperate zones as weather and conditions change.

Clearly, though, nit-picking aside, the typical person would say that having a cell phone is much higher on the need-to-have list than something like an iPad, with an App-phone like the iPhone falling somewhere in between the two.

I'm talking about basic cover, not a house.

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post #29 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by ifail View Post

I don't think the 3G model will fare as well in initial sales and I'd say they will move roughly 15-20% (including preorders) of the numbers they posted today due to the initial costs and overlapping capabilities of the iPhone.

If Apple can move 500k in launch month, and keep a brisk 300k worldwide sales pace they'll be fine, but we will just have to see as time goes on

Based on my in-depth studies (ie, asking my friends), I think the 3G version is going to kill. I, for one, have completely ignored the curren version.

I'm more of a road warrior, so having virtually ubiquitous coverage is a must. I really can't see myself tied down at home or searching for wifi hotspots all the time. AT&T's coverage woes notwithstanding, the 3G version is going to slay.
post #30 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

I'm talking about basic cover, not a house.

So am I.

You don't need shelter to survive in many climes...no matter how basic you want to define shelter.
post #31 of 47
"Did I miss this announcement? Is the 3G really coming out next week? (The store still says late April, so maybe not.)"

I may be a bit confused about the dates. I know a lot of pre-orders for the wifi version were pushed off until the 12th. I had thought that early pre-orders for the 3G were about the same time frame, and the later ones got bumbed out a couple of weeks to late April, but I may be wrong about that.

If true, then my timeline gets shifted out by a couple of weeks. I still think 6 million by the end of the year is very conservative.
post #32 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by DistortedLoop View Post

So am I.

You don't need shelter to survive in many climes...no matter how basic you want to define shelter.

I'm including some kind of clothing, be they rags or leaves or animal skins, as cover. In many more climes, you'll need to conserve body heat or repel environmental heat and solar radiation to survive.

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post #33 of 47
I knew this would happen.

Anyone remember the first iPhone? After the first day "analysts" kept topping each other with estimates of launch sales figures, going as high as 700,000. (It was less than half of that) It must hurt pulling such huge numbers out of one's ass.

Good thing that Apple announced the actual numbers instead of sending the stock on a wild goose chase...
post #34 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Maybe "Fake Gene" has the answers... or not.

Let's ask the real Eugene... er, Gene.

Even better.

During the weekend, I posted several comments criticizing Gene Munster's statistical analysis, an analyst who is much cited in Apple Insider. He is a darling among Apple followers because he is always bullish, and thus agree with the rosy picture that many Apple followers want to portray Apple.

One or two of the big guns here actually defended the record of Munster. In my case, I found his basis of his analyses rather dubious, at best not statistically correct.

Now, I am surprised how many in the web are crucifying him.

I agree with the perspective in regard Apple, being an Apple products user myself since Apple II myself -- although I also used MS OS products, as well as other operating systems. Similarly, I do admire the accomplishments of Steve Jobs, and the team in Apple.

However, the attitude that Apple can do no wrong, to the point of idolatry of Steve Jobs, and acceptance of every "posted text" that agree with this perspective is hurting Apple, to an extent.

I expect Apple-centric websites. like Apple Insider, to be more critical of articles published in the Web, but that seem not to be a priority. The same seems to happen with quite a number of Apple followers.


CGC
post #35 of 47
Quote:
Earlier Monday, Piper Jaffray revealed the results of a survey it conducted with 448 iPad buyers. The study found that 74 percent of iPad buyers were Mac users, and 66 percent owned an iPhone. Just 13 percent owned an Amazon Kindle, and more than half of those said they would replace their Kindle with an iPad.


The iPad is too small! I'm waiting for the 13 and 15 inch models which would allow me to actually read newspapers on the internet without pinching back and forth for every article. Which company will be the first to provide me and millions of buyers with a 15 inch tablet equipped with a front facing camera?

A note to Apple marketing: While you "are proud of what you don't put in an iPad", I'm paying for what is actually in the iPad. If you don't include a front facing camera, you don't get my money.

Finally, I included a quote from AppleInsider because it encapsulates Apple's problem. What is especially telling is that only 26% of iPad buyers are Windows users and only 34% don't already own an iPhone. It's called preaching to the converts as opposed to expanding the brand and the market share for Apple products.

This is one more illustration that Apple products are not made for the general public, but to please and enrich Steve Jobs. A 4% world market share after 34 years of existence is not the hallmark of genius, but a sign of failure brought about by arrogance, self importance and greed.

Hopefully, Apple will not wait a year before it brings to market what the market wants, i.e. a bigger tablet computer which allows buyers to actually read the content of newspapers published on the internet.

The iPad is too small. Bring on the 13 and the 15 inch models!


post #36 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post

During the weekend, I posted several comments criticizing Gene Munster's statistical analysis, an analyst who is much cited in Apple Insider. He is a darling among Apple followers because he is always bullish, and thus agree with the rosy picture that many Apple followers want to portray Apple.

One or two of the big guns here actually defended the record of Munster. In my case, I found his basis of his analyses rather dubious, at best not statistically correct.

Now, I am surprised how many in the web are crucifying him.

I agree with the perspective in regard Apple, being an Apple products user myself since Apple II myself -- although I also used MS OS products, as well as other operating systems. Similarly, I do admire the accomplishments of Steve Jobs, and the team in Apple.

However, the attitude that Apple can do no wrong, to the point of idolatry of Steve Jobs, and acceptance of every "posted text" that agree with this perspective is hurting Apple, to an extent.

I expect Apple-centric websites. like Apple Insider, to be more critical of articles published in the Web, but that seem not to be a priority. The same seems to happen with quite a number of Apple followers.


CGC

Hey look, it's our old friend Artie MacStrawman.
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post #37 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

I'm including some kind of clothing, be they rags or leaves or animal skins, as cover. In many more climes, you'll need to conserve body heat or repel environmental heat and solar radiation to survive.

If you're willing to migrate, you can be butt naked and survive just fine without even leaves as cover, no matter how much you want to insist otherwise. You don't even have to migrate if you find the right place. Plenty of naked aboriginal types running around in the tropics over the millennia surviving with nothing more than a loincloth.

This is really a silly debate, though. You wanted to nitpick the original poster for calling a cell phone a necessity compared to an iPad, and the basis of your own nitpick was flawed.

Time to move on, we're both off topic and not adding anything to the conversation at hand.
post #38 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by bloggerblog View Post

I would assume that most customers will be waiting for the 3G version. I mean just look at the thing, it screams mobility! I don't even understand why Apple bothered in making a WiFi only model.

Probably because wi-fi is more freely available in the rest of the world than in the US - my entire city centre is a wi-fi zone, my train to London is wi-fi enabled, my home, my office, my clients offices, my favourite coffee shop. I also have a 3G enabled phone, but 3G, frankly, sucks. it's terrible and slow, wi-fi is fast and is the future. The US needs to play catch up.
post #39 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by ouragan View Post

The iPad is too small! I'm waiting for the 13 and 15 inch models which would allow me to actually read newspapers on the internet without pinching back and forth for every article. Which company will be the first to provide me and millions of buyers with a 15 inch tablet equipped with a front facing camera?

A note to Apple marketing: While you "are proud of what you don't put in an iPad", I'm paying for what is actually in the iPad. If you don't include a front facing camera, you don't get my money.

Finally, I included a quote from AppleInsider because it encapsulates Apple's problem. What is especially telling is that only 26% of iPad buyers are Windows users and only 34% don't already own an iPhone. It's called preaching to the converts as opposed to expanding the brand and the market share for Apple products.

This is one more illustration that Apple products are not made for the general public, but to please and enrich Steve Jobs. A 4% world market share after 34 years of existence is not the hallmark of genius, but a sign of failure brought about by arrogance, self importance and greed.

Hopefully, Apple will not wait a year before it brings to market what the market wants, i.e. a bigger tablet computer which allows buyers to actually read the content of newspapers published on the internet.

The iPad is too small. Bring on the 13 and the 15 inch models!



I'm assuming you've yet to see a web optimised newspaper, let alone one for the 'pad. there are already 13 and 15 models, they're in the laptop range. Go buy one of those. re. the general public, my mum can't wait to have one of these things - she's never had a desktop or a laptop, she knows nothing about computers, yet she wants one. So the general public seem to like this device? Every technophobe I know wants one of these things - only anecdotal evidence I know, but then yours is just opinion...
post #40 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by nkhm View Post

Probably because wi-fi is more freely available in the rest of the world than in the US - my entire city centre is a wi-fi zone, my train to London is wi-fi enabled, my home, my office, my clients offices, my favourite coffee shop. I also have a 3G enabled phone, but 3G, frankly, sucks. it's terrible and slow, wi-fi is fast and is the future. The US needs to play catch up.


Easy to make WiFi ubiquitous when your country is smaller (geographically) than many US states.

I disagree that WiFi is the future anyways. It's very limited range, requires too many routers, relies on using other people's networks, and doesn't handle hand-overs well if you're mobile. Something like WiMax or the LTE variants coming down the pike here in the US are a better solution (for the US anyways).
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