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7.5M iPhones estimated sold in Q1 2010, users stay in Apple ecosystem

post #1 of 95
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Apple is projected to have sold 7.5 million iPhones in the first three months of 2010, and a new study suggests those users won't be leaving anytime soon, with high retention rates due to the investments many users have made in App Store software.

Analyst Maynard Um with UBS issued a new note to investors Wednesday morning, in which he noted a recent Q-Series survey that found Apple leads the smartphone industry in both mindshare and retention rate. Among respondents, 56 percent said they believe Apple is the best smartphone manufacturer, and the implied retention rate among a sample of 310 users is 95 percent -- well beyond, Um noted, anything else seen ever in the industry.

"While we believe that this retention can change rapidly, anecdotally during our survey we even received emails from three respondents asking when the next iPhone will be available," the analyst wrote.

A whopping 90 percent of iPhone owners think that Apple is the best handset maker on the market. Compare that to those who own a BlackBerry, with 42 percent saying Research in Motion is the best.

In fact, 40 percent of surveyed customers who own Nokia handsets believe Apple is the best smartphone manufacturer there is. Just 27 percent of users chose their own brand. Nokia smartphone owners were more loyal, but still only 60 percent said Nokia was the best smartphone manufacturer.



Um has raised his iPhone unit estimates for the March 2010 quarter to 7.5 million, up from his original prediction of 7 million. He said checks indicate that there is better-than-expected demand for the iPhone both domestically and internationally.



The report also issued the first estimate from UBS on iPad sales. Um expects Apple to ship 2.1 million in its 2010 fiscal year, growing to 4.6 million in 2011. Apple revealed this week that the new device sold 300,000 in its first day of availability.

"Although we remain bullish on the long term evolution of the iPad into the central console for the home, over the near-/medium-term, until we see more compelling apps to drive mass market adoption, we prefer to be cautious on overall adoption," he said.

Um declined to predict launch day sales, a guess on which some other analysts missed the mark. But Um's "cautious" prediction on first-year iPad sales is still below the predictions of many on Wall Street.

The 12-month price target for AAPL stock from UBS remains unchanged at $280. The firm has also reiterated its recommendation of "buy."
post #2 of 95
AI
Quote:
A whopping 90 percent of iPhone owners think that Apple is the best handset maker on the market. Compare that to those who own a BlackBerry, with 42 percent saying Research in Motion is the best.

In fact, 40 percent of surveyed customers who own Nokia handsets believe Apple is the best smartphone manufacturer there is. Just 27 percent of users chose their own brand. Nokia smartphone owners were more loyal, but still only 60 percent said Nokia was the best smartphone manufacturer.

These numbers are very interesting. High customer satisfaction with the iPhone
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post #3 of 95
And AAPL is over $240 just now and hopefully continuing upward. Way to go Apple
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From Apple ][ - to new Mac Pro I've used them all.
Long on AAPL so biased
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post #4 of 95
I wonder what market share trash Microsoft fans will put out now with these numbers. I notice that's all they seem to think of when talking about Apple or Linux. Gets tiring after a while.

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Although I no longer own Apple products like I did before, I'll continue to post my opinions.

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HP Omni 100-5100z, 500GB HDD, 4GB RAM; ASUS Transformer, 16GB, Android 4.0 ICS
Although I no longer own Apple products like I did before, I'll continue to post my opinions.

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post #5 of 95
I've had an iPhone since the original in 2007 and don't intend to jump ship anytime soon, I used to switch people to Mac's now I switch people to Macs and iPhones!
iPad, Macbook Pro, iPhone, heck I even have iLife! :-)
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iPad, Macbook Pro, iPhone, heck I even have iLife! :-)
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post #6 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Apple is projected to have sold 7.5 million iPhones in the first three months of 2010, and a new study suggests those users won't be leaving anytime soon, with high retention rates due to the investments many users have made in App Store software.

I doubt that the sunk cost in iPhone apps is the driving factor in retention. Those apps that aren't free are pretty cheap and could be replaced without too much wallet pain if necessary.

The iPhone consistently scores highest in customer satisfaction over other smartphones. That's what drives retention.
post #7 of 95
zapped


ok, my bad
post #8 of 95
AAPL is shooting up! When will be the right time to sell (and then buy more if it falls)? Actually, I don't think, it is gonna fall for a long time, since product line is well set for this year.
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Zune zucks...Flop show...then it may be too zoon to say that
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post #9 of 95
My investment in iApps is not insignificant. The prospect of buying similar apps again on another platform would definitely weigh on my decision to drop the iPhone. It's a wonder people switch from PC to Mac or vice versa given that problem.
post #10 of 95
Um, these statistics sound like they were just made up.
post #11 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilM View Post

I doubt that the sunk cost in iPhone apps is the driving factor in retention. Those apps that aren't free are pretty cheap and could be replaced without too much wallet pain if necessary.

The iPhone consistently scores highest in customer satisfaction over other smartphones. That's what drives retention.

Agreed! That is a consideration but it has to be way down on the list. It's the quality of the product that is the main reason for retention.

Once someone gets into the Apple ecosystem, whether it was as in previous years, an iPod or now with the iPhone-they're hooked! Mainly as you say because of the superior product and seemingly constant improvements provided.

Best
post #12 of 95
now where is Nokia here? even nokia owners says Iphone is the best smartphone there is...thats a slap on face for Nokia! what a shame for those ugly unit of phones made by nokia..

in short? NOKIA sucks bigtime!!!
post #13 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilM View Post

I doubt that the sunk cost in iPhone apps is the driving factor in retention. Those apps that aren't free are pretty cheap and could be replaced without too much wallet pain if necessary.

The iPhone consistently scores highest in customer satisfaction over other smartphones. That's what drives retention.

I agree. It seems like there is this pervasive attitude among business types that the goal of any business is to lock in customers so that they have no choice but to keep buying your product no matter how cr@ppy it becomes. Therefore, they interpret all of Apple's vertical integration as an attempt at that kind of lock-in. But I really don't see it that way -- Apple's vertical integration is geared towards reducing their costs and making a better product, not at lock-in. I'm sure they don't mind if lock-in is a side effect, but I really don't think that's their primary goal.
post #14 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

I agree. It seems like there is this pervasive attitude among business types that the goal of any business is to lock in customers so that they have no choice but to keep buying your product no matter how cr@ppy it becomes. Therefore, they interpret all of Apple's vertical integration as an attempt at that kind of lock-in. But I really don't see it that way -- Apple's vertical integration is geared towards reducing their costs and making a better product, not at lock-in. I'm sure they don't mind if lock-in is a side effect, but I really don't think that's their primary goal.

i totally agree with you here, the lock in made by apple is only incidental, simply because they make better and quality product...

but the one who didi play blatanly on this is the NOKIA where they come up year in year out of a new edition of their phone with just a minor improvemetnt from previos variant and then market it as a new model example of which, is today they will release 1 mp camera phone the following year they will release a 2mp phone a slightly improved version of the last, they were so busy doin that and that resulted to their downfall, while they busy themselves churcning out crappy phone every year with minor improvement of the last, apple on the other hand revolutionized how a smartphone should be, and NOKIA woke up and realized that they were lefted behind alreary in smartphone technolgy.

shame on NOKIA !!! they were so greedy milking people that time passed them by.
post #15 of 95
Personally, I was expecting a bit more.

In my friend's office, I convinced one out of twelve people to drop their Blackberry and switch to an iPhone one year ago.

One year later, seven out of the twelve have iPhones.

Amazing.
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post #16 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Foo2 View Post

Um, these statistics sound like they were just made up.

Always remember folks...

85% of all statistics are made up!
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post #17 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josh.B. View Post

Given that most iPods and iPhones are owned by Windows users, I don't see how you could be correct here.

Despite the popularity of the iPhone, OS X has not gained much market share. How do you explain that?

I think that's probably explained by the fact that the bulk of OS market share is controlled by corporate IT departments, and the way Apple deal with announcing their product pipeline (i.e. they don't!) is always going to make it less likely that companies will switch to OS X.

I can't remember where, but I seem to recall seeing that OS X's share of the home market (i.e. that which the consumers of the iPhone can influence) is gaining ground reasonably well, though I'm prepared to stand corrected by someone who can find numbers suggesting otherwise.
post #18 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by justflybob View Post

Always remember folks...

85% of all statistics are made up!

76% of people know that.
post #19 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Unless we see some new advancements in processors and batteries, I feel with the iPad (overheating, low wifi reception) and iPhone (low battery life) that Apple has pushed the present hardware to it's technical limits with features.

We may get new and improved iPhones soon, but I feel it won't be a radical change in new features unless the size increases a bit to accept a larger battery.

Apple has pressed the petal to the metal and there isn't any more...

Not sure the iPad issues are accurate. I have had mine since saturday, and don't have any over heating or low receptions issues at all after hours and hours of constant use. I think these are just hype. how many of the people that have reported these issues actually have an iPad???
post #20 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josh.B. View Post

"Best" is pretty loosey-goosey. I wonder what the actual questions and responses were.

How would you have phrased it? More important, given the way it has been phrased, what do you think the results mean? Why are they 'loosey-goosely?'

If you don't know/can't say, move along.
post #21 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elastic Reason View Post

Not sure the iPad issues are accurate. I have had mine since saturday, and don't have any over heating or low receptions issues at all after hours and hours of constant use. I think these are just hype. how many of the people that have reported these issues actually have an iPad???

Also note, the charging issues are probably the folks trying to use the iPad on a saturated hub or a non hi powered port. How many people actually know that the USB ports on the iMac's keyboard are not high powered...

And it's well known that the cheap laptops are not built to spec for the USB standards for power consumption. I am guessing that the fact that the iPad refuses to charge would be a protection mechanism built in to protect it from these cheap devices...
post #22 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post


Apple has pressed the petal to the metal and there isn't any more...

Yeah, those Cupertino hippies....
post #23 of 95
Build a great product, focus on the User Experience, and you'll reap the rewards.

This is what Apple is all about. This news comes as no surprise.

June is just around the corner.
post #24 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by justflybob View Post

Always remember folks...

85% of all statistics are made up!

Did you make that up, or do you have a source/cite?
post #25 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Unless we see some new advancements in processors and batteries, I feel with the iPad (overheating, low wifi reception) .

Nice attempt at FUD.

Yes there is a WiFi issue but a fix has been made and others fixes are presumably in the works. But no one who has reviewed the iPad thinks that it 'overheats'. Look here for a comprehensive review.
post #26 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Unless we see some new advancements in processors and batteries, I feel with the iPad (overheating, low wifi reception) and iPhone (low battery life) that Apple has pushed the present hardware to it's technical limits with features. ...

I'm getting really tired of the way in which you just casually make stuff up and set it out as if it's fact. At best, you are a serial exaggerator.

I've been reading iPad coverage for days, everything I can get my hands on including in-depth reviews, hardware assessments etc. and I've never heard of any "overheating" problems. Certainly, the way you casually mention it as if it's a known and widespread thing is completely disingenuous.

Similarly, the iPhone battery is one of the best rated batteries in a smart phone bar none, and Apple in general is tops in battery technology for these kinds of devices. Again, to casually mention it the way you do as if it's some kind of known and widespread problem is just wrong. There is no such problem with the iPhone battery. You misrepresent everything here and you do it on other posts over and over again. Either you are just not very skilled in communicating your ideas, or you are purposely trying to fudge the facts.

You can't just off-handedly say stuff and expect to be believed when you have nothing to back it up and a history of sputing such never-ending hyperbolic nonsense.
post #27 of 95
Since when did a sample size of 310 dictate reliable data?

NEW RESULTS: I surveyed 4 people in my office - 100% prefer iPhone!!! Amazing!
post #28 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof. Peabody View Post

I'm getting really tired of the way in which you just casually make stuff up and set it out as if it's fact. At best, you are a serial exaggerator.

I've been reading iPad coverage for days, everything I can get my hands on including in-depth reviews, hardware assessments etc. and I've never heard of any "overheating" problems. Certainly, the way you casually mention it as if it's a known and widespread thing is completely disingenuous.

Similarly, the iPhone battery is one of the best rated batteries in a smart phone bar none, and Apple in general is tops in battery technology for these kinds of devices. Again, to casually mention it the way you do as if it's some kind of known and widespread problem is just wrong. There is no such problem with the iPhone battery. You misrepresent everything here and you do it on other posts over and over again. Either you are just not very skilled in communicating your ideas, or you are purposely trying to fudge the facts.

You can't just off-handedly say stuff and expect to be believed when you have nothing to back it up and a history of sputing such never-ending hyperbolic nonsense.

But how else is he supposed to troll?

Anyway, is it just me or are Apple and Google running away with this market? It seems that Nokia has nothing exciting to offer, and RIM is still looking to milk their antiquated OS/hardware paradigm.
post #29 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

How would you have phrased it? More important, given the way it has been phrased, what do you think the results mean? Why are they 'loosey-goosely?'

If you don't know/can't say, move along.

I think Josh B. is right here, "best" is a remarkably broad term. I'm always slightly suspect of surveys where I can't see how the question was actually asked/phrased and where it was asked.

For example, did they take the survey at the exit of an Apple store? Odds are iPhone would come out well in a survey of people there! Stand outside the doors of the company where I work (where we are all handed Blackberries), RIM would probably come off pretty well.

Surveys are strange things!
post #30 of 95
bah, nevermind.
post #31 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Unless we see some new advancements in processors and batteries, I feel with the iPad (overheating, low wifi reception) and iPhone (low battery life) that Apple has pushed the present hardware to it's technical limits with features.

We may get new and improved iPhones soon, but I feel it won't be a radical change in new features unless the size increases a bit to accept a larger battery.

Apple has pressed the petal to the metal and there isn't any more...

Are you saying 2010 is the year advancements in consumer electronics finally come to a halt?
Gee, thanks for the heads up!
post #32 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josh.B. View Post

Your command is extremely nasty. Please never again tall (sic) me what to do.

Um.... (not the analyst): You just did. Nasty.
post #33 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

Why? Will your dad beat up his dad?

Chill.



For a man who's whole approach to posting yesterday seems to be aggressive name calling (Troll's if memory serves), he appears to have pretty thin skin!
post #34 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by FormerARSgm View Post

Since when did a sample size of 310 dictate reliable data?

NEW RESULTS: I surveyed 4 people in my office - 100% prefer iPhone!!! Amazing!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Josh.B. View Post

The low sample rate should yield a high error rate. Do we know what the claimed error rate is?

It would help to learn something about basic 'margin of error' calculations given sample size (it is not a command, just a wish).

310 is a decent number.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error
post #35 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson View Post



For a man who's whole approach to posting yesterday seems to be aggressive name calling (Troll's if memory serves), he appears to have pretty thin skin!

Meh, I erased that post. It wasn't too constructive.
post #36 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by Josh.B. View Post

I requested that he stop being nasty. I offered no threat as to consequences if he continues. Your question and my answer are both off-topic. I usually try to ignore trolls so as not to multiply their posts with responses, but sometimes I make a exception.

Please stay on-topic.

I erased the post.
post #37 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Did you make that up, or do you have a source/cite?

I could tell you the source, but there are kids in the room.
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post #38 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson View Post

76% of people know that.


And 48% predicted you would post that.
post #39 of 95
Here we go again.

Josh B, Spot On are about to poison the well.

Can't wait for Extreme and Harly to show up.
post #40 of 95
Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

Here we go again.

Josh B, Spot On are about to poison the well.

Can't wait for Extreme and Harly to show up.

Based on the tone, some of us believe they already have.

(That is, shown up and/or poisoned the well)
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