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Strong interest in Apple iPad expected to produce 7M first-year sales

post #1 of 42
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A new survey of 2,500 consumers found that a large number -- 21 percent -- are interested in purchasing an iPad, which has led one prominent analyst to project 7 million sales of Apple's new device in its first 12 months on the market.

The AlphaWise study released Wednesday by Morgan Stanley found that 4.6 percent of respondents indicated "extreme interest" in the iPad. Another 16.4 percent said they are "somewhat interested" in purchasing Apple's multi-touch device.

Based on these numbers, analyst Katy Huberty has forecast sales of 6 million units in 2010, and 7 million over the device's first 12 months of availability. She argued in a note to investors that the consensus forecast on Wall Street of 4 million to 5 million units is too conservative.

Still, most customers need to be sold on the concept of the iPad. The lion's share of respondents -- 65 percent -- said they are not interested at all in the iPad. In addition, 14 percent indicated they are "somewhat not interested."

The iPad also appeals to a wide range of customers, with the target market falling in the 25-34 age range. But users of all age groups are interested in the iPad, with people 35-44 taking 27 percent of interest, 45-54 garnering 22 percent, and 55-and-up with 17 percent. Almost half -- 47 percent -- of those interested in the iPad are high earners, making more than $90,000 a year.



Consumers who responded to the survey said the most common tasks they would use the iPad for are browsing and e-mail, a selection made by 90 percent of respondents. Another 67 percent said they would use it for multimedia consumption, 60 percent for print media consumption, and 57 percent for gaming.

Huberty also cautioned that cannibalization is a threat with the iPad, much like the iPhone has cut into sales of Apple's iPod. The survey found that the notebook market is most at risk, followed by the iPod touch and e-reader markets.



The survey also found that the average selling price for the iPad is $625, combined with more than $50 in accessories. The total $675 cost comes in higher than the previous $660 estimate Huberty had calculated.

Morgan Stanley has maintained its price target of $250 for AAPL stock, and continues to rate the company as "overweight."

RBC Capital Markets

Also Wednesday, analyst Mike Abramsky with RBC Capital Markets issued a note to investors in which he said Tuesday's MacBook Pro refresh only further solidifies Apple's iPad as the company's entry-level portable PC. He noted that Apple left its MacBook Pro pricing largely unchanged, which means the iPad is the only counter the Mac maker has for the growing netbook market.

"Apple is betting iPad's form factor, engineering, design and rich interactive content experience, with Apple's brand, can create and lead a new portable computing metaphor where Apple has first mover advantage (product, install base, content/apps momentum)," Abramsky wrote.



The analyst said he expects future versions of the iPad to add features that will increase its "allure and competitive differentiation," such as iPad-desktop connectivity, a camera, and cloud integration.

Like Huberty, Abramsky cautioned that there is a risk of cannibalization of the MacBook line with Apple's iPad as the device makes inroads in the netbook market. But if the iPad begins to address the global home PC market, which sells more than 150 million units a year, it carries even greater potential for Apple.
post #2 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

A new survey of 2,500 consumers found that a large number -- 21 percent -- are interested in purchasing an iPad...

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post #3 of 42
The UK site is now showing late May availability for the iPad with pre-orders from 10th May, whereas until yesterday it was showing late April availability. The 3G model is still showing as late April on the US store, and WiFi models are of course available, suggesting there's no technical problem with the hardware to fix. Presumably the added month of waiting is due to there being more demand than expected in the US, supporting perhaps the higher end estimates of sales
post #4 of 42
This is interesting, I wonder how the netbook market will be affected by this, I can just see folks showing off their iPads to netbook user's and possibly converting them on the spot
post #5 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by daijones View Post

The UK site is now showing late May availability for the iPad with pre-orders from 10th May, whereas until yesterday it was showing late April availability. The 3G model is still showing as late April on the US store, and WiFi models are of course available, suggesting there's no technical problem with the hardware to fix. Presumably the added month of waiting is due to there being more demand than expected in the US, supporting perhaps the higher end estimates of sales

Just wrote almost the same thing in another thread.

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

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Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply
post #6 of 42
This is a lot of sales for a product that some arrogant nutbags thought had no purpose or demographic.

This beast is selling faster than the iPhone.
post #7 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by daijones View Post

The UK site is now showing late May availability for the iPad with pre-orders from 10th May, whereas until yesterday it was showing late April availability. The 3G model is still showing as late April on the US store, and WiFi models are of course available, suggesting there's no technical problem with the hardware to fix. Presumably the added month of waiting is due to there being more demand than expected in the US, supporting perhaps the higher end estimates of sales

Of course there's no problem with the hardware. The firmware, and perhaps software, are desperately in need of an update to fix the WiFi issue.


There's no reason to think its a hardware problem, unless you were intentionally trying to spread more FUD.
post #8 of 42
For all the naysaying... every time someone sees my iPad they get very exciting and after playing with it a bit... they all say "I want one".
post #9 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

This is a lot of sales for a product that some arrogant nutbags thought had no purpose or demographic.

This beast is selling faster than the iPhone.

And this is before the 3G version.

Dang, and I was sooooo enjoying all of the blogs and posts around the Net about the iFail.

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply
post #10 of 42
The Morgan stanley figures may well be meaningless - You really need to compare those who would like to get one before having touched and tried one out, to the percentage who want to/have bought one after trying one out.
post #11 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

This is a lot of sales for a product that some arrogant nutbags thought had no purpose or demographic.

This beast is selling faster than the iPhone.

We need to remind ourseleves that the geek squads, the ones who pant over processor speeds, USB ports, etc., are the extremely tiny minority. They are very loud on fourms like AppleInsider and very indignant, hateful, and dismissive. The rest of us get to thinking they might be on to something because of the shear numbers of negative posts. We need to start ignoring these posers. Their track record is dismal and they serve no useful purpose other than to annoy and pontificate their ignorance. Yesterday this poser crowd was very active on the various Mac sites viciously attacking the new MacBook updates.

And what is the geek squad response to the intitial success of the iPad? Do we even need to speculate? Nope. Their response is that the rest of us are just stupid sheep. That's all they can up with?
post #12 of 42
Quote:
14% "Somewhat not interested"

post #13 of 42
Just to get it out of the way, before the trollers get there: did you see the size of the yellow chunk in the first pie chart!?

Apple is (totally) doomed!
post #14 of 42
"A magical and revolutionary product at an unbelievable price."

So unbelievable that Apple doesn't want to reveal it.

I don't know how these analysts can make predictions until Apple tells us what international iPad pricing will be.
post #15 of 42
On cannibalization, for me it is looking like $1345 for a new mini plus $830 for an ipad. Cheaper than either a 27" iMac (decked out) or a 15" MBP at around $2600. This will replace my 17" Core Duo MBP.

The Mac pricing needs to come down a notch to keep this from becomming a dangerous trend for Apple long-term. For most consumers a beige box and an ipad will give the portability, but reduce Apple's $ share of the business. At least that is what I see.
post #16 of 42
Patiently waiting in Japan...

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply
post #17 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

On cannibalization, for me it is looking like $1345 for a new mini plus $830 for an ipad. Cheaper than either a 27" iMac (decked out) or a 15" MBP at around $2600. This will replace my 17" Core Duo MBP.

The Mac pricing needs to come down a notch to keep this from becomming a dangerous trend for Apple long-term. For most consumers a beige box and an ipad will give the portability, but reduce Apple's $ share of the business. At least that is what I see.

I think the iPad will spur interest in Mac. They slipped iWork (lite, but iWork) onto it to attract business people. Once they start enjoying an Apple product at work, well...

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply

 

Your = the possessive of you, as in, "Your name is Tom, right?" or "What is your name?"

 

You're = a contraction of YOU + ARE as in, "You are right" --> "You're right."

 

 

Reply
post #18 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergermeister View Post

...They slipped iWork (lite, but iWork) onto it to attract business people...

Any major differences?
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post #19 of 42
Although a bit on the rarified air side, I'm going with the earlier 5 mil sold for the year. Someone wake me when Huberty gets something right.

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GOA

 

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

Reply
post #20 of 42
Huberty is crushingly inaccurate. Why does AppleInsider continue to quote her, Gartner, Munster, Wu, Enderle, etc.? Their predictions are consistently off.

Abramsky's okay. You can continue mentioning him for the time being, but no one should be listening to Katy Huberty.
post #21 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by zindako View Post

This is interesting, I wonder how the netbook market will be affected by this, I can just see folks showing off their iPads to netbook user's and possibly converting them on the spot

I think the hidden market for iPad technology is all the people with a clunky PC they use for nothing else but web and mail and have to replace every two or three years as the cost of a nerd to fix it excededs the cost of replacement. As they start seeing iPads in the wild the light bulb will go on. If Apple add the features of iPhone OS 4 and good printing over wifi from any application it is a slam dunk for these users. Perhaps there is already a larger iPad in the works for this market? This market segment hasn't even started yet.
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Use duckduckgo.com with Safari, not Google Search
Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
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post #22 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

We need to remind ourseleves that the geek squads, the ones who pant over processor speeds, USB ports, etc., are the extremely tiny minority. They are very loud on fourms like AppleInsider and very indignant, hateful, and dismissive. The rest of us get to thinking they might be on to something because of the shear numbers of negative posts. We need to start ignoring these posers. Their track record is dismal and they serve no useful purpose other than to annoy and pontificate their ignorance. Yesterday this poser crowd was very active on the various Mac sites viciously attacking the new MacBook updates.

And what is the geek squad response to the intitial success of the iPad? Do we even need to speculate? Nope. Their response is that the rest of us are just stupid sheep. That's all they can up with?

You know whats amazing? Every forum, everywhere, has this type of crowd. Regardless of topic. With technology and gadgets, we call them the SPEC hounds, or tech geeks.

On Fan sites for books or movies, or bands, there is the same crowd. People that are there to b*tch, and nothing else. They take negativity to a new level, and try to make it seem as if their feelings are widespread.
post #23 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

We need to remind ourseleves that the geek squads, the ones who pant over processor speeds, USB ports, etc., are the extremely tiny minority. They are very loud on fourms like AppleInsider and very indignant, hateful, and dismissive. The rest of us get to thinking they might be on to something because of the shear numbers of negative posts. We need to start ignoring these posers. Their track record is dismal and they serve no useful purpose other than to annoy and pontificate their ignorance. Yesterday this poser crowd was very active on the various Mac sites viciously attacking the new MacBook updates.

And what is the geek squad response to the intitial success of the iPad? Do we even need to speculate? Nope. Their response is that the rest of us are just stupid sheep. That's all they can up with?

This article says it all: http://adage.com/mediaworks/article?article_id=143200
post #24 of 42
Don't get me wrong, I'm not an iPad hater, but I don't see Apple selling seven million of these in the first year.
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post #25 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

We need to remind ourseleves that the geek squads, the ones who pant over processor speeds, USB ports, etc., are the extremely tiny minority. They are very loud on fourms like AppleInsider and very indignant, hateful, and dismissive. The rest of us get to thinking they might be on to something because of the shear numbers of negative posts. We need to start ignoring these posers. Their track record is dismal and they serve no useful purpose other than to annoy and pontificate their ignorance. Yesterday this poser crowd was very active on the various Mac sites viciously attacking the new MacBook updates.

This is very true statement. I was just recently listening to an Engadget podcast from around the time the iPad was introduced and Nilay Patel, one of their editors, made a very spot-on observation. He likened all the vitriol coming from the geek squad, to the reaction the Wii got when it was first introduced. And look at how that turned out

A very astute comparison, I thought.

Down here in Delaware, every Best Buy is sold out.
post #26 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by icyfog View Post

Don't get me wrong, I'm not an iPad hater, but I don't see Apple selling seven million of these in the first year.

They delivered over 500,000 in one week, and that's not including all pre-orders (since some pre-orders were delayed a week). Judging by this pace Apple will have most likely delivered 1 million in its first three weeks, and that's without the 3G version. And US only. IMHO 6 million in calendar year 2010 sounds totally reasonable, maybe even conservative.
post #27 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

A new survey of 2,500 consumers found that a large number -- 21 percent -- are interested in purchasing an iPad, which has led one prominent analyst to project 7 million sales of Apple's new device in its first 12 months on the market.

The AlphaWise study released Wednesday by Morgan Stanley found that 4.6 percent of respondents indicated "extreme interest" in the iPad. Another 16.4 percent said they are "somewhat interested" in purchasing Apple's multi-touch device.

Based on these numbers, analyst Katy Huberty has forecast sales of 6 million units in 2010, and 7 million over the device's first 12 months of availability. She argued in a note to investors that the consensus forecast on Wall Street of 4 million to 5 million units is too conservative.

Still, most customers need to be sold on the concept of the iPad. The lion's share of respondents -- 65 percent -- said they are not interested at all in the iPad. In addition, 14 percent indicated they are "somewhat not interested."

The iPad also appeals to a wide range of customers, with the target market falling in the 25-34 age range. But users of all age groups are interested in the iPad, with people 35-44 taking 27 percent of interest, 45-54 garnering 22 percent, and 55-and-up with 17 percent. Almost half -- 47 percent -- of those interested in the iPad are high earners, making more than $90,000 a year.



Consumers who responded to the survey said the most common tasks they would use the iPad for are browsing and e-mail, a selection made by 90 percent of respondents. Another 67 percent said they would use it for multimedia consumption, 60 percent for print media consumption, and 57 percent for gaming.

Huberty also cautioned that cannibalization is a threat with the iPad, much like the iPhone has cut into sales of Apple's iPod. The survey found that the notebook market is most at risk, followed by the iPod touch and e-reader markets.



The survey also found that the average selling price for the iPad is $625, combined with more than $50 in accessories. The total $675 cost comes in higher than the previous $660 estimate Huberty had calculated.

Morgan Stanley has maintained its price target of $250 for AAPL stock, and continues to rate the company as "overweight."

RBC Capital Markets

Also Wednesday, analyst Mike Abramsky with RBC Capital Markets issued a note to investors in which he said Tuesday's MacBook Pro refresh only further solidifies Apple's iPad as the company's entry-level portable PC. He noted that Apple left its MacBook Pro pricing largely unchanged, which means the iPad is the only counter the Mac maker has for the growing netbook market.

"Apple is betting iPad's form factor, engineering, design and rich interactive content experience, with Apple's brand, can create and lead a new portable computing metaphor where Apple has first mover advantage (product, install base, content/apps momentum)," Abramsky wrote.



The analyst said he expects future versions of the iPad to add features that will increase its "allure and competitive differentiation," such as iPad-desktop connectivity, a camera, and cloud integration.

Like Huberty, Abramsky cautioned that there is a risk of cannibalization of the MacBook line with Apple's iPad as the device makes inroads in the netbook market. But if the iPad begins to address the global home PC market, which sells more than 150 million units a year, it carries even greater potential for Apple.






The best thing about Huberty's research is that 44% of consumers are interested in buying the 3G version. Since we know that 500K wi-fi models have sold this implies that 392K additional 3G units have been ordered. This of course assumes that Huberty's 44% holds true but you can obviously adjust accordingly. Bottom line - Apple has sold or has orders for roughly 900K iPads at this point in time. In 10 days that is an absolutely unbelieve number.
post #28 of 42
These numbers are great, but I think demand will slack off once the iPad saturates the initial demand.
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post #29 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergermeister View Post

Patiently waiting in Japan...

Do you think Japanese consumers will take to the iPad?
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #30 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Takeo View Post

For all the naysaying... every time someone sees my iPad they get very exciting and after playing with it a bit... they all say "I want one".

That's much the same as my experince until they find out how much it cost, and the US 250.00 (plus) I've invested in apps, games, and books to give it the functionality mine currently has.

Once the price drops to around US 400.00 for the 32gb, things might look more appealing to the average consumer, but for now, a starting price of US 500.00 for a mere 16gb with limited built-in functionality, can be a serious deterrent, especially in these difficult economic times.
"Why iPhone"... Hmmm?
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"Why iPhone"... Hmmm?
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post #31 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergermeister View Post

Patiently waiting in Japan...

I just sent two 32gb iPads to a couple of my military buddies stationed in Okinawa, they're very excited to show them off.
"Why iPhone"... Hmmm?
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"Why iPhone"... Hmmm?
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post #32 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by icyfog View Post

These numbers are great, but I think demand will slack off once the iPad saturates the initial demand.

So you are predicting that the iPad will be a failure?
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #33 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by icyfog View Post

These numbers are great, but I think demand will slack off once the iPad saturates the initial demand.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

So you are predicting that the iPad will be a failure?

Just take a gander at his previous posts. Yes, he is predicting the iPad will be a failure.
post #34 of 42
I may be crazy, but I'm still calling > 10 million in calendar year 2010 (ie. 3 quarters of sales).
post #35 of 42
"The analyst said he expects future versions of the iPad to add features that will increase its "allure and competitive differentiation," such as iPad-desktop connectivity, a camera, and cloud integration."

It already has "cloud integration" - MobileMe.
post #36 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by icyfog View Post

These numbers are great, but I think demand will slack off once the iPad saturates the initial demand.



You mean like with iPhones, iPods and Macs?
post #37 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by rtamesis View Post

This article says it all: http://adage.com/mediaworks/article?article_id=143200

That's a good article - thanks for the link.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesTheLesser View Post

This is very true statement. I was just recently listening to an Engadget podcast from around the time the iPad was introduced and Nilay Patel, one of their editors, made a very spot-on observation. He likened all the vitriol coming from the geek squad, to the reaction the Wii got when it was first introduced. And look at how that turned out

A very astute comparison, I thought.

Down here in Delaware, every Best Buy is sold out.

The Wii comparison is excellent. The geeks just don't get the fact that as computer technology is maturing in the consumer space, statistics and numbers matter less and less, what matters is whether it is fun, and whether it is easy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by icyfog View Post

These numbers are great, but I think demand will slack off once the iPad saturates the initial demand.

Really? You think that demand goes down after initial surges following a product launch? Wow, what an amazing thought - you should become an economic adviser or something since you're so astute at these matters. /SARCASM
post #38 of 42
4.5 m sales in 2010:

Q2: 1.4m sales
Q3: 0.9m sales
Q4: 2.2m sales after either price drop or model refresh or both

In Oct, Apple will rearrange the models down to 3 or 4, with possibly a new high-end and a price shift. Something like 16 GB WiFi at $399, 16 GB 3G at $499, 64 GB 3G at $599, and 128 GB 3G + Webcam at $799. Maybe even an A4 refresh in the top-end model with something like 1.3 GHz + 512 MB RAM.

Either that or the iPod/iPhone refresh won't have much of a storage update. The iPhone could go to 64 GB and the iPod could go to 128 GB. Both will get an A4 update. I find it hard to believe Apple will leave the iPad alone for the holiday quarter with lessor specs and cheaper than the iPad.
post #39 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post


Why does AppleInsider continue to quote her, Gartner, Munster, Wu, Enderle, etc.?

In order to sell advertising.
post #40 of 42
I brought my iPad to the office three times already because people wanted to see my iPad.

I ended up doing a demo for a bunch of people
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