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Apple stock projected to hit $300 on strength of iPhone, Mac sales

post #1 of 71
Thread Starter 
Less than a week ahead of Apple's quarterly earnings report, two analysts increased their price target for the company's stock -- one to $299 and the other to $300.

Piper Jaffray

Though Apple's earnings won't be reported until April 20, the company tipped its hand last week when it revealed that it has shipped more than 50 million iPhones. That means that Apple sold at least 6.9 million iPhones in the March quarter, and likely many more.

Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said Wednesday that he remains confident in his estimate of 7.5 million iPhones for the first quarter of calendar 2010. If Apple's "more than 50 million" total actually means 51 million, that would imply sales of 7.8 million iPhones in the March quarter.

Munster's estimate of 7.5 million would represent 93 percent year-over-year growth in iPhone sales. That's consistent with the 90 percent increase Apple saw last quarter.



Munster has also raised his estimate for Mac sales in the quarter to 2.9 million, up from 2.6 million. The analyst cited NPD data, which shows that retail sales of Macs are tracking up 39 percent year over year.

Munster expects Apple's stock to hit $299 in the next year -- up from his previous forecast of $287. Piper Jaffray has also maintained its overweight rating for AAPL stock.

Caris & Company

Analyst Robert Cihra expects Apple's stock to go a dollar higher than Munster, with a formal prediction of $300 issued to investors Wednesday. That's up from Cihra's previous price target of $260.

Cihra expects to see revenue of $12.5 billion and earnings per share of $2.70 when Apple reports its second financial quarter earnings next week. Those numbers are driven by an estimated 7.5 million iPhone sales, 3.1 million Mac sales and 41 percent gross margin.

Cihra has also increased his iPad sales estimates to 5.5 million in the 2010 calendar year, up from his prior prediction of 4.5 million. Cihra also expects the iPad to cannibalize iPod touch units, but at two to three times the average selling price, the iPad will produce three to four times more gross profit per unit.
post #2 of 71
Oh, Apple. Is there anything you can't do? Sigh...

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #3 of 71
Hey Steve, split the stock!

Thanks!
post #4 of 71
I told my dad to buy Apple stock when the first ipods came out lol. I always remind him of that.

Anyone here buy in at that point? I bet you're fat and happy now
post #5 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

I told my dad to buy Apple stock when the first ipods came out lol. I always remind him of that.

Anyone here buy in at that point? I bet you're fat and happy now

Very happy! I bought in well before that. Profits on AAPL have more than paid for all the Apple products I have purchased.
post #6 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

I told my dad to buy Apple stock when the first ipods came out lol. I always remind him of that.

Anyone here buy in at that point? I bet you're fat and happy now

I also bought 1000 shares back in 2004 when the stock price was $28. AAPL has split 2for1 since them making my effective cost $14 each. You do the Math!
post #7 of 71
I think Apple will hit 450 some day.

iLogic
post #8 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanH View Post

I also bought 1000 shares back in 2004 when the stock price was $28. AAPL has split 2for1 since them making my effective cost $14 each. You do the Math!

Nice. Way back when I had a 4400. The cheapest ugliest Apple computer ever. SJ was with Next and Apple was reduced to turning out cheapness. The only thing reported on Apple in those days was their imminent collapse. Every article started with 'the beleaguered Apple'. Yet I remember reading that in spite of all the gloom there were some 20 mil Mac users out there and I thought that with that kind of user base there was no way they would lie down and just die. If I'd had a few grand to spare I would have bought in then but I didn't so I didn't. I should have taken a loan!
post #9 of 71
Got 1000 AAPL when it was $44. I'm happy. Also, a year ago Jan I was sitting at the kitchen table going through the mail. There were several of those "0% Interest For 12 Months" credit card offers, totaling $55,000. Since AAPL was below $100 and I KNEW it couldn't do anything but go up from there, I cashed em all in and bought. Sold it a year later for over twice what I paid. Thanks, Capital One!
post #10 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanH View Post

I also bought 1000 shares back in 2004 when the stock price was $28. AAPL has split 2for1 since them making my effective cost $14 each. You do the Math!

Did the math. I think you fit into the fat and happy category.
post #11 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

Hey Steve, split the stock!

Thanks!

Will not happen, Apple has made it very clear they will not dilute the stock anymore if anything they may buy some back to continue to drive up share price.
post #12 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanH View Post

I also bought 1000 shares back in 2004 when the stock price was $28. AAPL has split 2for1 since them making my effective cost $14 each. You do the Math!

But did you hold, or did you ever sell?

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #13 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

I told my dad to buy Apple stock when the first ipods came out lol. I always remind him of that.

Anyone here buy in at that point? I bet you're fat and happy now

I bought a thousand shares at $24.66, pre-split. Now have 2000 shares at a cost basis of $12.33 each. very happy.

Thompson
post #14 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post

Will not happen, Apple has made it very clear they will not dilute the stock anymore if anything they may buy some back to continue to drive up share price.

A split is not a dilution. In fact, it's nothing but a meaningless numbers game.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

But did you hold, or did you ever sell?

I won't say how much I hold, but put it this way: I placed what seemed like a fairly modest bet on AAPL in 1997. I still hold those shares (having bought and sold others since). My cost basis on the original purchase is under $4.00 a share. Some day I am going to owe the Tax Man a ton.
Please don't be insane.
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post #15 of 71
I bought in at $80 right after the big market crash in 2008... I was feeling pretty smug until I read about you guys... $14? $4??? Wow.
post #16 of 71
I don't think $300 is a very good estimate. $350 seems more appropriate. And that seems quite attainable by this year end.

Have more than $400000 riding on AAPL
post #17 of 71
I love aapl. It makes me happy
post #18 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

Hey Steve, split the stock!

Thanks!

Yes! Then get it to 500 after the split within two years please so I can retire happy.
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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post #19 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

A split is not a dilution. In fact, it's nothing but a meaningless numbers game.



I won't say how much I hold, but put it this way: I placed what seemed like a fairly modest bet on AAPL in 1997. I still hold those shares (having bought and sold others since). My cost basis on the original purchase is under $4.00 a share. Some day I am going to owe the Tax Man a ton.

Well done there. I did it in 2000. I would love to see a massive tax bill one day too
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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post #20 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post

Will not happen, Apple has made it very clear they will not dilute the stock anymore if anything they may buy some back to continue to drive up share price.

OK, whatever works

... hey what's with my post increments counter?

p.s. I hate those aggregated responses hence I use individual ones to different folks. It doesn't waste paper people
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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post #21 of 71
Just wait until they announce plans for the new data center they are building in N.C. Then see what the stock will do!
post #22 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmmx View Post

Just wait until they announce plans for the new data center they are building in N.C. Then see what the stock will do!

What is the latest skinny on its use? Cloud technology, Google maps replacement?
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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post #23 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Some day I am going to owe the Tax Man a ton.

Why don't you just sell this year, stay out a month, then buy back in?

The capital gains tax rate is at an all-time low (thank you Dubya), and will go up next year. Just a thought.
post #24 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by jakeb View Post

I bought in at $80 right after the big market crash in 2008... I was feeling pretty smug until I read about you guys... $14? $4??? Wow.

Your move required more nerve than my investment did, considering the state of the markets and the forecasts for the economy at the time. When I bought in, I figured the downside risk was fairly small, given that Apple was considered to be a potential takeover target and otherwise the economy was in decent shape.

Not that the broker who made the trade for me didn't think I was sort of nuts. Of course now he thinks I'm some kind of investment genius, which I happily deny. The really funny part is, all these years I've been asking him if he bought some AAPL for his portfolio. He always answers the same way: "I wish I had."

Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Well done there. I did it in 2000. I would love to see a massive tax bill one day too

If you're going to have a problem, then this is a good one to have.
Please don't be insane.
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post #25 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmmx View Post

Just wait until they announce plans for the new data center they are building in N.C. Then see what the stock will do!
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

What is the latest skinny on its use? Cloud technology, Google maps replacement?

No one knows. Apple doesn't disclose such details about its operations nor facilities. We may never really know.

Apple does not gain any competitive advantage by disclosing such matters (actually, it could be seen as a detriment and/or security risk).

The only time Apple really talks about facilities is when they are talking about a retail store.
post #26 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

Why don't you just sell this year, stay out a month, then buy back in?

The capital gains tax rate is at an all-time low (thank you Dubya), and will go up next year. Just a thought.

You mean, try to become a market timer? No way. Even the pros can't pull that off with any consistency. I'm not really concerned about the capital gains rate -- it's not a good basis for making investment decisions anyway. I will probably sell some of my AAPL this year but for no other reason than my portfolio is laughably out of balance, and I am considering other investments such as real estate.
Please don't be insane.
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post #27 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

You mean, try to become a market timer? No way. Even the pros can't pull that off with any consistency. I'm not really concerned about the capital gains rate -- it's not a good basis for making investment decisions anyway. I will probably sell some of my AAPL this year but for no other reason than my portfolio is laughably out of balance, and I am considering other investments such as real estate.

No, not implying to try become a market timer. If the capital gains tax rate isn't going to be a benefit, then forget it. As you mentioned, diversifying your portfolio is a reasonable justification to sell though.

It has been one fine ride, for sure.
post #28 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

A split is not a dilution. In fact, it's nothing but a meaningless numbers game.

On face value, yes.

But it also allows smaller investors an opportunity to buy in.
Pity the agnostic dyslectic. They spend all their time contemplating the existence of dog.
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Pity the agnostic dyslectic. They spend all their time contemplating the existence of dog.
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post #29 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

No, not implying to try become a market timer. If the capital gains tax rate isn't going to be a benefit, then forget it. As you mentioned, diversifying your portfolio is a reasonable justification to sell though.

It has been one fine ride, for sure.

It's been a crazy ride too. I also remember the bottom falling out twice, all too well.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #30 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmmx View Post

Just wait until they announce plans for the new data center they are building in N.C. Then see what the stock will do!

It's under construction, so that already may be factored into the current price at least to some extent. See this link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDXSSi1qStA

The variables will be how quickly they ramp it up and how much utilization they get. All that expected iAd, iBooks and iTunes video activity will have to be handled somewhere.

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post #31 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by justflybob View Post

On face value, yes.

But it also allows smaller investors an opportunity to buy in.

Correct.

It doesn't affect the institutional investor (they hold over 70% of AAPL shares). 4 shares of $60 stock = 1 share of $240 stock.

However, there is a psychological effect on some retail investors (the Aunt Millie types). They perceive the less expensive shares to be more affordable. It's not logical, but human beings are emotional creatures.
post #32 of 71
If the construction of the data center is going to impact share price, it will be if anything on the downside, since this will show on the balance sheet as an expense. Any revenues derived from this investment are probably years off.
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post #33 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

I told my dad to buy Apple stock when the first ipods came out lol. I always remind him of that.

Anyone here buy in at that point? I bet you're fat and happy now

2005, but I've been off and on 3 times....simply amazing. Apple has become so popular, I almost feel like a windows user.
In a world of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
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In a world of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.
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post #34 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by ilogic View Post

I think Apple will hit 450 some day.

iLogic

Hmmm..... that would give the company a ~$410B market cap. Making it the most valuable company in the US. (Only two companies exceed Apple's market value at the moment: Exxon-Mobil with ~$325B and MSFT with ~$270B).

Maybe I'll start to worry then.....\
post #35 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

Correct.

It doesn't affect the institutional investor (they hold over 70% of AAPL shares). 4 shares of $60 stock = 1 share of $240 stock.

However, there is a psychological effect on some retail investors (the Aunt Millie types). They perceive the less expensive shares to be more affordable. It's not logical, but human beings are emotional creatures.

This conclusion is incorrect, even by your own reasoning. The impact of "Aunt Millie" investors on the share price is substantially close to nil because "Aunt Millie" investors are an extremely small segment of the overall market. Anyone who believes that they getting more for their money buying twice the number of shares at half the price does not even qualify as an amateur investor, they are a witless investor.

Splits made sense when trading "odd lots" of shares (lots less than 100 or multiples of 100) was more costly. With the advent of electronic trading, this distinction has vanished, and so has the importance of stock splits. Even marginally informed investors know that they are meaningless.
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post #36 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

If the construction of the data center is going to impact share price, it will be if anything on the downside, since this will show on the balance sheet as an expense. Any revenues derived from this investment are probably years off.

On the cash flow statement as investment versus revenues. On the balance sheet as an asset - cash is being exchanged for physical plant. What I think you're driving at is ROI - whether the data center's return on investment exceeds Apple's hurdle rate or return for its investments in general - whether in plant, new products or seeking return on its cash. Given that the U.S. debt levels may create severe adverse currency shifts in the years ahead, it would be prudent to park a considerable amount of Apple's cash overseas.

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post #37 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kibitzer View Post

On the income statement as investment expense versus current revenues. On the balance sheet as an asset - cash is being exchanged for physical plant.

Sure, but that goes into book value, and investors hardly care about book value. Investors care about revenues and EPS growth. I'm not saying that building the data center is not a good investment for Apple, but that investors aren't going to get excited when they "find out" about it (if only because this has been known for something close to a year now). What will excite investors is Apple showing that whatever the data center does is something that drives profits. We don't even know what the data center is for yet.
Please don't be insane.
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post #38 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanH View Post

I also bought 1000 shares back in 2004 when the stock price was $28. AAPL has split 2for1 since them making my effective cost $14 each. You do the Math!

I bought 400 shares back in about '97. With spits I had 1600 shares. Idiot financial advisor talked me into selling a bulk of my position since it grew to over 30 or 40% of my IRA - moron that I am I sold much of my stock

Since then I've bought back in @ about 78, 79, 80, 120, 140 and 170. It will be a much tougher sell by a financial analyst to get me to sell my AAPL next time. idiots
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just waiting to be included in one of Apple's target markets.
Don't get me wrong, I like the flat panel iMac, actually own an iMac, and I like the Mac mini, but...........
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post #39 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamraj View Post

I don't think $300 is a very good estimate. $350 seems more appropriate. And that seems quite attainable by this year end.

Have more than $400000 riding on AAPL

Whoah. You got me beat by a loooooooong shot. Nice move.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #40 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

I placed what seemed like a fairly modest bet on AAPL in 1997. I still hold those shares (having bought and sold others since). My cost basis on the original purchase is under $4.00 a share. Some day I am going to owe the Tax Man a ton.

How did that work? When you buy and sell stock it's a first-in, first-out calculation. So if you have been buying and selling AAPL after your original investment, you were actually selling the stock you originally bought at $4, not "newer" stock at a higher cost basis... unless I misunderstand your comment.

At any rate, $4 was an amazing time to get in... congratulations!

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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