or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › General › General Discussion › Mac sales momentum predicted to push Apple stock to $305
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Mac sales momentum predicted to push Apple stock to $305

post #1 of 26
Thread Starter 
Apple's astounding gains on Wall Street are expected to continue, with a second consecutive quarter of more than 30 percent year-over-year Mac sales growth predicted to help push the company's stock to $305.

In a note to investors issued Monday morning, analyst Shaw Wu with Kaufman Bros. formally raised his price target for AAPL stock to $305, up from $295. He also increased his estimates for the March quarter, projecting $12 billion in revenue and $2.50 earnings per share, up from previous estimates of $11.6 billion in revenue and $2.31 EPS.

Weeks ago, Wu also increased his forecast for iPhone sales, up to 7 million handsets in the March quarter. Like many other analysts, he upped his prediction after Apple co-founder Steve Jobs revealed at the iPhone OS 4 unveiling that his company has shipped more than 50 million iPhones to date.

Sources have also indicated to Wu that Mac sales were particularly strong during the quarter, with the analyst expecting year-over-year growth of more than 30 percent. He said strong sales will be based on broad adoption in both the U.S. and abroad.

A potential peek at Mac sales came from new estimates last week. Research firm Gartner released new data that said Apple was the fifth-largest computer maker in the U.S. for the first quarter of calendar 2010, shipping an estimated 1.398 million Macs stateside. Competing firm IDC had a lower estimate for Apple, with 1.13 million Macs estimated shipped in that period.

For the three-month period ending in March, Wu has predicted Apple shipped 2.9 million Macs globally, 9.5 million iPods and 150,000 iPads in preparation for the device's April 3 launch date. Last week Apple revealed that the iPad sold more than 500,000 units in its first week, though those sales came after the March quarter had concluded.

Apple is set to announce its earnings after the market closes on Tuesday, and Wu said he believes the Cupertino, Calif., company's guidance for investors could be less conservative than usual. Wu said he still believes Apple will give its "vintage conservative" guidance, consistent with low numbers given in seven out of the last eight quarters. But he said Apple's guidance could be slightly more optimistic due to the strong start of the iPad, as well as last week's MacBook Pro refresh, adding Intel Core i7 and Core i5 processors to the top-end professional notebooks. Wu has modeled $13 billion in revenue for the June quarter, with $2.69 in earnings per share, both above Wall Street consensus of $12.9 billion and $2.68 EPS.

"We continue to believe that AAPL is positioned to outperform in this tough macroeconomic environment with its defensible strategic and structural advantages and its vertical integration," he wrote.
post #2 of 26
defensible strategic and structural advantages and its vertical integration

That last bit there is what makes the whole show.
post #3 of 26
Boy... he isn't much of an account, is he? How can Apple realize sales of 150k pre-orders if they didn't ship in the quarter?

Personally, I am most curious about iPhone sales for Q2; I'm hoping for 8.05MM.
post #4 of 26
Are these analysts ever correct?
post #5 of 26
To buy or not to buy that's the question. I'm usually bang on with my aapl buying and selling predictions but i can't pin down how the markets are going to react tomorrow, could swing either way... hmmm....

I pulled out at $250 expecting a bigger drop already, but I hate not owning aapl so might just buy in again and be happy with what I have.
post #6 of 26
Apple has always been a buy, your knowledge on stocks is horrible

Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post

To buy or not to buy that's the question. I'm usually bang on with my aapl buying and selling predictions but i can't pin down how the markets are going to react tomorrow, could swing either way... hmmm....

I pulled out at $250 expecting a bigger drop already, but I hate not owning aapl so might just buy in again and be happy with what I have.
post #7 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by WilliamG View Post

Are these analysts ever correct?

The street refers to the more accurate ones as star analysts.

Marshall, Abramsky, and Hargreaves are considered star analysts. Shaw Wu is not.
post #8 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post

To buy or not to buy that's the question. I'm usually bang on with my aapl buying and selling predictions but i can't pin down how the markets are going to react tomorrow, could swing either way... hmmm....

I pulled out at $250 expecting a bigger drop already, but I hate not owning aapl so might just buy in again and be happy with what I have.

If you want to get back in at this price, you might have some luck buying call options (or you might lose your money - do some research first if you haven't traded options before).
post #9 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by kyle172 View Post

Apple has always been a buy, your knowledge on stocks is horrible

If I can spot a trend I'm gonna capitalise on it! And make more money than letting it sit there. I'm sorry that you are incapable of perceiving the obvious, but I do not share that infliction.
post #10 of 26
mr. Inflation. I'd predict $400!
post #11 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post

To buy or not to buy that's the question. I'm usually bang on with my aapl buying and selling predictions but i can't pin down how the markets are going to react tomorrow, could swing either way... hmmm....

I pulled out at $250 expecting a bigger drop already, but I hate not owning aapl so might just buy in again and be happy with what I have.

History says sell before earnings. I doubt AAPL will pull a GOOG, but I am hoping to get another block at $238 on Wednesday. Conservative strategy is to sell half before earnings.

The only thing I have been selling is my 2011 LEAPS to shift everything into 2012.

Long term, it doesn't really matter though.
post #12 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

Boy... he isn't much of an account, is he? How can Apple realize sales of 150k pre-orders if they didn't ship in the quarter?

My credit card was charged in March, and I presume others who preordered also were.

Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

History says sell before earnings. I doubt AAPL will pull a GOOG, but I am hoping to get another block at $238 on Wednesday. Conservative strategy is to sell half before earnings.

The only thing I have been selling is my 2011 LEAPS to shift everything into 2012.

Long term, it doesn't really matter though.

History says that market timers get burned more often than not. The conservative strategy is to buy and hold stocks if you think they are good investments.
Please don't be insane.
Reply
Please don't be insane.
Reply
post #13 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

History says sell before earnings.

Thats the thing, aapl is behaving less and less as history suggests it should recently. To the point where I'm unusually at a loss to predict tomorrows outcome.
post #14 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

My credit card was charged in March, and I presume others who preordered also were.

Charged on the date of pre-order, or when it shipped from China?

Does Apple's quarter end last Saturday or last day of the month?

Well, I guess that is another nickle for earnings.
post #15 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post

Thats the thing, aapl is behaving less and less as history suggests it should recently. To the point where I'm unusually at a loss to predict tomorrows outcome.

Exactly, more often than not, you can't predict. Which is why market timing is for suckers. In many years of investing, and 13 years in AAPL alone, the only micro-trend prediction I've been able make with any success is that if Apple doesn't beat the street's consensus earnings by at least 10%, then the stock will decline in the short term. This happens most, but not all, of the time. And of course trying to predict whether they will beat consensus by 10% or better is mainly guesswork. Investing is gambling enough all by itself. Trying to improve your odds with layers of guesswork turns investing into a lottery.
Please don't be insane.
Reply
Please don't be insane.
Reply
post #16 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

Charged on the date of pre-order, or when it shipped from China?

Does Apple's quarter end last Saturday or last day of the month?

Well, I guess that is another nickle for earnings.

The posting date for my card is 3-17. Nobody really knows on what date the iPads shipped, but I'm not sure it matters.
Please don't be insane.
Reply
Please don't be insane.
Reply
post #17 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Trying to improve your odds with layers of guesswork turns investing into a lottery.

No guesswork in the risks I take (usually), my actions are based on 20 years of watching aapl.

To say "History says that market timers get burned more often than not." is like saying "most participants in 100 meter sprint are losers" which is true, but for a few, the potential rewards are worth it.


Meanwhile with aapl now on $243.10 my sale at $250 is looking better and better
post #18 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

My credit card was charged in March, and I presume others who preordered also were.

You should not be charged anything until it actually ships.
You may get a $1 "hold' placed on the card to verfiy it is a good card number but that is usually removed within 24 hours.
post #19 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post

No guesswork in the risks I take (usually), my actions are based on 20 years of watching aapl.

To say "History says that market timers get burned more often than not." is like saying "most participants in 100 meter sprint are losers" which is true, but for a few, the potential rewards are worth it.


Meanwhile with aapl now on $243.10 my sale at $250 is looking better and better

It's not the same thing at all. Even the vast majority of the pros can't time stocks successfully over the long haul. This is a statistical fact. It's not just about selling at a good time, it's also when you buy back in. You cannot properly evaluate your market timing unless you compare it to what would have happened if you'd simply bought and held through your buying and selling. Most people don't do that, so they can convince themselves that their timing worked to their benefit. Almost certainly it has not.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris_CA View Post

You should not be charged anything until it actually ships.
You may get a $1 "hold' placed on the card to verfiy it is a good card number but that is usually removed within 24 hours.

It's not a hold. That is the date when my card was charged for the full cost of my preorder. I don't think the charge appeared on my bill until the order was shipped about a week later, but the posting date shows as 3-17, which might have been a back-dating. Either way, Apple gets to book the revenue in the current quarter.
Please don't be insane.
Reply
Please don't be insane.
Reply
post #20 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

The posting date for my card is 3-17. Nobody really knows on what date the iPads shipped, but I'm not sure it matters.

That is unusual. Apple usually doesn't charge the card until the item ships to the customer - and yours would not have shipped as early as 3-17.

The sale would count as revenue on the day it ships to the customer, NOT the day it is received. Since a large number of customers received theirs on 4-3 (3-4 for you Europeans), Apple could have had some iPad revenue in Q2. Not much, though, since preorders picked up at the Apple Stores would not be counted until the day they were picked up.

Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

Boy... he isn't much of an account, is he? How can Apple realize sales of 150k pre-orders if they didn't ship in the quarter?

Not true. The iPad sale would be counted on the day that they were shipped - which very well might have been March 31. Whether half of them shipped directly to the customer or not is just a guess - but probably a reasonable one.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
post #21 of 26
For the record i'm back in at $243.
post #22 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post

For the record i'm back in at $243.

I never got out, so they didn't have to keep bringing me back in.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #23 of 26
So the anal-yst increased his target price by 3.3%. Apple stocks moves that much in intra-day trading. Now if he increased his target by over 10%, that might be a story. Puhleeze, what a waste of time.
post #24 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by easy288 View Post

So the anal-yst increased his target price by 3.3%. Apple stocks moves that much in intra-day trading. Now if he increased his target by over 10%, that might be a story. Puhleeze, what a waste of time.

Believe it or not, analysts don't make their financial projections for your entertainment.
Please don't be insane.
Reply
Please don't be insane.
Reply
post #25 of 26
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Believe it or not, analysts don't make their financial projections for your entertainment.

Yet they never fail to entertain us.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #26 of 26
Here's the analyst scorecard, courtesy of Fortune. Consensus of 2.42 EPS and $12.04b in revenue.

Please don't be insane.
Reply
Please don't be insane.
Reply
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: General Discussion
AppleInsider › Forums › General › General Discussion › Mac sales momentum predicted to push Apple stock to $305