Notes of interest from Apple's Q2 2010 conference call - Page 2

Once upon a time... it was a safe bet that Apple was strictly a 'buy on rumor/speculation' and then 'sell on news' since the buyers felt the stock had little chance of continued upward movement once the NEWS hit. (since the buyers drove up the price to INCLUDE the 'news of tomorrow' and the drop was always considered a leveling off period where the 'suckers' who were banking on AAPL to go up ON the day of the keynote sold off when the stock didn't rise.

Why?

Well once upon a time Apple had what?

- Mac hardware sales and extended warrantees
- Software and OS sales (including .mac subscriptions)
- Enterprise sales (no laughing they did have 'some')

The hardware and software were rolled out on a 'fairly' timed interval. Desktop and iMacs were often in January, OS in summer, summer/fall, early summer came the laptops, etc etc etc.

Since the hardware usually had longer than 12 month upgrade cycles, sometimes it was Laptops in Jan and iMacs in the Fall and OS in Spring. etc etc etc. Those who 'watched' AAPL knew all this and timed their buys and sells around these specific time frames. It was usually predictable and boring. They'd buy a month or so prior to the expected announcement and then either sold at the very end of the day prior to a keynote OR the first thing ON the day of the keynote. Those who bought were the 'suckers' who though they were getting in just at the right time and then after a GREAT keynote the stock was flat or down they'd sell off in frustration, further driving the price lower.

Those days are largely behind us I'd say. The 'mad stock price swings' of 'pre-announcment frantic buying' followed by 'post-keynote mad selling' just aren't happening like they did before.

Today we've got...

- Mac hardware etc
- Software & OS (.mac etc)
- iPod
- iPhone
- iPad
- Apple TV (still just a blip but its being 'watched')
- iTunes (songs, apps, books, etc)
- iAd (perhaps not now but soon)

They've got an entire agenda to juggle... upgrades are happening all through the year and continued hints on 'other stuff' in the works. It's much harder (today) to find times when you SHOULD sell AAPL and then wait to re-buy after normal stock fluctuations and weakness.

Apple a 'buy and hold' stock?!?! NO WAY!!!

The trick is and really always has been separating the news from the rumors. Much easier said than done at the best of times.

That would be very cool, but I think highly unlikely this early in the product's life.

What about Fuddruckers?

I agree 1000%... yes, I said one-thousand percent!

Team AI, just do everyone a blessed favor and quote only Turley Muller, Andy Zaky and those few other outsiders who do not have their heads up their butts from now on. As we already know, Huberty, Wu, etc. are like poison and can't feed themselves without an instruction guide.

When the story of Apple is written as a part of many business school case studies in future years, one of the more interesting topics is how Apple managed to get through the Great Recession and managing to kick the living crap out of sales and profitability targets from quarter to quarter. I mean seriously these numbers any company would kill for, but during this economy in a mostly consumer-focused business? Seriously?

And of course next quarter we'll see iPad sales, new Macbook Pros and an iPhone at the tail end. This company's performance is truly scary. A $60 billion run rate is certainly possible this year. Margins are above 40%(!!!). $47 billion in the bank. The list goes on and on...

Jobs will surely go down in history as one of the greatest marketers and CEOs in the history of American business... that is, until they locate the body of that iPhone losing kid stuffed in the trunk of his car.

Any word on their German Beer expenses? I think they might take a hit on that this quarter. Like the barroom floor.

"Thish Iphfone ish GREAT - havesh yoush sheeen thish - here! Take thish from me, I'm too drunk to usesh thish thing. NO Gwaaaan take itsh home witsh you and play with it. I've got to go passh out."

I have repeated this time and time again.

Gartner, Wu, Munster, Huberty, and Enderle are poor barometers of the tech market and horrifically inept at predicting what Apple will do. Heck, I wouldn't even ask them for the time of day -- they'd probably be off by three hours.

If you're gonna quote someone, pick a star analyst like Marshall or Abramsky, maybe Hargreaves (not on the list).

Yea, that's what i mean...

I'm surprised no one mentioned it here before me



Dan

Yeah. That must be why profits were up 90%.

these are not incompatible statements. Give the rolleyes a miss.

Of course they are not.

(Perhaps I should have had "/sarcasm" instead of Oh, btw, I recommend that you check the history of samab's posts).

If they add a DVR capability to Apple TV, I'd order one immediately. Without a DVR, I've got no use for it. This is very simple - Apple TV could be a serious product line if it had a DVR. Otherwise it will remain a niche device that will never really catch on. Apple's stubbornness on this point makes less & less sense every year.

Absolutely. I thought of getting one, found it didn't do what I wanted, checked out ofther DVRs, decided the technology wasn't mature enough to get locked into a special-purpose device, the Linux options needed more time than I could justify, and eventually caved in and bought a mini for this purpose on the basis that when something better for TV surfaced, I could still use it as a computer. The existing ATV product is pointless if your main use of your TV is broadcast and playing back recordings. Some have found ways of making EyeTV work on it but by the time you've gone through all the hacks and have to worry about it all collapsing in a heap when you next do an update, it's not worth it.

revenue in china went up to $1.3billion in just first half of fisyear? that is incredible. what are that 800 points of distribution?

Definitely a sign they're locked onto a growth market! I guess for 800 distribution points, they'd have to be talking about mobile phone stores right?

amazing sells espesially I phone sales

Blackberry's ASP went from $317 down to $311 quarter to quarter --- Apple fanbois are saying that this is the end of the world for RIM.

The iPhone's ASP went down much more quarter to quarter.

Which Apple fanbois? Links? Are any of them posting here now about their indifference to a decline in the iPhone ASP?