Once upon a time... it was a safe bet that Apple was strictly a 'buy on rumor/speculation' and then 'sell on news' since the buyers felt the stock had little chance of continued upward movement once the NEWS hit. (since the buyers drove up the price to INCLUDE the 'news of tomorrow' and the drop was always considered a leveling off period where the 'suckers' who were banking on AAPL to go up ON the day of the keynote sold off when the stock didn't rise.
Well once upon a time Apple had what?
- Mac hardware sales and extended warrantees
- Software and OS sales (including .mac subscriptions)
- Enterprise sales (no laughing they did have 'some')
The hardware and software were rolled out on a 'fairly' timed interval. Desktop and iMacs were often in January, OS in summer, summer/fall, early summer came the laptops, etc etc etc.
Since the hardware usually had longer than 12 month upgrade cycles, sometimes it was Laptops in Jan and iMacs in the Fall and OS in Spring. etc etc etc. Those who 'watched' AAPL knew all this and timed their buys and sells around these specific time frames. It was usually predictable and boring. They'd buy a month or so prior to the expected announcement and then either sold at the very end of the day prior to a keynote OR the first thing ON the day of the keynote. Those who bought were the 'suckers' who though they were getting in just at the right time and then after a GREAT keynote the stock was flat or down they'd sell off in frustration, further driving the price lower.
Those days are largely behind us I'd say. The 'mad stock price swings' of 'pre-announcment frantic buying' followed by 'post-keynote mad selling' just aren't happening like they did before.
Today we've got...
- Mac hardware etc
- Software & OS (.mac etc)
- Apple TV (still just a blip but its being 'watched')
- iTunes (songs, apps, books, etc)
- iAd (perhaps not now but soon)
They've got an entire agenda to juggle... upgrades are happening all through the year and continued hints on 'other stuff' in the works. It's much harder (today) to find times when you SHOULD sell AAPL and then wait to re-buy after normal stock fluctuations and weakness.
Apple a 'buy and hold' stock?!?! NO WAY!!!