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Expectations for Apple hit new heights after record iPhone sales

post #1 of 44
Thread Starter 
Apple's 8.75 million iPhones sold in the March quarter combined with a better-than-expected launch of the iPad has led analysts to increase their already bullish views on the company's stock.

On Tuesday, Apple revealed that its profits increased nearly 90 percent in the second financial quarter of 2010, bringing in $3.07 billion, or $3.33 per diluted share. In addition to strong iPhone sales, Apple also shipped 2.94 million Macs and 10.89 million iPods. It was Apple's best non-holiday quarter ever.

Though iPad sales did not begin last quarter, Apple executives also revealed that the product's launch exceeded their expectations. The company has revealed that more than 500,000 devices were sold in the U.S. first week.

Wall Street's most prominent analysts now expect Apple stock to go well beyond $300, with the highest estimate coming from Mike Abramsky of RBC Capital Markets, who increased his 12-month price target for AAPL to $350.

RBC Capital Markets

"After the big run, what's next?" Abramsky asked in his note to investors. "The big run."

The analyst said Wednesday that Apple's iPhone sales were "stunning," based on surprising international momentum. Total iPhone revenue was $5.4 billion, up 127 percent year-over-year, based on a $600 average selling price for the handset.



Abramsky has forecast gross margins of between 18 percent and 26 percent for the iPad in the third quarter. With sales of between 1.5 million and 2.5 million, that would equate to another $1 billion to $1.6 billion in revenue for Apple.

"Apple sees a significant iPad opportunity ahead; On Apple's market share growth strategies, our (fiscal year 2011) iPad unit forecast rises to 9.2M from 8M," he wrote. "Should Apple be correct, Apple's first mover advantage means it may be able to extract superior profitability via a strong market position, as it has in other markets -- and iPad becomes Apple's next cash machine."

Piper Jaffray

Analyst Gene Munster sees Apple's stock hitting $323 in the next 12 months, led by a new version of the iPhone likely to arrive in June. Munster noted that his estimate of 7.5 million iPhones for the quarter was more aggressive than most on Wall Street, and Apple even managed to blow that out with 8.75 million sold during the quarter.

With the recent leak of Apple's next-generation iPhone prototype in the wild, Munster said "meaningful features" of the forthcoming handset will further drive iPhone sales.

Munster said he sees the recently launched iPad as the "Mac for the masses." The lower average selling price gets users a device that accomplishes many of the computing tasks they need to complete on a daily basis. Because of that, the analyst said he believes the addressable market for the iPad is larger than many analysts believe.



Broadpoint AmTech

Analyst Brian Marshall said the most interesting part of Apple's story is the international growth of the iPhone. He believes that Apple has only acquired about 1.5 percent of its international carrier partners' total postpaid subscription base of 525 million. For comparison, its penetration in the U.S. peaked in Sept. 2009 on AT&T with 5 percent.

Since it took the iPhone about 10 quarters to reach that postpaid subscriber penetration with AT&T, he believes the international sales opportunity could double 8 quarters from now, to 16 million units per quarter.

Marshall said the iPhone will generate 60 percent of Apple's gross profits in 2010, and the company will ship 40 million total units during the calendar year.



Oppenheimer

"Someone needs to explain handset seasonality to Apple," analyst Yair Reiner said. "March units should be weaker than the seasonably strong December quarter -- preferably by a good 20-25%. March units should never be flat and never ever grow. Break this rule and you'll leave analysts wondering whether a secular shift is afoot to a radically redefined notion of mobile connectivity."

He also said the demise of the iPod has been "greatly exaggerated," as Apple's media player was down just 1 percent in sales year over year. The 10.9 million units sold was much better than Oppenheimer's prediction of 10.1 million units, as well as Wall Street's 9.9 million average.

With the Mac meeting the market's bullish expectations and a forthcoming iPhone 4G launch, Reiner has raised estimates for Apple. He now has a 12-18 month price target of $320.

Caris & Company

Analyst Robert Cihra sees a "powerful succession of positive catalysts" for Apple over the next 3 to 4 quarters. Namely, he sees iPad demand exceeding supply, Macs gaining market share on PCs, an iPhone refresh in June, and a CDMA iPhone debuting in early 2011.

Cihra said expects iPad constraints to continue for the next three quarters, which will keep investors extrapolating the numbers that "could have been." He has increased his price target for Apple to $310, up from $300.



J.P. Morgan

Analyst Mark Moskowitz said Apple's revenue and earnings growth is expected to stay well above 20 percent over the next few years. Apple's overall revenue and earnings growth show that the company has no rivals in large cap technology.

Moskowiz has increased his price target to $316, up from $305. He said Apple remains J.P Morgan's top pick in IT hardware, and the company's growth story has staying power, based on expected iPad adoption, Mac growth, iPhone penetration in China and additional carriers in the U.S., improved margins, and entrance into new categories like mobile advertising.

Morgan Stanley

Analyst Katy Huberty has increased her price target for Apple to $275, up from $250. She noted that Apple's gross margin guidance for the coming quarter appears too conservative, which is a typical projection tactic for Apple.

Huberty sees potential upsides in Apple's margins from the forthcoming iPad 3G launch, strong sales of high-margin accessories, increased volume over the next few months, and a "benign" environment for component costs, such as DRAM.

Kaufman Bros.

Shaw Wu said he believes Apple's guidance for the coming quarter was less conservative than usual. Apple has projected $13 billion to $13.4 billion in revenue for the June quarter and $2.28 to $2.39 in earnings per share, versus Wall Street consensus at $13 billion and $2.70.

Wu raised his price target for Apple stock for the second time in a week, up to 315 on a 12-month outlook. He said he believes Apple will continue to outperform the market.
post #2 of 44
iPad + iPhone = the next level. $350.
post #3 of 44
It seems Apple was right again, and iPad is the next step in Computer evolution. The big advantage of OS X against Windows was it usability for the average user. Now the iPad show its big advantage of the iPad hardware against the PC hardware for the average user. The iPad is THE perfect media device. People didn't know they were waiting for the iPhone to start loving and really using smartphones. The same now will happen with the iPad and home media usage.
post #4 of 44
Does Katie Huberty come close onany of the other stocks she covers?! I almost expect her to give a target price of $260.

The ipad production constraints are starting to be pretty evident; apple must have projected sales closer to 2MM through June, but they likely have a target market well over double that. Really hope they can capitalize on it quickly; when the competitors come out the gate, it would be nice for the iPad to have strong traction.
post #5 of 44
Quote:
Analyst Katy Huberty has increased her price target for Apple to $275, up from $250.

Does Huberty live in a different dimension? How does she make a living?
post #6 of 44
Are these analysts paying AI to push their already proven to be inaccurate projections? Why are they given a pedestal when they are off every single quarter. Stop it already, AI. The cracks are showing and it's a very unpleasant sight.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

Reply
post #7 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by HMayes View Post

Does Huberty live in a different dimension? How does she make a living?

Agreed - please show her the door as she is obviously incapable of understanding the obvious.
post #8 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

I believe at least in the short term we are going to see Apple follow the market trends. In good economic times with Apple doing so well I could see the stock hitting above 300.00 but its hard to see that happening right now.

The economy is bad, Obama is going to give a speach on Thursday where he is going to hammer the banking industry and talk about finance reform. Goldman Sachs was just recently railed with fines. Overall the market can take a beating on any given day depending on the news of the day and Apple will simply be a victim of that bad news.

There are no real bright signs in our economy right now and on any give day Apple can and will be a victim of bad news and market drops.

Oh please, who the hell are you and where have you been the last two years? Wake up! Apple has been blowing out numbers, AND increasing the rate at which it is doing so, during the worst recession since the depression. You're a fricking genius aren't you?
post #9 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

I believe at least in the short term we are going to see Apple follow the market trends. In good economic times with Apple doing so well I could see the stock hitting above 300.00 but its hard to see that happening right now.

The economy is bad, Obama is going to give a speach on Thursday where he is going to hammer the banking industry and talk about finance reform. Goldman Sachs was just recently railed with fines. Overall the market can take a beating on any given day depending on the news of the day and Apple will simply be a victim of that bad news.

There are no real bright signs in our economy right now and on any give day Apple can and will be a victim of bad news and market drops.

I doubt Goldman fiasco has anything to do with Apple even remotely! Yes, based on some speculations the share prices might stumble for a few days, but a company with 40 billion dollars of cash in its account with strong sales will bounce back in a day or two!

I would be more worried if I had Oracle shares, as they could fluctuate a bit given certain IT budget cuts in the public sector. But again these fluctuations are not large!
post #10 of 44
I'm not sure I understand the Oppenheimer analyst's comments about handset seasonality and Apple's March numbers - when the chart also shows Blackberry March sales consistently outperforming December-holiday sales. Or am I reading that wrong?
post #11 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

I believe at least in the short term we are going to see Apple follow the market trends. In good economic times with Apple doing so well I could see the stock hitting above 300.00 but its hard to see that happening right now.

The economy is bad, Obama is going to give a speach on Thursday where he is going to hammer the banking industry and talk about finance reform. Goldman Sachs was just recently railed with fines. Overall the market can take a beating on any given day depending on the news of the day and Apple will simply be a victim of that bad news.

There are no real bright signs in our economy right now and on any give day Apple can and will be a victim of bad news and market drops.

Apple is recession-proof. Where have you been the last two years?
post #12 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

I believe at least in the short term we are going to see Apple follow the market trends. In good economic times with Apple doing so well I could see the stock hitting above 300.00 but its hard to see that happening right now.

The economy is bad, Obama is going to give a speach on Thursday where he is going to hammer the banking industry and talk about finance reform. Goldman Sachs was just recently railed with fines. Overall the market can take a beating on any given day depending on the news of the day and Apple will simply be a victim of that bad news.

There are no real bright signs in our economy right now and on any give day Apple can and will be a victim of bad news and market drops.

On the other hand, with the economy being what it is where else are you going to put your money? AAPL is the new gold.
post #13 of 44
since the min bulk of stock you can buy is 100, then need to split the stock to let small investors get in. Not everyone can get 25k worth of a single stock in there portfolio.

and imo they should start buying back stocks to reduce there market cap, which is getting too high compare to earnings.
post #14 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

If Apple hits 350.00 I make a ton of money and you don't make a cent. So as always you are making predictions on something you don't even own just like you make comments on products you don't even use.

The fact that you and others are making your predictions on Apple sales only clearly shows that you haven't a clue about how the market truly works.

http://forums.appleinsider.com/showp...5&postcount=75

Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


Record after record in sales and the stock was at 197.00 on Friday an all the bullish fools keep predicting its still going to hit 270.00 which is never going to happen.

Do you like barbecue sauce on your crow, or do you just eat it plain?

It doesn't take a genius to pick an obvious winner. But it sure as sh*t takes a troll to deny it.

Your iPad comments are particularly amusing.
post #15 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

since the min bulk of stock you can buy is 100, then need to split the stock to let small investors get in. Not everyone can get 25k worth of a single stock in there portfolio.

and imo they should start buying back stocks to reduce there market cap, which is getting too high compare to earnings.

What broker are you using? $9 a trade from so many with no minimums. I bought 20 at a time (a few times) with a pretty small loss for fees. There is no NEED to split a stock to let smaller buyers in, unless the price of a single share is too high for them.
post #16 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

How much did you make off all this?

A great laugh at your expense. You know, the usual.
post #17 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

Apple is recession-proof. Where have you been the last two years?

Did you look at the Graph? it sunk down like all the others in 2008/2009, then recovered... pretty much like the canadian banks stocks I own.

The difference is the canadiens banks are back at there previous spot and will now slowly growth, Apple on the other hand has extreme pontential of growth and should keep going up.
post #18 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by BeltsBear View Post

What broker are you using? $9 a trade from so many with no minimums. I bought 20 at a time (a few times) with a pretty small loss for fees. There is no NEED to split a stock to let smaller buyers in, unless the price of a single share is too high for them.


True and false. You can indeed buy less than 100 but unless you own 100+ , stuff like "sell on stop" wont work because they need to bundle you trades with others to pass it on nasdaq, which only trades 100 multiples.

So, most broker sites will let you own less then the mimimum, but lots of features wont work on bundle stocks.
post #19 of 44
Again, just more evidence that Huberty and Wu are incompetent.

Huberty's target price is laughable.

The fact that Wu had to update his target price twice in one week pretty says that he has no fundamental understanding of the industry and Apple in particular. He's pulling numbers out of a body orifice. I'll give you three guesses, but you're only going to need one...

Sadly, AppleInsider likes to quote both of them on a regular basis.
post #20 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

Shut up you havent a clue what you are talking about.

Nicely laid out argument. I like the way you used facts to back up your point of view.

Wait, no, you didn't do that at all.

Shall I cite Apple's performance in comparison to the "professional" projections? So far, Apple has not participated in the recession, and it doesn't look like they are going to any time soon.

-Mayes
post #21 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


There are no real bright signs in our economy right now and on any give day Apple can and will be a victim of bad news and market drops.

Let's see. Inflation zero. Interest rates low. Dollar up. Unemployment down. GDP growth picking up. Market up over 60% since low. Corporate, esp. tech, earnings are on a tear. Health care bill passed. Solid financial regulations coming, and no more 'too big to fail'.

No bright signs?

Go back to your tea (the new koolaid) and guns.
post #22 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

Funny how everyone keeps talking about the last two years when within the last two years at one point Apple was at 80.00 a share. I never said Apple wasn't doing well as a company nor did I say their stock wasn't doing well, which by the way I own and you do not.....

And, yet, you've been the one predicting Apple in the mid-100s a couple of months ago, when you expounded on this topic with your amazing forecasting skills.

Go look it up, in case you are having trouble recollecting what you yourself predicted.
post #23 of 44
Just keep going up, that's all I ask for.
Mr. Scott
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Mr. Scott
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post #24 of 44
"Caris & Company"

So, that's what happened to that cow!

post #25 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

since the min bulk of stock you can buy is 100, then need to split the stock to let small investors get in. Not everyone can get 25k worth of a single stock in there portfolio.

and imo they should start buying back stocks to reduce there market cap, which is getting too high compare to earnings.

What broker do you have? They SUCK if they won't let you buy less than 100 shares. I use Thinkorswim (fantastic if you trade options) and I can buy 1 share of AAPL (or anyone else) if I want to.

I highly doubt AAPL will split ever again. They seem to be emulating Google's philosophy on that (how ironic). Splits don't mean anything these days anyhow.

-Mayes
post #26 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

Are we at 270.00? Also yet again I own a ton of Apple stock so I am more then happy to be wrong in this case. This kind of wrong I will take any day of the week. How much did you make off all this?

Its really funny watching a cheerleader like you that has nothing in the game.

How do you know what he owns or doesn't?

For that matter, given the utter nonsense you spout, how do we know that you aren't simply fantasizing that you own Apple? You sound like someone who is short, rather than long, Apple!
post #27 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

Thats okay you take the laugh and I will take the money. Just because I didn't think Apple stock would reach 270.00 doesn't mean I stopped investing. Unlike you my actions speak.

You maybe laughing based on one comment but I am laughing all the way to the bank. Today is a far better day for me then it is for you.

Its been such a good day I may just go pick up a few iPads. You know that device you can't have yet>>>>LOL.

You invested in Apple (or so you claim), post incredibly uninformed remarks about them on a regular basis - claiming you're an authority, and then when Apple (and everyone else here) proves you wrong and you just happen to cash in because of it, you pat yourself on the back.

It's like knocking off a bank and claiming you're in the right because you have an account there.

No one said outright hypocrisy didn't pay.
post #28 of 44
Mods, could you please give extremeskater a gentle reminder to take his meds?
post #29 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

My remarks are always informed

Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

There isn't anyone here that proves me wrong.


post #30 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

Are we at 270.00? Also yet again I own a ton of Apple stock so I am more then happy to be wrong in this case. This kind of wrong I will take any day of the week. How much did you make off all this?

Its really funny watching a cheerleader like you that has nothing in the game.

Well, if you really don't think AAPL will hit $270, there is a ton of money for you to make on the options at the 270 strike.

For the record, touting that you "own a ton of Apple stock" doesn't actually mean you own them (it reminds me of the episode of "The Office" where Michael Scott came out of his office saying "I declare bankruptcy"). Every investor I know does not blab about how much stock they own, especially on the internet. It's distasteful and makes you look like an arrogant prick, even if you do own the stock.
post #31 of 44
Amazing that they are selling so many devices this far into a yearly update cycle. I guess these new Android phones aren't hurting Apple's sales like some have suggested which makes the claims that HW spec sheets sell gadgets look incorrect.


Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

My remarks are always informed and just because you don't believe they are doesn't make it fact.

But are they ever fair? Like trying to bet people the stock would go down 27 points before it went up 73 points? That doesn't even make sense. It's doubled up the amount you said it would fall, yet you're arguing with Quadra about that you could still be right because it hasn't reached 270 Seriously? Apple is performing well, which you thought wouldn't happen after the holidays. You expected sales to drop and investors to be nervous with the latest quarterlies. If you really are an investor and keep thinking Apple is Doomed™ then why arn't you shorting the stock.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #32 of 44
Remember, kids: as long as you're invested in the market, you'll always be right, even if only by accident. Those who don't invest, can't know anything, just like those who weren't alive at the time of the dinosaurs shouldn't be writing about them. Because they have nothing to gain.

post #33 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by HMayes View Post

Well, if you really don't think AAPL will hit $270, there is a ton of money for you to make on the options at the 270 strike.

For the record, touting that you "own a ton of Apple stock" doesn't actually mean you own them (it reminds me of the episode of "The Office" where Michael Scott came out of his office saying "I declare bankruptcy"). Every investor I know does not blab about how much stock they own, especially on the internet. It's distasteful and makes you look like an arrogant prick, even if you do own the stock.

He sounds like a mutual fund investor to me. Maybe one of the funds he has in his 401k has some AAPL in it.
post #34 of 44
why did they adept that first curve to a linear one when it's at least quadric? ahh.. my eyes! :P
post #35 of 44
I'm so tired of extreme beating around the bush in this thread. C'mon everyone! All together now:

Apple is Doomed !!!!!!!



post #36 of 44
1) Apple stock has doubled over the past year
2) Apple is now the third-most valuable company in the US, bringing it that much closer to Microsoft (Apple is only about 15-17% off or so)
3) Apple jumped as much as 6.3% on the Nasdaq
4) Apple expects sales this quarter to be as high as $13.4 billion
5) There was a 90% surge in second-quarter profit on demand for the iPhone and Mac. The results added up to the best non-holiday quarter in Apple’s history (again)
6) The only way is up with the iPad and next-gen iPhone. Apple's opened the road to astronomical gains with the iPad, and it looks like they're running away with this market.

Meanwhile Jobs vowed "extraordinary new products" this year.

If you're in the market for chairs, keep clear of Redmond, WA. You might want to include Mountain View, CA as well.
post #37 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by HMayes View Post

What broker do you have? They SUCK if they won't let you buy less than 100 shares. I use Thinkorswim (fantastic if you trade options) and I can buy 1 share of AAPL (or anyone else) if I want to.

I highly doubt AAPL will split ever again. They seem to be emulating Google's philosophy on that (how ironic). Splits don't mean anything these days anyhow.

-Mayes

You obviously dont know much about trading. Yes I can buy or sell just 1 share of AAPL. But when youre not dealing with a complete lot, some limitation applies.

For example this what I get when setting up a sell on stop for 50 shares of AAPL:
Error(s) Your order was not processed. There is a problem with your order: * This type of order must be placed in board lots. (11172)

Board Lot
A regular trading unit which has been decided upon by the stock exchanges. For example, one board lot on the Toronto Stock Exchange equals 1000 shares for shares priced under 10 cents each, 500 shares for shares priced between 10 cents and 99 cents, and 100 shares for shares of $1 and over.

And incomplete lot trade order can result in delays or failure on low volume stocks.
post #38 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

You forgot one.

7) Quadra doesn't own any shares so he does not benefit from 1-6. WOW you must really be feeling that jealousy and envy you always talk about.

What are you talking about?

Are you saying I should be unhappy/angry/jealous that I don't own shares of Apple?

I've never owned shares in Apple. I'm not an investor to begin with nor do I really care about it. I just enjoy Apple products. I don't really get any material benefit from posting here.
post #39 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

What are you talking about?

Are you saying I should be unhappy/angry/jealous that I don't own shares of Apple?

I've never owned shares in Apple. I'm not an investor to begin with nor do I really care about it. I just enjoy Apple products. I don't really get any material benefit from posting here.

Thank you.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

Reply
post #40 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

Read the thread instead of talking out your ass. Is that beating around the bush?

extreme, you are uniformly bearish on Apple, you consistently temper ANY concession to Apple knowing what they are doing, advances in the market, profitability or whatever with "but just wait, things will get worse" or something akin to it. It doesn't matter one whit to me me if you own Apple stock, or if you sell it, or use it to wipe your nethers with it, really. The only thing here is, on one hand you ardently believe that you are consistently right, when in fact you bat at best 500 and usually are much worse on any of your commentary where Apple performance is concerned. And that's OK - if that's really the role you want. But then, own up to it like a man and stop being all pricky and dismissive when you get accurately called out on it.

And to your comment. Read the thread, not talking out of my ass. You need to take a chill pill and get real. Your comments are crap most of the time and if you can't own up to being wrong you deflect off-topic. You want direct, there it is. I can't have a battle of wits with you if you insist on coming to the battle half-armed.

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