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Apple iPhone takes 72% of Japanese smartphone market - Page 2

post #41 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

Yet his net profit is 0%. I want to thank him for being right. I have made so much I should really buy him an iPad seeing he can't get in on any of this money the rest of us are making.

Pay up, Skater. You bet me $1000 that the stock would hit $70 before it would $270. And seeing that you're making so much money, it wouldn't hurt to throw in an iMac, too.

post #42 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by roy61 View Post

That headline is somewhat misleading. To put in perspective, 72% of the smartphone market is only around 4.9% of the total handset market in Japan which is still pretty good for any one handset but I wouldn't go as far as saying Apple has conquered Japan.
http://asiajin.com/blog/2010/04/23/i...hare-in-japan/

Just curious, which entry in this thread stated that "Apple has conquered Japan"? Can't.....seem...to....find....one...Nope. I think pretty much everyone in this thread recognizes (at least based on a multitude of previous threads) that the smartphone segment is a smaller portion of the overall handset market. But it is arguably the most PROFITABLE part of the handset market. So I'm having trouble seeing where the headline is misleading - it seems to be a fairly straight-forward capture of the article.
post #43 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I think he's overstepping himself. Sure it's possible, but I don't think it's possible in a one year time frame. I think $400 or $500 is as that is essentially a a doubling as I do agree that the iPad is a runaway success and the first computing device that is attractive to older people who have never cared for computers before. I think the iPad will be Apple most profitable leg after the iPhone within 2 years.



I'd like a split, wouldn't mind a buyback, and don't want dividends.

Yes, I'd like a split too... preferably a 4 for 1-- would put it at less than $69.99

Seriously, a split like that would attract a lot of small investors. That, plus the normal bump from a split would, likely, push the stock quickly to $100+ (your $400-$500 before split).

Hmm... I wonder if Apple could offer a share of APPL with each iPad?

.
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post #44 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by roy61 View Post

That headline is somewhat misleading. To put in perspective, 72% of the smartphone market is only around 4.9% of the total handset market in Japan which is still pretty good for any one handset but I wouldn't go as far as saying Apple has conquered Japan.
http://asiajin.com/blog/2010/04/23/i...hare-in-japan/

Unless we know what the original story meant by "smartphone", the statistic is meaningless.

Thanks for putting things into perspective.
post #45 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

But $1,000 per share is just crazy. The real problem is perceptions. Apple stock has ALWAYS been hyper-sensitive to perceptions. As soon as there's a bad quarter or bad news of any time, the stock plummets. It's irrational, but that's the way the analysts treat the stock. They carry it because they feel that they have to when it's going up by 50-60% per year, but they don't like it and never have. First sign of bad news and the lemmings flee.

Can't bear to watch the video, but $1,000 per share in 3 years is easily possible. Amazon would be the stock to compare it to to justify the valuation; they trade at a P/E of 70 with similar growth numbers.

I'm pretty confident that we will see $370 within 12 months, as I think the iPad numbers are grossly conservative. Time will tell...

As for the analysts and banks, they have become much bigger fans than they were five years ago. They seem to actually have some faith in Apple now, and that should continue for another 5 years barring a huge disappointment or SJ's departure.
post #46 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergermeister View Post

Apple Japan leaves a lot to be desired.

Any specifics? Product line, support, inventory, sales team, FileMaker?

I would think the product line is reasonably well suited for Japan (although the 17" MBP and MacPro would be non-starters).
post #47 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

Can't bear to watch the video, but $1,000 per share in 3 years is easily possible. Amazon would be the stock to compare it to to justify the valuation; they trade at a P/E of 70 with similar growth numbers.

I'm pretty confident that we will see $370 within 12 months, as I think the iPad numbers are grossly conservative. Time will tell...

As for the analysts and banks, they have become much bigger fans than they were five years ago. They seem to actually have some faith in Apple now, and that should continue for another 5 years barring a huge disappointment or SJ's departure.

I enjoyed the video... turned the sound off and watched the lovely lady.

$370 is certainly doable within 12 months.

I hope Steve shares more and more of the spotlight with others like Tim Cook as it will help prepare the investment community for Steve's eventual departure.

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post #48 of 100
I have to say that it is refreshing to see extreme taking such a positive and affirming note in his commentary today vis a vis the joys of owning Apple stock. The little side comment about Quadra's lack of stock ownership, simply demonstrates his heartfelt sympathy for that lack, however comfortable Quadra may be in his lack of largesse. Truly a break-though moment here in the AI fora. In fact I'm feeling a bit verklempt, please, type amongst yourselves, topic: how Gizmodo is neither a Giz nor a Modo - discuss. *choke* *wipes tiny tear away*
post #49 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

I suspect he is closer to the truth than many will credit him with. Perhaps the $1000 is a few years out but it's coming. Look at the speed Apple is closing in on M$s market cap. They have gone from half to within striking distance in a very short time. I haven't done the graph but they should pass M$ within a year or two I'd guess. Any math people here that could graph this closing gap to see the intersection point date on current projections?

That guy is off his rocker, and I consider myself a big Apple fan.

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post #50 of 100
Does anyone has numbers about the size of the so-called smartphone market compared to the overall mobile phone market?

EDIT: Someone already posted it while I was writing. As expected, AppleInsider added some spin to the story.

EDIT 2:

Quote:
The definition of “smartphone” is vague even among Japanese. Japanese Wikipedia [J] says that smartphone means that the phone has any of these operating system; “Symbian OS, Windows Mobile, Windows Phone 7, iPhone OS, Android, BlackBerry OS, Palm OS and Palm WebOS”. That is, all non-Japanese OS.

Emphasis mine. LOL.
post #51 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by Postulant View Post

Pay up, Skater. You bet me $1000 that the stock would hit $70 before it would $270. And seeing that you're making so much money, it wouldn't hurt to throw in an iMac, too.


You're under the assumption that extremskater actually bought AAPL. Monopoly money is not legal tender. I guess he thinks owning vaporstocks is the same as the real thing.
post #52 of 100
Reading recent rumors about Apple's interest in NFC (scroll near bottom):

http://www.patentlyapple.com/

I suspect that Apple may have included some of these capabilities in the next iPhone.

Apparently NFC is a superset of RFID-- which could mean that the iPhone could be used as an electronic replacement for cash when boarding trains, dining, buying things, etc.

I have read that Japan is quite advanced in its use of "electronic cash"... does anyone know if RFID is compatible with Japanese systems?

When I leave the house, I take my wallet, my keys and my iPhone... someday soon, I hope that it's only the iPhone.

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post #53 of 100
The Japanese market is a tough one to crack for any western electronics company. That being said there are exceptions to the rule. As other users have pointed out, Japan's telecommunications markets are so volatile that any accurate predictions are near-impossible about the short, medium or long-term performance of a product.

It's heartening to see Apple's sales increasing there lately, though. ^_^
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post #54 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

I have made so much I should really buy him an iPad seeing he can't get in ......

Stop bragging, shut up, and do it.

So that you can spare us this juvenile nonsense.
post #55 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

Any specifics? Product line, support, inventory, sales team, FileMaker?

I would think the product line is reasonably well suited for Japan (although the 17" MBP and MacPro would be non-starters).

Keep in mind we have two Apples operating in Japan: Apple US operates the walk-in stores, Apple Japan does everything else (local resellers, online store, support).

The Japan Call Center is horrible; even a reseller I spoke to yesterday said he has a hard time recommending Apple products because of the troubles he and his customers have had with the Call Center. Staff at an Apple Store (walk-in), which is run by Apple US, said that they had received many complaints about the Japan Call Center. The call center is very reluctant to pick up any machines and once even blamed a keyboard problem I had on me: they said I probably typed too hard, and refused to check my computer... until the discussion boards were filled with similar cases.

Personally, I have gone in to detail in other threads about some things. One story I have not yet mentioned (at least anytime recently) is I had a situation whereby I called the Call Center and ultimately they said that they would have Customer Relations call me back. This came from the manager of the call center. I'm still waiting for the call and it has been two years.

Sales: spotty service. Two years ago, my local shop was suddenly marked as excellent by AJ and given a fabulous in-store display complete with video, etc. Sales reps came down twice a month. The reps' visits slowly decreased in number, then ended, with no word from AJ. The display was suddenly withdrawn by Apple last year without a visit from a rep and again no explanation to the shop. This month, the shop was suddenly told they could no longer sell Apple products (this was communicated by phone to a floor salesman, not the manager; in the same call, AJ cancelled an order for a Mac that had been placed by the shop and AJ had even sent out a shipping date for). Some of the younger sales reps had poor manners: chewing gum during presentations, ruffled appearance (necktie with the tie very loose, shirt not buttoned... they could have gone for the t-shirts). A couple of shops in town have been fairly unhappy with the sales staff for some time; the recent moves have managed to really prove the last straw for at least one shop; even if AJ decides in the future to again sell through electronics stores, this shop will more than likely say no.

There are lots of things I could go into, but it's late (1:20am) so I gotta hit the sack. I love Apple's products. I just think AJ has a spotty record of quality and service. It is hard to buy from them with confidence. If they cleaned up their act a bit, sales would increase and buyers would stay (I heard yesterday one shop in town sells lots of PCs to Mac owners switching back to PC). Japan also is very Windoze-friendly. The iPhone and iPad are outside the realm of PC/Mac, so they should be able to do well here.


On the other hand, my experiences at the Apple Stores (walk-in) have been excellent. It is a different world from dealing with Apple Japan.

 

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post #56 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Yes, I'd like a split too... preferably a 4 for 1-- would put it at less than $69.99

Seriously, a split like that would attract a lot of small investors. That, plus the normal bump from a split would, likely, push the stock quickly to $100+ (your $400-$500 before split).

Hmm... I wonder if Apple could offer a share of APPL with each iPad?

.

Groan. We've been through this 'split' thing dozens of times. It amounts to a hill of beans. It doesn't hurt, but it has nothing whatsoever to do with valuation. A 4-1 split is no more, no less than your giving me a $20 bill, and my giving you four $5 bills in return.
post #57 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post

Who remembers the Chinese guy and the internet site that made a big splash about Japanese not liking the iPhone, . . .
N.B. The misleading article wirtten by the Chinese guy stirred a controversy because . . .

That "Chinese guy"? You mean, Brian X. Chen?
And that "internet site"? You mean, Wired?

I guess that makes me that "Welsh guy" and Apple insider Forums that "bulletin board!"
post #58 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Groan. We've been through this 'split' thing dozens of times. It amounts to a hill of beans. It doesn't hurt, but it has nothing whatsoever to do with valuation. A 4-1 split is no more, no less than your giving me a $20 bill, and my giving you four $5 bills in return.

It's a psychological move, but it does have a real long term effect as people do think the stock is easier to obtain. I know people that won't buy GOOG because it's priced too high despite them asking my opinion back when GOOG went public that it will grow very quickly. It's all relative, but it has a real effect on purchase habits.

The bottom line is if stock splits and reverse stock splits had no effect then they wouldn't exist in the first place.
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post #59 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

It's a psychological move, but it does have a real long term effect as people do think the stock is easier to obtain. I know people that won't buy GOOG because it's priced too high despite them asking my opinion back when GOOG went public that it will grow very quickly. It's all relative, but it has a real effect on purchase habits.

The bottom line is if stock splits and reverse stock splits had no effect then they wouldn't exist in the first place.

The problem with splitting is that it makes options more affordable allowing an already volatile stock to be manipulated even more. On the other hand, if options were more affordable perhaps I would buy some to hedge and make my Apple stock less volatile for myself!
Anyway, I think this is one of the reason SJ is against splits, he's tired of the stock getting manipulated by speculators.
post #60 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

Yet his net profit is 0%.

So?

LOL I'm not sure what point you're trying to make, but it's probably ridiculous.

Whether or not I have an investment in Apple has nothing to do with discussing same. I don't do it for financial gain.
post #61 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

I suspect he is closer to the truth than many will credit him with. Perhaps the $1000 is a few years out but it's coming. Look at the speed Apple is closing in on M$s market cap. They have gone from half to within striking distance in a very short time. I haven't done the graph but they should pass M$ within a year or two I'd guess. Any math people here that could graph this closing gap to see the intersection point date on current projections?


regarding the video, didn't you see the rose color in his glasses?!


Sorry for interrupting the main thread topic.
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post #62 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

It's a psychological move, but it does have a real long term effect as people do think the stock is easier to obtain. I know people that won't buy GOOG because it's priced too high despite them asking my opinion back when GOOG went public that it will grow very quickly. It's all relative, but it has a real effect on purchase habits.

The bottom line is if stock splits and reverse stock splits had no effect then they wouldn't exist in the first place.

Almost three-quarters of Apple is owned by institutional investors, and on top of that, another serious chunk by insiders and large/wealthy shareholders. The mom-and-pop owner (I would put myself in that category, even though it is not a trivial number for me) accounts for a very small portion. They also tend to be buy-and-hold investors, who do not trade much at the margin, and are hence likely to affect market prices all that much is a heavily traded, liquid stock like Apple.

Thus, the incremental demand and volume from a split for a company like Apple is likely to be trivial, at best. Like I said, it won't hurt, but it won't help much either.

That gets to your second point: lots of things exist as 'neutral mutations.' My appendix for example.
post #63 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Groan. We've been through this 'split' thing dozens of times. It amounts to a hill of beans. It doesn't hurt, but it has nothing whatsoever to do with valuation. A 4-1 split is no more, no less than your giving me a $20 bill, and my giving you four $5 bills in return.

That is not true.

Rationally, it SHOULD be true, but time after time, it has been shown that a well-timed split causes the PE ratio to go up - resulting in an increase in total market capitalization.

Investing is partly rational and party emotional. For a lot of people (particularly middle class individual investors), a three digit stock price is a turn-off.
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post #64 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

Which would make them all smartphones. Unless there's some, you know, distinction.

Yeah - in Japan "smartphone" is not quite as defined as it is elsewhere - or I'd like to see what the specific differences are. Remember we're talking a country in which the toilets have heated seats, music players - and I last I heard - can transform into electric cars.

It smells like NeXT's old "personal workstation" designation which attempted to invent a category for NeXT computers so their sales didn't look horrifying. One amusing note - they never placed number one - in the category that they themselves invented.

Sun's response was they still could consider themselves first in workstations painted black.
post #65 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

It's a psychological move, but it does have a real long term effect as people do think the stock is easier to obtain. I know people that won't buy GOOG because it's priced too high despite them asking my opinion back when GOOG went public that it will grow very quickly. It's all relative, but it has a real effect on purchase habits.

The bottom line is if stock splits and reverse stock splits had no effect then they wouldn't exist in the first place.

Companies who reverse split their stock are usually doing it to avoid being delisted by exchanges, which require a greater than minimum stock price to continue listing. Regular stock splits, on the other hand, just give math challenged stock holders a taller pile of stock certificates worth the same amount as the pre-split short pile. Before the days of easy access to information about companies, a stock split would attract sudden attention, which might cause a short-term price bump. Today the administrative costs of doing splits don't seem to be justified by any benefit.
post #66 of 100
as someone who lived in japan for six years up until last year, let me point out to you all that the (closed) japanese cellphone market is full of pieces of plastic rubbish with a million poorly integrated features and a user interface straight out of a unix console from the 70s

the ipod is extremely popular, it's not surprising that the japanese showed an interest in the iphone, and it's not surprising that they found a lot to like in comparison to the phones they had been using
post #67 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonnyboy View Post

as someone who lived in japan for six years up until last year, let me point out to you all that the (closed) japanese cellphone market is full of pieces of plastic rubbish with a million poorly integrated features and a user interface straight out of a unix console from the 70s

the ipod is extremely popular, it's not surprising that the japanese showed an interest in the iphone, and it's not surprising that they found a lot to like in comparison to the phones they had been using

That's what I've notice too. The cream always rises!
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post #68 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

That is not true.

Rationally, it SHOULD be true, but time after time, it has been shown that a well-timed split causes the PE ratio to go up .....

Show me one credible bit (e.g., refereed journal article) of evidence.

What you are saying is simply impressionistic and anecdotal.
post #69 of 100
Something tells me that the Japanese will go absolutely crazy for the 4G model we've been shown.

And as I've said before, if sales start to lag because the iPhone doesn't present enough tech crazy buzzing and flashing and blinking and barking noises, someone can just write an app for that.

In fact, I wish someone would just on general principles. Call it "Japan!", and it presents an ever changing array of colored lights, shouting heads, animated text, explosion animations and novelty sounds.
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post #70 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Groan. We've been through this 'split' thing dozens of times. It amounts to a hill of beans. It doesn't hurt, but it has nothing whatsoever to do with valuation. A 4-1 split is no more, no less than your giving me a $20 bill, and my giving you four $5 bills in return.

We both know that a split does not, in itself, change the valuation of the stock.

But, often a split does change the perception of a stock:

-- it's more affordable
-- it becomes attractive to new investors (less of a commitment to buy 10 @ $70 than at $270)
-- it was in limited supply, now it's more abundant
-- the company has big plans to do (whatever)
-- it gives the impression of growth
-- it stimulates interest in the investment community... lots of articles


... If you bought a share of IBM in 1968 at $XX. it would be worth $Y,YYY when adjusted for splits.

Apple split 2 for one in 2005 to $40... 1 year later it was at $80.

iI know, I know, it's all pixie dust, but it usually causes a bump in price!

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post #71 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

Something tells me that the Japanese will go absolutely crazy for the 4G model we've been shown.

I agree, but I also I think the 3G iPad will be huge in Asian markets. I think the iPad will be Apple 2nd most profitable leg within 2 years.


PS I want to know when Android-based phones are going to start selling more units than the iPhone. Maybe they have, but I have seen no evidence of that yet.

PPS: I was hoping that space/line at the top of the next generation iPhone was an IR Tx. While being old tech it's going anywhere and it would make for a great remote control. Those high-end programmable remotes are expensive while very limited.
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post #72 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Show me one credible bit (e.g., refereed journal article) of evidence.

What you are saying is simply impressionistic and anecdotal.

http://www.stock4today.com/stock-splits.htm

Or maybe this one:

http://www.rightline.net/splits/index.html

Sorry, I'll go with an unending series of published reports rather than your "waaaah waaaah waaah. I don't like what you say so I'll throw a tantrum"
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post #73 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I agree, but I also I think the 3G iPad will be huge in Asian markets. I think the iPad will be Apple 2nd most profitable leg within 2 years.


PS I want to know when Android-based phones are going to start selling more units than the iPhone. Maybe they have, but I have seen no evidence of that yet.

PPS: I was hoping that space/line at the top of the next generation iPhone was an IR Tx. While being old tech it's going anywhere and it would make for a great remote control. Those high-end programmable remotes are expensive while very limited.

I agree with all this, except I expect the iPad (line) to be the most profitable segment.

Yeah, re Android... really hard to get any idea of sales.

IR would be great... lacking that an inexpensive ($29.99) standalone box with WiFi/BT/NFC in and [multidirectional, amplified] IR Out.

PS Your magic number hit $26.85 a moment ago!

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post #74 of 100
With all the stock market expertise on this thread, does anyone know if Apple could offer a "piece of APPL" as part of a promotional, e.g:

"Get your bite of the Apple"

Buy an Apple iPad by Aug 29, 2010, and get a Free share of Apple stock! ($70 after the 4 for 1 split)


Thoughts?

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post #75 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

With all the stock market expertise on this thread, does anyone know if Apple could offer a "piece of APPL" as part of a promotional, e.g:

"Get your bite of the Apple"

Buy an Apple iPad by Aug 29, 2010, and get a Free share of Apple stock! ($70 after the 4 for 1 split)


Thoughts?

.

Why? Some people would not be interested in receiving a single $70 share certificate - since it would probably cost you at least $20-30 to sell it. For most people, it would be far better to simply get a discount - which would cost Apple the same as buying back the stock and distributing it.

But since they're selling every iPad they can make at list price, why offer a promotion at all?
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post #76 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

PS Your magic number hit $26.85 a moment ago!

¿Que?
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post #77 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

¿Que?

Needed increase in Apple share price to overtake MSFT in market value.

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post #78 of 100
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Why? Some people would not be interested in receiving a single $70 share certificate - since it would probably cost you at least $20-30 to sell it. For most people, it would be far better to simply get a discount - which would cost Apple the same as buying back the stock and distributing it.

But since they're selling every iPad they can make at list price, why offer a promotion at all?

I see your points. However, someone buying an iPad for a kid, would also be starting an investment in the kid's future (and encouraging the kid to invest).

Apple could offer the stock or equivalent mail-in rebate of the price of the stock on the day of the offering).

The upside, is that any people who opt for the stock would, likely, profit... and become interested in Apple profiting, too!

This could be used to goose iPad sales when supply catches up with demand.

And, it certainly would get a lot of press!

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"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
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"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
Reply
post #79 of 100
I lived in Japan for several years and continue to do business there. My experience with Japanese is that they are lovers of feature-laden gadgets but they equally like beautiful and clean designs that are highly functional. The iPhone fits perfectly into that category, both in respect to hard- and software.
post #80 of 100
Do people realise that  aesthetic and design is very japanese and northern european inclined, very austere and stripped of nonsense?
Japanese companies sold themselves to the West aesthetic in order to sell.

Just look at traditional furniture and architecture from Japan and countries like Denmark (you do not have to live there just watch movies from those countries).



I love  because of its design and boldness, for a capitalist venture they value their vision more than money ( they do not sell their soul to "features" in order to please buyers, they build things they will use. Because of that it becomes art ), and that is to Have BIG ball (sorry girls).

Now pardon my crappy English.
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