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Estimate says Apple has sold more than a million iPads

post #1 of 102
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With more than 500,000 confirmed sold in its first week, a new estimate has predicted that Apple recently doubled that amount and crossed the 1 million threshold for total iPad sales.

The numbers were calculated by seeing how many new, unique iPads were spotted coming through Chitika's online advertising network. The running tally has been in place since soon after the iPad launched, and the advertising firm's calculations have been adjusted a number of times in an effort to provide more accurate estimates.

The estimates suggest that the iPad is most popular in California, with 19.12 percent of all devices emanating from the western state. In second is New York with 8.3 percent, followed by Texas (8 percent), Florida (5.88 percent), and Illinois (3.84 percent). The iPad is least popular in Wyoming, where just 0.03 percent of all devices were tracked.

Just a few days after the iPad launched, the firm incorrectly estimated that more than 500,000 iPads were sold -- a number that was not actually achieved until the end of the iPad's first week of availability. On April 8, Chitika conceded that its assumptions in calculating iPad sales were "way off." It then adjusted its sales estimates with a new formula the company believes is more accurate.

Subsequent updates also accommodated for the fact that an iPad coming through their networks had an average of 2.73 different unique IP addresses. The firm also found a way to track iPads by browser cookies, through a workaround that bypasses Mobile Safari's rejection of third-party cookies.



Apple has revealed a handful of official iPad sales figures since the device launched earlier this month. The hardware sold more than 300,000 on its first day, reached 450,000 in its first five days, and topped 500,000 at the end of its first week.

Apple executives admitted they were surprised by the initial sales of the iPad. Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook said during his company's second fiscal quarter of 2010 conference call that sales "far exceeded our expectations."

"It has shocked us, the level of demand, at least initially," Cook said. Strong sales forced Apple to delay the international launch of the iPad until the end of May, as the hardware maker looks to meet demand in the U.S. with the currently available Wi-Fi model, and soon-to-launch 3G version, to be released this Friday.
post #2 of 102
I'm wondering how those state-by-state numbers look when normalized for population...

0.03% in Wyoming might be near complete market penetration!
post #3 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by iCarbon View Post

I'm wondering how those state-by-state numbers look when normalized for population...

0.03% in Wyoming might be near complete market penetration!

Their previous numbers did express people per iPad in each state and without checking I presume the revised figure do too. But we know now what nearly everyone suspected before, which is that these figures are little better than WAGs anyway. Fun for sport only.
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post #4 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by iCarbon View Post

I'm wondering how those state-by-state numbers look when normalized for population...

0.03% in Wyoming might be near complete market penetration!

I'm not surprised since AT&T offers no service in Wyoming and there are no Apple stores and I don't think any Best Buys either.
post #5 of 102
We'll see how all the iPad wannabe's do in total sale compared to Apple's product, this year is going to be very interesting.
post #6 of 102
Almost every time we see estimates for new products sold, they are right on the money. Bank on these numbers.
post #7 of 102
But no one wants an oversize iPod Touch! Apple is Doomed!™

I wouldn't be surprised if they did. I hope Apple release the iPad 3G first day figures. I am interested in WiFi vs 3G numbers.
post #8 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by FormerARSgm View Post

Almost every time we see estimates for new products sold, they are right on the money. Bank on these numbers.

The previous estimate by this same company was wrong so I wouldn't agree that they are almost always right. I would guess it's it's a decent estimate though. It's also worth noting that there is a very healthy grey market for ipads being shipped overseas that these estimates don't account for.
post #9 of 102
Chitika sucks. Being a publisher i know they suck.

They used to be leaders in in-text advertising but have lost ground to Infolinks which started just in 2007.

I wudnt believe any ad network's statics for the number of iPads sold except Google AdSense maybe.

Frankly, AppleInsider, this is not newsworthy. As you can see, they "improved" their estimation model which means they were wrong the first time. Next time, please dont make a frontpage news article out of Chitika's estimates.
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post #10 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chintan100 View Post

Frankly, AppleInsider, this is not newsworthy. As you can see, they "improved" their estimation model which means they were wrong the first time. Next time, please dont make a frontpage news article out of Chitika's estimates.

Actually, they've revised their methodology numerous times because they were overestimating the numbers.
post #11 of 102
The AI report says: "The firm also found a way to track iPads by browser cookies, through a workaround that bypasses Mobile Safari's rejection of third-party cookies."

Perhaps I don't understand what it really means. Otherwise, am I the only one that finds this potentially invasive and hence, troublesome?
post #12 of 102
And this isn't Worldwide launch yet.
post #13 of 102
I wouldn't be surprised.
post #14 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by NasserAE View Post

But no one wants an oversize iPod Touch! Apple is Doomed!

I wouldn't be surprised if they did. I hope Apple release the iPad 3G first day figures. I am interested in WiFi vs 3G numbers.

It is still true that hardly anybody wants to buy an iPad. This data does not suggest otherwise. All it means is that the relatively small number of people who do want an iPad have been efficient enough to buy one in the first few weeks. Sales will immediately fall off a cliff now that everyone who wants one has gotten one, and Apple will be bankrupt within two weeks.
post #15 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kovich View Post

It is still true that hardly anybody wants to buy an iPad. This data does not suggest otherwise. All it means is that the relatively small number of people who do want an iPad have been efficient enough to buy one in the first few weeks. Sales will immediately fall off a cliff now that everyone who wants one has gotten one, and Apple will be bankrupt within two weeks.

In case you missed it, that's why NasserAE said, Apple is Doomed!
post #16 of 102
ops doubt post...
post #17 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Perhaps I don't understand what it really means. Otherwise, am I the only one that finds this potentially invasive and hence, troublesome?

No, you're not, I find it troublesome as well.
post #18 of 102
Does not surprise me, I am beginning to see them all over the place, I am seeing more of them than I did when the iphone launched. Most people were playing games and watching videos, have not see too many people reading books on them.

Also, I would say a number of the people with the ipad are not your traditional apple buyer, which is people with disposable income. Many appear to be PC users and do not have an iphone.

Just my unscientific observation.
post #19 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doctor David View Post

The previous estimate by this same company was wrong so I wouldn't agree that they are almost always right. I would guess it's it's a decent estimate though. It's also worth noting that there is a very healthy grey market for ipads being shipped overseas that these estimates don't account for.

They were off by about 50k.

even if you give it a 50k either way lee way, it is very possible that they will be on track to have sold 1 million or very close by the 3g launch day. And that's rather impressive for a device boo'd as a big ipod touch. the numbers for the +3g and international could skyrocket.
post #20 of 102
Arstechnia is already seeing surprisingly high iPad usage.

• The Apple Store I was in yesterday had no iPads in stock.

• Apple Stores need to use something more durable than the standard 30-pin connector cable. They were all torn to shreds where the cable meets the plastic. It looked very unprofessional.

• If tablets sold a whooping 1.09M units last year then it looks like Apple now owns 50% of the tablet market (using last year's stats). Sure, I still have to calculate the 58 Joojoos sold. \

• Just wait until the 3G version and worldwide sales hit.

• Has anyone been charged yet for the 3G version they purchased?
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post #21 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kovich;

It is still true that hardly anybody wants to buy an iPad. This data does not suggest otherwise. All it means is that the relatively small number of people who do want an iPad have been efficient enough to buy one in the first few weeks. Sales will immediately fall off a cliff now that everyone who wants one has gotten one, and Apple will be bankrupt within two weeks.

I agree with everything you said. To me this is almost a test case of Apple's mind share in the market which is proving to be dominant. As of today, since it's not a computer yet but eventually will be, the most reasonablee use is as an e-reader or luxury device. The economy is still recovering so the average person can't afford to spend money on a device that they can live without. There is a story on CNN where people have been waiting in line for jobs in Queens, NY (my hometown) since Friday for a job application for a union job.

I think this will be a moderately successful product until it becomes a computer so it can actually replace something. For those who disagree, remember what Jobs had said during the Q&A at OS 4.0, that hopefully people will look back on the iPad and realize how important it really was.
post #22 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kovich View Post

It is still true that hardly anybody wants to buy an iPad. This data does not suggest otherwise. All it means is that the relatively small number of people who do want an iPad have been efficient enough to buy one in the first few weeks. Sales will immediately fall off a cliff now that everyone who wants one has gotten one, and Apple will be bankrupt within two weeks.

Apple went into a dead-end market segment, got their Apple loyalists to blindly accept their dumbed down vision of the future, and the initial sales were just saturating that tiny little market segment. Now that the iPad has sold as many as possible, HP, Acer and Dell will bring out a brief burst of what the device should have been like, but these will just be to rub Apple's nose in the obvious. There will be no effective world market for this device, just like all the other tablet attempts and demand will simply not be there.

The iPad is a major FAIL and as NasserAE noted up thread:

Apple is Doomed!

Dang it's tough channelling TechStud, extreme, Dr. No and all the rest. I was going to cover the usual open source arguments too but the above was tiring enough!
post #23 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post

Does not surprise me, I am beginning to see them all over the place, I am seeing more of them than I did when the iphone launched. Most people were playing games and watching videos, have not see too many people reading books on them.

Ya... I'm not sure I'll ever read a book on mine. I'll try it at some point to see how I like it, but I don't think LCD makes sense for an eReader. For now I'm sticking with paper. Comic books on the other hand are killer on this thing. I've mostly been using mine for email/web/games. It's awesome for travel too... and for client meetings. So much nicer to carry around than my 17" MacBook Pro. And the battery life is awesome.
post #24 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by masternav View Post

Apple went into a dead-end market segment, got their Apple loyalists to blindly accept their dumbed down vision of the future, and the initial sales were just saturating that tiny little market segment. Now that the iPad has sold as many as possible, HP, Acer and Dell will bring out a brief burst of what the device should have been like, but these will just be to rub Apple's nose in the obvious. There will be no effective world market for this device, just like all the other tablet attempts and demand will simply not be there.

The iPad is a major FAIL and as NasserAE noted up thread:

Apple is Doomed!

Dang it's tough channelling TechStud, extreme, Dr. No and all the rest. I was going to cover the usual open source arguments too but the above was tiring enough!

LOL, great post
post #25 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

The AI report says: "The firm also found a way to track iPads by browser cookies, through a workaround that bypasses Mobile Safari's rejection of third-party cookies."

Perhaps I don't understand what it really means. Otherwise, am I the only one that finds this potentially invasive and hence, troublesome?

You can block them in your preferences.

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post #26 of 102
Keep in mind that a lot of these were sold outside the US. The states say it all: Californians sold to Asia, NY sold to Europe, Florida and Texas Sold to Latin America and Illinois could be sales to Canada. All US figures should be seen in the light of reselling these things on ebay for a $1000 not counting shipping.
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post #27 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Sure, I still have to calculate the 58 Joojoos sold.

Don't forget to factor in the -- I think it was 19 the last I saw -- returns.
post #28 of 102
I take my iPad 64gb/WiFi pretty much everywhere I go here in Las Vegas, yet haven't seen a single other person with one, though I do get an inordinate number of people asking about it.
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post #29 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by Takeo View Post

Ya... I'm not sure I'll ever read a book on mine. I'll try it at some point to see how I like it, but I don't think LCD makes sense for an eReader. For now I'm sticking with paper. Comic books on the other hand are killer on this thing. I've mostly been using mine for email/web/games. It's awesome for travel too... and for client meetings. So much nicer to carry around than a laptop. And the battery life is awesome.

It works fine for e-reading. Especially if you want to catch up on your classics, the iPad is great, with all of the free public domain books available. I read on mine almost every night. In low light I find setting the brightness down to about 1/3 makes it very easy on the eyes.

Just got my VGA adaptor and I was surprised how well it worked right out of the box with Keynote, Video, Photos, and YouTube. I'd like to use my iPod as a remote though. Has anyone heard of a solution?
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post #30 of 102
Haha, looks like the trolls can't come out and start saying Apple is not a success and up is down finally.
post #31 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheShepherd View Post

I'm not surprised since AT&T offers no service in Wyoming and there are no Apple stores and I don't think any Best Buys either.

Do they have electricity in Wyoming?
post #32 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by zindako View Post

LOL, great post

Thank-you very much!

Your're very discriminating for an Apple FanBoi

Wow, this gets easier as you do it - no wonder the "usual gang" does it so much!

My Precious!

Sneaking? Sneaking? Fanbois is always so polite. Android shows them secret way that nobody else could find. And they say sneak! Sneak? Very nice friend oh yes My Precious very nice...

Errrr ahem. Yeah that's gotta stop - no telling where it all could lead!
post #33 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by masternav View Post

Thank-you very much!

Your're very discriminating for an Apple FanBoi

Wow, this gets easier as you do it - no wonder the "usual gang" does it so much!

My Precious!

Sneaking? Sneaking? Fanbois is always so polite. Android shows them secret way that nobody else could find. And they say sneak! Sneak? Very nice friend oh yes My Precious very nice...

Errrr ahem. Yeah that's gotta stop - no telling where it all could lead!

I think you still have some way to go to be honest. You need to be far more abrupt and dismissive with the opening of your post. Next time try staring just with the word "wrong" then some diatribe explaining why the person you are replying to is an idiot.

Being incredibly dismissing and rude from the get go is key if you want to join the top ranks of Apple bashers.
post #34 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kovich View Post

It is still true that hardly anybody wants to buy an iPad. This data does not suggest otherwise. All it means is that the relatively small number of people who do want an iPad have been efficient enough to buy one in the first few weeks. Sales will immediately fall off a cliff now that everyone who wants one has gotten one, and Apple will be bankrupt within two weeks.

Well, I think we're still at the 'Apple sheeple will buy anything" stage so there are a couple more stages to go through before Apple is bankrupt. Better give it 4 weeks.

Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Has anyone been charged yet for the 3G version they purchased?

I ordered my about 8:30 am on the first day and have not yet been charged.

I bought a Mini earlier this year and IIRC it was shipped 3 days before I received it. If that holds true here, it should be shipped tomorrow to make Apple's target of delivery on Friday (they said pre-orders would be in users' hands by 5 pm April 30 and the stores would have them after that).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Takeo View Post

Ya... I'm not sure I'll ever read a book on mine. I'll try it at some point to see how I like it, but I don't think LCD makes sense for an eReader. For now I'm sticking with paper. Comic books on the other hand are killer on this thing. I've mostly been using mine for email/web/games. It's awesome for travel too... and for client meetings. So much nicer to carry around than my 17" MacBook Pro. And the battery life is awesome.

Download the iBooks application. There are plenty of free books out there - or you could use the Free Winnie the Pooh book that comes with iBooks.

Personally, I suspect I'll be reading a lot on it. When I travel on long trips, I often have 2-3 (sometimes more) books with me, often hard covers. My briefcase will be a LOT lighter with the iPad. And since I use my computer screen 8-10 hours per day without problem, I doubt if the high quality IPS display will bother me.
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post #35 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by iCarbon View Post

I'm wondering how those state-by-state numbers look when normalized for population...

0.03% in Wyoming might be near complete market penetration!



Not sure how that math works.. but math aside... what a marketing ploy that would be?

Apple press release - Apple announced today that it providing an iPad 3G to ever person in the state of Wyoming!

To be followed by news and blog headlines -
'Apple announced today that it is giving a free pad to every person in Wyoming'
'Apple's Jobs to extend magical reality distortion field to the whole state of Wyoming.'


Just to be clear these are fake and not real.
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post #36 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

They were off by about 50k.

even if you give it a 50k either way lee way, it is very possible that they will be on track to have sold 1 million or very close by the 3g launch day. And that's rather impressive for a device boo'd as a big ipod touch. the numbers for the +3g and international could skyrocket.

Agree. Mainly thought analyst shouldn't get credit for being almost always right on the money, as op indicated, when they were off by 50k on previous estimate. I did say I thought it was pretty close though. I probably should have added Apple is Doomed(tm).
If the grey market is any indication (I think it is) I think skyrocketing sales when released internationally is right.
post #37 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Personally, I suspect I'll be reading a lot on it. When I travel on long trips, I often have 2-3 (sometimes more) books with me, often hard covers. My briefcase will be a LOT lighter with the iPad. And since I use my computer screen 8-10 hours per day without problem, I doubt if the high quality IPS display will bother me.

I totally agree with you here, for regular travelers, eReaders of whatever type are a blessing. I'm carrying far less weight with me when I travel since I got my Kindle.
post #38 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


• Apple Stores need to use something more durable than the standard 30-pin connector cable. They were all torn to shreds where the cable meets the plastic. It looked very unprofessional.

if you are talking about the demo units in the stores, they are. Or at least were at my local stores, Some kind of DC/Security hydra. The plastic looked thinner than my dock connector cables. Combine that with folks twisting them around, flipping them over etc and it's no shock the cables are looking nasty.

And even if some stores are using the regular cable, they will have some kind of security thing as well and they like to zip tie cables together to keep things tidy. so the plastic would still get all rubbed apart

Quote:
Originally Posted by str1f3 View Post

I agree with everything you said. To me this is almost a test case of Apple's mind share in the market which is proving to be dominant. As of today, since it's not a computer yet but eventually will be,

that eventually being a good 5 years out if ever.

At the moment, Apple clearly isn't thinking of this as a replacement for anything. It's to grab that untapped market that doesn't need the power of a notebook, but would like the portability, but at the same time the phone/touch aren't quite enough. AND they don't want to have 5 devices in their pockets.

And they have done pretty well. Especially when you consider that they have hospitals testing ipads with things remote access apps for their staff, news stations buying them in place of paper scripts, schools talking of loan outs to students in place of a half dozen paperbacks for one AP English class and so on. Not to mention nice buzz from artist types with videos like this
post #39 of 102
We were totally wrong last time! But now we know what we're talking about. No, seriously. Please listen. See, our estimates have a margin of error of 0.5 units! THAT's how professional we are. Please put us on page 1.
post #40 of 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson View Post

I think you still have some way to go to be honest. You need to be far more abrupt and dismissive with the opening of your post. Next time try staring just with the word "wrong" then some diatribe explaining why the person you are replying to is an idiot.

Being incredibly dismissing and rude from the get go is key if you want to join the top ranks of Apple bashers.

Like this?

WRONG!!!!!
WHERE THE F*** HAVE YOU FANBOIS BEEN? HP is releasing the Slate this year, Dell is releasing the Looking F***ing Glass, the iPad is officially pwned as a lame-ass wannabe - no ports, no camera, dumbed-down OS - compared to freakin' awesome hardware designs running Windows F***in' 7 and AN F***in' DROID with more than 50,000 APPS!!!!!

YEAH!!! Wake up and smell the coffee you Cupertino Tools! Stop kissing Jobsey's A** and get a life fer crissakes!

Whoa! I see what you mean. I feel like Luke Skywalker being seduced by the Dark side. I can so see why they respond like that though - you just shut off your higher brain functions and let your primitive brain stem take over. I even had a strong desire to drag my knuckles on the floor and thump my chest! Wow!

Seriously have to stop doing that now - sorry guys. Hopefully some of the genuine article will show up and take up the workload. *WHEW*

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