Originally Posted by solipsism
I was charged right the time I made my post. It's still in a hold state, but Apple has initiated the charge. That is a very good sign.
That's odd. Apple doesn't typically charge until the item ships.
But even if they held the money on your card (maybe it has to do with credit limit or experience buying on the Apple Store or something), I don't understand why it's a good sign. If they placed the charge hold as soon as you placed the order, that doesn't tell you ANYTHING about whether it's ready to ship (until to changes from 'hold' to 'charged).
Originally Posted by mstone
Good point but in offsetting that is the situation where more than one iPad in a family could be registered as the same IP because of DHCP on the same router.
Or 200 different iPads in Starbucks.
The point is that they're assuming that there is some relationship between # of iPads in circulation and number of hits on the web sites they track. At that fundamental level, that's not an unreasonable assumption.
The problem is that they don't know if it's one iPad for every 3 distinct IP addresses or 3 ipads for every 1 distinct IP addresses, so they made a guess. When Apple released some sales information (they now have 3 data points to work from - 300 K on the first day, 450 K after 5 days, and 500 K the first week), they are able to adjust the number EMPIRICALLY to give a better estimate. It just happened that they overestimated the number with their initial guess, but their new numbers should be much better because they're based on actual sales.
For those complaining that Apple's numbers are shipments rather than sales, the difference is insignificant. Many Apple Stores are STILL sold out, but even those that have them only have a few in stock - compared to hundreds of units sold per store. So, at worst, this estimate might overestimate the total by a couple percent - well within the margin of error. The number in the channel only matters if there are enough in the channel to make a difference - and today, there are not.