Originally Posted by addicted44
So basically there are a few races here:
1) iPhone vs. Verizon vs. Google vs. Blackberry
The Blackberry is the clear winner. I also don't see how it will be dethroned. I think people consistently ignore how powerful an effect BBM is on Blackberry sales.
However, looking at 2nd place, the iPhone has the clear edge here. Apple is just trumping everyone in this case. Verizon is doing well in second place, but thats not too impressive considering they are essentially the only ones selling smartphones to half the customers in the US.
2) iPhone OS vs. Blackberry OS vs. Android vs. Palm
The Blackberry OS has good marketshare, but unfortunately, its not a true OS, in that people don't consider it independent of the HW. The OS sells because its on blackberries instead of blackberries selling because they are running Blackberry OS. So, I personally don't believe the Blackberry OS is doing well, but this is being masked because the phones are indeed selling well. Oh, also, that v6.0 looks like a demon hybrid of the iPhone OS and Android. Its terrible.
WebOS is dead. However, if anyone has the resources to resurrect it to the land of the living, its HP. Lets see if they can actually pull it off.
Android has a lot of momentum, and the OS itself is possibly doing better than the iPhone OS on iPhones, in the US. However, its not clear how much of those better sales are just a consequence of the fact that they are the only game in town for 50% of the market, which the iPhone OS on iPhones doesn't even have access to. In the (albeit a limited, and unfair comparison) few markets they compete directly (international, and ATT) the iPhone is trouncing the Android. If Apple opens up to all carriers come June (or even just Verizon), I think that will seriously dent Android's popularity.
The iPhone OS, considering simply iPhones, is doing well, but is potentially losing steam. Lets see if this holds true once 4.0 is released. However, what gives it a huge boost over anyone else is the iPod Touch (and now the iPad). Also, 4.0 has the capability to completely entrench the iPhone OS in all aspects of peoples lives, with the exclusive networks (The game center) and dev opportunities its building (iAds, which might end up paying over a dollar to devs for each click! Google is paying in tenths of pennies!). The iPhone OS has become a complete juggernaut (and the easy integration with the iPad is just going to extend this lead). The only ones who can screw this up, however, are Apple themselves, with their asinine app store policies, and with their lack of presence on non-ATT carriers. Note that I am not advocating Apple not filter the App Store, but, however, they need to be consistent, and clear, so a developer can determine whether an app will be accepted or not before spending more than a couple of days of research. What is hurting development on the App Store is not the restrictions, but rather, the lack of clarity in the restrictions.