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Survey finds 16GB iPad 3G most popular, not viewed as PC replacement

post #1 of 84
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A survey of customers in line to buy a 3G iPad in New York on Friday found that more than half planned to purchase the least expensive 16GB model, starting at $629, and almost none planned to have the iPad replace their traditional computer..

Among about 75 customers polled on Friday, 57 percent said they planned to purchase the 16GB model, according to analyst Maynard Um with UBS. Another 29 percent said they would opt for the $729 32GB model, and 14 percent were going for the top-end, $829 64GB model with 3G.

Um said that every 100,000 iPads sold equates to about a penny in Apple's earnings per share. With Monday's announcement of a million iPads sold, that's more than 10 cents EPS in Apple's June quarter.

The iPad with 3G carries a $130 premium over the Wi-Fi-only model. 3G access is available in the U.S. through carrier AT&T for $15-a-month for 250MB of data, and $30-a-month for unlimited access.

Similar to Um's survey of iPad buyers for the Wi-Fi-only launch on April 3, most -- 94 percent -- said the iPad will not replace their computers. Most said they will use the device for Web browsing, media content viewing and other personal entertainment. Only a handful said the primary use of the device would be for reading.

"The survey further supports our view that the iPad will not cannibalize Macs & we continue to view the device as a largely incremental growth opportunity for Apple," Um wrote in a note to investors Monday.

Um and UBS had previously forecast sales of 2.1 million for the iPad through the 2010 fiscal year. Um acknowledged Monday that those numbers were too conservative, as Apple announced that the iPad had sold more than a million in its first 28 days in the U.S. alone. The device sold more than 300,000 in just its first day in early April.

"We continue to view initial iPad strength as a source of upside to June (quarter) estimates, but note that magnitude of near-term unit upside will depend somewhat on manufacturing constraints, as Apple also noted that demand continues to outpace supply," Um wrote.

Also Monday, Apple revealed that more than 12 million applications and 1.5 million e-books were downloaded by iPad users. Um said that as the ecosystem continues to grow, it will only accelerate sales of the iPad and other devices, including the iPhone and iPod touch. The key for Apple's iBookstore is to increase its partners and offer more selection, similar to what the company accomplished with iTunes, he said.

The first sign of strong sales came over the weekend, when another analyst polled 50 Apple stores and found that 49 were sold out of the iPad with 3G. Most of those stores were also sold out of the Wi-Fi-only model, Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray reported. He suggested that Apple likely sold 300,000 iPad 3G models over the weekend. Apple did not provide a breakdown of sales for each model in its press release Monday.
post #2 of 84
Seems about right. I'm going to be buying the 16GB Wi-Fi model when me Best Buy gift cards get here (I'm cashed out $400 of rewards built up over a two-year period).

I'm getting the 16GB model because:

1) It's relatively cheap
2) I already have a 32GB 3GS, so my music needs are already served -- no need to devote a bunch of space for redundant music.
post #3 of 84
It replaced my computer, using a 64gb WiFi here. Also, out of such a small sample, 6% replacing is a pretty good amount.
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post #4 of 84
Depending on the question asked, it makes sense that 94% of them said it's not a computer replacement. Apple never claimed it would be one. It might decrease computer usage in some areas, but for most users (especially those who are enthusiastic enough to go buy it on the first day) it definitely can't replace it entirely. In fact, I wonder whether the 6% who think it'll replace their computer will be disappointed.

Edit: Of course, being from Europe I might be entirely wrong as demonstrated by Smiles77 ;-)
post #5 of 84
Is it even possible for the current iPad to operate without a computer? - the first thing you see when you power on a new iPad is a request to connect it to a computer with iTunes on it.. I just plugged it on in, so I'm not sure if this is mandatory.

I'd have to say web browser is smoking fast on my iPad
post #6 of 84
I'm a bit surprised at this, given that for just $100 you can double the storage to 32Gb. It's such an excellent movie-watching device you'd think buyers would want that space to store video.
post #7 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by ktappe View Post

I'm a bit surprised at this, given that for just $100 you can double the storage to 32Gb. It's such an excellent movie-watching device you'd think buyers would want that space to store video.

I agree - I am also surprised and thought people would opt for the 32GB to have security regarding the memory.
post #8 of 84
It is not being marketed as a replacement for the desktop. Don't you remember the keynote slide with iPad in between iPhone and MacBook?
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post #9 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smiles77 View Post

It replaced my computer, using a 64gb WiFi here. Also, out of such a small sample, 6% replacing is a pretty good amount.

Good for you...I will be getting the 16 gig 3G iPad. Hopefully, to replace my MacBook.

I also, will be upgrading my 3Gs iPhone if it includes a camera with flash. Again, hopefully, it will replace my Casio Exilim. The photos are only used in my website so no need for print quality photos. Concern is interior shots which are unusable from my iPhone 3gs.

Would be nice to be down to just carrying an iPhone and an iPad!
post #10 of 84
It would not replace my late 2007 Macbook but it will delay purchasing a new Macbook. I'll be opting for the 3G 16Gb RAM iPad.
post #11 of 84
I'm glad so many are seeing the benefit of this device as a satellite computing device, not as a primary device like your PC or Mac. I'm also glad that the AT&T signup seems to be well understood by most.

Quote:
Originally Posted by allotrope View Post

Is it even possible for the current iPad to operate without a computer?

It needs to be plugged into a PC or Mac with an iTunes account before it can be used, but after that it does not require a computer to operate, you can make it a stand alone computing device if you wish.
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post #12 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacTel View Post

It would not replace my late 2007 Macbook but it will delay purchasing a new Macbook. I'll be opting for the 3G 16Gb RAM iPad.

Agreed...before the iPad, I was going to replace my MacBook with an updated MBA $1,500 (expected in June) but the iPad has saved me about $1,000!
post #13 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Soskok View Post

It is not being marketed as a replacement for the desktop. Don't you remember the keynote slide with iPad in between iPhone and MacBook?

Well, Apple never mentions the word computer when describing the iPad AFAIK. If apple wanted to market the iPad as a computer replacement it wouldn't need to be connected to the computer the first time it's used. The main way to add new content on it (by syncing to a computer) also decreases its value as a replacement.
post #14 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by ktappe View Post

I'm a bit surprised at this, given that for just $100 you can double the storage to 32Gb. It's such an excellent movie-watching device you'd think buyers would want that space to store video.

I thought about this one pretty hard prior. For me it was based on my iPhone experience, opting for the larger memory and never getting above 10% used, so it was a usage pattern thing.

Also, I use the pad to stream netflix quit a bit.
post #15 of 84
I wouldn't say my new iPad has replaced my MacBook Pro, but the ol' laptop has seen much more downtime lately. The sheer convenience of the iPad for simple tasks such as email and surfing makes it my go-to appliance for such things. Throw in he speed, lightweight nature of the unit and the instant startup of the iPad, and my laptop seems outdated. Once my employer gets our Citrix servers communicating with the iPad/iPod client apps, the iPad will become my sole meeting computer for note taking and the occasional server checkup. It may not replace my laptop completely for major trips or tasks, but I definitely rely upon it much less.
post #16 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Soskok View Post

It is not being marketed as a replacement for the desktop. Don't you remember the keynote slide with iPad in between iPhone and MacBook?

...on what you are primarily using your desktop/laptop for wouldn't it?

If for example you are primarily using your computer for email, web-browsing, photos, music, some light textwork, the odd presentation or spreadsheet - then arguably this could fill that niche very nicely.

For those who are actually pushing their computer, doing graphics, in-depth presentations, advanced textwork, artwork, professional level photo-editing/management, then yeah it's more about being an adjunct to not a replacement for a desktop/laptop.

The average consumer tends to fall into that first category however, and Apple may find that the iPad for many will be a suitable computer replacement. See a family, for example, with a main workstation computer, say an iMac or something similar, which serves as a docking point, and then iPads for the kids and parents for routine floating use. The docking point is there to handle the demands outside of the iPad capability, but the routine stuff is on the iPads. Moreover, since you can download content independent of the docking point (via apps, via App Store/iTunes, etc.) you are not always needing to connect to manage content.
post #17 of 84
You see the word "CANNIBALIZE"?
Apple had to make sure the ipad wasn't such a bad a** that it would kill their mac sells.
But the pc vendors will shoot themselves in the foot the closer they try to best the ipad. They already operate on small margins as it is. God knows there is a freaking pc vendor on every flipping block!
And I'm sure Mr. B Gates is worried about the ipad killing the traditional, or being less dramatic, obliterating the pc.
And the irony is that the only outfit that can help the pc vendors is MS.
Ain't that a bi***!
There is no pc vendor rocking their own OS. They have spent to much time sucking off of MS. They are lazy. Maybe Google can come up with something. Who knows. But it has to play nice with the pc or just lave it in the dark.
Steve Jobs done fu**** all them fools!
OMFG!!!!!!

Just my two cents.
What do I know!
post #18 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by ktappe View Post

I'm a bit surprised at this, given that for just $100 you can double the storage to 32Gb. It's such an excellent movie-watching device you'd think buyers would want that space to store video.

And for another $100, double it again.

I got the 64 GB model and am really glad I didn't go for less. I have 32 GB of music and about 15 GB of videos (so far, but still ripping CDs). Sure, I could get by with just a subset of my music and videos, but I'd rather not have to decide in advance which music or movies I want to listen to when I'm traveling.
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post #19 of 84
Second generation iPads should make a significant dent with pent-up demand from envious second tier adopters. If Apple is able to reduce prices $100 for every model under a higher volume scenario, iPad will be unstoppable and more widely adopted as indispensable for education, health care, offices, etc.

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post #20 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I'm glad so many are seeing the benefit of this device as a satellite computing device, not as a primary device like your PC or Mac. I'm also glad that the AT&T signup seems to be well understood by most.



It needs to be plugged into a PC or Mac with an iTunes account before it can be used, but after that it does not require a computer to operate, you can make it a stand alone computing device if you wish.

Okay..... maybe I'm missing something here.... and I'm a big fan of Apple products. If you have the iPad and dump your PC or MacBook how will you get updates for the iPad OS? And if you want to add music from one of your CD's how do you do that? If you want to rip one of your DVD's and add it to your iPad can you? If you want to have a 3rd party program can you download that and run it or are you limited to what Apple says you can have?

You are correct in saying that you can make it a stand alone if you wish but aren't you crippling your computing experience? I have a MacBook and an iPad 3g and can't see not having both to make the iPad experience what it should be.
post #21 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by ktappe View Post

I'm a bit surprised at this, given that for just $100 you can double the storage to 32Gb. It's such an excellent movie-watching device you'd think buyers would want that space to store video.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MacApfel View Post

I agree - I am also surprised and thought people would opt for the 32GB to have security regarding the memory.

Why spend the $100 if you don't need it? Why spend the extra $$$ for a 64GB iPod touch if you don't need the extra space? \

My music is on my iPhone and my iPhone is on me 24-7 -- I only have roughly 1GB of apps. I doubt that I'll have more than a few GBs of apps on my iPad.
post #22 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mazda 3s View Post

Why spend the $100 if you don't need it? Why spend the extra $$$ for a 64GB iPod touch if you don't need the extra space? \

My music is on my iPhone and my iPhone is on me 24-7 -- I only have roughly 1GB of apps. I doubt that I'll have more than a few GBs of apps on my iPad.

I got the 64GB model as that is all the Apple Store had left at the time. (which may speak to what the most "popular" models were). If I had my choice, I would've gone for the 32. I can't imagine ever filling this thing up, though for long overseas trips it will be handy to have a large number of movies queued up. You can never really have too much storage, right?
post #23 of 84
I plan on having the ipad replace my Powerbook, which I only use these days for check emails and surfing the web. Any real computing I do on the desktop, due to the fact the is has a much larger display and full size keyboard and mouse.

The ipad is so much more portable and a laptop and if someone comes up with a way to tether it to my 3G mobile phone then I would be set.

I as long as I have a full size desktop an Ipad it all the need for everything else.
post #24 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by LbrTradr View Post

Okay..... maybe I'm missing something here.... and I'm a big fan of Apple products. If you have the iPad and dump your PC or MacBook how will you get updates for the iPad OS? And if you want to add music from one of your CD's how do you do that? If you want to rip one of your DVD's and add it to your iPad can you? If you want to have a 3rd party program can you download that and run it or are you limited to what Apple says you can have?

You are correct in saying that you can make it a stand alone if you wish but aren't you crippling your computing experience? I have a MacBook and an iPad 3g and can't see not having both to make the iPad experience what it should be.

Seems there is still a need to have both mac and an ipad rather than being a full replacement if you want your own music and video. I'll be interested though if people start ignoring their mac a bit during the week say and then use the macbook on the weekend to do a few CDs, DVDs and maybe some more extensive documents, but happily use the ipad for most other days.
post #25 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smiles77 View Post

It replaced my computer, using a 64gb WiFi here. Also, out of such a small sample, 6% replacing is a pretty good amount.

How do you deal with printing and file storage? It won't replace any computers in my house but it would be ideal for my mother in law. If she needs to keep her ageing laptop (XP) in order to sync with iTunes the project is a dead duck. Is is possible to own an iPad as the only computer? Pray tell.
post #26 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by LbrTradr View Post

Okay..... maybe I'm missing something here.... and I'm a big fan of Apple products. If you have the iPad and dump your PC or MacBook how will you get updates for the iPad OS? And if you want to add music from one of your CD's how do you do that? If you want to rip one of your DVD's and add it to your iPad can you? If you want to have a 3rd party program can you download that and run it or are you limited to what Apple says you can have?

You are correct in saying that you can make it a stand alone if you wish but aren't you crippling your computing experience? I have a MacBook and an iPad 3g and can't see not having both to make the iPad experience what it should be.

We're both on the same page, here. Once you activate it you can get your apps and music and movie and TV shows and whatnot from the iPad, albeit in a limited way. It's possible to do but, as I stated, it's not how Apple designed the device or how they want you to include it into your usage needs. For the full experience you need to have a Mac or PC available for updates and syncing with iTunes, as you say.

Technically, you could activate the iPad in the store, at on a friend or family member's computer. I certainly know iPhone and iPod users who haven't ever updated their iPhone OS because they never sync it to iTunes. This might be the ideal setup for some people but it won't be the norm for this satellite device.
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post #27 of 84
I wonder how the iPad stacks up for PC switchers.

I would like to see some figures on how many people return their iPad once they visit their favorite websites only to see broken links. How many will get the 3G version only to find out the exclusive AT&T coverage might not be so great where they live and work? How will they feel about the inability to tether? And the glossy screen? I don't think that's going to go over well on a sunny day in the park or at the beach.

Leaving flash aside, Safari doesn't work with all of the internet. In the blog world, I often see error messages regarding missing plug ins and slow running scripts. I don't know what they mean, I just know I open Firefox on my MacBook and I'm back in business.

Koolaid drinking Apple fans, of which I count myself amongst, might go along with this, but switchers who are used to "life without walls" might not.

Shareholders with dreams of Apple over $300 will need switchers to help make it happen. We shall see.
post #28 of 84
I have 25GB for about 4,000 photo´s and 47GB for a little over 8000 songs.

It takes a while to download all that to my iPod Classic with it´s 160 GB hard drive, luckily I don´t have to do the whole thing often, just adding more and changes of content as life goes on.

Now with the 64GB iPad or iPod Touch I´m going to have trouble juggling content, especially with apps, movies and such to leave room for on the go storage needs.

Lots of hooking and disconnecting to a computer, a wireless solution likely will appear with some sort of auto-updating to manage the juggling.

Fsck it! I´ll just take my MacBook Pro along with it´s 500GB hard drive.

Nothing annoys me more than saying ¨Hey let me show you my photos taken on X trip¨ or ¨Let me see if I go any songs by X artist¨ only to find I didn´t have them synced to my low storage device.

For what Apple is charging for these iPads, there should be a hard drive with more than 160GB in each of them.
post #29 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

We're both on the same page, here. Once you activate it you can get your apps and music and movie and TV shows and whatnot from the iPad, albeit in a limited way. It's possible to do but, as I stated, it's not how Apple designed the device or how they want you to include it into your usage needs. For the full experience you need to have a Mac or PC available for updates and syncing with iTunes, as you say.

Technically, you could activate the iPad in the store, at on a friend or family member's computer. I certainly know iPhone and iPod users who haven't ever updated their iPhone OS because they never sync it to iTunes. This might be the ideal setup for some people but it won't be the norm for this satellite device.

I hope Apple will make it easy to run as a lone device, including getting OS updates across wifi. People talk about the iPad cannibalizing MacBook sales but I am not sure that would happen. The opposite could be true, that as people find the iPad is not powerful enough they opt for a MB or iMac as a second computer. I am also sure that the iPad may replace a desktop or laptop in many households but in the form of multiple iPads. Instead of spending a grand on an iMac a family might buy several iPads.
post #30 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

For what Apple is charging for these iPads, there should be a hard drive with more than 160GB in each of them.

Yes. It is much better and smarter to have a hard drives with inner movable parts on a device that is designed to be shaken, tilted, and always moved around
post #31 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post

The ipad is so much more portable and a laptop and if someone comes up with a way to tether it to my 3G mobile phone then I would be set.

Jailbreak iPhone + MyWi = done
post #32 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by NasserAE View Post

Yes. It is much better and smarter to have a hard drives with inner movable parts on a device that is designed to be shaken, tilted, and always moved around

Good point, perhaps they should offer a hard drive iPad version that won´t accept games and other highly physical apps.
post #33 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerseymac View Post

I wonder how the iPad stacks up for PC switchers.

I would like to see some figures on how many people return their iPad once they visit their favorite websites only to see broken links. How many will get the 3G version only to find out the exclusive AT&T coverage might not be so great where they live and work? How will they feel about the inability to tether? And the glossy screen? I don't think that's going to go over well on a sunny day in the park or at the beach.

Leaving flash aside, Safari doesn't work with all of the internet. In the blog world, I often see error messages regarding missing plug ins and slow running scripts. I don't know what they mean, I just know I open Firefox on my MacBook and I'm back in business.

Koolaid drinking Apple fans, of which I count myself amongst, might go along with this, but switchers who are used to "life without walls" might not.

Shareholders with dreams of Apple over $300 will need switchers to help make it happen. We shall see.

What does buying an iPad have to do with switching from PC to mac? It's a complementary device, not a replacement, which is exactly what this article paints it as. Users aren't buying it with the expectation that it will replace their PC. As a result this need to show everything that your laptop does is largely a fictitious one.

Could you bring any more troll topics into your comment? You covered Flash, gloss, tethering and AT&T. Congrats.
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post #34 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Good point, perhaps they should offer a hard drive iPad version that won´t accept games and other highly physical apps.

Or they could just double the memory
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post #35 of 84
I'm not sure we can glean much from this very limited sample, but it is interesting to hear what kind of iPad people in this area were planning on getting.

Personally, I got the 64GB Wi-Fi iPad and it's most definitely replaced my MacBook Air. I have an iMac as my main computer and even that I'm using a lot less now that I have iPad. If I want to go on the internet, I use iPad. If I want to read/compose email, 90% of the time I use iPad. View pictures? iPad. Update iCal? iPad. Check weather or contacts? iPad. The only time I really use my iMac these days is when I want to import pictures into iPhoto, encode video or write something lengthy.

The one thing I've been most impressed with is how personal iPad is. There is something about holding all that amazing content in your hands and curled up in an armchair. It's intimate.
post #36 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by paxman View Post

How do you deal with printing and file storage? It won't replace any computers in my house but it would be ideal for my mother in law. If she needs to keep her ageing laptop (XP) in order to sync with iTunes the project is a dead duck. Is is possible to own an iPad as the only computer? Pray tell.

Personally, my printing is done by emailing to a gmail account I made specifically for this and print from my desktop. Others I know use one of the many available apps to print from their wireless printers. File storage I'm assuming means documents and photos, both of which are stored within my apps and are transferred by email, card reader, or Internet after the initial sync. It is possible to use as your only computer, but not completely practical for power users. Living at home with a desktop and at school with computer labs makes my need for owning another computer disappear. It definitely can negate the need for a laptop, if one has a desktop. Dependent on your mother-in-law's age, it could be her only computer. The only thing a separate computer is needed for is initial syncing and updates (which may come over the air for all we know). File storage would be the final reason for a separate computer. In conclusion, using an iPad instead of a laptop in a household that already has a desktop, is perfectly feasible. Using an iPad to replace all computers, a select group can do. My final advice would be to ask, will you regret your decision either way after a month? For me, that answer is absolutely not.
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post #37 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mazda 3s View Post

Seems about right. I'm going to be buying the 16GB Wi-Fi model when me Best Buy gift cards get here (I'm cashed out $400 of rewards built up over a two-year period).

I'm getting the 16GB model because:

1) It's relatively cheap
2) I already have a 32GB 3GS, so my music needs are already served -- no need to devote a bunch of space for redundant music.

Hadn't thought about it that way, but yea I guess you really dont need a ton of space for it since it's not as portable as the phones and has no camera for recording video or pictures. I still don't want one as it's relatively useless, but i can see how people would want something to browse the web from the couch. I just cant understand why you'd pay 500$ to do that if you already have a laptop.
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post #38 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

I hard drive would work great for all the tilting and shaking I do while playing games...lol. I would last about a day.

However I do believe that 16gb is a bit small for storage and 32gb should have been base model.

I would also love for one of two things to happen. Apple and Adobe to kiss and make up and allow Flash or freaking speed up the adoption of HTML5. Just too many websites I use on a daily basis that are Flash driven. I am not a lover of Flash I just want to be able to use all the sites I uses on my MBP without have to go from one to the other.

Nothing will speed up the adoption of HTML5. It's not a standard and we haven't even killed off IE6 yet. It will be a niche market for the next 5-10 years.
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post #39 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeffreytgilbert View Post

Hadn't thought about it that way, but yea I guess you really dont need a ton of space for it since it's not as portable as the phones and has no camera for recording video or pictures. I still don't want one as it's relatively useless, but i can see how people would want something to browse the web from the couch. I just cant understand why you'd pay 500$ to do that if you already have a laptop.


I don't know about you, but laying on the couch with my MBP isn't exactly as comfortable as laying down with a book or magazine -- an iPad is. My MBP also turns into a furnace within minutes of sitting on my lap.

But the main reason why I'm buying it is because I have a slew of CC rewards and couldn't think of anything else to use them on. The latest 13" MBP refresh was a dud IMHO and the rewards were originally gonna go towards that.
post #40 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmf2 View Post

What does buying an iPad have to do with switching from PC to mac? It's a complementary device, not a replacement, which is exactly what this article paints it as. Users aren't buying it with the expectation that it will replace their PC. As a result this need to show everything that your laptop does is largely a fictitious one.

Could you bring any more troll topics into your comment? You covered Flash, gloss, tethering and AT&T. Congrats.

Someone with a PC might consider the iPad an inexpensive way to enter the Apple world and see what it is all about, as the iPod before it.

As far as your troll comment, these are issues that matter to normal people.
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