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NPD: Android phones now outsell Apple's iPhone in US - Page 4

post #121 of 279
Nice... Very Nice
"Why iPhone"... Hmmm?
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"Why iPhone"... Hmmm?
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post #122 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by Superbass View Post

At this point, a lot of app developers are probably rethinking which platform they should focus on - once android has about 150% of the iPhone OS's marketshare, I think you'll see a big shift in where the better designers use their energies... A more open system with bigger marketshare, more carriers, and much greater international penetration...

I disagree, I foresee "better" designers being smart enough to recognize that they MIGHT need to create for both platforms. And solo hobby developers may shift toward Android if they have a pre-disposition to that platform now that it is maturing healthily. But the big developers, agencies and everyone else will stick with iPhone OS as their primary platform for the sheer elegance and consistency of the whole system from UI to distribution to scalability, etc.
post #123 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by Foo2 View Post

On the contrary, I believe you over-estimate the significance of the update process you describe.

That's the problem: When is an Android update available to the end-user? A: Rarely.

In what way am I overestimating the process? That's exactly the process one goes through when an update is made available. The screen comes up, you press "Update Now", wait 5 - 10 minutes (depending on the size of the update) and it's done. All OTA. Without the need to plug the device in to another computer.

I was sitting at Denny's (cheap 2 am food is cheap 2 am food) when I did my 2.0.1 update. It was done in the time it took for our waitress to bring our drinks. My 2.0.1 to 2.1 update popped up when I was driving home from work one day.

And "rarely" is odd word to use here. Does Apple not fall under that category too? One major update a year with a few smaller patches, if needed, sprinkled throughout.

And I'm not apologizing for the manufacturers here. Us users, if anything, are the ones most vocal about the slow pace of the updates for the phones with custom UIs on them.

As Android gains in popularity and maturity, Google will most likely slow down on pace it's updating at and settle into a schedule more like Apples. Which in turn will allow the manufacturers the time they need. I'm willing to continue giving them the benefit of the doubt here.
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post #124 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveGee View Post

I'm not sure I can agree...

I'm not an iPhone zombie ... nor am I an Droid droid... but here are my thought for what they're worth...

- AT&T doesn't make for a good carrier choice for the entire US...
- Neither does Verizon...
- Android is being sold via every (or just about) carrier in the US
- iPhone is sold only to AT&T (officially)
- Jail Broken iPhones I presume will/do work on T-Mobile

One thing is all but clear... The Android is all but unchallenged on all US networks other than AT&T.. So the fact that they are outselling the iPhone is a hollow victory at best.

Is Apples choice to shun the other networks really worth all that comes with it?

- The loss of sales (obviously)
- The more people who own Android the more people will recommending Android.

Does Apple really feel so confidant that they are willing to simply GIVE the Android platform an ENORMOUS chunk of the US market? I don't have any answers to this issue but I'm simply not 'impressed' by Android market gains when Apple is simply handing it over to them.

You make some great points, and they're all true, but TenoBell's comment still holds. What you seeing as "Apple needs" is really the "customer needs" since AT&T doesn't work for everyone. You wrote, "Android is being sold via every (or just about) carrier in the US" but remember that the iPhone is being sold OUT when it launches. If they don't have enough product for months after launch to satisfy their current carriers it make no sense to add another large carrier. If Verizon does come to the iPhone I would expect it to be many months after the initial launch date for the upcoming iPhone.

I have great service with AT&T and fast speeds that Verizon can't touch but I'd be very for Verizon to get the iPhone. It gets people off my towers, I get to see how Verizon can handle the iPhone surge, and (most importantly) the stock will undoubtedly skyrocket simple from it being officially announced.



One thing to note is that T-Mobile would be the first addition because it's so easy. just add a 4th WCDMA 3G radio to the silicon. That's all that's holding back the iPhone and iPad, but since the unlocked iPad 3G didn't get it I think Apple and AT&T are in bed for another year.
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post #125 of 279
The interesting thing is that almost every android based phone is buy one get one free, so yes I suppose there are a lot of them out there, 1/2 of which were actually paid for.
post #126 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goldenclaw View Post

This is the case for exactly one reason.

AT&T.

Apple chose to pick the worst provider in the country (in addition to no unlocked version being sold) and if they suffer market share as a result it's their own fault.

If I wasn't able to get my iPhone working on T-Mobile I would not be using an iPhone either. I'd suffer using a Nokia or Android rather than putting up with AT&T for another minute. End of story.

If i am not insane i recall that unlocked iPhone was sold in States twice for a week in Apple stores for 700$ (and it is around the price of the iPhone in all other countries)?
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post #127 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamIIGS View Post

The interesting thing is that almost every android based phone is buy one get one free, so yes I suppose there are a lot of them out there, 1/2 of which were actually paid for.

And? If Apple did the BOGO promotion or allowed AT&T to do it, I'd bet you'd see a surge in iPhone purchases too.

At the end of the day it's still a business. If a BOGO offer gets you more money and customers, then so be it.
\Apple has always had competition. It's just been in its blind spot.
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\Apple has always had competition. It's just been in its blind spot.
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post #128 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveGee View Post

I'm not sure I can agree...

I'm not an iPhone zombie ... nor am I an Droid droid... but here are my thought for what they're worth...

- AT&T doesn't make for a good carrier choice for the entire US...
- Neither does Verizon...
- Android is being sold via every (or just about) carrier in the US
- iPhone is sold only to AT&T (officially)
- Jail Broken iPhones I presume will/do work on T-Mobile

One thing is all but clear... The Android is all but unchallenged on all US networks other than AT&T.. So the fact that they are outselling the iPhone is a hollow victory at best.

Is Apples choice to shun the other networks really worth all that comes with it?

- The loss of sales (obviously)
- The more people who own Android the more people will recommending Android.

Does Apple really feel so confidant that they are willing to simply GIVE the Android platform an ENORMOUS chunk of the US market? I don't have any answers to this issue but I'm simply not 'impressed' by Android market gains when Apple is simply handing it over to them.

I agree with you and not Teno on this.

More carriers means more sales and greater market share. While some may dismiss the importance of MS, I don't in this particular instance.

Apple are trying to mold the mobile internet and computing space in their favor and point it in the direction they want it to go. Their success will be largely dependent on MS. More users increases the possibility that HTML5 is successful and Flash gets marginalized on mobile devices.

More users also means they can strong arm developers like they have here recently with the 3.3.1 section of the developer agreement.

Bottom line, MS is important if you want to shape the market and Apple does. I'm not suggesting that they give phones away to do so but I bet they look at the numbers. Certainly developers, both Web and app, do.
post #129 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by AsianBob View Post

In what way am I overestimating the process?

Simple: an auto-update process is 100% irrelevant if there's no update to be had because the handset manufacturer hasn't (and might never) adapt the new code from Google to run on your specific handset. Result: Android market fragmentation -- It's real, it's now, and it's pervasive.

Quote:
And "rarely" is odd word to use here. Does Apple not fall under that category too? One major update a year with a few smaller patches, if needed, sprinkled throughout.

So far, when Apple has provided an update (major updates once per year, minor updates including security patches every few months), those updates have always been immediately available for all models and generations of iPhone and iPod touch. This is distinctly different from Android.
post #130 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamIIGS View Post

The interesting thing is that almost every android based phone is buy one get one free, so yes I suppose there are a lot of them out there, 1/2 of which were actually paid for.

The other half are paid for in part by Verizon's whopping $350 early termination fee for each member of the pair ($700 total commitment).
post #131 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by sheff View Post

So android is gonna become the dell of phones. Doesn't bother me a long as apple continues to innovate.


Ummmm...Android is an operating system. Dell is a hardware manufacturer.


Dell is becoming a provider of the Android OS in 4 out of 5 of its new cellphones:

post #132 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveGee View Post

- AT&T doesn't make for a good carrier choice for the entire US...
- Neither does Verizon...
- Android is being sold via every (or just about) carrier in the US
- iPhone is sold only to AT&T (officially)
- Jail Broken iPhones I presume will/do work on T-Mobile

I don't disagree, but this is more benefit to the consumer than it is to Apple.

Quote:
One thing is all but clear... The Android is all but unchallenged on all US networks other than AT&T.. So the fact that they are outselling the iPhone is a hollow victory at best.

Blackberry still far outsell Android.

Quote:
Is Apples choice to shun the other networks really worth all that comes with it?
- The loss of sales (obviously)
- The more people who own Android the more people will recommending Android.

During the first quarter of iPhone launch Apple cannot keep up on demand. The iPhone just had 131% YOY growth during a quarter when nothing new happened. So sales are not that big of a problem.

Quote:
Does Apple really feel so confidant that they are willing to simply GIVE the Android platform an ENORMOUS chunk of the US market? I don't have any answers to this issue but I'm simply not 'impressed' by Android market gains when Apple is simply handing it over to them.

You assume that Apple has to feel threatened that their are actually other mobile platforms that are growing and succeeding. That everyone else has to loose for Apple to win.
post #133 of 279
So, in the name of disclosure, I recently bought an HTC Incredible because I'm sick of waiting for the iPhone to come to Verizon. I also make my living working at an Apple authorized dealer, so don't jump down my throat. I work with iPhones and iPods and iPads almost every day, and I own a touch. But it so happens that Android is a pretty darn good OS, and there's no point in denying it.

So first of all, the reason they aren't counting ipad or ipods, and the reason they ARE counting dozens of android models, is because this survey is about smartphone OS use. iPod and iPad aren't smartphones. And complaining about the fact that there are more android models than iPhones is like complaining that the Yankees always win because they poach all the best players. Sure, it's the truth, and sure it sucks if you're rooting for the other team, but It's not like Google is cheating or something. They made the business choice to give their OS away for free to handset manufacturers, and that business choice is paying off. That alone doesn't make their market performance "misleading".

Of course the new iPhone next month is going to give Apple a spike in sales, but unless they're going to start offering iPhones on other carriers, I don't think having a better phone is going to increase their market SHARE very much. I hear it over and over and over and over from my customers. "I really want to get rid of my blackberry and switch to iPhone, but AT&T is so horrible. Do you know when it's coming out on Verizon?" And I always have to tell them, "don't hold your breath." At this point, everyone who was waiting for their contract with another carrier to end to switch to an iPhone has had their chance to do so. And the iPhone is already the best smartphone on AT&T. So really, I think at this point most of the holdouts have either switched to iPhones on AT&T, or decided to buy someone else's smartphone.

As for "support"... Sorry, but we need to acknowledge that there are iPhone 3G users out there who bought their iPhones less than a year ago who are getting left out of most of the new features of iPhone OS 4. Apple has always been about pushing the envelope, and they've never been hesitant to cut support for old hardware in order to move forward. Buying an iPhone is no more a guarantee of forward compatibility than any other smartphone at this point. Apple never makes promises like that. You're rolling the dice no matter what you buy.

I was really unimpressed with the motorola droid when that came out. Found it really sluggish in things like scrolling and zooming. The HTC Incredible is a big improvement. While the OS is still not as slick as the iPhone's, it's really an excellent smartphone. I was especially sold because of Google Voice, which is something of an android "killer app." Ironically, this is an app that Apple rejected from the app store, much to their detriment.

For me as a power user, Android is great. Whoever was saying it was unstable, this isn't really true at all. When I bought this Incredible, I was expecting to keep using my iPod touch quite a bit. But I've barely touched my touch. In general, i've been pleasantly surprised at the quality of the apps on the Android Market. My experience is that Android apps tend to be free more often AND have less ads than iPhone counterparts, and there are plenty of good choices for all manner of apps. Not only that, but i've got multitasking now, skype now, tethering to my mac without jail breaking it or paying anything extra, a vastly superior network, turn-by-turn navigation for no extra charge, system-wide voice commands, and Google Voice, which transcribes my voicemail for me and lets me bypass the charges for talk-time and texts. I've really been pleasantly surprised by the quality of Android apps, the stability, and the feature-richness. If somebody offered me a Verizon iPhone 3Gs right now in trade for my incredible, I don't think I'd want it.

That said, for my mom, and most of my customers, I'd still recommend iPhones. The learning curve is easier. And if the next iphone is available on a network other than AT&T, then I may live to regret my HTC Incredible purchase. But I'm liking it more and more, the longer I use it.
post #134 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by Foo2 View Post

Simple: an auto-update process is 100% irrelevant if there's no update to be had because the handset manufacturer hasn't (and might never) adapt the new code from Google to run on your specific handset. Result: Android market fragmentation.

So far, when Apple has provided an update (major updates once per year, minor updates including security patches every few months), those updates have always been immediately available for all models of iPhone and iPod touch. This is distinctly different from Android.

It's not 100% irrelevant because there are phones that have been upgraded in the past and are to be upgraded in the future. Your argument would hold true if no handsets are being upgraded at all, but that's not the case, like it or not. The Droid line are the prime examples of the update process working.

Again, I am not in disagreement with you over the slowness of the upgrades from the manufacturers. Like I said, once Android matures more and Google slows down the development speed, the manufacturers have the time to do their upgrades for their respective devices.

All I wanted to point out was that j-something-or-other's post about the update process itself was misinformed.
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post #135 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

More carriers means more sales and greater market share. While some may dismiss the importance of MS, I don't in this particular instance.

Apple are trying to mold the mobile internet and computing space in their favor and point it in the direction they want it to go. Their success will be largely dependent on MS. More users increases the possibility that HTML5 is successful and Flash gets marginalized on mobile devices.

Market share has its place. But Apple is guiding the mobile internet by providing a superior user experience. Webkit did not dominate the web when it was adopted by Nokia, Google, and Palm. They adopted it because it is a superior rendering engine.

Quote:
More users also means they can strong arm developers like they have here recently with the 3.3.1 section of the developer agreement.

If they are really intent on strong arming developers. The reason iPhone app development has been so successful is because of Apple's guiding hand over it, even while developers complain about Apple's rules. They don't want to understand that one goes with the other.

Quote:
Bottom line, MS is important if you want to shape the market and Apple does. I'm not suggesting that they give phones away to do so but I bet they look at the numbers. Certainly developers, both Web and app, do.

The iPhone has been shaping the market from the day it was announced at MW '07. Before it went on sale, before it had any market share.
post #136 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by Superbass View Post

At this point, a lot of app developers are probably rethinking which platform they should focus on - once android has about 150% of the iPhone OS's marketshare, I think you'll see a big shift in where the better designers use their energies... A more open system with bigger marketshare, more carriers, and much greater international penetration...

That would be incredibly foolish.

Even if Adobe manages to meet its targets and even if Flash 10.1 is as good as they're hoping, it requires an 800 MHz A8 processor - so only a tiny percentage of phones will run it. Let's be generous and say that 10% of smart phones will be 800 MHz A8 or higher and will be running a new enough version of Android to handle Flash by year end. (I'm feeling generous-the number will probably be far less than that).

Yet if you develop in Flash, your app can be seen on 10% of all the phones (or probably 5% of all mobile devices). If you develop in html 5, your app can be seen on all of those Android phones PLUS the 90% of phones which DON'T run Flash.

Which choice makes more sense?
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post #137 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by maxmann View Post


having the most sold.. all those models at very little profit versus the limited number of variations there are in Apples phone line-up are breathtaking. The bottom line profit or ROI on each phone versus multiple venders with no economy of scale and 2 for 1 deals beating the iphone in sales is .But . well can i say unequivocally irrelevant? The iphone has economy of scale..


Apple does very well with their strategy.

But the goal is to maximize total profits, and that can be accomplished via any number of other strategies too.

Quote:
Originally Posted by maxmann View Post

so, why all the fuss about volume?

]


It is necessary for the ecosystem to thrive. It is important if one desires software and accessories.

Quote:
Originally Posted by maxmann View Post


oh i give up..

D


Hang in there. Theer is always hope.
post #138 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof. Peabody View Post

This part is important not to forget though.

Surveys are not a good source of sales figures. This whole thing is based on those "How many devices based on Android did you buy this year?" kind of questions. People lie on those things. A lot.

It's nice to see that someone is actually paying attention here. I'm amazed at just how quickly so many people here mistook the results of a survey of a 150,000 sample for actual sales. People can say anything in a survey and you don't even know the demographic surveyed. I've yet to see any actual sales data even remotely compare to these survey results. Actual sales for Q4 2009 have put total Android based sales at 1/3 the level of iPhone sales and that of course doesn't include the iPod Touch much less iPad units.
post #139 of 279
I don't entirely agree with this. There are Android phones that will never get an OS upgrade and others that may get an OS upgrade, depending on when the phone carrier releases it. There really is no clear idea of the upgrade path of all Android phones in general.

The iPhone 3G will absolutely get the OS upgrade it just won't be able to take advantage of all of the new features of that upgrade.

Quote:
Originally Posted by atomicpolywog View Post

As for "support"... Sorry, but we need to acknowledge that there are iPhone 3G users out there who bought their iPhones less than a year ago who are getting left out of most of the new features of iPhone OS 4. Apple has always been about pushing the envelope, and they've never been hesitant to cut support for old hardware in order to move forward. Buying an iPhone is no more a guarantee of forward compatibility than any other smartphone at this point. Apple never makes promises like that. You're rolling the dice no matter what you buy.
post #140 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by c4rlob View Post

I disagree, I foresee "better" designers being smart enough to recognize that they MIGHT need to create for both platforms. And solo hobby developers may shift toward Android if they have a pre-disposition to that platform now that it is maturing healthily. But the big developers, agencies and everyone else will stick with iPhone OS as their primary platform for the sheer elegance and consistency of the whole system from UI to distribution to scalability, etc.

I think the big developers will go for where the money and customers are. Same as already happens with the game industry, and in general on computers. If it wasn't for Apple itself, there would be very little quality software for OSX compared to Windows, and I think that trend will continue if Android ends up dominating the market share in a similar way to what Windows has.

Add to that being able to design a program without "big brother" apple saying yes or no, and without any surprises about what's allowed or isn't allowed, and I think Android will become the focus of most developers.
post #141 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by another_steve View Post

It's nice to see that someone is actually paying attention here. I'm amazed at just how quickly so many people here mistook the results of a survey of a 150,000 sample for actual sales. People can say anything in a survey and you don't even know the demographic surveyed. I've yet to see any actual sales data even remotely compare to these survey results. Actual sales for Q4 2009 have put total Android based sales at 1/3 the level of iPhone sales and that of course doesn't include the iPod Touch much less iPad units.

People can lie on a survey, but who says they're not lying about how many iPhones they purchased? This cuts both ways. Also, ipods and ipads aren't smartphones, so of course they arent included.
post #142 of 279
People are not free to drop the data plans if they want.

You saying your son has a first gen iPhone on AT&T with no data plan? Your son uses wireless data without being charged for it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post

People do it all the time, i seen people with the very first of those phones who dropped the data service, and just use it a fancy phone. Hell my son has the first gen iphone from my wife and does not have data because we will not pay for it.
post #143 of 279
Android is not like Windows. Windows is a proprietary OS, Android is open source and free to be modified. How do you develop for an OS that can be very different from phone to phone?

Developers have been free to do anything they want from day one of Android. That hasn't caused any great defection of developers to it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Superbass View Post

I think the big developers will go for where the money and customers are. Same as already happens with the game industry, and in general on computers. If it wasn't for Apple itself, there would be very little quality software for OSX compared to Windows, and I think that trend will continue if Android ends up dominating the market share in a similar way to what Windows has.

Add to that being able to design a program without "big brother" apple saying yes or no, and without any surprises about what's allowed or isn't allowed, and I think Android will become the focus of most developers.
post #144 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

That would be incredibly foolish.

Even if Adobe manages to meet its targets and even if Flash 10.1 is as good as they're hoping, it requires an 800 MHz A8 processor - so only a tiny percentage of phones will run it. Let's be generous and say that 10% of smart phones will be 800 MHz A8 or higher and will be running a new enough version of Android to handle Flash by year end. (I'm feeling generous-the number will probably be far less than that).

Yet if you develop in Flash, your app can be seen on 10% of all the phones (or probably 5% of all mobile devices). If you develop in html 5, your app can be seen on all of those Android phones PLUS the 90% of phones which DON'T run Flash.

Which choice makes more sense?

I wasn't talking about developing in Flash. Didn't even mention it.

I don't understand what you're talking about "develop in html 5". iPhone apps aren't designed in html 5, they're designed in the iPhone SDK. Since Apple changed the developer's agreement, I think the only apps allowed are 100% programmed in the apple SDK. I think you've gotten a bit confused by half understanding the past few weeks' AI articles of flash vs html 5 on the internets. Has little to do with apps on iPhone vs Android.

I'm talking about apps being designed for the Android platform vs iPhone OS. Right now, it takes considerable work to re-code an iPhone app for Android or vice-versa. Whichever platform developers choose as their initial target will be a huge issue going forward. If the iPhone app marketplace begins to resemble the OSX gaming market, Apple will be in serious trouble, especially since it's apps that are really driving the iPhone's sales....
post #145 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

I don't entirely agree with this. There are Android phones that will never get an OS upgrade and others that may get an OS upgrade, depending on when the phone carrier releases it. There really is no clear idea of the upgrade path of all Android phones in general.

The iPhone 3G will absolutely get the OS upgrade it just won't be able to take advantage of all of the new features of that upgrade.

You're right. I'm not saying that 3G users are completely up a creek (unless they really cared about multitasking), I'm just saying that Apple doesn't shy away from deprecating older hardware in order to move forward. I actually respect them for having the guts to do this, even though it annoys some people. It keeps the industry movin forward.

As for the updates, it was a major consideration in my purchasing decision. However, google also pushes updates to the "bundled" apps like Google Maps independently of the OS version, to be downloaded through the Android Market. To my knowledge, Apple doesn't do that. Also, I'm a power user, and if i want android 2.2 when it comes out, I'll just root the phone. And i have the added perk of not having to (legally ambiguously) violate the DMCA to do that
post #146 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by AsianBob View Post

It's not 100% irrelevant

Oh, my, well, let's just try to distract people from the fact that the Android market is young and already highly fragmented, with many (most?) existing users who may never, ever see an update even to their security-blown, bug-ridden device.
post #147 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

Android is not like Windows. Windows is a proprietary OS, Android is open source and free to be modified. How do you develop for an OS that can be very different from phone to phone?

Because google still has a standardized SDK for devs to use? And it's in phone-maker's best interest, if they change anything at all, to keep it compatible with the standards google has laid out. Heck, Mac OS is based on an open source kernel... that hasn't stopped people from developing mac software...
post #148 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

Market share has its place. But Apple is guiding the mobile internet by providing a superior user experience. Webkit did not dominate the web when it was adopted by Nokia, Google, and Palm. They adopted it because it is a superior rendering engine.



If they are really intent on strong arming developers. The reason iPhone app development has been so successful is because of Apple's guiding hand over it, even while developers complain about Apple's rules. They don't want to understand that one goes with the other.



The iPhone has been shaping the market from the day it was announced at MW '07. Before it went on sale, before it had any market share.

Those are valid points but Apple now faces credible competition from Android whereas when the iPhone was first released it basically had none.

It still arguably has the most mindshare of all the mobile phones but that can easily be lost especially at this early point in time. A significant and growing market share *helps* Apple to push its initiatives such as HTML5. I don't deny that having a superior mobile experience is attractive to developers and helps Apple push things in it direction but look how long web developers wrote web sites for IE 6. I'm sure there still are web developers that make their sites optimized for IE 6.

Should Android gain a significantly higher market share than the iPhone then it will be in a commanding position to push for changes it would like to see. For the most part Android and iPhone have been pretty much in agreement with what they want. At least initially Google, like Apple, was pushing for HTML5.

But that could change. Android seem to be more receptive to flash on its devices and Apple and Google are no longer as friendly as they were in 2007.
post #149 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by jahonen View Post

The poster that I responded to was making a claim that was in no way supported by the facts shown in the chart (loss of share due to people waiting for iPhone HD).

Sorry that I misunderstood the context of your response.

Quote:
Of course Q3 is the biggest since that's immediately after launch of new models. In this case the market share growth slowed during that quarter (even if volumes went up). After that it declided. I referenced only the chart and only the market share numbers as that was the topic at hand and shows a particular trend (Apple is not the only thing on end user's choice list).

Q3 share increased to about 28% from about 24% in Q2.

Quote:
If you want to discuss market share, these last few quarters have shown that the things that some even here have stated (and that has been dismissed by a larger part) are showing first signs of happening. Competition is catching up and joe average doesn't necessarily look only at the brand rather the combination of product image, price and UX. If the price is lower, UX comparable and image OK, that's competition already.

Will this downward marketshare trend for Apple (if it even is that yet) continue is a big IF. But these are the first signs that the competition is catching up and even surpassing Apple (for now only in market share in the US). If the market share drops too low, it will hurt absolute unit numbers as well (you'll lose mindshare).

A year ago between Jan and Apr, I was responding to many posts here at AI about how the competition was catching up and even surpassing Apple. G1, Omnia HD, N900, etc were all brought up to show that Apple had fallen behind. And yet come Q3, Apple gained share. So again since Sep, the competition has brought out better phones, better OSes, better App stores. We'll see what happens come Q3.

As I said earlier, Apple doesn't care that there are competitors that have larger market share in the arbitrarily defined market category of smartphones. Nokia and RIM platforms have always had larger share. The Android platform now has larger share, just like the others. Does this portend bad times to come or not?

Instead, by being focused on putting out a better iPhone (and better iPhone platform), Apple has increased AT&T activations by 800k-2million y-o-y for the last 4 quarters. It's actually growing faster than it did in the prior year. The only question is how many AT&T customers are there who might switch to a smartphone or upgrade from a prior iPhone. Apple/AT&T knows that answer better than I, but I think AT&T is fairly saturated, thus, my view that Apple should add more US carriers. But I could be wrong.

Android has had an astounding 2 quarters for Motorola and HTC over on the other 3 carriers in the US. But I think Apple and others see a flaw in the Android business model, in that Android-aligned hardware makers will make little to no profit (especially with all the 2-for-1sales). Thus the model is not truly sustainable long-term given the rate at which new models are introduced and the rate at which new technology needs to be added. Nokia, RIM, Samsung (partially), and now HP all see the critical importance of owning the OS to avoid the low-margin fate that has befallen all of the undifferentiated Windows/Linux PC mfrs.
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post #150 of 279
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Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

Android is not like Windows. Windows is a proprietary OS, Android is open source and free to be modified. How do you develop for an OS that can be very different from phone to phone?

Android is open source, but that doesn't mean the core libraries/framework/APIs are different from phone to phone. At this point, basically any program designed with the Android SDK will run on an Android phone. Sure, a phone maker could make drastic alterations to the basic code, but I don't think that will ever be the norm.

Quote:
Developers have been free to do anything they want from day one of Android. That hasn't caused any great defection of developers to it.

That's because on day one iPhone OS was much more prevalent than Android. Now that there are more Android phones than iPhones, chances are a lot more developers will use it as their main platform. This is also just the tip of the iceberg with android phones, if you consider iPhone had a 1.5 year head start, and way more media coverage than any of the android phones.
post #151 of 279
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Originally Posted by another_steve View Post

It's nice to see that someone is actually paying attention here. I'm amazed at just how quickly so many people here mistook the results of a survey of a 150,000 sample for actual sales. People can say anything in a survey and you don't even know the demographic surveyed. I've yet to see any actual sales data even remotely compare to these survey results. Actual sales for Q4 2009 have put total Android based sales at 1/3 the level of iPhone sales and that of course doesn't include the iPod Touch much less iPad units.

Be careful - iPhone is getting plenty of overseas sales, while Android hasn't really made a big move offshore.

So in a US-only survey, the two could be comparable, with both in the range of about 3m units per quarter.
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post #152 of 279
What you are describing is already not working. HTC has its "Enhanced Touch Sense" user interface and Motorola has its "Blur" user interface. They are not doing anything to make them compatible.

OS X's kernal is open source. But its used in a closed and proprietary OS that cannot be modified.

Quote:
Originally Posted by atomicpolywog View Post

Because google still has a standardized SDK for devs to use? And it's in phone-maker's best interest, if they change anything at all, to keep it compatible with the standards google has laid out. Heck, Mac OS is based on an open source kernel... that hasn't stopped people from developing mac software...
post #153 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by Foo2 View Post

Oh, my, well, let's just try to distract people from the fact that the Android market is young and already highly fragmented, with many (most?) existing users who may never, ever see an update even to their security-blown, bug-ridden device.

I can see by the de-evolution of your posts to device insults that you're not going to be worth continuing to discuss anything with. My original point that actual upgrading Android is not as complex of a process as j-somthing made it out to be. That point has been proven. Anything else you want to say is just you stroking your own ego.
\Apple has always had competition. It's just been in its blind spot.
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\Apple has always had competition. It's just been in its blind spot.
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post #154 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by Superbass View Post

Now that there are more Android phones than iPhones, ...

There are not more Android phones than iPhones.

Android only topped iPhone sales for one quarter (and only in this not-yet-shown-to-be-accurate survey). At least in the US where 2-year contracts reign, you have to include at least the seven quarters prior to determine which OS has the most phones in use.
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post #155 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by Superbass View Post

Android is open source, but that doesn't mean the core libraries/framework/APIs are different from phone to phone. At this point, basically any program designed with the Android SDK will run on an Android phone. Sure, a phone maker could make drastic alterations to the basic code, but I don't think that will ever be the norm.

The capability of each phone is entirely different, the user interface of each phone are very different, how each phone works is radically different.


HTC Incredible vs. Nexus One

Quote:
That's because on day one iPhone OS was much more prevalent than Android. Now that there are more Android phones than iPhones, chances are a lot more developers will use it as their main platform. This is also just the tip of the iceberg with android phones, if you consider iPhone had a 1.5 year head start, and way more media coverage than any of the android phones.

Just understand that you are making a future prediction, that's not the current reality.
post #156 of 279
As long as iPhone is selling well and Apple is improving them and prospering in the process, who the hell cares about Android?

Daniel Swanson

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Daniel Swanson

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post #157 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by mark2005 View Post


Android has had an astounding 2 quarters for Motorola and HTC over on the other 3 carriers in the US. But I think Apple and others see a flaw in the Android business model, in that Android-aligned hardware makers will make little to no profit (especially with all the 2-for-1sales). Thus the model is not truly sustainable long-term given the rate at which new models are introduced and the rate at which new technology needs to be added. Nokia, RIM, Samsung (partially), and now HP all see the critical importance of owning the OS to avoid the low-margin fate that has befallen all of the undifferentiated Windows/Linux PC mfrs.

I don't actually know much about profit margins in the mobile business, but I was under the impression that the manufacturer sets the price they charge the carrier for the handsets, and then the carrier covers their loss on the 2-for-1 by signing people up for 2-year commitments to $30/mo data plans on their "free" phones. They already have enough margin on voice plans to give you a "free" new phone every 2 years... why wouldn't they be able to afford to make that free phone a cheap/free smartphone when they force you to pay more per month for the privilege of having one.
post #158 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeilM View Post

Doesn't seem surprising. There are multiple Android platform phones vs. essentially one iPhone family, and the current iPhone 3GS is nearing the end of its product lifecycle. It's interesting to note that phones such as Motorola's Droid are frequently the object of two-for-the-price-of-one sales and the like.

I think it has less to do with how many different Android models are available and more to do with the fact that ATT only addresses about 1/3 of the US market. By that I mean the number of suscribers, not geographic area. Android doesn't have to compete with iPhone on Sprint, Verizon, Tmobile, or any number of the smaller carriers across the country.

Regardless of the reason, Apple needs to get off it's ass and get iPhones on other networks. The more people who get on the Android bandwagon, the harder it will be to get them to switch to iPhone after they've invested hundreds of dollars on Android apps and games.

Back when iTunes music had DRM, how many folks bought 2nd and 3rd iPods because that's the only thing that would play their music? Right now Apple is letting Android have 2/3's of the US market unopposed, and it will cost them twice as much to get those folks to switch than it would to get them in the first place.
post #159 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by backtomac View Post

. Should Android gain a significantly higher market share than the iPhone then it will be in a commanding position to push for changes it would like to see. For the most part Android and iPhone have been pretty much in agreement with what they want. At least initially Google, like Apple, was pushing for HTML5.

But Android is not one unified platform. Motorola, HTC, Samsung and anyone else are not working together to advance Android. They are competing against each other to sell phones using a free OS.

Quote:
But that could change. Android seem to be more receptive to flash on its devices and Apple and Google are no longer as friendly as they were in 2007.

Google is receptive to Flash, that doesn't mean Flash will work out very well.
post #160 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

What you are describing is already not working. HTC has its "Enhanced Touch Sense" user interface and Motorola has its "Blur" user interface. They are not doing anything to make them compatible.

OS X's kernal is open source. But its used in a closed and proprietary OS that cannot be modified.

Sense and Blur are only skin-deep additions to the Android OS. They don't break application compatibility, and they don't have any bearing on the development process for app creators. Saying that they "aren't doing anything to make them compatible" is a nonsensical statement. You can download the same apps from the Android Market and they work exactly the same on Sense, Blur, or Stock Android.
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