NPD: Android phones now outsell Apple's iPhone in US - Page 7

Jetz is confirming what I said earlier and I confirmed what he said. Two completely different devices, so it's not just his phone that does it. Not to mention all the friend I have with different Android phones running 1.5, 1.6, and 2.1 confirming Android's updating process. There's no speculating. It's all OTA and it works. Maybe you should ask yourself why no one else is backing you up.

Look up 'anecdotal evidence'.

The fact that one or two anonymous people claim that it works isn't really relevant - especially when one of them admits that he was lying and doesn't really know if it works.

Read the report on this board from a few days ago. In the REAL world, people are not updating their Android phones because the updates are not available. No matter how much you wish it were otherwise.

Then why don't you search up a YouTube video for yourself on how the process works. Or go to an Android forum (gasp! blasphemy!) and ask there if what we say is true. You tell everyone to go look for the truth when an article writes something against Apple, but here you are taking the word of a single report on this site and not going to confirm it for yourself. In the real world, when an update is available for an Android phone, what I have shown is how the update is applied. OTA. There are plenty of articles out there that document this procedure when an update is made available.

We are saying two different things. Jetz and I are talking about the update process itself. You are talking about the schedule of updates.

You said something along the lines that Android users have to go and find the update manually and then apply it. What Jetz and I are saying is that that is false. The update (when made available) comes to the user.

There is no disagreement on the slowness of the updates. It's unfortunately something we have to bear with at the moment because of Android's open nature and allowing the manufacturers to give us consumers a variety of choices. That said, I do read reports of progress happening for Android phones still running 1.6 (HTC Heros mostly). The reports say that it'll happen around 5/21. Now I know you'll dismiss this, which is your choice. But I have the patience to wait until then to see what happens. The end of next week isn't that far away.

Verizon said the exact same thing for the 2.1 update for the Droid. There were some delays, but in the end, it got rolled out OTA and from Google's latest OS report, it seems that pretty much all the Droids moved on from 2.0.1 to 2.1.

Lets say that Sprint holds on its word for the 5/21 update. Then that means that the vast majority of Android phones will now be running on 2.1. Pair that with the fact that the majority of new flagship Android phones being released are with 2.1, we see how Android is starting to converge onto a single OS level.

You are correct. And in the real world, the vast majority of people never update their phones, ever. Or even think about it.

And in the real world, iPhone OS 4.0, coming out real soon now, will not work with iPhones which are being sold today.

That is kind of the way fast-moving technology works.

Back in the bad old days, people looked at the hardware requirements for the cool new OS and the cool new software, and if their low priced/old machine could not handle it, they either upgraded or they enjoyed their current system as-is.

I doubt that the inability to upgrade the OS on a cheap/old phone would disappoint many of the people who own such devices. And if it does, the remedy is easily available.

Not as many people are buying iPhones right now because they want to wait for the iPhone HD/4G to come out next month......duh http://www.macdaddynews.com/?p=2496

It depends what you mean by "destroy Android".

If you mean that the iPhone might pull ahead for a while, you may be correct. If you mean that Android sales will continue upwards at an accelerating pace, you might be right.

If you mean that once OS 4.0 comes out, interest in Android will dry up and Android will fade away, you are very likely incorrect.

How the heck is Android outselling iPhone given the strength of the App Store? All I can think of is, their prices are very good, or the iPhone has been too long in updating.

gotta keep in mind that it (appears to me) that the report is showing percent of sales for a given time period - not total overall sales ever. so for an essentially brand new device available on multiple networks with heavy marketing and discounting - to outsell in one quarter the iPhone which is not available on multiple networks - is not heavily discounted - and which has been a long time without an update and with an update pending - is not at all surprising.

Now - if the data showed that there was suddenly more total android phones in use out of all phones ever sold that might be different - or if it said that android sold more total units in 6 months than iPhone sold in 2 years - that might also be interesting.

even if you were to project future sales based on historical data - it might take quite a bit of time before the total install base of android exceeds iPhone.

anytime anyone wants to illustrate a point with a chart or graph - all they have to do is choose the proper data set - whether it is units or percent - or growth rate - etc - to show what they want you to see.

Even in a case of say IBM vs SUN - where IBM is selling more unix systems than SUN - SUN could claim that they are selling more CPUs than IBM - but what they would not tell you is that it takes 2 or 3 or 4 CPUs from SUN to equal the performance of 1 from IBM.

WELL 3 FOR 1 DEALS ABOUND

ANYWAY
APPLE IS DOOMED


peace

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Pretty much boils down to two reasons

1. As johnblack said, people know the next iPhone is coming
2. People love the Android platform and are buying them on all the networks

No one in their right mind is going to put down $200 on a 3GS when the new iPhone (whatever it's going to be called) is a month away for probably the same price.

And Android is being offered in some form on a vast amount of networks around the world. It's just a numbers game.

Both factors are relevant.

Another factor is that on most all the cell networks, some of the nicest phones are the Android phones.

And while the App Store is a strong selling point for the iPhone, Android already has the majority of the popular apps, along with some very strong exclusive apps. As good as it is, it is unlikely that the App Store will remain a major reason to choose the iPhone for too much longer.

"the next iPhone will destroy Android in sales"

Is that the iFanatic version of "Apple is doomed!".

Oh noes, new iPhone. Android is doomed!

The gap between the iPhone 3GS and the Android phones that were out in mid-2009 was a lot greater than the gap that'll be there between the iPhone HD/4G and the current generation of Android handsets. So if anything, Android is under less threat today from the iPhone than it was a year ago.

AT&T exclusivity. Look at how well the iPhone is doing in countries where it's on more than one carrier. Canada would be an interesting case study. The iPhone is on all 3 major carriers.

Again with the Verizon promotion...

Actually, I think Apple is pretty stupid for not doing a deal like this. They're sitting on an even bigger gold deposit and it's just plain ego that's keeping them from allowing a promotion like this. Could you imagine the sales spike if this were to happen?!

Is there any wonder why Verizon is the largest network in the US? This BOGO deal draws in customers. It's a proven fact.

I'm also sure many here would quickly reverse their opinion of the BOGO promotion once they see the spike in iPhone sales. Hell, they'll probably be singing "Apple's the first to innovate with the BOGO deal!"

Perhaps Apple can use their exclusivity to pressure AT&T to improve their network.

Worked like that on my Motorola Droid from 2.0 to 2.1 and from 2.1 to 2.1-update1 (what Apple would call 2.1.1). I hate the Droid phone. I miss my iPhone terribly. But Android is not bad, and it's getting better very, very fast. Coupled with Verizon's so-much-better-than-AT&T-where-I-live network, and I can see why Android is experiencing a usage surge.


2.1 is the last major version. There has been a small update to 2.1 released in the last few weeks.


Yes, fragmentation is a problem. Most Android apps will run on any phone with Android 1.5, however. Some require 2.0 and a handful require 2.1, but they'll run on any phone with the base Android version required. Google needs to better police manufacturers to get them to stop shipping handsets with old software. Being one revision back is no big deal, but some phones are still shipping with 1.5 today, which is crazy.


Good to see some things haven't changed from C.S.M.A. You're still very rude to people who don't share your every opinion.

If Apple were to announce iPhones on all four major US providers this June (if you add Verizon, which I pray they will, then adding T-Mobile and Sprint is easy), I think they still have a window where they could smother Android's growth and kick it back to fringe status. BlackBerry is a tougher nut to crack, because those devices are so carefully tailored to what their customers want.

When I had to switch to Verizon this past December because of the unreliability of AT&T's network where I live and work, the guy in the store relayed a somewhat similar story to what you're saying... while their BlackBerry's continued to sell at pace, as soon as the Droid came out it basically sucked up all other non free-phone purchases in the store. They had a wall of Windows phones, and he said they'd sold a total of three in the previous four months.

Keep in mind that it is not clear that Android is outselling the iPhone. In the most recent sales figures released, the iPhone was well ahead. This NPD survey suffers from a number of serious flaws:
- Self-selection
- Biased user base
- Limited geography.

Until we have the actual sales figures, we won't know.

However, Android is clearly doing well. There are a number of reasons for that and the reasons vary by vendor:

1. The survey is looking at ALL Android phones vs a single phone from Apple. That would be like saying "Mazda is doing better than GM because ALL Mazda automobiles together outsold the Malibu".
2. Clearly there was heavy discounting, including BOGO. That helps a lot. If they discontinue it, sales will likely drop. If they continue it, profitability suffers.
3. There is a significant pent up demand from carriers who are unable to get iPhones. Essentially a large number o Verizon customers who wanted iPhones but couldn't have them are switching in a fairly short period of time. Once that pent up demand is satisfied (or if Apple offers a Verizon iPhone), that pressure will drop
4. Some of the Android phones are actually pretty good phones. For the first time since the iPhone came out, there is real competition, so it's not surprising that it would sell well.
5. There is a known problem with Android fragmentation (see related story on AI a week or so ago). All those new users haven't seen the effects of that yet. Once they have to try to locate upgrades to run Flash this summer (assuming Adobe meets a deadline for a change), many of them will be frustrated with the complexity. OR, they may decide that Flash isn't all that important on a mobile device, anyway. Either way, Apple wins.

The actual sales figures will be interesting. It will also be interesting to see how well Android sales hold up over the coming quarters.

From this morning's DigitalDaily:

So NPD says smartphones running Googles (GOOG) Android are outselling Apples (AAPL) iPhone in the United States.

What does Apple think about NPDs claim?

Not much. Apple spokeswoman Natalie Harrison tells me the company isnt at all worried by the suggestion that Android sales in the states might have leapfrogged those of the iPhone particularly after IDCs report last week showing Apple as the third largest maker of converged devices in the world.

This is a very limited report on 150,000 US consumers responding to an online survey and does not account for the more than 85 million iPhone and iPod touch customers worldwide, she said of IDCs report. IDC figures show that iPhone has 16.1 percent of the smartphone market and growing, far outselling Android on a worldwide basis. We had a record quarter with iPhone sales growing by 131 percent and with our new iPhone OS 4.0 software coming this summer, we see no signs of the competition catching up anytime soon.

To succeed in business does not mean that your competitors must fail. It is a massive market and both the iPhone and Android offer different advantages to different people. Competition drives innovation and improvement and this is good for customers.

Use what works for you and you enjoy using. Getting all wrapped up in ideologies is a waste of time and deriving economic theory from the Highlander (there can be only one) is just plain foolishness.

Quote of the day right here.

alansky,

What did you expect Apple's PR woman to say?

nicely put. I think some people really get their shirt tails in a knot if someone dares say the competition has some great news and features. I didn't think anyone is saying android will dwarf the iphone, and I certainly wouldn't want to see that, anymore than I'd want to see the iphone dwarf everyone else either.

Competition is indeed good for everyone.


exactly.

Exactly. Her response is as "meh" to me as most of the articles the Apple sites are publishing in quick response say the figures are. Throw in some nice big numbers as well to seal the deal.

I would really like to see the actual sales numbers when/if they're available.

NPD's sample size is fairly large though. 150,000 is bigger than most towns in the US. I've seen plenty of Apple fans bust out the party balloons, wine and beer when surveys with much smaller sample sizes say that Apple's doing well.


Another nail in the "Android users need to hunt for their update files" coffin.


Now that you mention it, I do remember this. It was the "-update 1" part of Android that gave the Nexus One multitouch capabilities.

http://www.engadget.com/2010/02/02/n...es-multitouch/

Looks like Jetz was telling the truth. And I believe jragosta owes Jetz an apology for calling him a liar.


Mhmm.

No apologies needed. I am sure readers can judge the difference in credibility between, "I own and use a Nexus One and have user experience with Android." and, "I read it on the internets."

You can also wonder what would happen if Apple suddenly dropped prices on Macs for a while, used up some of their $billions in cash. But Apple doesn't need a lot of market share for their product to be profitable. They have one of the strongest and most influential brand image of any company, and the iPhone platform is designed from the ground up to feed users through the App store, where Apple can take 30% cut off of all media and apps. Its a very profitable system, and if iPhone 4 is competitive hardware wise to say the recent droid incredible, having BOGO free sales won't be that effective, they'll be selling enough already. Although given that you would need two people with their contracts up BOGO isn't as effective as one would think in the first place.

As profitable as their system is, a BOGO offer would do nothing more than increase those profits. Unless Apple did it right out of their own pockets, the BOGO deal would most likely be carrier driven. This means that the carriers would have already bought the stock from Apple at whatever negotiated price, so Apple doesn't lose anything there.

The buyer saves 50% on the equipment costs. The carrier loses out on whatever profit they would have made on the second handset, but gains in the additional line. Apple then gains marketshare and profit from yet another iPhone that's being used that otherwise wouldn't have been there. It's a win-win-win for everyone.

BOGO is actually meant more to draw in new customers than it is for people who already are in-contract with a carrier. However, you can bet that if a customer wants to take advantage of the BOGO when his contract's up, the carrier's sales rep will find a way to work it in. It's not unheard of for reps to move upgrade dates forward by months just so they can sign a pair in for another 2 years. Most of the time, those 2 years end up running 10 or more years. Lose a little in the short-run, gain a lotin the long-run.

Not sure why the Apple fans are so defensive about this. Apple's business strategy is not to sell the most cell phones. If it was, they would be on every carrier and selling an iPhone model at a free or $50 price point with a cheap data plan. Apple's plan is to own as much of the top 10 percent of users as possible. They need to maintain that as that'll earn them as much or more money than selling a lot of phones.

With Google's investment in AndroidOS and the "free" licensing model to OEMs, it was inevitable they would overtake Apple in units. They've done a good job with updating AndroidOS and working with OEMs to come out with good hardware.

It'll be interesting if AndroidOS passes RIM as many Blackberries don't need a data plan, resulting in lower costs. Inevitably some OEM and carrier will sell an Android device without a data plan or something like MediaNet or just messaging or something. It's always about price, price, price and having phones on as many places as possible. Phone and OS quality is a secondary feature when people are price sensitive.

Actually, price sensitive people still care about the the OS quality as well as the phone quality . This is not 2006 anymore. They expect that their phone will run the same apps that a high end phone does. They expect that the built of their phone will last them 2 years before they decide to upgrade.


Goggle will have a massive problem with that when support issues comes to the forefront and no amount of open source excuse BS from the techies and geeks will change that. Put it this way, if you check Apple's iPhone support forum, there are people who have problems with their iPhones that does not exist on most of the same iPhone configuration. There are apps that would not work on one iPhone, but will work on the same iPhone configuration. Now, consider the problems Google have with Nexus One and consider the multiple phone manufacturers with different configurations and alas, also different OS generations of the Android OS. If Apple is having a damned headache with it's own phone , can you imagine the frustrations of Android OS consumers when phone manufacturers and telecom providers are pointing to Goggle for support and Goggle is referring the problems back to the providers and manufacturers.

Realistically speaking, the Android OS will be abandoned and discarded not because it's inferior( in fact, it's relatively superior) to the iPhoneOS, WebOS, Windows 7 and other future phone OS , but because the real world expected that AndroidOS phones will not only work anywhere, but can buy any Apps from any Android store regardless of the owners phone configuration and OS only to find out that they are stuck because their hardware is one year obsolete , does not possessed the hardware or software specs needed to run the app or their OS is 2 upgrades behind. The mobile world is much more unforgiving than the computer world and Goggle must understand that very fact. Open source and multiple carriers and phone configurations as well as geek support can only carry Android OS so far. Without the ordinary people's support, it will be a failure to everybody concerned.

Pssst. The Droid Eris is now getting the 2.1 update on Verizon. Another nail in the coffin of your theory that Android devices won't get updated.

Go and Google it if you don't believe me. And only about a month after its big brother Droid got the 2.1 update. Android 1.6 will shrink by a good chunk after this update is done. Real world FTW

One device getting an update does not mean that all Android phones are getting updates. It was released in October 2009 and it [Uj]ust got v2.1 today[/U] when the Nexus One had in in early January, 2010.

The majority are NOT getting updates, the ones that are getting updates are getting them well AFTER other phones already have them and let's see which Android phones are getting updates for a full three years.

You can spin it all you want but Apple's balanced and controlled update release schedule is much satisfying to users. I know that the 3G and 3GS will be updated to v4.0 right around the same time as the iPhone HD is released.

Spin it all you want but it shows that progress is being made towards getting Android phones on the same level. Some progress is better than no progress. Considering HTC was busy getting Sense to work on 2.1 for rhe EVO and Incredible up in between the time the Nexus One debuted I'm not surprised it took this long.

In a way, that makes a lot of development sense (no pun intended). Develop two of the hottest new Android phones and from the fallout comes the 2.1 Sense update that can be applied towards already released HTC Android phones. Everything done in one sweep.

If Sprint makes good on their May 21 date for the HTC Hero (also relient on Sense running on 2.1), it just adds to the progress.

But we will see what the future holds.

I just don't by fragmentation is all that big a deal. Didn't stop Windows from dominating the PC world. So how much damage can it really do to Android in the smarphone world?

And some fragmentation has to happen to make progress. Heck, even Apple admits that. Just look at OS 4 and how it'll be implement on iPhone 3G or not at all on iPhone 2G. Does anybody think that's a bad thing?

That said, Google's in a worse spot with fragmentation and it behooves them to tighten the leash a little when it comes to the OEMs.



But in the end it comes to down to it, it's all about networks and price plans anyway. With the exception of hardcore fans (on any platform), most people will look for coverage and a plan first and then shop for the phone after. No matter how good the iPhone, if it's not on a network a user wants, it's not really an option. Apple has tied the iPhone's fortunes to AT&T.

People assume that everyone's life is centered around whether their phone is running the very latest OS, but it seems more people tend to, er, have a life.

Apple makes a great product, and I certainly have enough of them, but sometimes, the elitism attitude I see in some is tiring. I often picture the comic book man from the simpsons ranting endlessly about facts and figures (or apparent facts that came from the internets and stuffs ) as if it somehow, really really matters.

Well it's really really important stuff I guess!

proven fact ?? an apple product lasts a long time and gets passed on .
these crap plastic phones just add to the worlds toxic problems .


in the end their is no free lunch . sorry bob

peace 9

Don't agree with you. I think people are smart enough to understand why a $50 or free phone looks and feel lower quality then a $200 phone, that it won't be able to run the same apps as the high end ones. There's already been a lot of history in the cell phone market where the free phones and cheap phones are exactly what the consumer got, a rather crappy phone. In the smartphone world which is gradually just become the overall cell phone world, there will be a stratification. A Droid Eris is cheaper than Droid for obvious reasons.


I don't think they'll fall into this trap. They just won't give tech support, and customers will come to accept it or the carrier will take the brunt of the tech support.


I think AndroidOS will be forked eventually. Some handset company or carrier will take AndroidOS and make it their own. This will result in fiefdoms (the current situation) which is the next best thing for Apple.

Naw. It would go "While the BOGO deal has existed as a faltering category for some time, Apple has been the first to finally do it right. It took many years, but Apple will not release a new deal before it has been perfected".

Actually, with the help of the developers, Android devices can extend their lives. There's even ROMs for Android 2.1 optimized for the G1 today! Plenty of sites, videos, and there's even an app dedicated to make this process as simple and quick as possible. It's logically called "ROM Manager" and it lets you search for the right ROM and any optional overclocking kernels you might want and automatically does the application for you. A little bit of reading's all that's needed to get the average user familiar with what does what.

My Droid has already been eclipsed by the Nexus One, Incredible and EVO (just to name a few). According to you, I should be feeling regret for purchasing it. However, I've got it rooted and it has a custom 2.1 ROM with a kernel allowing it to be overclocked to match the speed of the newer phones. Benchmark apps have put it roughly on-par with a stock Nexus One.

But that's only limited to the techies, you might say. True, but when it comes to Android, there's always one in a group of friends that know how to do all this and will guide the unsure through the process.

Add to all of this the ability for Android to make system image backups on-device makes takes the fear out of the process. If something goes wrong, go back and restore from that image and it's like it never happened.

So actually, there's nothing for me to be sorry about!

good answer
peace bob
the google phones
are not so bad of course

its just that i am a hopeless fan boy

nokia still sucks


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