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Apple's iPad believed to be outselling Macs in the US

post #1 of 121
Thread Starter 
A new forecast predicts Apple is now selling more than 200,000 iPads per week in the U.S., a total greater than the estimated 110,000 Macs sold stateside every seven days.

Analyst Mike Abramsky with RBC Capital Markets issued a note to investors Thursday in which he suggested iPad sales are now just below that of the iPhone 3GS in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2010, when the pace was at 246,000 per week. Abramsky cited checks with sources indicating that sales remain strong, thanks to sustained word-of-mouth for the product.

"Retail store checks in mid-May show widespread iPad stockouts at Apple retail stores and Best Buy," Abramsky wrote. "(More than 25 percent) of Apple stores have only selected Wi-Fi iPads (3G sold out) and are allocating to waiting lists)."

That's the same story AppleInsider discovered earlier this month, when a survey of 10 Apple retail stores from across the country found that all were sold out of the iPad 3G, and availability of the Wi-Fi-only model was limited. Customers who want the iPad 3G can sign up for Apple's "Notify Me" service, which will e-mail customers when the product comes back in stock.

Abramsky said he believes Apple has pre-sold about 600,000 units in the countries where the iPad is set to launch this summer. The iPad will become available in nine more countries on May 28: Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Span, Switzerland and the U.K.

In all, Abramsky believes Apple will sell 8 million iPads in calendar year 2010. That's up from his previous prediction of 5 million iPads in calendar 2010. The analyst believes the product will result in 25 percent cannibalization, but increase revenue to $59.7 billion, and $13.40 earnings per share (up from $58.3 billion and $13.06) in Apple's 2010 fiscal year. He also reiterated his price target of $350 for AAPL stock.





Abramsky also issued a second note Tuesday, revealing the results of an RBC survey of 1,000 respondents about potential future iPhone purchases. The questionnaire found that 20 percent were likely to purchase Apple's next-generation iPhone, expected to be released in June.

The survey also found that 50 percent of first-generation iPhone and iPhone 3G users plan to purchase Apple's handset upgrade. Abramsky said that equates to between 9 million and 10 million prospective buyers.

Most users (16 percent) are interested in a faster device, with speed being their top buying reason. Another 11 percent want iPhone OS 4, while 10 percent want an improved camera. Only 4 percent were interested in multitasking, and another 4 percent in video chat, suggesting they are not major phone-selling features.

Of those surveyed, 54 percent said they are willing to pay $299 for a higher-capacity next-generation iPhone, versus 46 percent who would only pay $199 for the lower capacity. Abramsky said a higher mix of $299 iPhone sales will benefit Apple's margins. The analyst believes Apple will sell 40 million iPhones in the 2010 calendar year.
post #2 of 121
Ha! They reached that milestone pretty rapidly.
post #3 of 121
The iPad is sure making things interesting.
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post #4 of 121
I have ordered an iPad (arriving next week) but it will not stop me upgrading my Mac when the next model comes out.

What it has made me reconsider is whether I really need to upgrade my iPhone 3G to a 4G. Because if I have the iPad for 3rd party apps, then the phone is mostly just email, and even a crappy old 3G (non-S) is fine for that.
post #5 of 121
I'm happy for Apple that they are having success with this product. But I sure don't understand it. A real MacBook is such a better choice.
post #6 of 121
Looks like Apple needs to report their numbers again, the bullsh*t artists and stock manipulators are at work again.

What was the last BS article? That Apple has sold 500,000 iPads when they acknowledged it was 300,000?

Perhaps that's the purpose, to get Apple to report by stating something ultra-outrageous.


Quote:
"Retail store checks in mid-May show widespread iPad stockouts at Apple retail stores and Best Buy," Abramsky wrote. "(More than 25 percent) of Apple stores have only selected Wi-Fi iPads (3G sold out) and are allocating to waiting lists)."

Reducing supply below demand is a marketing trick.

It can be detrimental as people get over their impulsiveness to buy a iPad and reconsider, realizing the iPads limitations and it's dependence upon a computer for it's updates/operation.

Hmm, could Apple be restricting iPad supply to get people to buy a Mac instead?

Apple is always upselling, always.
post #7 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerseymac View Post

I'm happy for Apple that they are having success with this product. But I sure don't understand it. A real MacBook is such a better choice.

A better choice for what?
Running iPad apps?
Taking on a trip for a few emails, short letter to the boss and watching a movie on the aiplane?

Based on your comment, a Mac Pro would be a better choice than either an iPad or a MacBook.
post #8 of 121
Quote:
What it has made me reconsider is whether I really need to upgrade my iPhone 3G to a 4G. Because if I have the iPad for 3rd party apps, then the phone is mostly just email, and even a crappy old 3G (non-S) is fine for that.

If you have a 3GS I might agree, but iPhone OS 4.0 is really quite nifty, and you're not going to be able to use its full capabilities with a 3G.

Quote:
I'm happy for Apple that they are having success with this product. But I sure don't understand it. A real MacBook is such a better choice.

A 1.5 pound device that you don't even have to remove from your carry-on in an airport and can run zillions of apps and do all your casual computing needs... at half the cost? Yeah, who would ever want that?
post #9 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Looks like Apple needs to report their numbers again, the bullsh*t artists and stock manipulators are at work again.

What was the last BS article? That Apple has sold 500,000 iPads when they acknowledged it was 300,000?

Perhaps that's the purpose, to get Apple to report by stating something ultra-outrageous.

I don't think it's outrageous at all -- it might even prove conservative. We know they sold 1 million in a month, we know that iPad supplies continue to be constrained in the US, we know that they are rolling it out internationally. After the international rollout, we then move into back-to-school and holidays. It really doesn't take much imagination at all to see how they will continue selling at a rate of about 1 million per month.
post #10 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Looks like Apple needs to report their numbers again, the bullsh*t artists and stock manipulators are at work again.

What was the last BS article? That Apple has sold 500,000 iPads when they acknowledged it was 300,000?

Perhaps that's the purpose, to get Apple to report by stating something ultra-outrageous.

Reducing supply below demand is a marketing trick.

It can be detrimental as people get over their impulsiveness to buy a iPad and reconsider, realizing the iPads limitations and it's dependence upon a computer for it's updates/operation.

Hmm, could Apple be restricting iPad supply to get people to buy a Mac instead?

Apple is always upselling, always.


Wow. You must work for Apple, to have such inside insight! And, Apple's demand forecasting system must be accurate enough to the last decimal point, even though the iPad is a completely new product category!

post #11 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

I don't think it's outrageous at all -- it might even prove conservative. We know they sold 1 million in a month, we know that iPad supplies continue to be constrained in the US, we know that they are rolling it out internationally. After the international rollout, we then move into back-to-school and holidays. It really doesn't take much imagination at all to see how they will continue selling at a rate of about 1 million per month.

You might be right, but I rather hear the numbers from Apple.
post #12 of 121
I think his basis on sales is off. Manufacturing build rate doesn't seem to be at the million-per-month range yet. I'd guess Apple is approaching 1.5MM units sold right now, but I don't think they will hit a 1.5MM per month build rate until after the Fall OS4.0 update.

Lost my iPhone. Now I am iPad + RAZR. Still not quite sure what to think of myself... expect to upgrade next month, but... not entirely sure.
post #13 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Of those surveyed, 54 percent said they are willing to pay $299 for a higher-capacity next-generation iPhone, versus 46 percent who would only pay $199 for the lower capacity.

I actually thought the opposite. Now that I own an iPad, I don't need the space on iPhone for movies, thus why pay for a larger-capacity iPhone? \ I guess bigger is better...
post #14 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris_CA View Post

A better choice for what?
Running iPad apps?
Taking on a trip for a few emails, short letter to the boss and watching a movie on the aiplane?

Based on your comment, a Mac Pro would be a better choice than either an iPad or a MacBook.

Agreed. The MacBook pro is a perfect machine because it runs everything, even Windoze apps.
post #15 of 121
I am not surprised. Anybody who didn't think the iPad would be a runaway success were very wrong. Here's a very good summary of exactly why the iPad will outsell every other personal computer ever made, by a guy named Chuck Hollis (and its pretty funny, too)
What the iPad did to my family
post #16 of 121
This is just the beginning. To a knowledgeable tech person (or business person) the iPad doesn't replace anything, but this is what the average person can use as their sole device on a daily basis.

The Jobs email to that guy at Gawker was very telling when Jobs said that the PC is changing and some may not accept it. People may not want to hear it but this, and other future touchscreen Apple products, are the future of the Mac.
post #17 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerseymac View Post

I'm happy for Apple that they are having success with this product. But I sure don't understand it. A real MacBook is such a better choice.


Heck, a good Netbook is a better choice. I don't get it either.
post #18 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Apple is always upselling, always.


And they seem to be very good at it.

Likely, that is one reason for their limited lineup of products. They make the upgrade path is an easy choice for buyers.
post #19 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

... then the phone is mostly just email, and even a crappy old 3G (non-S) is fine for that.

Wow, it doesn't take long to descend to the dregs eh?

As I read many, many years ago now, talking of computers: "If it works, it's obsolete". \
post #20 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stevie View Post

Heck, a good Netbook is a better choice. I don't get it either.

No way. I just spent ten days traveling with an iPad and it was so much more pleasurable than any notebook I've hauled around for the same purpose. If these numbers hold up, the never used one but still don't like it crowd are going to be very confused.
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post #21 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerseymac View Post

I'm happy for Apple that they are having success with this product. But I sure don't understand it. A real MacBook is such a better choice.

The fact of the matter is that the typical Apple customer is buying multiple Apple products, not just one and also likely has a PC in the household as well.

On average, Apple's customers are considerably more affluent than those of their competitors. The underaged fanboys here still living with Mommy aren't the average Apple consumer.
post #22 of 121
it's really not that surprising. hot new product by Apple, solution for those that want the whole app store thing but hate ATT (or at least being tied to them for 2 full years) and/or thought the iphone/touch was too small to really be useful (but they don't feel the need for a full notebook)
and it costs a fraction of a computer.

every new phone, ipod sells way more units than computers when it first releases also.

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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post #23 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by str1f3 View Post

To a knowledgeable tech person (or business person) the iPad doesn't replace anything

Hmm, I'm a programmer and IF I can find an app/hardware combo for the iPad that will allow me to lay down 4 MIDI/Audio tracks and transfer them to my iMac then I've just replaced my iBook. Maybe it's already there ... or maybe I need to get coding!

Horses for courses.
post #24 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Hmm, could Apple be restricting iPad supply to get people to buy a Mac instead?

Doesn't seem like it's working.
post #25 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by str1f3 View Post

People may not want to hear it but this, and other future touchscreen Apple products, are the future of the Mac.

I disagree with the notion that all Macs will go touchscreen. but the portables sure, especially for general consumers, likely will. Starting with the Macbook and perhaps Air.

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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post #26 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by ElmCityWeb View Post

The iPad is sure making things interesting.

Not bad for a device that was declared an "EIPIC FAIL" by the resident trolls because it doesn't have a USB port. And all us, fanboys and trolls alike, need to finally realize that our preferences and opinions are meaningless in the face of the mass market. We are an ittsy-bittsy, teesy-weensy minority who would like to think we know what will sell and what will not. Calling the mass market too dumb or too stupid to know what they need only shows our own complete ignorance.
post #27 of 121
It is no surprise the iPad is outpacing the Mac. I believe sales of the Macs will still climb though as most of the sales, I believe, are coming from people who've never owned a Mac. The iPads I've seen up close were owned by people I've known who've never owned a Mac before. Maybe an iPod or iPhone but not a Mac.
post #28 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

No way. I just spent ten days traveling with an iPad and it was so much more pleasurable than any notebook I've hauled around for the same purpose. If these numbers hold up, the never used one but still don't like it crowd are going to be very confused.

I can understand that the iPad would work well for traveling. But for everyday use?

The more I think about it, the less I want a tablet as a multi-purpose device. I can see the allure of cheap tablets laying around the house, each perhaps with limited useability, but each one working well for limited tasks.

But for a general-use portable, especially for watching video and surfing the web, I'm starting to think that the whole tablet form factor is flawed.

They seem great for reading text, however. I used to carry around 25 full length novels on my PDA. Add a bunch of movies and other entertainment, and I can see why a tablet would be great for traveling.

But in the evenings, when I've retired to my stateroom, I'd rather have a real computer at my disposal. Just sitting there, already booted up, and left running for the duration. The little pad can't replace that.
post #29 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

I disagree with the notion that all Macs will go touchscreen. but the portables sure, especially for general consumers, likely will. Starting with the Macbook and perhaps Air.

Eventually, there will be no such thing as a "Mac".
post #30 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Apple's iPad believed to be outselling Macs in US

well its not going to have outsold macs anywhere else yet is it?
post #31 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

I disagree with the notion that all Macs will go touchscreen. but the portables sure, especially for general consumers, likely will. Starting with the Macbook and perhaps Air.

I doubt it, at least not without major changes to the OSX UI, which even if it comes, is still a long way off. The functional appeal of the iPad is that the UI is designed to work with this type of hardware. Slapping a touch interface onto of a desktop OS is not the Apple way of problem solving.
Please don't be insane.
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post #32 of 121
APPLE is preparing for international launch of Ipad and diverting most of its suppliers to producing product for that launch. That is why it's almost impossible to find an IPAD in the U.S. at this time
As for the sales beating out MACs: Might be possible, as the novelty, and gray market buying for overseas have definitely spiked the demand but this is not sustainable in the long run.
Hard to believe that people are favoring a Media device over a laptop but in the short run maybe.

Lastly, I'd like to know how the analyst in this story got his volume conclusion when APPLE has NOT made any statements after the one about selling a million IPADS in 28 days.
Also most stores haven't had any IPADS for over 2 weeks.
post #33 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

I doubt it, at least not without major changes to the OSX UI, which even if it comes, is still a long way off. The functional appeal of the iPad is that the UI is designed to work with this type of hardware. Slapping a touch interface onto of a desktop OS is not the Apple way of problem solving.

well said. slapping a touch interface onto a desktop OS sounds much more like Microsoft than Apple.
post #34 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stevie View Post

I can understand that the iPad would work well for traveling. But for everyday use?

The more I think about it, the less I want a tablet as a multi-purpose device. I can see the allure of cheap tablets laying around the house, each perhaps with limited useability, but each one working well for limited tasks.

But for a general-use portable, especially for watching video and surfing the web, I'm starting to think that the whole tablet form factor is flawed.

They seem great for reading text, however. I used to carry around 25 full length novels on my PDA. Add a bunch of movies and other entertainment, and I can see why a tablet would be great for traveling.

But in the evenings, when I've retired to my stateroom, I'd rather have a real computer at my disposal. Just sitting there, already booted up, and left running for the duration. The little pad can't replace that.

It worked every day for ten day for me, and I suspect it would for a great many people. The iPad is always booted up and seems quite real to me for actual (as opposed to theoretical) purposes.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #35 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

I have ordered an iPad (arriving next week) but it will not stop me upgrading my Mac when the next model comes out.

What it has made me reconsider is whether I really need to upgrade my iPhone 3G to a 4G. Because if I have the iPad for 3rd party apps, then the phone is mostly just email, and even a crappy old 3G (non-S) is fine for that.

Yep. They don't make it easy. My approach is: There are days when I will leave the house only with an iPhone, Re. playtime but still want to be connected via email, text, To Do lists, Internet, etc.

There are days when I will carry the iPhone and the iPad, Re. using the iPad for making proposals, showing reports to clients, etc. Yes there's overlap. But doing email, apps, browsing so much more enjoyable on iPad.

And then sometimes I'll need the MBA to sit in a restaurant by the lake and work.

I think one just has to resign themselves that there is overlap and yes the initial investment can be expensive, but having all three sure makes life/work more efficient, productive and therefore worth it!
post #36 of 121
This wont last long, the Hanvon TouchPad is coming to destroy Apple and the iPad.

iPod nano 5th Gen 8GB Orange, iPad 3rd Gen WiFi 32GB White
MacBook Pro 15" Core i7 2.66GHz 8GB RAM 120GB Intel 320M
Mac mini Core 2 Duo 2.4GHz 8GB RAM, iPhone 5 32GB Black

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iPod nano 5th Gen 8GB Orange, iPad 3rd Gen WiFi 32GB White
MacBook Pro 15" Core i7 2.66GHz 8GB RAM 120GB Intel 320M
Mac mini Core 2 Duo 2.4GHz 8GB RAM, iPhone 5 32GB Black

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post #37 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stevie View Post

I can understand that the iPad would work well for traveling. But for everyday use?

The more I think about it, the less I want a tablet as a multi-purpose device. I can see the allure of cheap tablets laying around the house, each perhaps with limited useability, but each one working well for limited tasks.

But for a general-use portable, especially for watching video and surfing the web, I'm starting to think that the whole tablet form factor is flawed.

They seem great for reading text, however. I used to carry around 25 full length novels on my PDA. Add a bunch of movies and other entertainment, and I can see why a tablet would be great for traveling.

But in the evenings, when I've retired to my stateroom, I'd rather have a real computer at my disposal. Just sitting there, already booted up, and left running for the duration. The little pad can't replace that.

"retired to my stateroom". That's code for surfing prOn, right?
post #38 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

It worked every day for ten day for me, and I suspect it would for a great many people. The iPad is always booted up and seems quite real to me for actual (as opposed to theoretical) purposes.


Sounds great. I understand that for traveling, for lots of people, the iPad could be great.

I question whether it might be best for me, for an everyday casual use device.

I'd love a good/real web browser tablet on my couch. An ebook reader next to the bed.

But for anything/everything else, for me, I prefer a full experience and the ability to have a real keyboard and the convenience of not having to hold the damn thing every second.

So I question my former interest in tablet computers. And I question whether my disappointment with the limitations of the iPad. I'm not sure what I was thinking a tablet computer might be.

ISTM that the iPad is neither simple/cheap enough to have multiple ones laying around the house, ready to be taken to the beach or on the bus or to the throne. And it is not capable enough to do everything well.

So I'm in a quandry, but I'm impressed with the capabilities and longevity of my kid's netbook. It is as capable as my old laptop - more even. It has a webcam and wireless n, and it lasts all day unplugged. It outputs 1080p/5.1 channel sound via HDMI.

And I could have bought 3 of them for the price of some iPads, with money left over for cool software..
post #39 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doctor David View Post

"retired to my stateroom". That's code for surfing prOn, right?

I was trying to sound classy about it....
post #40 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

I disagree with the notion that all Macs will go touchscreen. but the portables sure, especially for general consumers, likely will. Starting with the Macbook and perhaps Air.

I eventually expect to see an Surface-type iMac device that rests on your desk at an elevated position instead of just lying flat like the MS Surface. I wouldn't be surprised either if it was running Intel hardware. Instead of using keyboard shortcuts it will gesture-based with the multitouch dictionary Apple has patented twice over the past three years. Companies like Adobe will have to rethink the UI for their pro apps which most would say is a long time coming. Features will not be lost but rearranged.

I have seen Jobs write the PC is changing, the recent iPad ad says this is just the beginning and Ive says at the end of the iPad guided tour that this is direction they're headed in. I don't think the change is immediate and will probably take place over a decade. It will be interesting to see what Jobs has to say at the All Things D conference.
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