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iPad has 91% consumer satisfaction, demand greater than pre-launch - Page 2

post #41 of 56
5/20/10 at 3:56pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smurfman View Post

Does anyone know where there is an iPad 3G IN STOCK?? For 2 weeks now I can't seem to get my hands on one! Checked multiple sellers but nothing is in stock. Maybe some of you know a good place to go to get the iPad 3G??

Your best bet is to order it from the Apple Store online. You can keep waiting and hoping for them to become available, but you're likely to be waiting another few weeks. If you had just ordered online, your unit might be on its way now instead of leaving you still wondering.

Not that online ordering necessarily means you'll get one soon. I know someone who ordered one from Apple. It "shipped" on Monday morning and was supposed to be delivered tomorrow. But according to Fedex tracking information at this very moment, it still hasn't even left China yet, sitting in Hong Kong for the last two days. Somehow, I don't think he's getting it tomorrow.
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post #42 of 56
5/20/10 at 4:13pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post


...too bad you're not very good at it!

Gave me a good laugh on a terrible AAPL stock day. (down $10.58...ouch!)

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #43 of 56
5/20/10 at 4:19pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by plus View Post

SpamSandwich'es caustic tone aside, there IS one thing that ought to be included in every discussion of the results from ChangeWave:

The consumers surveyed by ChangeWave are members of the "ChangeWave Alliance" - a pool of volunteers who are carefully chosen (by-application-only) to represent leading-edge thinking. They are NOT chosen to be statistically representative of the general market, and are not intended to be.

So the meaning of the various adoption and preference rates that ChangeWave reports are NOT (and, again, are not intended to be) a simple statistical approximation of the (current) market at large. This is very different from 'most all other market data/surveys one sees.

The ChangeWave surveys ARE intended to illuminate trends. The quantitative statements (like "X% own an iPad so far" and "Y% intend to buy one soon") are still valuable and meaningful, but (mostly) in the context of comparing one ChangeWave survey to another ChangeWave survey (like their report that the pre-launch interest in the iPad was greater than the correspondingly-timed pre-launch interest in the iPhone).

Disclosure: I say all this as a member of said ChangeWave Alliance (who does not (yet) own an iPad ). I do not otherwise speak for them. Anyone interested in applying for membership (it's quite informative) can apply at their web site: http://alliance.changewave.com/

Paul

I appreciate your forthrightness, something that is not immediately discernible by AI edited ChangeWave prognostications shoehorned into the phantasmagorical headline of the minute. These surveys represent an infinitesimally small sampling of the population at large, rendering them largely useless. Having first-hand experience with the inherent biases and unreliability of marketing surveys, this cements my view.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #44 of 56
5/20/10 at 4:20pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kolchak View Post

Not that online ordering necessarily means you'll get one soon. I know someone who ordered one from Apple. It "shipped" on Monday morning and was supposed to be delivered tomorrow. But according to Fedex tracking information at this very moment, it still hasn't even left China yet, sitting in Hong Kong for the last two days. Somehow, I don't think he's getting it tomorrow.

Don't believe the tracking info. According to the tracking on my pre-order, my iPad was still in China when the package was placed in my hands -- and I'm pretty sure I don't live in China.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #45 of 56
5/20/10 at 4:45pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by doyourownthing View Post

i cannot wait to see the sale figures when ipad hits europe...they'll eat it up over there

quite possibly the pad will not sell well here initially - our economies are crumbling. have you seen what the euro is worth today - compared to 1 year ago? good for export but not for buying apple stuff.

and now we're getting huge wage cuts 15%-25% in many countries and more to follow....

i know lots of people interested in the pad, even wanting to buy one, but i don't know anyone who's going to buy one this year.
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post #46 of 56
5/20/10 at 4:52pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

...and I'm pretty sure I don't live in China.

Do you owe money on your mortgage? I wouldn't be too sure about that.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #47 of 56
5/20/10 at 5:04pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

The results of the two surveys conducted in May were revealed Thursday by ChangeWave. One polled 3,174 consumers to measure future demand for the iPad, while a second survey of 153 new iPad owners set out to discover their impressions of the device.

I hate to say it, but both surveys were done on an insignificantly (and insultingly) low number of people.

Any surveyor should be able to find 153 satisfied new owners of anything. I'll check back when there's a survey of a measurable percentage of consumers and iPad owners.
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post #48 of 56
5/20/10 at 6:43pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Gave me a good laugh on a terrible AAPL stock day. (down $10.58...ouch!)

And I have to explain why I refused to sell at 270 to my wife ... my defense is lack of crystal ball or is that balls
Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
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Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
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post #49 of 56
5/20/10 at 6:46pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post


So what I'm thinking is the iPad will mostly be a Mac user thing.

Possibly, but remember most of the Mac users are switchers these days
Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
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Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
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post #50 of 56
5/20/10 at 7:31pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by sippincider View Post

I hate to say it, but both surveys were done on an insignificantly (and insultingly) low number of people.

Any surveyor should be able to find 153 satisfied new owners of anything. I'll check back when there's a survey of a measurable percentage of consumers and iPad owners.

i agree completely. Changewave is a joke.
any fool who thinks a survey of 153 people is going to give you an accurate number on anything is out of their mind. even the TOTAL number of consumers they polled [3,174] equates to 0.00001% of the US population, giving these numbers a margin of error of more than 90%

[so accounting for margin of error, somewhere between 0 and 94% of the population is very likely to buy an iPad, and somewhere between 0 and 99% of the population is "somewhat likely" to buy an iPad]

Paul Carton [Director of Changewave] should be embarrassed that he released these "statistics" and should go take an intro to probably and statistics class at the closest community college [or high school].

FURTHERMORE, Changewave only polls a TOTAL of 25,000 "Business, Technology, and Medical Professionals - as well as early adopters"
in other words, 7 in every 100 rich people [give or take 90 people] and people who buy tons of new gadgets are very likely to buy an iPad.

utterly useless.
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post #51 of 56
5/20/10 at 10:05pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by desarc View Post

i agree completely. Changewave is a joke.
any fool who thinks a survey of 153 people is going to give you an accurate number on anything is out of their mind. even the TOTAL number of consumers they polled [3,174] equates to 0.00001% of the US population, giving these numbers a margin of error of more than 90%

[so accounting for margin of error, somewhere between 0 and 94% of the population is very likely to buy an iPad, and somewhere between 0 and 99% of the population is "somewhat likely" to buy an iPad]

Paul Carton [Director of Changewave] should be embarrassed that he released these "statistics" and should go take an intro to probably and statistics class at the closest community college [or high school].

FURTHERMORE, Changewave only polls a TOTAL of 25,000 "Business, Technology, and Medical Professionals - as well as early adopters"
in other words, 7 in every 100 rich people [give or take 90 people] and people who buy tons of new gadgets are very likely to buy an iPad.

utterly useless.

I suppose you must think ChangeWave does this stuff for fun, or just to annoy you.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #52 of 56
5/20/10 at 10:48pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

...So what I'm thinking is the iPad will mostly be a Mac user thing.

The numbers I read in another article imply that is probably not the case. The estimate was that Apple is currently selling about 100,000 Macs per week and 200,000 iPads per week. The iPad is less expensive so in that regard it may not be surprising. But the implication drawn in the article is that this implies that just like the iPod there will soon be more iPads than Macs. So if this trend continues, and it seems almost certain as iPad ships to more foreign markets, the iPad will be a larger market than the Mac just like the iPod and iPhone.

I suppose it is a much smaller market than the consumer market but Mac sales are likely to grow since development for the iPod (touch), iPhone and iPad all require the developer to use a Mac. I don't buy the other conspiracy theories about Flash but I do suspect one reason for the no intermediate layer policy is to drive sales of Macs to otherwise cheap ass developers. By the way this goes all the way back to the mid 80's when Apple would not put arrow keys on the keyboard (to limit minimal change ports) and discouraging CP/M ports to the Mac. Of course you had to have a Lisa in those days to develop for the Mac.
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post #53 of 56
5/21/10 at 1:01am
I'd be more surprised if more people didn't like the iPad.
The only people I can tell who don't like the iPad are the Apple haters and anti-Apple pundits.
http://www.grammarbook.com/punctuation/quotes.asp

Never argue with idiots, they'll bring you down to their level and beat you with experience. - a bumper sticker

Never quote idiots, they just clog up...
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http://www.grammarbook.com/punctuation/quotes.asp

Never argue with idiots, they'll bring you down to their level and beat you with experience. - a bumper sticker

Never quote idiots, they just clog up...
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post #54 of 56
5/21/10 at 1:38am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Don't believe the tracking info. According to the tracking on my pre-order, my iPad was still in China when the package was placed in my hands -- and I'm pretty sure I don't live in China.

In this case, it's true. Fedex confirmed that Apple deliveries are currently backed up in China, not just this particular delivery.
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post #55 of 56
5/21/10 at 6:19am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Don't believe the tracking info. According to the tracking on my pre-order, my iPad was still in China when the package was placed in my hands -- and I'm pretty sure I don't live in China.

Of course you don't.

You're experiencing Apples Time Machine v. 2.0. They found that the factory was not able to produce iPads quickly enough so they improved Time Machine so that it could deliver the product to customers before it was produced. That ended up being easier than fixing the manufacturing supply constraints.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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post #56 of 56
5/21/10 at 10:29am
Quote:
Originally Posted by sippincider View Post

I hate to say it, but both surveys were done on an insignificantly (and insultingly) low number of people.

Any surveyor should be able to find 153 satisfied new owners of anything. I'll check back when there's a survey of a measurable percentage of consumers and iPad owners.

As I said in my comment above:
Quote:
Originally Posted by plus View Post

The consumers surveyed by ChangeWave are members of the "ChangeWave Alliance" - a pool of volunteers who are carefully chosen (by-application-only) to represent leading-edge thinking. They are NOT chosen to be statistically representative of the general market, and are not intended to be.

Your objection is predicated an an assumed survey methodology--the common statistical methodology that most market surveys use. But this happens to NOT be how ChangeWave works. So they weren't out looking for people to survey on this (or any) topic - they were surveying an EXISTING collection of people who they have found (empirically) to be relatively good leading indicators of what the broader (at least U.S.) market does. That is, the ChangeWave Alliance is chosen to be opinion leaders/influencers, and not simply statistically representative of the masses.

I would again appeal to AppleInsider (and all other commentators) to take pains to point out this methodological uniqueness any time they cite ChangeWave's results. Many of us find them interesting, informative, and even to hold (investible) predicative power, but interpreting them definitely requires at least SOME understanding of their unique methodology.

Paul Lustgarten
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