Originally Posted by anonymouse
It's easy to be on a "meteoric growth curve" when you are growing from nothing, but, the more you grow, the more difficult it is to maintain that curve, so it's not surprising to see, and perhaps not meaningful to point this out, in relation to iPhone growth.
Don't these curves follow several traditional trajectories?
I've seen a lot of curves for new products that are very flat near the left, as the early adopters buy them, and then get steeper and steeper as they enter an exponential growth portion of the curve, but then tend to flatten out again as they become mature.
I think that Android is in the exponential growth phase, while iPhone OS has become a more mature product. If/when Apple goes to more US carriers, I would expect the curve to get much steeper, very quickly, given that to a lot of consumers, it would represent a new product.
But none of this can really be used to predict the level at which the curve will flatten out, or whether it will remain flat, given product changes. Nobody knows with any certainty or in any detail what the future market share will be for any of these technologies.
If I were to guess, I think that Android will surpass iPhone OS in every area - phones, tablets, netbooks, STBs, automobile/emergency OSs, misc. handheld/palmtop devices - but I have no reliable crystal balls.