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Originally Posted by
TenoBell 
Yes I can say with absolute certitude that Flash will not be on 90% of the mobile devices.
Many people here are sure of a lot of things, based on some pretty flimsy projections. I've been around long enough to know, nothing, is for sure, and likely, there will be some surprises. Don't assume 1) flash won't make it on the mobile platform, (it is already to the chagrin of a few) and 2) flash will be as it is today.
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Media sensationalism.
Convenient I say. I say there's more to that storey. However, truthfully, as I've said before, flash not being on the iphone is probably less an issue, then say a tablet.
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Two main reason I know its media sensationalism. Because most mobile phone users are accessing web services through a native app more than they are through the browser, you don't need Flash for that. When you do use the browser the far majority of the time the browser will be directed to a mobile website that does not use Flash, so you don't need Flash for that either.
I'm talking primarily about accessing the web through a browser. And being directed to a mobile site only happens on most major sites. all the rest, I get the desktop version. Hardly the "majority of the time" for me, but it depends, if all you surf are those major sites with mobile versions, sure.
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You lost me here. They already have desktop sites that support Flash, nothing has changed there. I don't understand the dumbing down you are talking about.
In addition to the desktop site with Flash, they provide a mobile site, designed for small touch screens, and stream media in H.264. Where is the dumbing down?
If you want to create -one- website viewable by all, which seems to be the mantra around here, you're going to have to dumb things right down. Or, create two versions, fine. Which means flash will continue to be used, flourish on the desktops, and if adobe -does- succeed in creating a good flash for mobile, we'll see where that goes...
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Yes because Flash has clearly been shown numerous times to not work very well on mobile devices. Adobe is trying to force it to work any way. Not because it is the best technology for mobile devices but because they are trying to protect their control of the web.
They have shown it to very clearly work very well too, it depends on what your bias is... . And, they have also shown it can have problems. What was that you mentioned... what was it. yes. "media sensationalism".

I'll take all that with a grain of salt, and make my own opinions based on experience, I don't need a couple dudes in search of click hits to tell me what to think.

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While it is currently still maturing and it is in some ways hampered by design by committee. What HTML5 can do, has been shown numerous times to do better on mobile devices.
There's that "shown" thing again. I waitin for some real production ready stuff here! I'm tired of all this look at what my google link says. People in forums throwing around the latest blog sensation that "makes them right". What a waste of time. There are just as plenty videos out there that show html5 to run as dog as flash out there. But truthfully, I file those right in the same bin as the bad flash videos. I know well those technologies will improve, they will change things rapidly, certainly will change things for flash you'd be a fool not to see that.