Originally Posted by Prof. Peabody
You are preaching the sort of "accepted wisdom" here, but I'm not so sure it will be true this time.
While not being aimed at business per se, the iPhone has already made significant inroads into enterprise. I think it likely that the new iPhone 4 will be hugely more
successful in that market than the original was, given it's design and the new OS. If rumours are true of Apple going multi-carrier in the USA, then we can also assume they will take a huge bite out of the subscribers of all the other networks. That kind of momentum (on top of the momentum they already have) will be hard to beat.
Overall, I think that what we are looking at with iPhone and the iPad is an entirely new platform taking shape. To me, that makes a lot of your analysis wrong-headed to the degree that it's based on past trends. Platforms are usually defined by the early market and iPhone OS dominates the early market. It's the standard that all others are striving towards and will be judged by. IMO iPhone OS won't ever be the entire
market like Windows was in the desktop years, but there is no reason it can't dominate. People are just used
to Apple having the minority share, there is no good reason why it has to be true anymore, especially in this new market.
The comparisons being made by analysts today to market share arguments from the desktop years may be quite misleading. At least for the time being, the traditionally Apple-owned "premium" segment of this market is actually the main segment. No one is going to make much money right now pushing "good enough" technology in the mobile market IMO. They are just filling up customers pockets until those customers eventually and inevitably buy their iPhones at some point down the road.
I agree that the trend will be for Apple to increase its iPhone inroads into the enterprise. Most of the pieces necessary for IT acceptance and support are already present in the iPhone platform (or soon will be).
The thing I find interesting is that hardly anyone is talking about the iPad inroads into the enterprise.
I mean everything from small enterprises (restaurants, shops) to large enterprises (business, medical, education, government).
With the iPad, not only can you consume content, but you can present content,
be it a menu in a coffee shop or an image in a doctor's office.
The guy who says: "Let me show you..." will, likely, be wielding an iPad!
And, the "show-ee" will be just as comfortable manipulating the content as the "show-er".
When the first computer labs went into the classroom, it was amazing to see the difference in the kids. They were used to leaning back and watching
a presenter display content (film, video, overhead, flipcharts, chalkboard, etc.). With the computer, they were leaning forward and participating!
When the presenter gets the participation of the audience,
it's magic! And, he has, likely, closed the deal!
The salesman in an auto dealership, sees that you are interested in a car... He pulls up a [rotatable] 3D image and hands you the iPad so you design the car with your colors, fabrics, accessories...
Just think of the iPad's collaboration potential-- while sitting around the table in the board room, sitting in the classroom or around the world.It ain't there yet, but it's comin'