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Piper: Apple has 'little room for surprise' at WWDC 2010

post #1 of 106
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Two lost prototype iPhones, presumed to represent the fourth-generation handset that will be be announced by Steve Jobs at the Worldwide Developers Conference, have taken away the element of surprise for Apple, one prominent analyst believes.

Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said Wednesday that Apple has "little room for surprise" at WWDC, set to kick off on June 7. He believes the hardware maker will introduce a new fourth-generation iPhone with a front-facing camera for video conferencing, better battery life, an improved rear camera, thinner design and longer battery life. But he said people shouldn't hold their breath for a major surprise, like a model compatible with the Verizon network in the U.S.

"We believe that it is unlikely that the next generation iPhone will be available at Verizon (or Sprint) at launch; rather, it is more likely that it remains exclusively available at AT&T in the U.S. at launch," Munster wrote.

Apple may also replace the $99 iPhone 3G with the iPhone 3GS or a new device at the $99 price point, he said. And the company could give an update on iPad sales, or provide a "limited demo" of Mac OS X 10.7.

"The Mac OS has not seen the same level of innovation as iPhone software in recent years," Munster said. "With the next version of Mac OS X, we expect Apple to bring some of the same innovation to the Mac platform. Multi-touch technology, for example could be a key feature of Mac OS 10.7."

But the scheduled sessions for WWDC 2010 indicate that this year's conference will focus on iPhone OS 4, which could suggest that an advanced preview of the next version of Mac OS X 10.7 will not happen.

"Bottom line: WWDC will likely be in-line with expectations, and a non-event for the stock," Munster wrote, "but the new iPhone will likely drive unit sales beyond Street expectations, providing a positive catalyst for shares of AAPL in the coming months."
post #2 of 106
It would have taken away the surprise, if noone had expected a new iPhone. It's also no surprise that it sports a new design - and yes, a front facing camera isn't a surprise. If Apple wants to surprise (me) than better not with a simple iPhone upgrade that was anticipated by a majority.
post #3 of 106
I think there will be two things of interest not mentioned:
[1] The screen will be a major selling point and Apple will make a big deal about it. Despite all the leaks we've yet to see how the OS and apps will look on that high dpi (possibly IPS) screen.
[2] Safari 5 will usher in new features (I hope), including almost full support for the draft HTML 5 spec, a faster JS engine, process isolation (webkit 2), a brand new UI and a plugin architecture.

And of course just because iPhone OS 4 is in beta, that doesn't mean Apple hasn't got some new Apps internally that it is planning to bundle with the new system.

There are always surprises.
post #4 of 106
Little room for surprise doesn't necessary make WWDC a non-event or the supposed iPhone HD unimportant since many of the new features are significant. The hardware may be set, but Apple could still do interesting things on how that hardware is made use of in software, which is generally there domain anyways. Maybe there could be Haptic feedback as a final hardware feature?

A Verizon iPhone at WWDC is doubtful, but what happened to the low-hanging fruit of T-Mobile support? If Apple really intends to go carrier agnostic, that seems like the best way to start.
post #5 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by ltcommander.data View Post

Little room for surprise doesn't necessary make WWDC a non-event or the supposed iPhone HD unimportant since many of the new features are significant. The hardware may be set, but Apple could still do interesting things on how that hardware is made use of in software, which is generally there domain anyways. Maybe there could be Haptic feedback as a final hardware feature?

A Verizon iPhone at WWDC is doubtful, but what happened to the low-hanging fruit of T-Mobile support? If Apple really intends to go carrier agnostic, that seems like the best way to start.

Except Apple is already carrier agnostic in almost every territory they sell in. So they wouldn't really be starting anything.
post #6 of 106
Well, there's new features in iPhone OS 4 that haven't been talked about yet.

There's new developer features in the next XCode, hey, it is WWDC after all.

There are things besides iPhones in Apple's product line-up.
post #7 of 106
Well it's a nice change to see no wild speculation. I'd rather we go in with the share holders having lower expectation and SJ still wows us with a few secrets Apple managed to keep. Far better than disappointment because the iPhone G4 doesn't have some crazy feature the rumor mill dreamed up.
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From Apple ][ - to new Mac Pro I've used them all.
Long on AAPL so biased
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post #8 of 106
I believe that PJ is trying to drive the stock down - same old games...

We have only seen what we expected....

Now all we do is wait for "one more thing"...

Can I say 'phuque" PJ?

Thanks
post #9 of 106
Perhaps we'll see a demo of OS 4 for the iPad?
post #10 of 106
Is it me or does everyone else know that these analysis are trying to effect the stock of these companies with their lip service?
The new iphone will blow the socks off the competition.
post #11 of 106
Unless, of course, Steve unveils something NO ONE has even heard of
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post #12 of 106
Quote:
I believe that PJ is trying to drive the stock down - same old games...

???
Has there been a more consistent or rabid AAPL bull that PJ?

Personally I think that if there is any surprises possible out there, it will be in the cloud based iTunes type stuff. Knowing Apple thought, that will more likely be next year. I cant even begin to imagine the contractual nightmares that such a service would present, but we have 8 apple devices in our family and it would sure be nice to be able to have more flexibility about the media we have purchased.
post #13 of 106
One thing that could potentially move the stock would be an update on iPad sales, particularly if there were clear signs that production is catching up with demand.
post #14 of 106
I expect a few surprises, but nothing over the top at WWDC.

As it stands, Steve is like a jockey flogging his horse as it passes the third turn "faster damn you, they are almost out of the starting gate!".

The other horses:
Windows Mobile [major problems internal at MS]
Nexus One [Didn't google just shut down their online store?]
Palm WebOS , oops HP Web OS...
Motorola Droid [well, the Incredible is out of the starting gate and rounding turn one, a pretty good competitor to the Apple 3G]
Nokia - a strong player in the international market, but still struggling to match the iPhone 'cool'.
Microsoft Kin - Now free in a box of Frosted Flakes!
HTC Android devices [Like the droid, a competitor, but a bit behind]
post #15 of 106
Profiles for the iPad!!!
post #16 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said Wednesday that Apple has "little room for surprise" at WWDC, set to kick off on June 7. ...

"Bottom line: WWDC will likely be in-line with expectations, and a non-event for the stock," Munster wrote, "but the new iPhone will likely drive unit sales beyond Street expectations, providing a positive catalyst for shares of AAPL in the coming months."

..those are the silver linings right there..

Yup, if Steve Jobs do introduce the new iPhone like the same one we already knew from the leaked prototypes, then yeah it's a no surprise. And this is likely what will happen..

But Steve Jobs is, well he is Steve Jobs, and his words against those who have doubt in the WWDC '10 event is as simple as it usually do: "You won't be disappointed."
That is his answer when a MacRumors reader named Bryan Webster emailed the Apple CEO to ask about the upcoming event.

And Munster's bottom line is a spot on, right on the money.. Everyone will still going to buy the new, but not surprising anymore cause we've knew about it, iPhone. And Apple will still going to print money as many as they can with their new iPhone.. Not a surprise, eh?
post #17 of 106
Still, my year hangs on the WWDC and January/February Apple conferences. As a bloke stuck in Korea, I won't be getting an iPhone 4G (as it won't be available till much later and foreigners aren't allowed them), but I thrive on the news and the expectation that eventually I will have an iPhone. good luck peeps.
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post #18 of 106
This lovely gentleman has such a brilliant track record of accuracy. \
post #19 of 106
Apple announces that it's making MobileMe free and launching its own internet search engine.
post #20 of 106
And what about a revamp Apple TV with an App Store for it?
post #21 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jetz View Post

Apple announces that it's making MobileMe free and launching its own internet search engine.


YESSSS it's own search engine, I think this is the thing Apple have no choice to go in. Google choose to attack Apple, so Apple will attack Google in it's core business, I'm sure Steve Jobs dream to have that for Apple
post #22 of 106
Potential for a surprise...

We still don't know what Steve's planning for that big-arse data centre in North Carolina. Maybe something to do with Lala/streaming iTunes, maybe something even more 'magical'™

Other than that, I always get the feeling that Gene is related to Herman.
post #23 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by gigi View Post

And what about a revamp Apple TV with an App Store for it?

I would love to see this, but really don't expect it.
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post #24 of 106
It's not the iPhone that is likely to see much in the way of surprising changes. The product that is likely to change significantly at some point in the coming year is the Touch. The screen on the Touch is too small for what the unit is now used for.

The current Touch form factor is ideal for a phone but the Touch isn't a phone. One response to the iPad will be touch devices sporting larger screens than the current Touch. Hence, the logical move would be for Apple to make a larger screen on the Touch an upgrade to respond to the competition, such as it is. Being as memory on the devices is now rather decent, instead of doubling memory Aple can choose to provide a larger screen using the lower cost of memory to maintain margin. If that screen sports a similar resolution to the iPad, it will make it even better suited as an e-reader, etc., not to mention allowing it to run any iPad app.

Regardless, the Touch is now in an awkward place re Apple's product mix and as such a significant shift is bound to happen. The iPhone, on the other hand, is pretty much set in terms of form factor. It can't get any larger or significantly shrink without being worse as a result. For the forseeable future the iPhone is pretty much set, just as Apple has been selling 13", 15" and 17" laptops for years.
post #25 of 106
"Two lost prototype iPhones, presumed to represent the fourth-generation handset that will be be announced by Steve Jobs at the Worldwide Developers Conference, have taken away the element of surprise for Apple, one prominent analyst believes."

Or has it?
post #26 of 106
"new fourth-generation iPhone with a front-facing camera for video conferencing, better battery life, an improved rear camera, thinner design and longer battery life"

what about the battery or the other battery?

so Piper realises that there is no surprise to a product that has ben leaked. Stellar!!!


Next week: Piper predicts 10.8 will follow 10.7 (probably)

Time to switch to a better news site i think, like one that actually does News.
post #27 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by gigi View Post

And what about a revamp Apple TV with an App Store for it?

I was thinking the same thing, especially in light of what Google recently announced. Even though the 160GB version's introduction was a huge leap in terms of storage, I still think that's rather small. I'd hope that the next Apple TV has 250-320GB of storage in it.
post #28 of 106
Here's hoping to a new Mac Pro, I need one asap as my dual 2.3 Power Supply Unit died on me. Possibly a dual 6-core. I'll either go with the new model, or get a discount on the current model.

Cheers,
Phil
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post #29 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by roehlstation View Post

"Two lost prototype iPhones, presumed to represent the fourth-generation handset that will be be announced by Steve Jobs at the Worldwide Developers Conference, have taken away the element of surprise for Apple, one prominent analyst believes."

Or has it?

We won't know until WWDC happens. In which case, the surprise is that there is no surprise
post #30 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said Wednesday that Apple has "little room for surprise" at WWDC,

Even assuming that hell has frozen offer and Munster is right for a change, so what? Did it really matter that people had a pretty good idea about the iPad before it was released?

Apple's success will depend on the quality of its products and services, NOT on how surprised WWDC attendees are. Sure, Apple prefers for things to be secret, but in the long run, they will be successful even if there's nothing new at WWDC.

Of course, I think it's likely that Munster is wrong and there will be something new at WWDC. Maybe a real shocker - like Apple making me the new CEO. Oops. I wasn't supposed to say that. Would the jury please ignore that comment.
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post #31 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jetz View Post

Apple announces that it's making MobileMe free and launching its own internet search engine.

This would make me so happy!!
post #32 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by cxc273 View Post

I was thinking the same thing, especially in light of what Google recently announced. Even though the 160GB version's introduction was a huge leap in terms of storage, I still think that's rather small. I'd hope that the next Apple TV has 250-320GB of storage in it.

I get the feeling that we won't hear a peep from Apple about the ATV at WWDC. At this point, Apple either has to kill off the ATV, or go for complete reconstructive surgery. I think they will opt to make it really great to compete with the GoogleTV, but something liek this surely will get it's own press event, say in September/October? Just my feeling on the subject. I will however welcome the change whenever Apple decides to announce.

*fingers crossed*
post #33 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by cxc273 View Post

I was thinking the same thing, especially in light of what Google recently announced. Even though the 160GB version's introduction was a huge leap in terms of storage, I still think that's rather small. I'd hope that the next Apple TV has 250-320GB of storage in it.

Pardon what may be a dumb question here, but why stop at 250-320GB? Does the AppleTV use a 2.5" drive? Heck, you can get 1TB drives these days for about $100 at BestBuy. I don't really see any reason that a PVR should have less than a 500GB drive, especially with the growth of HD content and the fact that it consumes a great deal more storage. Personally, if I were to buy an AppleTV I would pay $50 more to get a 500GB unit as opposed to a 160 or 250GB unit.
post #34 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by gigi View Post

And what about a revamp Apple TV with an App Store for it?

...and it would still be about as useless as it is now. App Store support? Who cares? It's a freakin' TV box. That's it's primary function. It should deliver content and make accessing content (particularly TV content) I want easier. Apple TV will only be useful if there are subscription deals. Otherwise, it'll remain a 'hobby' for Apple and a way for some to make voluntary contributions to Apple's profits.

What makes Google's TV platform so appealing is that it will power a regular TV box someday. It'll also come in all shapes and sizes. Just like Android phones today. I think people forget this. In a few years, I'll get a Scientific Atlanta PVR that "comes with Google" from my cable company. It'll enhance my TV watching experience with search, easier access to streaming, etc.

If only Apple would do that with Apple TV. It would take off if Apple added cable cards and DVR functionality and a proper interface. Adding App Store support won't really do much...well maybe gaming....but that's still a niche product. If it stays as a box to simply stream iTunes content, then hardly anyone is going to bother.
post #35 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by gigi View Post

YESSSS it's own search engine, I think this is the thing Apple have no choice to go in. Google choose to attack Apple, so Apple will attack Google in it's core business, I'm sure Steve Jobs dream to have that for Apple

Meh. If they haven't made MobileMe free by now, I highly doubt that they'd offer their own search engine for free. And if it's not better than Google (and that's a high likelihood....it's tough to compete with Google on this front) who's going to use it? Even if a 100 million iDevice owners used Apple Search, that still would not compare to how many people use Google every day.

....and then there's issue of making money from such a venture. They can't spend billions on internet search and make no return. I am pretty sure the shareholders won't like that.
post #36 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jetz View Post

Apple announces that it's making MobileMe free and launching its own internet search engine.

Great shout.

I also wouldn't be surprised if we didn't get an early preview of 4.1, which will be dropping on iPhone + iPad this Autumn (Fall) unifying the OS that they are running.

iPhone 4 + OS 4 worldwide availability, Safari 5, a better, free Mobile Me.

Plenty to look forward to!
post #37 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Even assuming that hell has frozen offer and Munster is right for a change, so what? Did it really matter that people had a pretty good idea about the iPad before it was released?

Apple's success will depend on the quality of its products and services, NOT on how surprised WWDC attendees are. Sure, Apple prefers for things to be secret, but in the long run, they will be successful even if there's nothing new at WWDC.

Of course, I think it's likely that Munster is wrong and there will be something new at WWDC. Maybe a real shocker - like Apple making me the new CEO. Oops. I wasn't supposed to say that. Would the jury please ignore that comment.

Munster has been wrong too many times. His predictions seem to be just guesses as he has no way of knowing what surprises loom at the WWDC. I would be really surprised if APPLE did NOT have a surprise for everyone. And what better time to pull something off than when everyone is not expecting it.
post #38 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by cxc273 View Post

I was thinking the same thing, especially in light of what Google recently announced. Even though the 160GB version's introduction was a huge leap in terms of storage, I still think that's rather small. I'd hope that the next Apple TV has 250-320GB of storage in it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jetz View Post

...and it would still be about as useless as it is now. App Store support? Who cares? It's a freakin' TV box. That's it's primary function. It should deliver content and making access content I want easier. Apple TV will only be useful if there are subscription deals. Otherwise, it'll remain a 'hobby' for Apple and a way for some to make voluntary donations to Apple's profits.

What makes Google's TV platform so appealing is that it will power a regular TV box someday. That means it enhances my current TV watching experience. If only Apple would do that with Apple TV. It would take off if Apple added cable cards and DVR functionality and a proper interface. Adding App Store support won't really do much...well maybe gaming....but that's still a niche product.

A couple of you have mentioned DVR/PVR capabilities, and yes I would love to see this also. But I don't know if Apple really wants to go there. They are all about flushing away the old, and ushering in the new. Steve Jobs loves to be the person to prognosticate and sound the death knell of any given technology (floppy disks, CRTs). So, with that said, I don't think they will ever dive into delivering a DVR. I think they will focus on streaming. The problem to this point is that ATV can only stream iTunes content from your home computer to the TV. As soon as they embrace streaming from some or all of the great internet sources (netflix, hulu, boxee, amazon, etc.) and give users some flexibility, I think the AppleTV will explode in popularity. And this is what I look forward to. I want to be able to get rid of my antiquated TiVo for good and move into the future.

Help us Steve! You can do it!
post #39 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by DJinTX View Post

I get the feeling that we won't hear a peep from Apple about the ATV at WWDC. At this point, Apple either has to kill off the ATV, or go for complete reconstructive surgery. I think they will opt to make it really great to compete with the GoogleTV, but something liek this surely will get it's own press event, say in September/October?

To be honest, I don't see much point in Google TV. Sure, people watch Youtube and Hulu, but the problem is that Hulu would probably block Google TV from watching its shows, because that would make it too easy for people to drop cable.

So, watching stuff on the web and watching cable is something that's already been done and solved on your TV. Making it a centralized experience where you have to have Google spy on your TV watching habits and possibly offer adverts in the future doesn't sound too appealing to me. Besides, how hard is it to switch sources on your TV? Two clicks on the remote and you're there. Personally, I believe Apple TV is an extension of iTunes onto the TV. They're probably trying to replace cable with iTunes, but the networks won't allow them. Google on the other hand, doesn't really care to replace cable or not, they just want to make it so you have to search through their own service.

The problem is, why have Google TV if you could watch the same content already? Are you really willing to spend $300-500 for a device that makes you type in stuff to get to the content you want? I don't think Apple TV has to worry, Google TV will implode, as few people will buy something that seems rather built in search of a problem.

EDIT: Other people commented that Amazon and Netflix would be possible contenders as well for content. What's to stop the content providers from saying Netflix and Amazon can't stream to Google TV or Apple TV unless they have a deal? And such a deal would be unprecedented, because that would eat into cable subscriptions.
post #40 of 106
Quote:
Originally Posted by columbus View Post

Great shout.

I also wouldn't be surprised if we didn't get an early preview of 4.1, which will be dropping on iPhone + iPad this Autumn (Fall) unifying the OS that they are running.

iPhone 4 + OS 4 worldwide availability, Safari 5, a better, free Mobile Me.

Plenty to look forward to!

While MobileMe isn't a high priority for me (I don't wan to pay to use it), I certainly would welcome with open arms free mobile me. I don't see it happening, but it would be great. I think at the very least all iPhone users should get this for free, if only for the free "find my phone feature".

Seriously, how does the purchase price of an iPhone not get you either free or greatly reduced rate for Mobile Me?
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