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post #41 of 237
Early gadflies' SWAG estimates of 2010 tablet sales were mostly:

Total 10.5 million units total, with iPad sales at 5 million units

I joked that it would be more like iPads = 10 million, everyone else = .5 million.


Today, we know:

Apple has sold 1 million + iPads

Apple cannot keep iPads in stock

Apple is producing 1.5 million iPads a month (est.)

In September Apple will ramp up production to 2.5 million Pads a month (est.)

Lets be conservative:

Code:


. 2 Million iPads sold thru Jun Q 2010
+ 3 Million iPads sold thru Sep Q 2010
+ 5 Million iPads sold thru Dec Q 2010
----------------------------------
=10 Million iPads sold through YE 2010



That's what I'm talkin' about!


.
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post #42 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by OzExige View Post

Look, you're Trade Mark isn't funny anymore!

Ok, I meant to say, Apple is dewmed!

Quote:
Originally Posted by OzExige View Post


Yes it is!


Gosh, I've been waiting for a long time to say it on the day that Apple overtook MSFT in mkt cap! I finally got my chance! Who knows what tomorrow may bring (I have a good guess), but today, I am going to celebrate!
post #43 of 237
Apple has recently peaked at a market cap of $248 billion. Several analysts' target price is $300 or more which would put market cap within range of Exxon. It's not a question of if but when. I think it will happen within 6 months.
post #44 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post

There are many Apple-centric sites and followers that become giddy everytime there is a blip up in Apple's market share. Even Steve Jobs is not immune to that.

Well yeah, but that is comparing marketshare over the previous marketshare for that companies product category. It indicates that the product is outpacing the industries growth.

If they did it by selling $400 notebooks then it wouldn't mean squat, but they aren't. And it's not comparing a company selling PCs to a company that licenses OSes to every PC company.

Marketshare is relevant to show stockholders growth and trends only when other factors are being determined, but the people posting that Apple won't be anything until they best MS' OS marketshare are just myopic and foolish as it require Apple owning 50% of the PC hardware sales, which is twice as much as the current industry leader, HP, currently sells. For Apple to match HP at 25% Apple would still only have a 25% OS marketshare, yet they'd be making about 80% of the industries profits. That just isn't going to happen unless Apple changes their business model. I don't think that is likely and wonder why anyone thinks that is.
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post #45 of 237
AsianBob and Extremeskater are gonna have a stroke....
post #46 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by Soskok View Post

too bad not in market share

The days of giving a crap about PC market share are over. Now the question is mobile device market share.
post #47 of 237
I'm an apple fan forever, BUT I have to admit MSFT has a huge R&D department and invests in fundamental techs more than apple - example the huge effort and push to get F# out the door which for me is a huge step forward from C. Apple has been saving money modding open source stuff which is great for profits and compatibility but is not doing the dev world any favors. As a Software company that lives on how good 3rd party apps are apple should do everything in it's power to make it easier for them.

I have to admit my next dev effort will be F# - I can't afford the untold wasted hours on Xcode inefficiencies

Apple if you are the biggest in the world - you need to give back and assume the rolls that AT&T did of yesteryear - establish an Apple Research division which invests in fundamental technology - not just applied tech for the next year or two, and beef up those dev tools to be better than the competition!
post #48 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by Soskok View Post

too bad not in market share

that depends on the market. Apple dominates Microsoft in several markets, such as

MP3 players
Smart Phones
Tablet Computers
Music Sales
post #49 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyapple View Post

Apple has recently peaked at a market cap of $248 billion. Several analysts' target price is $300 or more which would put market cap within range of Exxon. It's not a question of if but when. I think it will happen within 6 months.

or the coming quarterly results. Exxon seems to be dropping as fast as apple is rising.
post #50 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by 21yr_mac_user View Post

I'm an apple fan forever, BUT I have to admit MSFT has a huge R&D department and invests in fundamental techs more than apple - example the huge effort and push to get F# out the door which for me is a huge step forward from C. Apple has been saving money modding open source stuff which is great for profits and compatibility but is not doing the dev world any favors. As a Software company that lives on how good 3rd party apps are apple should do everything in it's power to make it easier for them.

I have to admit my next dev effort will be F# - I can't afford the untold wasted hours on Xcode inefficiencies

Apple if you are the biggest in the world - you need to give back and assume the rolls that AT&T did of yesteryear - establish an Apple Research division which invests in fundamental technology - not just applied tech for the next year or two, and beef up those dev tools to be better than the competition!

I believe SJ is holding such large cash reserves only to invest them all as soon as some "game changing" opportunity arrives.
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post #51 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by 21yr_mac_user View Post

I have to admit my next dev effort will be F# - I can't afford the untold wasted hours on Xcode inefficiencies

what? is f sharp good for mobile?
post #52 of 237
What is truly amazing is that Apple did this not by racing to the bottom by creating commodity devices that undersold everyone else. Perhaps a poor analogy, but almost as if Rolex became the biggest watch manufacturer while continuing to make only their signature brand.
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post #53 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by DougDolde View Post

Microsoft is pretty dead in terms of innovation. Glad to see Apple finally beat them after years of the sleezy Bill Gates.

Bill Gates should have gone to jail. Memory company executives from Samsung, etc have gone to jail for price collusion. What Microsoft did was a lot worse than that.
post #54 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by 21yr_mac_user View Post

I have to admit my next dev effort will be F# - I can't afford the untold wasted hours on Xcode inefficiencies

What? Objective C setters and getters with two lines of code that on c sharp would have been 15? one line of code to grap such api's as mapkit or the ipod, etc? Not tracking you here.
post #55 of 237
Oh AI, why must you always jump the gun? This is only market caps we are talking about here, they are NOT the largest tech company out there.

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Microsoft+Apple
post #56 of 237
As long as other people are free to innovate no monopoly is safe. The government should remember this next time they embark on their next antitrust case.
post #57 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by 21yr_mac_user View Post


Apple if you are the biggest in the world - you need to give back and assume the rolls that AT&T did of yesteryear - establish an Apple Research division which invests in fundamental technology - not just applied tech for the next year or two, and beef up those dev tools to be better than the competition!

This is a GREAT point. Apple should create the equivalent of a Bell Labs (but keep the good stuff for themselves!). BL represented the pinnacle of of American corporate innovation.

What would they call it? iLab?
post #58 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by tipoo View Post

Oh AI, why must you always jump the gun? This is only market caps we are talking about here, they are NOT the largest tech company out there.

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Microsoft+Apple

Your data is different from Google Finance. Do you really think that is Wolfram|Alpha is the best choice without backing it up or noticing that the latest trades data is recent but the other areas are based on older data? Or how about reading what AI and other tech and finance sites are measuring?

http://www.google.com/finance?q=aapl+msft
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post #59 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post

You are being too gloomy. If you want to depress yourself. just ponder the words:

"This too shall pass..."

Nothing lasts forever. Even Apple will someday be overshadowed by another. No company remained at the forefront, forever, after its founder has left the helm, or lost the "itch of challenge".

Eventually, Apple will be surpassed by a high-tech soft serve ice cream start-up.... Doomed, I tell ya... Doomed!®

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

Reply
post #60 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Early gadflies' SWAG estimates of 2010 tablet sales were mostly:

Total 10.5 million units total, with iPad sales at 5 million units

I joked that it would be more like iPads = 10 million, everyone else = .5 million.


Today, we know:

Apple has sold 1 million + iPads

Apple cannot keep iPads in stock

Apple is producing 1.5 million iPads a month (est.)

In September Apple will ramp up production to 2.5 million Pads a month (est.)

Lets be conservative:

Code:


. 2 Million iPads sold thru Jun Q 2010
+ 3 Million iPads sold thru Sep Q 2010
+ 5 Million iPads sold thru Dec Q 2010
----------------------------------
=10 Million iPads sold through YE 2010



That's what I'm talkin' about!


.

We have to wonder about how many iPads Apple will sell this quarter, and possibly even next. As the shortages seem so severe, their sales could be significantly less than all the new, high predictions are making them out to be.

I hope that's not the case, of course, but it could be.

I'm happy I stood in line April 3rd to get my 3G.
post #61 of 237
I wish Apple had surpassed MS in a rising market, not a dropping one. So far, Apple is down about a dollar in after market trading, while MS is down one cent.
post #62 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by tipoo View Post

Oh AI, why must you always jump the gun? This is only market caps we are talking about here, they are NOT the largest tech company out there.

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Microsoft+Apple

If we're talking about market cap at the end of today's trading day, then Apple is larger than MS.

Apple $222.1 billion

MS $219.2 billion.
post #63 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Eventually, Apple will be surpassed by a high-tech soft serve ice cream start-up.... Doomed, I tell ya... Doomed!®

We thought that would happen with Krispy Cream, but they collapsed. So I guess it's left for Apple to carry on.
post #64 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daniel001 View Post

Steve Jobs must be over the moon. Only a deluded halfwit would have thought this possible in the late nineties.

coughcoughMichaelDellcoughcough

"What would I do?" Mr. Dell said to an audience of several thousand information technology managers. "I'd shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders."
post #65 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by 21yr_mac_user View Post

Apple if you are the biggest in the world - you need to give back and assume the rolls that AT&T did of yesteryear - establish an Apple Research division which invests in fundamental technology - not just applied tech for the next year or two, and beef up those dev tools to be better than the competition!

Webkit, Bonjour, OpenCL, Grand Central Dispatch, Darwin Streaming Server.

Webkit alone already set the standard for mobile web rendering engine.

What I don't understand is, why J# when you already have C#. Why have multiple languages basically calling the same framework? when you could spend the time on improving it.
post #66 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Well yeah, but that is comparing marketshare over the previous marketshare for that companies product category. It indicates that the product is outpacing the industries growth.

And what will be your counter when some other company outpaces the growth of Apple with respect to the industries growth?

Using the last year-over-year quarter growth, Android outpaced the growth of Apple iPhone (the phone component worldwide): 807% vs. 117%, respectively.

When Apple tried to counter the trend in the US market, it raised the situation worldwide. Sure, Apple was ahead by several millions or so, 5.4M Androids vs 8.5M iPhones. But, RIM could make the same argument in terms of marketshare (10.5M). In terms of growth rate, Apple may overtake RIM, but Android, at the pace indicated may trounce the iPhone.

If you want to wager***, I would predict that by next year, the Android would surpass Apple iPhone (the phone component) in terms of marketshare. And base from their stage in the sigmoidal growth curve, I would predict Android still would maintain higher growth rate than Apple but at a slower pace of growth rate.

However they define smartphone, Nokia remains the uncontested leader followed a distant second by RIM in terms of marketshare.

So where is Apple "product ... outpacing the industries growth"?

I did not include the profitability factor because it has always been the focus of Apple once it decided to cater to a more discriminating crowd. And, if profitability is the focus, the strategy about all these ephemeral and neverending "races" would require different propaganda strategies. A good example of that propaganda to win consumers is the Mac vs PC ads -- in a PC market where Mac computers has lost the marketshare race several decades ago.

Does this strategy mean that Apple is aversed to low profit margin or to reach the lower end market? Not exactly.
  1. It sold cheaper models of the iPods to ensure its dominance in the digital music market.
  2. Apple did reduce the prices of its Mac products.
  3. And did the same for the iPhone.
  4. The back to school sale with free iPod (or $199) is another significant reduction in price to protect Apple's share in education.
  5. Apple similarly priced the iPad, much lower than analysts estimates to increase reception of what was then a product that was not known to be a definite winner.

Tim Cook, I believe was very forceful that they will do what it takes to price their product more competitively.

Apple is winning against the competition because of its diverse and well-integrated ecosystem and continue to culture that diversity with innovation. It would be fascinating to see process progress as the Apple "walled garden" compete with an almost opposite type of strategy, the more open "Android ecosystem.

CGC

***Wager
The one who loses will not post in any Mac or mobile computing site for a year.
post #67 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Exxon-Mobil, here we come!

Oh, and btw, Apple is doomed!™

I know, I know. Got that each time I bought a new Mac.

Time to worry when the press say "sky's the limit for AAPL"
post #68 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post

...


You are being too gloomy. If you want to depress yourself. just ponder the words:

"This too shall pass..."

Nothing lasts forever. Even Apple will someday be overshadowed by another. No company remained at the forefront, forever, after its founder has left the helm, or lost the "itch of challenge".

Why do you think Bill Gates left Microsoft?

Let's just hope that Steve Jobs remains driven.

CGC

True enough. In the meantime WSJ's (Nick Wingfield) info is illuminating:

Quote:
A decade ago, when Steve Ballmer took over as CEO of Microsoft and Steve Jobs had recently reclaimed the CEO slot at Apple, Apple had a market cap of $16 billion and Microsoft had a market cap of $556 billion.

and from Silicon Alley Insider:

Quote:
In other words, Apple has gained about $210 billion of market value and Microsoft has lost about $325 billion. Put differently, a decade ago, Microsoft was worth $540 billion more than Apple.
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post #69 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post

And what will you do when someone else outpaces the growth of Apple?

Using the last year-over-year quarter growth, Adnroid outpaced the growth of Apple iPhone (the phone component worldwide): 807% vs. 117%.

Please, for the love of your god, at least try to compare like things. Android is a free OS. The iPhone is a for purchase piece of HW. You constantly want to look at Android from one quarter to the next but not compare it to it's previous quarter to indicate growth in the market, only to the well established top dog so you can say how the iPhone is a failure. That is an erroneous use of numbers and you know this or you are woefully ignorant. This is the whole Windows v. Mac OS marketshare thing that I debunked in my previous comment. It means nothing to compare these dissimilar things.

Until you can understand how Apple owning 1/3rd of the handset and PC market profits are important to investors you really shouldn't be posting on a thread about finances.

Quote:
It would be fascinating to see process progress as the Apple "walled garden" compete with an almost opposite type of strategy, the more open "Android ecosystem.

Because you want them to they should? Lest we forget, Google already tried to follow Apple with a that with a Google branded Nexus One and despite the spec increase over other Android-based phones it was one of the worse selling Android phone with the iPhone 3GS on the 4th carrier in the UK outselling it despite the 3GS being more than halfway through its release cycle and Google closing down online sales 4 months after it went on sale. MS also tried this by screwing their Play4Sure partners and creating the Zune. Neither Google nor MS can compete with Apple's full service business model. Maybe you need to alter your PoV to see that Apple is already owning every market they are in by understanding the markets they sell to while Google and MS can't understand anything past SW.
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post #70 of 237
TIme for a celebration

Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

We have to wonder about how many iPads Apple will sell this quarter, and possibly even next. As the shortages seem so severe, their sales could be significantly less than all the new, high predictions are making them out to be.

I hope that's not the case, of course, but it could be.

I'm happy I stood in line April 3rd to get my 3G.

But I thought no one want to buy an oversized iPod Touch and Apple will not sell six million iPads this year. It is amazing that you don't see those trolls anymore. Maybe they will come back around WWDC
post #71 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post

And what will you do when someone else outpaces the growth of Apple?

Using the last year-over-year quarter growth, Adnroid outpaced the growth of Apple iPhone (the phone component worldwide): 807% vs. 117%.

If you want to wager***, I would predict that by next year, the Android would surpass Apple iPhone (the phone component) in terms of marketshare. And base from their stage in the sigmoidal growth curve, I would predict Android still would maintain higher growth rate than Apple but at a slower pace of growth rate.

However they define smartphone, Nokia remains the uncontested leader followed a distant second by RIM in terms of marketshare.

So where is Apple "product ... outpacing the industries growth"?

I did not include the profitability factor because it has always been the focus of Apple once it decided to cater to a more discriminating crowd. And, if profitability is the focus, the strategy about all these ephemeral and neverending "races" would require different propaganda strategies. A good example of that propaganda to win consumers is the Mac vs PC ads -- in a PC market where Mac computers has lost the marketshare race several decades ago.

Does this strategy mean that Apple is aversed to low profit margin or to reach the lower end market? Not exactly.
  1. It sold cheaper models of the iPods to ensure its dominance in the digital music market.
  2. Apple did reduce the prices of its Mac products.
  3. And did the same for the iPhone.
  4. The back to school sale with free iPod (or $199) is another significant reduction in price to protect Apple's share in education.
  5. Apple similarly priced the iPad, much lower than analysts estimates to increase reception of what was then a product that was not known to be a definite winner.

Tim Cook, I believe was very forceful that they will do what it takes to price their product more competitively.

Apple is winning against the competition because of its diverse and well-integrated ecosystem and continue to culture that diversity with innovation. It would be fascinating to see process progress as the Apple "walled garden" compete with an almost opposite type of strategy, the more open "Android ecosystem.

CGC

***Wager
The one who loses will not post in any Mac or mobile computing site for a year.

The industries growth in smartphones was about 48% last quarter, and Apple's was about 132%. That's outpacing the industries growth.

Android is made by a bunch of manufacturers, and are sold on all four US networks, when the iPhone is made in one model, and sold on one network. The numbers are hard to categorize therefor. Both RIM and Nokia have lost marketshare. That's negative growth.
post #72 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post

It would be fascinating to see process progress as the Apple "walled garden" compete with an almost opposite type of strategy, the more open "Android ecosystem.

CGC

***Wager
The one who loses will not post in any Mac or mobile computing site for a year.

See I don't think we should look at this as winners or losers. This is just the same philosophical war as with the PC vs MAc.
I think it's inevitable that android will gain a larger market share, but as we know, market share don't mean jack. Both can survive. Both have differing target markets. The supposed 'openness' of Android will also be it's weakness.


And they both live in harmony, forever after....

...oh and as for the big bad Microsoft, well nobody heard of them ever again.... rumour has it you can still buy their products in Radio Shack.
post #73 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by NasserAE View Post

TIme for a celebration



But I thought no one want to buy an oversized iPod Touch and Apple will not sell six million iPads this year. It is amazing that you don't see those trolls anymore. Maybe the will come back around WWDC

It's interesting how so many people think that until they use it. I'm having this situation with my friends.
post #74 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Please, for the love of your god, at least try to compare like things. Android is a free OS. The iPhone is a for purchase piece of HW. .

Using your argument, the Linux OS is also free, like the Android OS, and should fare better than the iPhone. In fact, Linux based phones lost a whopping 21.5% year-over-year, during the last quarter.

Do you really think consumers care that the Android is a free OS? They too purchase a piece of hardware, that happen to contain the free Android OS. More than likely, they do not even know what OS is running their phone.

Whatever you use, worldwide, Apple is not the leader in marketshare, nor the current leader in growth rate.

Respond when you can get out of that, or consider my wager.

Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post

See I don't think we should look at this as winners or losers. This is just the same philosophical war as with the PC vs MAc.
I think it's inevitable that android will gain a larger market share, but as we know, market share don't mean jack. Both can survive. Both have differing target markets. The supposed 'openness' of Android will also be it's weakness.


And they both live in harmony, forever after....

...oh and as for the big bad Microsoft, well nobody heard of them ever again.... rumour has it you can still buy their products in Radio Shack.

That is my whole point against this worship concerning marketshare and growth rate -- on both sides. I may not be a fan of Microsoft, but I would not be surprised if someone else like it better.


CGC
post #75 of 237
Neat.
post #76 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Ok, I meant to say, Apple is dewmed!



Gosh, I've been waiting for a long time to say it on the day that Apple overtook MSFT in mkt cap! I finally got my chance! Who knows what tomorrow may bring (I have a good guess), but today, I am going to celebrate!

I'm with you all the way

I've been watching the market with unbridled excitement all year.

Kudos for your perseverance dude.
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post #77 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post

Using your argument, the Linux OS is also free, like the Android OS, and should fare better than the iPhone. In fact, Linux based phones lost a whopping 21.5% year-over-year, during the last quarter.

Do you really think consumers care that the Android is a free OS? They too purchase a piece of hardware, that happen to contain the free Android OS. More than likely, they do not even know what OS is running their phone.

Whatever you use, worldwide, Apple is not the leader in marketshare, nor the current leader in growth rate. Respond when you can get out of that.

CGC



It's all about philosophy not price.

Linux = communism (and fails for the same reasons)
Windows/Android = democracy (has some parallels , such as the free market).
Apple = well..... a Dictatorship!

Not all dictatorships are good though, in-fact most are crap. A dictatorship is only as good as it's dictator.
But get a good one, and you can run an exceptionally tight ship.

Take Nazi germany for example (an no I don't think he was a 'good' man!) that loon ran a ship so tight that a population of merely 60million almost took over the whole planet. Ya gotta hand it to him, he knew how to get stuff done!
post #78 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post

Using your argument, the Linux OS is also free, like the Android OS, and should fare better than the iPhone. In fact, Linux based phones lost a whopping 21.5% year-over-year, during the last quarter.

Do you really think consumers care that the Android is a free OS? They too purchase a piece of hardware, that happen to contain the free Android OS. More than likely, they do not even know what OS is running their phone.

Whatever you use, worldwide, Apple is not the leader in marketshare, nor the current leader in growth rate. Respond when you can get out of that.

CGC

1) Android uses a Linux kernel.

2) This is about 'a' HW product from one vendor comparing to the industry's growth. Yet you still keep wanting to compare the OS from dozens of HW products from dozens of vendors comparing to the HW from a single vendor. DOES NOT COMPUTE

3) If you want to compare a vendor to a vendor — even though this thread has absolutely nothing to do with cross vendor comparisons of a single product — then why don't you compare HTC smartphones to Apple smartphones on a thread that is relevant to that discussion. You'll have to take off some blinders to do that and this point I think they have become a permanent fixture.

4) No matter how much you deny it, Apple has been market share leader in revenue at least once last year.

5) You are really quite tiresome. Unless you can actually show some personal growth I won't be responding to you again and assisting you jack this thread any more than you already have.
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post #79 of 237
Boom.

That is all
post #80 of 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

1) Android uses a Linux kernel.

2) This is about 'a' HW product from one vendor comparing to the industry's growth. Yet you still keep wanting to compare the OS from dozens of HW products from dozens of vendors comparing to the HW from a single vendor. DOES NOT COMPUTE

3) If you want to compare a vendor to a vendor even though this thread has absolutely nothing to do with cross vendor comparisons of a single product then why don't you compare HTC smartphones to Apple smartphones on a thread that is relevant to that discussion. You'll have to take off some blinders to do that and this point I think they have become a permanent fixture.

4) No matter how much you deny it, Apple has been market share leader in revenue at least once last year.

5) You are really quite tiresome. Unless you can actually show some personal growth I won't be responding to you again and assisting you jack this thread any more than you already have.


hardware is irrelevant when he is talking about OS share
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