Originally Posted by cgc0202
And what will be your counter when some other company outpaces the growth of Apple with respect to the industries growth?
Using the last year-over-year quarter growth, Android outpaced the growth of Apple iPhone (the phone component worldwide): 807% vs. 117%, respectively.
Those criticizing Apple (and Apple supporters) tend to think that Apple supporters are being inconsistent; as in this instance, we are lauding Apple growth (in share price, or market share or what have you), but seem to be saying that it isn't important when others show a growth in numbers? Apparently, Apple supporters are fickle hypocrites? Sounds like that is your feeling too, when you ask what the counter would be?
Well, it's really just the opposite. No one here is saying growth figure numbers are important when Apple shows good numbers, but they are not important when a competitor shows good numbers. On the contrary, Apple critics are constantly pointing out that Apple has a low market share comparatively and that Apple should do what others are doing (such as race to the bottom against handset makers, and license their OS against software producers). Apple supporters, as here, are consistently pointing out that it matters what is being compared to what, and how. Apple supporters are really only rejoicing at Apple gains when measured AGAINST ITSELF. That really should not be hard to comprehend. The difference is subtle, and seems to be lost on analysts, but it makes a difference nonetheless.
How can anyone with half a grain of sense really doubt that Apple is doing phenomenally compared to almost anyone else, in almost any way that things could be measured. These boards and those on similar sites are just full of stories, constantly, over the last three years about how the analysts just do not get it, still. Who is right? Oh, Apple hasn't broken 15% market share, they must be doomed!
I think several others have pointed out why this particular example, just like other examples of Apple being doomed, isn't an issue. Yes, you are right, some upstart company may come along tomorrow and surpass Apple, Apple surely must not become complacent! Yet, Apple is still looked at like some kind of upstart, like they just happened on this lucky situation yesterday, and just completely lucked out because SJ is some master of distortion and propaganda and magically, but dishonestly, convinces everyone that its cool to buy Apple products even though they represent form over function.
Good grief, Apple has been very patient and has planned well ahead, laid excellent, prescient foundations, and has executed well all along the way to get where they are today -- this has been some 12 years in the making (more if you count the NEXT years). If there is some unknown, unseen company that has been working like this so that they can surpass Apple tomorrow, then where is it? Apple is pretty good at spotting talent, spotting trends and knowing where to invest. They could buy Adobe with pocket change, but won't. Apple finds little startups we have never heard of.
So, the question remains: what company is really "outpacing" Apple in this instance? Google? They are giving their OS away for free. While MS built their wealth on their OS, Google is banking on being able to put their search business on more devices. Everything else Google has done, just as everything MS has done outside of Windows and Office, is really not helping them a great deal -- except that it just provides more places to dump their adware crap. Google is really following the MS model and inciting a race to the bottom among its hardware partners. It took MS 12 years, Google is already there. Roughly Drafted (http://roughlydrafted.com
) has a recent article on this. To increase or hold their marketshare, handset makers are doing two for one deals. As others have pointed out, Apple's small marketshare earns them 1/3 of the profits of the entire industry.
So, the counters you ask for are what they always are, because Apple supporters do try to remain consistent in their own small way if you give them a little credit:
1) Apple is selling handsets primarily (not the OS), and the better comparison would be Nokia, RIM, Motorola, HTC, etc. The iPhone OS and software and other Apple service products exist to both differentiate and add value to Apple hardware products. And oh what a difference they make.
2) The iPod Touch, iPhone and iPad together represent a more unified platform, and thus a wider customer base that is more attractive to developers and that can sustain a better ecosystem of apps, than do all the extant versions and manufacturer- and carrier- customized flavors of Android. Yet, in this case, apparently the iPhone numbers for Apple the include the iPod Touch, go figure. Well, we won't include them either when being excited about the number of iPhones that Apple is selling quarter over quarter and year over year; but any discussion of OS market share SHOULD include them. Because if you look at OS-related markets, besides telephony, the iPhone OS is ahead hands down: app purchases and downloads, internet traffic.
3) As was pointed out about P/E and company growth, 807% of a little is a lot easier to achieve than 117% of a lot more. Especially since a lot of new handsets, from a variety of manufacturers, just launched on a variety of carriers. Why hadn't the Android market grown significantly in its first couple of years? Why did it take until it's third year to effectively move out of the starting gate? It's thus two or three years behind. Where's it going to go except to take further share from MS Mobile OS, Symbian and RIM? Apple isn't peaking and soon to be overtaken -- Apple has plenty of room to grow and is about to launch a new model and a new version of the OS.