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Microsoft hopes to triple iPhone's launch with Windows Phone 7 - Page 4

post #121 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Ha!

.

I've heard that never trust a fart line. I CAN'T WAIT TO GET OLD! What a nightmare
post #122 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichL View Post

According to IDC, the top 5 smartphone manufacturers are:

Nokia - 21.5 mil
RIM - 10.6 mil
Apple - 8.8 mil
HTC - 2.6 mil
Motorola - 2.3 mil
Total - 54.7 mil

If Microsoft sold 6 mil phones and we assume a zero sum game (which it's not), then Microsoft would need to capture 11% of today's smartphone market.

However, the report also states that the smartphone market is growing at 56.7% YoY. At this rate, the total market size in Q1 2011 will be 85.7 mil. Thus, Microsoft would only need to capture 7% of the Q1 2011 smartphone market.

In reality, the percentage of the market that Microsoft will need to grab in order to reach its 30 million target is likely to be even lower. Smartphone sales are cyclical, with the majority sold during the holiday season. The 2011 holiday season will be make or break for Microsoft.

Good post.

Do you have a link for the "Smartphone sales are cyclical, with the majority sold during the holiday season" ?

What's unclear to me: Is the Windows Phone 7 targeted at the consumer? At IT/Business? Both?

And... If successful in the Consumer space will that transfer to the IT/Business space?

I suspect that most consumers will choose a smart phone based on (after carrier) what goodies (content, social networking, apps, ecosystem. etc.) it delivers. Much of this is the antithesis of what attracts the IY/Business space).

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post #123 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

The difference, of course, is that your post was suggesting that the Dell Windows 7 phones were already a reality and therefore Microsoft's projections were real.

In the real world, the Dell Windows 7 mobiles are no more real than Courier.

ISTM that everyone else in the thread knew what was being said.


But this topic (what I may have suggested) is not relevant, or on-topic, or interesting to anybody.

Bye.
post #124 of 157
When will MICRO$oft fire this sweaty STEVE BALLMER!! ? WHY DOES he always talk shit unrealistic commentS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?
post #125 of 157
STEVE BALLMER should be fired and do a child toy salesman... what steve ballmer says can only cheat child....
post #126 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Nice chart! Do you have one that applies to the category we are discussing, smart phones?

.

I'm fairly certain charts like that exist.

But the remark I responded to was "... WP7 has potential, but there's no way that it will be anywhere near RIM, iPhone, Nokia, and Android in sales"

The chart shows sales for RIM, iPhone and Nokia.

I followed up the chart with comments about RIM, iPhone and Nokia sales.

The original comment, the chart, and the follow-up comment were all perfectly consistent.

Sorry about that.
post #127 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

What's a subthread? Can I join, or better yet, ban it?

.


A subthread is a side-discussion which breaks off of the main thread. It is less easily identified and dealt with in these HTML fora, which often do not allow for properly threaded discussions.

NNTP clients usually allow you to killfile subthreads, but AFAIK, it cannot be done with the particular HTML forum package that AI uses.
post #128 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by irnchriz View Post

With only 7.7 million Android phones shipped in 2009 (roughly 10 different models) how on earth do Microsoft think they can ship 30 million?

never underestimate the power of the IT drones...
post #129 of 157
Yeah!.. right!.. LOL!
post #130 of 157
I think there is a decimal placement error. He meant 3.0 million.
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post #131 of 157
But this one gave me a good belly bounce!!
post #132 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevetim View Post

If monkey boy jumps around the stage with his sweaty underarms I'll buy one.

If I can "squirt" music at people, I'll buy two!
post #133 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by reverie View Post

Why are people so obsessed with those "free" phones? Hello, there's still a $2000 contract attached to each "free" phone!

I find this a complete non-issue, especially in a worldwide perspective. 1, £1 etc. iPhones have been offered in Europe for 2 years now. And in much of the developing world, customers are paying full price upfront for their phones, that is $300 for the cheapest smartphone and $600++ for an iPhone.

Taking the US subsidized price as gospel is complete nonsense. This is a temporary local issue for Apple to solve in the US, where AT&T currently offers a $400 subsidy which is effectively blocking Apple from price drops. If they want to drop the iPhone price much lower than it is now, they have to persuade AT&T to drop their subsidy across all smartphones to say $200 and offer custumers cheaper monthly rates in return. Maybe introduce a $15 data plan with bandwidth cap, like on the iPad. Or something else. One will have to see how Apple plays it.

Please explain to me how AT&T's subsidy, regardless of the amount, would hinder Apple's ability to lower the price of an iPhone? I just can't follow your logic on this one.

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post #134 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by sheff View Post

I think there is a decimal placement error. He meant 3.0 million.

must be a rounding error...
post #135 of 157
I have worked in the games industry for 20+ years . While Playstation was ahead and I first heard Microsoft was bringing out a console I laughed so loud it hurt.

I was talking to one of the heads of Konami Europe at the time and we got into conversation regarding MS and the new console and he said to me that he had been speaking to MS about the XBOX and they told him there plan for domination of the console market, 1st gen was there (intro business model), 2nd gen(360) would put them in a good stead in the market and the 3rd gen(not out yet) would obliterate the competion. Is this becoming true from 9-10 years ago since the first model was introduced?

I guess the moral of this story is they have now got serious about smart phones and re-invested/re-shuffled various tech departments, they mean business with phones, and i'm absolutely positive they will succeed.
post #136 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by kotatsu View Post

Sorry to burst your bubble, but Win Phone has very limited multi-tasking just as the iPhone will later this year.

Android fanboy much?
The rumors have been that WM7 will have multitasking that's on par with iPhone OS 1.0, not iPhone 4.0 or Android or Palm.

Quote:
Neither actually has true multi-tasking. If you want that, you'll have to get a Windows Mobile device, or make due with Androids better but still not perfect multi-tasking.

Android has different multitasking than iPhone OS 4. Android multitasking is worse in some ways and only arguably better in other ways.

Quote:
I gather Palm OS has decent multi-tasking too.

In some ways it does not.
post #137 of 157
I am just overwhelmed with anticipation. Now whare did I put that $1.00?
post #138 of 157
Too much Prozac Steve!
post #139 of 157
Bill Gates was just quoted as saying "LOL_WUT!"
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post #140 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tofino View Post

never underestimate the power of the IT drones...

I realize you were making a joke but this brings up a very good point... Once upon a time the IT field staff were INCESSANTLY questioned about what to buy for home when it came to anything 'tech' oriented... Everyone in the workforce was VERY uneducated when it came to technology and the internet was something that I and a small handful of colleges where I worked had free rein over and the web wasn't even a glimmer in TBL's eye yet... Usenet traffic made up 80%+ of the internet backbone traffic maps (anyone remember those?).

Anyway... this is all OLD NEWS! Today, lots/most people have grown-up with computers and some can't even imagine doing school work or research without a laptop and a wifi connection and wouldn't know how to use a library card catalog if you paid em.

So sure once upon a time... Microsoft only really had to 'sell' themselves to the IT world and the drones regurgitated it back whenever they were asked what to buy.

This simply isn't true anymore... Microsoft has fallen off the map as a technological force to be reckoned with, a mover, a shaker, a driving force of the information age. Apple, Google, Yahoo, Facebook these are the names associated with our world today.

Sure, Microsoft can and will still have influence in the IT world but even that isn't what it once was...

MS is in a pretty bad place and are in DIRE need of an enormous makeover if they don't want to see themselves mover lower and lower on the list of companies that matter.
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post #141 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by macnyc View Post

If I can "squirt" music at people, I'll buy two!

I think the proper term is "ejaculate!"

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post #142 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveGee View Post

I realize you were making a joke but this brings up a very good point... Once upon a time the IT field staff were INCESSANTLY questioned about what to buy for home when it came to anything 'tech' oriented... Everyone in the workforce was VERY uneducated when it came to technology and the internet was something that I and a small handful of colleges where I worked had free rein over and the web wasn't even a glimmer in TBL's eye yet... Usenet traffic made up 80%+ of the internet backbone traffic maps (anyone remember those?).

Anyway... this is all OLD NEWS! Today, lots/most people have grown-up with computers and some can't even imagine doing school work or research without a laptop and a wifi connection and wouldn't know how to use a library card catalog if you paid em.

So sure once upon a time... Microsoft only really had to 'sell' themselves to the IT world and the drones regurgitated it back whenever they were asked what to buy.

This simply isn't true anymore... Microsoft has fallen off the map as a technological force to be reckoned with, a mover, a shaker, a driving force of the information age. Apple, Google, Yahoo, Facebook these are the names associated with our world today.

Sure, Microsoft can and will still have influence in the IT world but even that isn't what it once was...

MS is in a pretty bad place and are in DIRE need of an enormous makeover if they don't want to see themselves mover lower and lower on the list of companies that matter.

i hope you're right. i'm guessing however that microsoft will make sure that their implementation of ms office/exchange/etc. support on winmo7 is going to be better than what competitors will have access to. they will find a way to leverage their office/IT lock-in somehow. that's really all that's left now, isn't it?

it'll be interesting to see how they will try to catch their IT users while at the same time appeal to the consumer market. if the kin is any indication, it's going to be hilarious!

i'm just saying - don't count them out yet. maybe somebody is going to get a grip in redmond and actually do it right. not that i'm holding my breath...
post #143 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveGee View Post

I realize you were making a joke but this brings up a very good point... Once upon a time the IT field staff were INCESSANTLY questioned about what to buy for home when it came to anything 'tech' oriented... Everyone in the workforce was VERY uneducated when it came to technology and the internet was something that I and a small handful of colleges where I worked had free rein over and the web wasn't even a glimmer in TBL's eye yet... Usenet traffic made up 80%+ of the internet backbone traffic maps (anyone remember those?).

Anyway... this is all OLD NEWS! Today, lots/most people have grown-up with computers and some can't even imagine doing school work or research without a laptop and a wifi connection and wouldn't know how to use a library card catalog if you paid em.

So sure once upon a time... Microsoft only really had to 'sell' themselves to the IT world and the drones regurgitated it back whenever they were asked what to buy.

This simply isn't true anymore... Microsoft has fallen off the map as a technological force to be reckoned with, a mover, a shaker, a driving force of the information age. Apple, Google, Yahoo, Facebook these are the names associated with our world today.

Sure, Microsoft can and will still have influence in the IT world but even that isn't what it once was...

MS is in a pretty bad place and are in DIRE need of an enormous makeover if they don't want to see themselves mover lower and lower on the list of companies that matter.

Interesting post. My wife and I were in the middle of the Silicon Valley personal microcomputer-personal computer revolution from 1978-1989. We sold our business, retired and moved to Arizona. We hardly touched a computer for 7 years (burnout). So we missed that whole Internet thingie, and the metasticization of IT.

So, based on your experience:

-- What phones (OSes) does IT support?
-- Why?
-- What features are important to IT?
-- Do they need to manipulate MS Office documents with these phones?
-- Do they write proprietary apps for these phones?

Where does something like the iPad fit into the IT/Enterprise equation?

TIA

Dick
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post #144 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smiles77 View Post

If they paid people $100 to take their phone, I don't think they'd make their target.

M$ can afford more than $100/phone. I believe WP7 is in the same unit as xbox now. If xbox losses narrow (a big if) M$ could hemorage cash on phones next. I wouldn't be surprised if there were plenty of insentives. They have way too much cash in profits to bleed to death. I think Steve B made a point of noting the excess of their profits just recently.
post #145 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tofino View Post

i hope you're right. i'm guessing however that microsoft will make sure that their implementation of ms office/exchange/etc. support on winmo7 is going to be better than what competitors will have access to. they will find a way to leverage their office/IT lock-in somehow. that's really all that's left now, isn't it?

it'll be interesting to see how they will try to catch their IT users while at the same time appeal to the consumer market. if the kin is any indication, it's going to be hilarious!

i'm just saying - don't count them out yet. maybe somebody is going to get a grip in redmond and actually do it right. not that i'm holding my breath...

I posted to another thread (Balmer to speak at WWDC), that MS and Apple need each other.

MS needs time to get its mobile OS act together, and installed on significant (number and quality) devices to retain the IT market (that, according to what I read, is eroding quickly).

The way things are moving, I suspect that this needs to be done by the end of 2011. MS needs to build the OS, get mfgrs to build devices that support the OS, and then sell those 30 million devices.

If they fail, likely they will exit the mobile phone/tablet market.

... a pretty big risk!

What I suggested, was that there might be a better approach.

MS could support development for the Mobile OS X platform, by enhancing its tools (as others, have posted).

By doing, this:

-- MS can develop apps, and desktop/cloud app tie-ins, for a single platform.
-- IT MS developers can focus on a single platform
-- MS would not lose business to their enemy, google, but rather, to their frenemy Apple.
-- MS would have an immediate app presence on 3 hot devices iPhone, iPod Touch and the iPad
-- MS could make $ on these devices, here and now-- not some nebulous future date (that may never arrive)

Sure, it would lose the mobile OS revenue, for now!

But it would have mobile app revenue, the desktop/cloud tie-in revenue, and the developer/tools revenue.

It would learn to develop apps for the best UI/UEX/OS/devices out there.

It would tend to occupy IT developers and prevent them from developing Android apps, thwarting Google.


This would reduce the pressure (30 mill by 2012, or bust).

MS could focus on developing a front-runner OS for circa 2012 mobile devices!

If successful, MS and IT developers have an easy port of their apps to the new MS mobile OS.


But, say, that new MS OS never materializes. MS (and IT) have their apps (and the desktop/cloud tie-ins) running on the best mobile devices out there... and taking money to the bank.

It's kinda' like selling Office for the Mac OS platform-- Why not the same for the Mobile OS X platform.


MS has never, really, made money selling hardware (and likely wouldn't with smart mobile devices). The make their $ on OS and Office.

I doubt MS could make much on its mobile OS, given Android is free, and Mobile OS X, RIM OS, Nokia OS, Palm OS, etc., are free with the device.


Wouldn't half a pie be better than no pie at all?

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post #146 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Interesting post. My wife and I were in the middle of the Silicon Valley personal microcomputer-personal computer revolution from 1978-1989. We sold our business, retired and moved to Arizona. We hardly touched a computer for 7 years (burnout). So we missed that whole Internet thingie, and the metasticization of IT.

So, based on your experience:

-- What phones (OSes) does IT support?
-- Why?
-- What features are important to IT?
-- Do they need to manipulate MS Office documents with these phones?
-- Do they write proprietary apps for these phones?

Where does something like the iPad fit into the IT/Enterprise equation?

TIA

Dick

While I could do my best to bluff my way thru a few of your questions I have to be honest... I was diagnosed with a stage IV cancer (not good -- as there is no 'stage V') but as luck/fate would have it I worked at one of the biggest cancer centers in the world and I'm being attended to as best they can. I'm pretty much moving my way thru the chemos and just cross my fingers that a miracle happens before I get to the 'last chemo available'....

As I like to say... I don't pray for miracles I'm relying on them!

Anyway where I worked it was very much a split world... The M.D. / Patient side of the center is (mostly) 100% MS while the PhD / Research side of the center was 100% (mostly) Mac with a sizable invasion of Linux clusters as I was given my bad news.

A few things I can say with an almost 100% certainty...

- SECURITY is a H_U_G_E concern (tho I'd giggle as I said to the IT guys... yet you run WHAT OS?) ... As you might have guessed I supported the PhD guys with the Macs. Anyway with patient data AND unpublished RAW research that may be used to obtain vital grant funds... The loss of data to failure OR the loss of data due to device loss is a really big deal. HIPAA has gobs of protocols that they follow but on top of that additional rules were put in for the centers benefit that protects research data, notes, charts, etc.

- While I'm out of the loop I have heard that the center is doing mobile development work... they played with it a little with the palm but now the new devices are out they can do TONS of stuff they never though about doing before... our center had 8k-10k give or take employees (iirc) and lots of technology investments... I imagine this is still the case... needless to say programmers are a big part of the IT services since we have very specific needs that canned systems usually didn't meet and 'roll your own' was very often the final solution.

As to MS Word and such... I couldn't even begin to give an answer... but knowing how people worked on the research side, the only thing more useful than a 17" LCD was TWO 17" LCD's or 20" or 24" (as the years went on). I couldn't see 'those guys' working on anything in any meaningful way with their cell phone... Can't speak about iPads but the size is a plus but the fake keyboard might be a real dower to most 'old timers' that I worked with. The incoming younger lab heads... yea sure.. they're probably doing lots more with their iPhones (or whatever).

Like I said before ... as the years roll on you have more and more very tech savvy 'general public' (aka non IT workers). In fact tech savvy might very soon (already?) be an archaic term since the kids today can't NOT grow up knowing tech without really working hard at it.
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post #147 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by donlphi View Post

It's always great to set goals I suppose.

Unfortunately, you can't compare the two launches.

Apple iPhone OS available on the Apple iPhone with one service provider in one country at initial launch.

Windows Mobile 7 available on how many phones with how many service providers in how many countries at launch?

If they don't sell 30 million phones in a year, I would call it an epic fail.

Dude, I don't think they will be able to sell 3 Million in a year.
post #148 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveGee View Post

While I could do my best to bluff my way thru a few of your questions I have to be honest... I was diagnosed with a stage IV cancer (not good -- as there is no 'stage V') but as luck/fate would have it I worked at one of the biggest cancer centers in the world and I'm being attended to as best they can. I'm pretty much moving my way thru the chemos and just cross my fingers that a miracle happens before I get to the 'last chemo available'....

As I like to say... I don't pray for miracles I'm relying on them!

Anyway where I worked it was very much a split world... The M.D. / Patient side of the center is (mostly) 100% MS while the PhD / Research side of the center was 100% (mostly) Mac with a sizable invasion of Linux clusters as I was given my bad news.

A few things I can say with an almost 100% certainty...

- SECURITY is a H_U_G_E concern (tho I'd giggle as I said to the IT guys... yet you run WHAT OS?) ... As you might have guessed I supported the PhD guys with the Macs. Anyway with patient data AND unpublished RAW research that may be used to obtain vital grant funds... The loss of data to failure OR the loss of data due to device loss is a really big deal. HIPAA has gobs of protocols that they follow but on top of that additional rules were put in for the centers benefit that protects research data, notes, charts, etc.

- While I'm out of the loop I have heard that the center is doing mobile development work... they played with it a little with the palm but now the new devices are out they can do TONS of stuff they never though about doing before... our center had 8k-10k give or take employees (iirc) and lots of technology investments... I imagine this is still the case... needless to say programmers are a big part of the IT services since we have very specific needs that canned systems usually didn't meet and 'roll your own' was very often the final solution.

As to MS Word and such... I couldn't even begin to give an answer... but knowing how people worked on the research side, the only thing more useful than a 17" LCD was TWO 17" LCD's or 20" or 24" (as the years went on). I couldn't see 'those guys' working on anything in any meaningful way with their cell phone... Can't speak about iPads but the size is a plus but the fake keyboard might be a real dower to most 'old timers' that I worked with. The incoming younger lab heads... yea sure.. they're probably doing lots more with their iPhones (or whatever).

Like I said before ... as the years roll on you have more and more very tech savvy 'general public' (aka non IT workers). In fact tech savvy might very soon (already?) be an archaic term since the kids today can't NOT grow up knowing tech without really working hard at it.

Thanks for the answers!

You have a great PMA... my best thoughts go out to you!

I am 70 years old, and am really looking forward to reading your posts for the next 30 years, or so

Dick

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post #149 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

MS needs time to get its mobile OS act together, and installed on significant (number and quality) devices to retain the IT market (that, according to what I read, is eroding quickly).

The way things are moving, I suspect that this needs to be done by the end of 2011. MS needs to build the OS, get mfgrs to build devices that support the OS, and then sell those 30 million devices.

This is one thing that screamed out the second I read it ... "get mfgrs to build devices that support the OS" ... I have say this could be a real issue for them.

Yes the iPhone has a sizable lead and it's not slowing down. On top of that you have Google the 'Santa Clause' of the REST of the smart phone makers who can't innovate on their own (lets not anyone deny it - what smartphone is left ... of any significance other than the iPhone and Googles copy of the iPhone). Anyway Santa Google, who is just giving away their Android OS to any and all comers.

NOW ... it's obvious Apple isn't going to be licensing WinMobo7 (why would they trow away a wonderful acronym like WINCE... I just don't get it).

Okay so Apple is a NO...

Palm/HP ... Somehow I think they are so screwed up that they won't be doing anything meaningful with MS

Nokia.... Don't think they ever did anything before so I don't expect them to now.

LG? I dunno... but probably...

HTC that would be interesting to learn.... will they invest in MS after their success with Android?

Sony?

I mean who exactly is going to be devoting time. money, resources and reputation on building MS based phones when MS is expecting to charge for every phone built?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

If they fail, likely they will exit the mobile phone/tablet market.... a pretty big risk!

Seeing where the rest of the world is heading .... yes bowing out of the tablet and cell phone spaces would be tragic for MS.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

What I suggested, was that there might be a better approach.

MS could support development for the Mobile OS X platform, by enhancing its tools (as others, have posted).

By doing, this:

-- MS can develop apps, and desktop/cloud app tie-ins, for a single platform.
-- IT MS developers can focus on a single platform
-- MS would not lose business to their enemy, google, but rather, to their frenemy Apple.
-- MS would have an immediate app presence on 3 hot devices iPhone, iPod Touch and the iPad

Sure, it would lose the mobile OS revenue, for now!

But it would have mobile app revenue, the desktop/cloud tie-in revenue, and the developer/tools revenue.

What mobile revenue would they be loosing? Lets face it MS isn't even a slice of the smartphone pie... It's lumped in with 'other'. MS really need to do something BOLD but I just don't think they have it in them...

Wait... whats this... How odd... could I POSSIBLY be feeling bad for them? No, probably just gas...

Anyway... Microsoft... I just want to be informed when we can officially refer to them as 'A Beleaguered Microsoft' or I'd settle for 'A Beleaguered Dell' if everyone thinks MS still has a Hail Mary play they can pull off before the clock ticks down.
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post #150 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Thanks for the answers! You have a great PMA... my best thoughts go out to you! I am 70 years old, and am really looking forward to reading your posts for the next 30 years, or so Dick.

Thanks!

Any 30 years... that would make me 74 ... your lips to _anyone who'll listens__ ears - my dad buried his dad before he turned 60 and I buried my dad on the week of his 57th bday so SOMEONE has to break the streak! Anyway, I got my bad news on my 39th birthday and yea it may have knocked some wind from me... I'm too young, too tough and WAY too pissed off to be leaving anytime soon.
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post #151 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveGee View Post

Thanks!

Any 30 years... that would make me 74 ... your lips to _anyone who'll listens__ ears - my dad buried his dad before he turned 60 and I buried my dad on the week of his 57th bday so SOMEONE has to break the streak! Anyway, I got my bad news on my 39th birthday and yea it may have knocked some wind from me... I'm too young, too tough and WAY too pissed off to be leaving anytime soon.

Well, I wasn't planning on it, but I guess I'll just need to live an additional 30 + 26, just to stay in touch.

... though, it's pretty hard keeping up with three grand kids (9, 11 and 14)... can only imagine what they will be like as young-middleaged adults.

My wife Lucy died, suddenly, in 2001, at the age of 59 (seizure disorder). She remains an inspiration to me! I feel blessed that I knew her for 37 1/2 years.

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post #152 of 157
Good to have goals might be a bit unrealistuc though.

In the end I think one of the big things may be how many people like me there are, that have an iPhone, very happy with it but now want a new phone but not a newer iPhone as it's still basically the same phone.
post #153 of 157
Whatever Ballmer is smoking ... stay far away from it. As Gasée describes it:
Quote:
When the iPhone came out in 2007, Ballmer pronounced it a passing fad. Then, in 2008, he promised that Windows Mobile would have 40% market share by 2012. To be fair, he did recognize the failure in October 2009: [We] screwed up with Windows Mobile. The platform was effectively dead. Earlier this year in Barcelona, Ballmer introduced his new smartphone OS, Windows Phone 7 Series, available in time for the Holidays. Two months after the Barcelona event, two Kin phones emerge to a lukewarm receptionand neither of them run on the old generation software, nor the next one, orphaned at birth.

Undeterred, Ballmer now predicts there will be 30 million Windows Phone 7 smartphones sold in 2011. Ballmer has proudly proclaimed there will be no iPod or iPhone in his household, so thats a few Windows 7 Phones sold right there. As for the rest of the 30 million has he heard of Android? At last weeks Google I-O, the company announced there were over 100,000 Android phones activated every day, more than 35 million Android phones this year. Given the enthusiasm of handset makers for Googles OS, theyll probably sell twice as many next year. Ballmers Reality Distortion Field is overheating.
Blindness is a condition as well as a state of mind.

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Blindness is a condition as well as a state of mind.

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post #154 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by LouisTheXIV View Post

Laughing out loud.

That's a really bold statement but the os does look kind of cool. The key will be appmstores corprate AND consumer use ie exchange and it better be blinged to the hilt and work with no issues. Personally. I wanted to see the courier come to light. It may. It may not but one would think with such deep pockets, they could afford to do this. By the way, how is win7 selling, haven't seen any news in that and for them no more having to deal with 5 different os's all the time. That was really their archilles heal.
post #155 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by OhReallyNow View Post

without drinking too much haterade here, i'm guessing they'll fall short.

does anyone know of any "cool" devices that are supposed to debut with Windows phone 7? iPhone + cool android phones + RIM will do enough to keep a ton of purchases away from MSFT.

or am i being unreasonable?

This is ridiculous. Jobs's prediction was for potential sales of what was obviously a phone far advanced over the competition. Windows Phone 7 -- will it actually be Windows 7, or the Zune OS it will copy? With the major players all experiencing a lot of sales, Windows phones are shrinking out of existence. The phone will have to be fantastic to actually sell anything like that. They'd have to be giving them away with Crackerjacks boxes.

Windows has now lost iPad competitors: the HP one, that was demoed by Ballmer at the CES is gone, obviously using WebOS; Courier, which was pure vaporware, shown just ahead of the iPad the way Microsoft used to do to kill sales of a competing product -- no longer true; and recently, another no-show, the ThinkPad tablet that was a small laptop whose screen would detach -- they're coming out with an Android tablet.

Ballmer obviously can only think of launches as extending the Windows monopoly, but it's not there. In the mobile market, they're where Apple was in the desktop in 1998.
post #156 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by donlphi View Post

It's always great to set goals I suppose.

Unfortunately, you can't compare the two launches.

Sure you can. Windows 7 Phone has the same features as the first gen iPhone, although the hardware is fugly. Funny how it has taken the cloners at Microsoft only four years to clone the first gen iPhone.
post #157 of 157
Android is free, no vendor lock-in and is developing at a very appreciable pace.

Apple has a certain social cachet, and were the first with the new hotness in phones. New features tend to originate on iPhone.

Win Phone has to find their identity within those boundaries outlined above. I don't really see how MS can do it. WP7 won't be free, nor will they surpass Apple for innovation any time soon.

Look at Palm... great product; too little, too late. Great was not enough.

WP7 will be the next Web OS. Possibly great, but totally irrelevant.
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