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Microsoft hopes to triple iPhone's launch with Windows Phone 7 - Page 2

post #41 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by phastmac View Post

Windows Phone 7 will sell 3 million, 30 million is crazy. I will admit that I will be purchasing one during the holidays to give it a try on one of my lines.

1 down - 29,999.999 to go...
post #42 of 157
This is all about network externalities (if you ask me).

MS are well aware that they won't ship 30 m phones by the end of 2011. They probably think that they will sell about 3-10 million phones.

The phones today are not,however, only judged upon their interface and their ease of use but more and more on the amount of third-party applications available.

So if you as a developer knows that this platform will only have between 3-10 mio users by the end of 2011 you would rather develop to either iPhone/iPad or Android. And when the consumers realize this they are less eager to buy a phone from the MS platform.

In short: The more users the more phones they will sell.

MS knows this and that's why they say they will sell 30 m phones well knowing that they won't. But it is all about luring developers and user and thereby attracting more users and developers to the platform
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post #43 of 157
I think you got it wrong. There's steep growth in the smartphone market. It's on its way to reach well over 200 million this year and might reach 300 million units in 2011, so Microsoft would aim for "only" 10 % market share.

I also beg to differ with the claim that they only have 4 quarters to reach their goal. The first Windows Phones are scheduled for September, so they'll clearly have 5 quarters. This fact tunes their market share goal down to 8 % (30 of 370 million), which is ambitious, but possible.

In the end, it all hinges on the quality of their OS.
post #44 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by reverie View Post

In the end, it all hinges on the quality of their OS.

We are talking about M$ here, and as far as I remember Windows was never any good

(I'm just kidding here, please don't start any serious discussion on this comment)
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post #45 of 157
With only 7.7 million Android phones shipped in 2009 (roughly 10 different models) how on earth do Microsoft think they can ship 30 million?
post #46 of 157
Why are people so obsessed with those "free" phones? Hello, there's still a $2000 contract attached to each "free" phone!

I find this a complete non-issue, especially in a worldwide perspective. €1, £1 etc. iPhones have been offered in Europe for 2 years now. And in much of the developing world, customers are paying full price upfront for their phones, that is $300 for the cheapest smartphone and $600++ for an iPhone.

Taking the US subsidized price as gospel is complete nonsense. This is a temporary local issue for Apple to solve in the US, where AT&T currently offers a $400 subsidy which is effectively blocking Apple from price drops. If they want to drop the iPhone price much lower than it is now, they have to persuade AT&T to drop their subsidy across all smartphones to say $200 and offer custumers cheaper monthly rates in return. Maybe introduce a $15 data plan with bandwidth cap, like on the iPad. Or something else. One will have to see how Apple plays it.
post #47 of 157
AAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAHHAHA!!!!!


In all seriousness, I think that WP7 has potential, but there's no way that it will be anywhere near RIM, iPhone, Nokia, and Android in sales, at least not for the first few years.
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post #48 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by reverie View Post

Why are people so obsessed with those "free" phones? Hello, there's still a $2000 contract attached to each "free" phone!

You speak the tooth. To me, the most important price is outright/unlocked. I will never be tied down to a contract, never, particularly not in Canada because they are 3-years long!!!
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post #49 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by reverie View Post

I think you got it wrong. There's steep growth in the smartphone market. It's on its way to reach well over 200 million this year and might reach 300 million units in 2011, so Microsoft would aim for "only" 10 % market share.

I totally agree.

The smartphone market is still expanding at a rapid rate. Prince McLean is totally wrong when he says that Microsoft will need to outsell Apple and Google to reach its 30 million target. Both Apple and Google will be selling many more than 30 million phones per year in 2011 at current growth rates.

Anything less than 30 million and Windows Phone 7 will be an utter failure.
post #50 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by reverie View Post

Why are people so obsessed with those "free" phones? Hello, there's still a $2000 contract attached to each "free" phone!

I totally agree, and so do most people here (at least I think so). The thing however is that you have people that think about this kind of argument, and those that don't think about it. As most people don't, they see the initial price, and that is what is important to them. So if you take two equal phones, one subsidised with a higher price-plan and 1$, and one less subsidised, but with a lower price-plan, where the overall cost is cheaper for the one with a higher entry price, I will guarantee you that most people would buy the 1$ phone.

It's just they way things are. I for one will buy an iPhone in the UK for probably 300£ and a 24 months subscription of 25£/month. Overall cost is about 900£ over two years, and it suits my needs (there aren't that many minutes and texts, but I'm interested in the internet connection, and the iPhone of cours ). But how many people do consider the overall cost of the phone plus plan when buying it? I don't know any.
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post #51 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by applebook View Post

You speak the tooth. To me, the most important price is outright/unlocked. I will never be tied down to a contract, never, particularly not in Canada because they are 3-years long!!!

Do you get sim-only prices or do you have to pay subsidised price anyway?
"Put your hand on a hot stove for a minute, and it seems like an hour. Sit with a pretty girl for an hour, and it seems like a minute. THAT'S relativity." - Albert Einstein
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"Put your hand on a hot stove for a minute, and it seems like an hour. Sit with a pretty girl for an hour, and it seems like a minute. THAT'S relativity." - Albert Einstein
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post #52 of 157
This is delusional at best and only doable if they are dirt cheap, i.e. sold at a loss most likely after carrier subsidies. My guess is Microsoft's market cap will be $150 Billion and falling in 2011. At some point Ballmer will be carried out of a shareholders meeting on the end of a pitchfork
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post #53 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by shubidua View Post

We are talking about M$ here, and as far as I remember Windows was never any good

(I'm just kidding here, please don't start any serious discussion on this comment)

I was with you all the way until the part about kidding!
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post #54 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by macdanboy View Post

Wish in one hand and crap in the other ....... see which one fills up first. You have to wonder what's in the water in Redmond Washington.

knowone knows 100% what's going down. The
To happen but the new gui looks great and if released with all the major player vs just one, anything is possible. But they need s great app store to succeed.
post #55 of 157
When will they (MS) learn that the way to beat Apple, is to do something they aren't already doing, and then they will have the market locked up.

Oh that means being innovative ok, so option 2 is?

Skip
post #56 of 157
Most of the hardware partners MS would have are all making Android phones and those sales are going pretty decent so how many are going to put a full on press in regards to Windows Mobile 7 phones?

And I am assuming MS is going to charge for the OS while Android is free for them.

More profit.
post #57 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cpsro View Post

Ballmer thinks they'll do that without multitasking, when every other major smartphone platform has it???

Well, MS does have a lot of its own fanbois.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but Win Phone has very limited multi-tasking just as the iPhone will later this year. Neither actually has true multi-tasking. If you want that, you'll have to get a Windows Mobile device, or make due with Androids better but still not perfect multi-tasking.

I gather Palm OS has decent multi-tasking too.
post #58 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by kotatsu View Post

Sorry to burst your bubble, but Win Phone has very limited multi-tasking just as the iPhone will later this year. Neither actually has true multi-tasking. If you want that, you'll have to get a Windows Mobile device, or make due with Androids better but still not perfect multi-tasking.

I gather Palm OS has decent multi-tasking too.

Without wanting to start a classic discussion about the multi-tasking issue, what do you think misses in apples implementation? Any examples of usage where apple limits you?
(I'm really curious, no bad intentions here)
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post #59 of 157
What a pathetic joke. That hideous excuse for an OS is going to sell itself on 30 million phones? Not a chance in the world.
post #60 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by kotatsu View Post

Sorry to burst your bubble, but Win Phone has very limited multi-tasking just as the iPhone will later this year. Neither actually has true multi-tasking. If you want that, you'll have to get a Windows Mobile device, or make due with Androids better but still not perfect multi-tasking.

I gather Palm OS has decent multi-tasking too.

If you think the iPhone's multitasking is in anyway limited, then you know absolutely nothing about it.
post #61 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by DimMok View Post

April Fools!!!! hahaha

That would fit for Microsoft with respect to always being late.
post #62 of 157
I hope to have a billion dollars by the time I finish this post.

Hoping didn't work for me either.
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post #63 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by malax View Post

At least one. And a stylus.

Will be a difficult choice for many. Stylus or style?

Seriously, it looked pretty good on the surface. OTOH, this being the Microsoft Juggernaut, they'll probably fail at producing something decent. And then there is the fact that they have not got an app ecosystem.
post #64 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by irnchriz View Post

With only 7.7 million Android phones shipped in 2009 (roughly 10 different models) how on earth do Microsoft think they can ship 30 million?

Could be around 35 million this year though (if the 100,000 activations a day stays steady).

Android was very new last year, most phones weren't out until the final quarter.

I think the market has decided on iPhone and Android already. Even corporates are using the iPhone, and that's where Microsoft would have had a chance to sell Windows Mobile 7 devices - except that being incompatible and with its unprofessional user interface it's not going to be all that desirable for corporates even.
post #65 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by maccherry View Post

Here's where this story is garbage.
MS unlike Apple doesn't have hardware of their own. So,what that 30 million projection should say is that MS hopes that their hardware partners can crank out 30 million phones carrying the windows mobile 7 OS. Period.
That is the same misinterpreted info given when Android phones are talked about. Android and winmo mobile 7 are OSes sold by competing cell phone makers.
That is the right way of telling the story.

Isn't Windows Phone meant to be a hardware product from Microsoft? Like Zune and XBox and Keyboards?
post #66 of 157
I must say, Ballmer is incredibly optimistic about WP7, maybe there are things we all don't know about yet for this unreleased OS. But then again, this is M$ we're talking about, there are enough people that like their products to actually go out and use their haphazard technology.
post #67 of 157
Typical Microsoft. Announcing the product long before it arrives (if it arrives, anybody remember Cairo and Longhorn?) in the hopes that people will wait for "the Microsoft version". The world is different now. There are real alternatives and no developer is going to invest serious money in Windows Phone 7 on the basis of hopeful announcements about a non-shipping product.
post #68 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by zindako View Post

I must say, Ballmer is incredibly optimistic about WP7, maybe there are things we all don't know about yet for this unreleased OS. But then again, this is M$ we're talking about, there are enough people that like their products to actually go out and use their haphazard technology.

Ballmer is nothing if not optimistic or perhaps just thick skinned! Most people would have resigned long ago after such a career of utter abysmal failures. Personally I hope he has tenure for life.
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post #69 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

What a pathetic joke. That hideous excuse for an OS is going to sell itself on 30 million phones? Not a chance in the world.

Maybe Ballmer is going to achieve this by giving one free to every Zune owner ... Oh wait a minute .

What cracks me up is the enthusiasm for 7. Let's be honest, it is better than Vista. However, it is what MS should have released as an OS 15 years ago.
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post #70 of 157
MS has a phone?
post #71 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by gctwnl View Post

Typical Microsoft. Announcing the product long before it arrives (if it arrives, anybody remember Cairo and Longhorn?) in the hopes that people will wait for "the Microsoft version". The world is different now. There are real alternatives and no developer is going to invest serious money in Windows Phone 7 on the basis of hopeful announcements about a non-shipping product.

Not only do we have alternatives IMHO MS have lost credibility in the eyes of many. They are becoming the Buick of the tech world. Driven by old farts and always slow and in the way.
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post #72 of 157
...Ballmer stay employed?
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post #73 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by shubidua View Post

Do you get sim-only prices or do you have to pay subsidised price anyway?

We pay the full price regardless. Subsidy or not. Though, it's a tad easier to negotiate some credits with retentions if you don't have a highly subsidized handset.
post #74 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by iGroucho View Post

1 down - 29,999.999 to go...

Add one more to that. I friend of mine is a die hard MS fanboy and I'm sure will be buying one on release day. Truth is, of all my friends, colleagues and acquaintances, he's the only person I know who owns a Zune player (3 actually).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hattig View Post

...Even corporates are using the iPhone, and that's where Microsoft would have had a chance to sell Windows Mobile 7 devices - except that being incompatible and with its unprofessional user interface it's not going to be all that desirable for corporates even.

Agreed, I really can't see the UI of WP7 being terribly popular with the corporate crowd. To me, it seems much more tailored to the social networking crowd and the like.
post #75 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by OhReallyNow View Post

does anyone know of any "cool" devices that are supposed to debut with Windows phone 7? iPhone


http://www.engadget.com/photos/dell-...ice-leaks-out/


post #76 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by applebook View Post

You speak the tooth. To me, the most important price is outright/unlocked. I will never be tied down to a contract, never, particularly not in Canada because they are 3-years long!!!

That's what's even keeping me from considering the iPhone. 3 years is ridiculous. They'll offer other smartphones on 2 year contracts. But the iPhone is usually 3 years or nothing. I say nuts to that!

I ditched Rogers. Got a Nexus One on Wind. Soft cap unlimited data beats the pants off anything Rogers will ever offer with the iPhone. Heck, that 6GB for $30 isn't even a regular offer. And the overage rates are horrendous. With Wind, I got no overages, just some throttling if I go over 5GB. And even that's traffic dependent. If you're using data at a tower that's uncongested, no throttling.

I'll get an iPhone, when Apple gets the Canadian Big 3 in line with the rest of the world. Otherwise, I can actually see people migrating away from the iPhone in the rush to leave the Big 3 and embrace the new carriers....which run on AWS....hence no iPhone. Now if Apple wants to put out a new iPhone compatible with T-Mo USA and all the new entrants in Canada....that's a different story.
post #77 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleSwitcher View Post

That is my question too. Unless they give it for free to manufacturers, they'll never get enough models' support to reach that sales figure. And with iPhone 4G (and then 5G + multiple carriers in 2011) competition... poor delusional M$FT


Likely they have manufacturers already set up, and based on response from them, they forecast sales figures.
post #78 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by gctwnl View Post

Isn't Windows Phone meant to be a hardware product from Microsoft? Like Zune and XBox and Keyboards?

Nope. It's an OS like Android. Others will build the hardware. Expect HTC to be at the top of the list, after Apple cut them that side deal on their patents issue.
post #79 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by gctwnl View Post

Will be a difficult choice for many. Stylus or style?

I thought no stylus. It's all being revamped to be touch-based.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gctwnl View Post

Seriously, it looked pretty good on the surface. OTOH, this being the Microsoft Juggernaut, they'll probably fail at producing something decent. And then there is the fact that they have not got an app ecosystem.


Don't quote me on this, but I have heard people say that developing for WinPho 7 is a lot better than developing for any other platform. If that's true they'll be able to build an ecosystem more easily. Whether that ecosystem is as vibrant as Apple's or what Google's slowly building up is a different question.
post #80 of 157
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob55 View Post

Agreed, I really can't see the UI of WP7 being terribly popular with the corporate crowd. To me, it seems much more tailored to the social networking crowd and the like.

Agreed. I see this platform as the new home of the Twitteratti.
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