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Apple expected to sell 6.2M iPads in 2010 after strong overseas debut

post #1 of 50
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With the iPad crossing the 2 million sales threshold this week, one prominent analyst now believes Apple will sell 6.2 million devices in calendar year 2010, as many of the company's international stores have limited stock.

Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray issued a note to investors Tuesday, in which he upped his 2010 sales estimates from 4.3 million, citing strong early sales. 6.2 million in 2010 would add another 25 cents to his calendar year 2010 GAAP earnings per share estimates.

However, given ongoing low supplies of the iPad, Munster also cautioned investors that sales could be limited by availability. The analyst said he believes initial international sales over the weekend contributed at least another 100,000 units.

"We conducted 25 checks at Apple stores in the U.K., Germany, France, Japan and Australia, and found that supply exists after the first weekend of sales, but availability is very limited," he wrote.

Among the 14 international sales that were contacted on last Friday's launch day, 29 percent had sold out. Following the launch weekend, another 11 stores were contacted, and 36 percent were entirely sold out. Similar checks among U.S. Apple stores on May 21 found that 74 percent of stores were completely sold out.

"In other words, supply at international stores is limited and declining, similar to trends we saw at U.S. Apple stores," Munster wrote.



Apple announced on Monday that it had sold 2 million iPads in less than two months. That means Apple has sold about 34,000 per day on average, though Munster said numbers through April likely skewed lower than after launch due to limited U.S. supply. Apple reached its first million sales of the iPad in just 28 days.
post #2 of 50
6.2 million??? Try 10 million in calendar year 2010.
post #3 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cubert View Post

6.2 million??? Try 10 million in calendar year 2010.

This is Gene Munster.

Flip flop...

If I recall correctly, his initial assessment was 2.7 million and then he raised it to 5.6 million and then he lowered it to 4.3 million and now he raised it to 6.2 million.

All this in the last couple of months. I wonder how many more flips and flops before the end of the year? I pity the investors following the calls.
post #4 of 50
Right now production seems to be the limiting factor with respect to iPad sales. 10 million would be an easy number to hit this year if they could just get the product out the door. Frankly I'm not to sure Apple was prepaired to produce 1++ million a month.

Dave
post #5 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

Right now production seems to be the limiting factor with respect to iPad sales. 10 million would be an easy number to hit this year if they could just get the product out the door. Frankly I'm not to sure Apple was prepaired to produce 1++ million a month.

Dave

US demand seems to be satisfied for now with some stores actually having sets available for walk-ins.

First phase of international launches seems to have gone better than expected and the second phase is a month away. I wonder if they can make that date or will it have to be pushed back for stock to build up to have a significant launch?

Another thing to note, the new iPhone is supposed to be out soon as well. Apple has been great in phasing and staggering their product launches to maximize customer attention but this year may just be the year they bit off more than they can chew. The new iPhone will be announced and launched amidst an ongoing iPad launch (internationally), the iPhone OS4 update is due out, there should be some new iPods out as well, what about the MacBook Air and Mac Pro?
post #6 of 50
This is only iPad version one albeit two varieties too! I have to think Apple have several variations in the pipe line of devices using the same interface and OS. A larger version maybe, designed to rest on a table or desk.

Talking of OS I also have to think the new iPhone OS due soon will also be an upgrade in the making for the iPad. Multi-tasking and folders plus some simple, direct printing ability perhaps.
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post #7 of 50
I brought an iPad back to Japan from the US last month. Every single person who looked at it said they were going to get one.
post #8 of 50
Quote:
US demand seems to be satisfied for now with some stores actually having sets available for walk-ins

Both the Apple store I went to in Ohio and two Best Buys were completely out of all models. Also, the online ship time is listed as 7-10 Business days.

That does not seem like satisified demand to me.
post #9 of 50
Given how well the international launch went, the continued 7-10 day wait at the US online store, and no iPads in stock in Boston-area stores, I'm inclined to believe that supply is still the main issue. But we've just seen that Apple can make 1m iPads within a month, and production should be ramping upwards.

So I'm thinking 1.1m iPads sold in June for 3.1m for the quarter. Then 3.5-4m next quarter as early adopter rush passes but back-to-school buying picks up, but then another 5m+ during the Christmas quarter as iPad will be the premum Christmas gift (with no cell subscription complications). That's around 12m for the calendar year, and if supply is no longer an issue, it's more likely to be higher than lower.
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post #10 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by shard View Post

US demand seems to be satisfied for now with some stores actually having sets available for walk-ins.

Where? Was at 3 Apple stores past week, no supply, 2 week wait list, and packed with interested buyers of a very diverse make-up!

Quote:
First phase of international launches seems to have gone better than expected and the second phase is a month away. I wonder if they can make that date or will it have to be pushed back for stock to build up to have a significant launch?

Unless production has picked up to a $1.2MM rate, there might be some risk...

Quote:
Another thing to note, the new iPhone is supposed to be out soon as well. Apple has been great in phasing and staggering their product launches to maximize customer attention but this year may just be the year they bit off more than they can chew. The new iPhone will be announced and launched amidst an ongoing iPad launch (internationally), the iPhone OS4 update is due out, there should be some new iPods out as well, what about the MacBook Air and Mac Pro?

Very good point! Would they push the new iPhone out to July 1 just to ease the transition?! From the stores I was in, they really aren't in a position for the iPhone rush yet. Maybe they spread the wealth out to Best Buy and Walmart to soften the blow? More emphasis on online orders for launch?
post #11 of 50
Originally Posted by shard
US demand seems to be satisfied for now with some stores actually having sets available for walk-ins.
Where? Was at 3 Apple stores past week, no supply, 2 week wait list, and packed with interested buyers of a very diverse make-up!


I think you may have been in the MAC store and not an Apple store. Common mistake.
post #12 of 50
I think they will hit 10 million by years end. I say 9 million is the minimum.

Of course, this depend on supply and such.

The new iPhone should also have very strong sales so its hard to say if that might hit iPad sales a bit. Of course, the iPhone is a smartphone not the same as a iPad.

Some people might get by with a regular phone and get an iPad instead and some may buy the iPhone and delay or not buy an iPad. Never 100% sure what the consumer is thinking.

Mac sales will be interesting.
post #13 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cubert View Post

I think you may have been in the MAC store and not an Apple store. Common mistake.

Lol!

I think it is mostly luck which stores have it in stock and for how long.
post #14 of 50
PC Mag says 7.6 mil
post #15 of 50
As soon as i read "Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray...", i stop reading further.
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post #16 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by shard View Post

This is Gene Munster.

Flip flop...

If I recall correctly, his initial assessment was 2.7 million and then he raised it to 5.6 million and then he lowered it to 4.3 million and now he raised it to 6.2 million.

All this in the last couple of months. I wonder how many more flips and flops before the end of the year? I pity the investors following the calls.

I think Gene is on track to change his iPad 2010 sales estimate at least ten more times this year.

Sadly, AppleInsider will report all of them.
post #17 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by markb View Post

Both the Apple store I went to in Ohio and two Best Buys were completely out of all models. Also, the online ship time is listed as 7-10 Business days.

That does not seem like satisified demand to me.

Yeah, Apple typically tries to keep the channel primed with a two-week supply!

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post #18 of 50
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Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

I think Gene is on track to change his iPad 2010 sales estimate at least ten more times this year.

Sadly, AppleInsider will report all of them.

I hope you stick to your estimate of 10 and not flip flop to 4 then to 8 etc
post #19 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cubert View Post

6.2 million??? Try 10 million in calendar year 2010.

At the reported 2.5 million a month ramp-up, the total by New Years should be 2 + 7 x 2.5 = 19.5 million. I guess the issue is can all the parts suppliers keep up with the 2.5 million per month planned operation going into effect now.

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post #20 of 50
I was in a Best Buy store near St. Louis, Mo. yesterday. iPads were sold out. I asked a sales drone about it. He said they had no firm eta for more. As he walked away I heard him muttering "Apple, Apple, Apple." The tone in his voice id'd him as a frustrated Apple hater who just couldn't accept the fact that I was looking for an iPad. I still say Best Buy is utter poison for Apple and shouild be dropped as a retailer.
post #21 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

I think Gene is on track to change his iPad 2010 sales estimate at least ten more times this year.

Sadly, AppleInsider will report all of them.

LOL

So is this dude infamous for these sort of things or has just his ipad estimates been all over the place?
post #22 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

I think Gene is on track to change his iPad 2010 sales estimate at least ten more times this year.

Sadly, AppleInsider will report all of them.

Actually, I'd rather have analysts -- regardless of whom -- predicting 6.2 and Apple selling 10, than vice versa.

Will do wonders for my wealth.
post #23 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by shard View Post

This is Gene Munster.

Flip flop...

If I recall correctly, his initial assessment was 2.7 million and then he raised it to 5.6 million and then he lowered it to 4.3 million and now he raised it to 6.2 million.

All this in the last couple of months. I wonder how many more flips and flops before the end of the year? I pity the investors following the calls.

This is how it works. He's making estimates based on available data and trends. Without spending the day researching every potential reason for each prediction I'll just use an example scenario...

The first one was based on no actual iPad sales but looking at current interest and sales of other tablets for 2009; the next was after sales, interest and a report of 300k sold in under 2 days were higher than expected; the next was lowered because supply was unable to keep up with the demand he calculated previously; and the current one is based on international sales and a ramping of production.

He's not Nostradamus, even though it's his job to try to predict the future.


Quote:
Originally Posted by shard View Post

US demand seems to be satisfied for now with some stores actually having sets available for walk-ins.

A few stores with iPads doesn't make for the entire US to be with iPads. I've heard many reports that iPads are still not available for people that have called every store within a couple hour's driving distance.
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post #24 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

I think Gene is on track to change his iPad 2010 sales estimate at least ten more times this year.

Sadly, AppleInsider will report all of them.

The only thing that surprises me is that some people don't seem to get why new data results in new conclusions. Obviously some would have been more satisfied if Munster had picked a number back in January and stuck with it, no matter what happened later.
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post #25 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Actually, I'd rather have analysts -- regardless of whom -- predicting 6.2 and Apple selling 10, than vice versa.

Will do wonders for my wealth.

And actually, with "an embarassment of riches" vis-Ã*-vis Mobile OSX 4.0, potential iPhone hardware upgrade, iPad International phase 2 and so on, I think Apple however probably has this well-handled. I can't imagine that Apple, once recovered from the surprising demand for the iPad (as averred to by both Jobs and Cook), will change significantly the scheduled announcements and updates as they work through dove-tailing the iPad line into the update sequencing. The immediate release issues are just that, they may overlap some of the other announcements initially but this shouldn't be an issue they need to address long-term.
post #26 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

I think Gene is on track to change his iPad 2010 sales estimate at least ten more times this year.

Sadly, AppleInsider will report all of them.

Gene Munster.........Last person to listen to. Apparently submits his stories to AI for publicity. His Analysis leaves much to be desired.

Apple on track to sell about 9 to 10 million units. Keep in mind back to school 3rd quarter and the holiday 4th quarter which follows it. Supply constraint or other unknowns could slow it down.
post #27 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cubert View Post

6.2 million??? Try 10 million in calendar year 2010.

I'll see your 10 million and raise it by two. $12 million total.
post #28 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

This is how it works. He's making estimates based on available data and trends. Without spending the day researching every potential reason for each prediction I'll just use an example scenario...

The first one was based on no actual iPad sales but looking at current interest and sales of other tablets for 2009; the next was after sales, interest and a report of 300k sold in under 2 days were higher than expected; the next was lowered because supply was unable to keep up with the demand he calculated previously; and the current one is based on international sales and a ramping of production.

He's not Nostradamus, even though it's his job to try to predict the future.

Yes, but that type of analysis of Munster is short sighted, he might not be Nostradamus, but he should have some vision of the larger industry dynamics, available purchasing power of the target market, as well as some estimation of the markets requirement, and dare I say a gut feeling and vision (which of course if he had these last too he'd be investing for himself not analysing...). To just factor in and out a few things and produce an elevator of results is ultimately meaningless.
post #29 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by myapplelove View Post

Yes, but that type of analysis of Munster is short sighted, he might not be Nostradamus, but he should have some vision of the larger industry dynamics, available purchasing power of the target market, as well as some estimation of the markets requirement, and dare I say a gut feeling and vision (which of course if he had these last too he'd be investing for himself not analysing...). To just factor in and out a few things and produce an elevator of results is ultimately meaningless.

I agree with everything you've stated and I'm not defending Munster's method as being sound, just stating how I think he may be calculating his numbers.
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post #30 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Multimedia View Post

At the reported 2.5 million a month ramp-up, the total by New Years should be 2 + 7 x 2.5 = 19.5 million. I guess the issue is can all the parts suppliers keep up with the 2.5 million per month planned operation going into effect now.

I think supply will be the limiting factor now, with NAND flash being a particular problem. For Apple to do 10 million iPads, the semiconductor industry will need to increase output by about 300,000 wafers this year. That's the output of 1 pretty big fab, and there are none scheduled to come on-line until early next year.
post #31 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

This is how it works. He's making estimates based on available data and trends. Without spending the day researching every potential reason for each prediction I'll just use an example scenario...

The first one was based on no actual iPad sales but looking at current interest and sales of other tablets for 2009; the next was after sales, interest and a report of 300k sold in under 2 days were higher than expected; the next was lowered because supply was unable to keep up with the demand he calculated previously; and the current one is based on international sales and a ramping of production.

He's not Nostradamus, even though it's his job to try to predict the future.

That's true, but the argument that there's no accountability for analysts is also true.

I would like to see Fortune Magazine or Business Week or someone track the major analysts to determine what their accuracy is. One of two things will happen:

1. We would learn very quickly which analysts have a clue - and stop listening to the ones who are consistently wrong.

or

2. We'll learn that all the analysts are nothing more than random number generators - and stop listening to ALL of them.

It wouldn't really be that hard to do-and would do a lot more for investors than almost anything else that these magazine publish.
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post #32 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacTel View Post

I'll see your 10 million and raise it by two. $12 million total.

Somewhere, on one of these forums I was able to come up with the following, based on planned production ramp ups-- 1.5 million units june-Aug; 2.5 million units Sep-Dec.

. 3.5 Million units CQ 2
+4.5 Million units CQ 3
+7.5 Million units CQ 4
----------------------
15.5 Million units CYE 2010

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post #33 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

That's true, but the argument that there's no accountability for analysts is also true.

I would like to see Fortune Magazine or Business Week or someone track the major analysts to determine what their accuracy is. One of two things will happen:

1. We would learn very quickly which analysts have a clue - and stop listening to the ones who are consistently wrong.

or

2. We'll learn that all the analysts are nothing more than random number generators - and stop listening to ALL of them.

It wouldn't really be that hard to do-and would do a lot more for investors than almost anything else that these magazine publish.

I would guess their employers already do something along those lines.

Whilst I personally think a lot of what Gene Munster says is bizarre, it's unlikely Piper Jaffray would continue to employ him if he was useless.
post #34 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by markb View Post

Both the Apple store I went to in Ohio and two Best Buys were completely out of all models. Also, the online ship time is listed as 7-10 Business days.

That does not seem like satisified demand to me.

I don't think Apple is even close to caught up. I actually expect a ramp in sales as the software situation firms up and iPhone4.0 runs on the unit.

What I means by the software situation is the availability of iPad targetted apps instead of 2x iPhone apps. Frankly that is happening faster than expected as the utility consummer apps are already filling in. Still as more apps become available there will be fewer reasons for people to resist.

Of course with nothing available for sale resisting is a bit easier



Dave
post #35 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

This is how it works. He's making estimates based on available data and trends. Without spending the day researching every potential reason for each prediction I'll just use an example scenario...

The first one was based on no actual iPad sales but looking at current interest and sales of other tablets for 2009; the next was after sales, interest and a report of 300k sold in under 2 days were higher than expected; the next was lowered because supply was unable to keep up with the demand he calculated previously; and the current one is based on international sales and a ramping of production.

He's not Nostradamus, even though it's his job to try to predict the future.



A few stores with iPads doesn't make for the entire US to be with iPads. I've heard many reports that iPads are still not available for people that have called every store within a couple hour's driving distance.

The problem is not his accuracy but the frequency.

Talking for the sake of talking just to generate news. In most cases, analysts are rated not by their accuracy because they can always phrase their estimates to cover their asses but by how often they are quoted, by constantly changing their estimates by wide margins, they artificially generate extra quotes and because there are so many estimates made, it is easy to fall back on an earlier estimate and say, I got it right.
post #36 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by msantti View Post

I think they will hit 10 million by years end. I say 9 million is the minimum.

As long as there are no burps in the supply chain. I expect strong sales all year with a possible big bump when iPhone OS 4.0 arrives.
Quote:

Of course, this depend on supply and such.

The new iPhone should also have very strong sales so its hard to say if that might hit iPad sales a bit. Of course, the iPhone is a smartphone not the same as a iPad.

The interesting thing here is that I was expecting to upgrade my iPhone with the new release next week. However iPad has me rethinking the rush to do that.
Quote:
Some people might get by with a regular phone and get an iPad instead and some may buy the iPhone and delay or not buy an iPad. Never 100% sure what the consumer is thinking.

Count me as one that is torn. I'm actually considering several options but I can actually see iPad depressing iPhone sales. In my case I don't spend a lot of time talking on my cell, iPhone though allows me to really keep myself organized. I'm not sure I want to give up having all those features in my pocket.

So I will take a long hard look at the new iPhone instead of jumping the gun. It is a tuff decision but I want to minimize my expenses in the best way possible.
Quote:
Mac sales will be interesting.

If anything at all is impacted it would be laptop sales. Honestly though I don't see a big impact from iPad and iPhone sales. If anything we are likely to see a continued rise in sales due to that halo effect.
post #37 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

That's true, but the argument that there's no accountability for analysts is also true.

I would like to see Fortune Magazine or Business Week or someone track the major analysts to determine what their accuracy is. One of two things will happen:

1. We would learn very quickly which analysts have a clue - and stop listening to the ones who are consistently wrong.

or

2. We'll learn that all the analysts are nothing more than random number generators - and stop listening to ALL of them.

It wouldn't really be that hard to do-and would do a lot more for investors than almost anything else that these magazine publish.

The Wall Street Journal just came out with their annual list of 'star' analysis, sorted by industry. Munster was not in the top 5 in his industry (http://online.wsj.com/public/page/be...he-street.html ; need a subscription to see, though).

As to whether recommendations of star analysts matter, the short answer is yes, sort of. The classic study in that area is: "Reputation and Performance Among Security Analysts," Scott E. Stickel, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 47, No. 5 (Dec., 1992), pp. 1811-1836. (If you googled it, you should be able to see an abstract somewhere).
post #38 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

Count me as one that is torn.

I expect to keep (and upgrade) my iPhone and get an iPad. My envisioned uses for my (on order, soon to arrive) iPad seem to center around tasks done while sitting. I have found that much of my Internet use of the iPhone is done while standing. In these cases, there's a very good chance the iPad won't be with me. Thus, I feel a personal need to have both. (Any excuse for new toys, eh?)
post #39 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

I was in a Best Buy store near St. Louis, Mo. yesterday. iPads were sold out. I asked a sales drone about it. He said they had no firm eta for more. As he walked away I heard him muttering "Apple, Apple, Apple." The tone in his voice id'd him as a frustrated Apple hater who just couldn't accept the fact that I was looking for an iPad. I still say Best Buy is utter poison for Apple and shouild be dropped as a retailer.

It's possible that the decision to invest in the creation of the Apple Store was the most important decision that Jobs made. The bias of store clerks in big box stores was a continuing, almost implacable challenge for Apple until they opened their own stores. The irony is that changing the environment changed the sale of Apple products from a depressed ghetto off in a corner to the apex of the retail world. It shows the incompetence of the management of Best Buy and others.

As a matter of logistics it is necessary to include Best Buy, Radio Shack, Walmart and others because there is just too much territory and too many people to cover. I bought my iPad at Best Buy because it is much closer than the only Apple Store in Tucson. But as your anecdote illustrates it is still important for Apple to continue building Apple Stores.
post #40 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cubert View Post

6.2 million??? Try 10 million in calendar year 2010.

I know, right?

I completely agree with the 10 million + assessment (although much depends on Apple's ability to supply the demand).

They've sold 2 million already. If they can maintain a manufacturing level of 1 million units a month, I think they'll easily sell them. That would add another 7 million to the sales total (there are 7 months left in the year). That's 9 million.

If they can ramp up production, they'll easily sell an additional million. I actually think they'll sell pretty much everything they can produce at any level. If they can ramp to 2 million a month, they'll sell all of them, even if only by opening additional markets.

Next year, 20 million easily. With 30 million iPads in the market (and by then easily a few 10s of thousands of iPad-specific apps), the ecosystem takes on its own momentum.

Apple, the unstoppable force...
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