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Apple expected to sell 6.2M iPads in 2010 after strong overseas debut - Page 2

post #41 of 50
6/1/10 at 1:52pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by shard View Post

The problem is not his accuracy but the frequency.

Talking for the sake of talking just to generate news. In most cases, analysts are rated not by their accuracy because they can always phrase their estimates to cover their asses but by how often they are quoted, by constantly changing their estimates by wide margins, they artificially generate extra quotes and because there are so many estimates made, it is easy to fall back on an earlier estimate and say, I got it right.

I actually disagree with you 100%.

Munster was rightfully criticized when he put in a million "what if's" when he predicted the 45 million iphone a year number --- 3 years later and we still haven't seen the mythical nano iphone. China didn't start selling the iphone 2 years later. He put the cart in front of the horse when he was making his estimates.

Now Munster is doing the right thing. When number sales numbers come in, Munster changes his estimate models. When actual news come in (like Apple actually announces international sales in this and that country), Munster changes his estimate models.

Do you want Munster to make his estimates on known facts or on some mythical rumors? We have no idea when China is going to sell the ipad. It may be next quarter or it may be in 2 years. I rather prefer Munster to make his estimates right now --- without looking at the China rumor. When Apple announces the China launch date, then Munster can make a new estimate by that time.
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post #42 of 50
6/1/10 at 3:20pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

I was in a Best Buy store near St. Louis, Mo. yesterday. iPads were sold out. I asked a sales drone about it. He said they had no firm eta for more. As he walked away I heard him muttering "Apple, Apple, Apple." The tone in his voice id'd him as a frustrated Apple hater who just couldn't accept the fact that I was looking for an iPad. I still say Best Buy is utter poison for Apple and shouild be dropped as a retailer.

I finally bought an iPad from a Best Buy out here in the Bay Area this morning, and found pretty much the exact opposite. The chap who sold me it was clearly an Apple fan and seemed delighted that I wanted one.

Conversely, the last person who served me in an Apple store was an arsehole!

Human nature I guess........
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post #43 of 50
6/1/10 at 4:23pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

This is how it works. He's making estimates based on available data and trends. Without spending the day researching every potential reason for each prediction I'll just use an example scenario...

The first one was based on no actual iPad sales but looking at current interest and sales of other tablets for 2009; the next was after sales, interest and a report of 300k sold in under 2 days were higher than expected; the next was lowered because supply was unable to keep up with the demand he calculated previously; and the current one is based on international sales and a ramping of production.

He's not Nostradamus, even though it's his job to try to predict the future.

Assuming that all analysts get about the same data, then they all have a fairly equal chance at making an accurate prediction.

The problem with Munster is that he's often wrong. These analysts are rated by StarMine in terms of accuracy of predictions, etc. They're graded on a curve, so the top 10% get five stars, the bottom 10% get one star.

Gene Munster (like Katy Huberty at Morgan Stanley and Shaw Wu at Kaufman Bros.) is not a "star analyst" (a four- or five-star rated analyst). He doesn't understand Apple and he doesn't understand this market.

Brian Marshall and Andy Hargreaves are two "star analysts". They are less wrong than their peers.

It's not the act of reporting analyst predictions that's a problem here at AppleInsider. It's the choice of analysts. They should be actively ignoring Munster, Wu, Huberty, Enderle, and Gartner.
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post #44 of 50
6/1/10 at 5:19pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I agree with everything you've stated and I'm not defending Munster's method as being sound, just stating how I think he may be calculating his numbers.

Fair enough!
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post #45 of 50
6/1/10 at 5:21pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

Assuming that all analysts get about the same data, then they all have a fairly equal chance at making an accurate prediction.

The problem with Munster is that he's often wrong. These analysts are rated by StarMine in terms of accuracy of predictions, etc. They're graded on a curve, so the top 10% get five stars, the bottom 10% get one star.

Gene Munster (like Katy Huberty at Morgan Stanley and Shaw Wu at Kaufman Bros.) is not a "star analyst" (a four- or five-star rated analyst). He doesn't understand Apple and he doesn't understand this market.

Brian Marshall and Andy Hargreaves are two "star analysts". They are less wrong than their peers.

It's not the act of reporting analyst predictions that's a problem here at AppleInsider. It's the choice of analysts. They should be actively ignoring Munster, Wu, Huberty, Enderle, and Gartner.

On a tangent, have you found starmine a useful and accurate investing resource?
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post #46 of 50
6/1/10 at 6:11pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

I actually disagree with you 100%.

Munster was rightfully criticized when he put in a million "what if's" when he predicted the 45 million iphone a year number --- 3 years later and we still haven't seen the mythical nano iphone. China didn't start selling the iphone 2 years later. He put the cart in front of the horse when he was making his estimates.

Now Munster is doing the right thing. When number sales numbers come in, Munster changes his estimate models. When actual news come in (like Apple actually announces international sales in this and that country), Munster changes his estimate models.

Do you want Munster to make his estimates on known facts or on some mythical rumors? We have no idea when China is going to sell the ipad. It may be next quarter or it may be in 2 years. I rather prefer Munster to make his estimates right now --- without looking at the China rumor. When Apple announces the China launch date, then Munster can make a new estimate by that time.

It is normally a good thing when an analyst updates his estimates when new information becomes available. But flip flopping between 2 extremes and sometimes in the period of less than a day is ridiculous.

Analysts are supposed to study the market then make an educated guess and not shoot their mouth off every chance they get with inaccurate estimates that they constantly change.
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post #47 of 50
6/1/10 at 6:59pm
Got mine yesterday and I have to say it's one of the most impressive devices I have ever used.

Nice going, Apple!
iPadinTouch - iPad software reviews and iPad news tips
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iPadinTouch - iPad software reviews and iPad news tips
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post #48 of 50
6/1/10 at 8:24pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

The only thing that surprises me is that some people don't seem to get why new data results in new conclusions. Obviously some would have been more satisfied if Munster had picked a number back in January and stuck with it, no matter what happened later.

I agree that he's better off trying to analyze current data and adjusting future sales accordingly. It does make it seem like he's actually working to get his figures instead of just pulling them out of the air.

I don't think Foxconn is capable of building one million plus iPads a month. I would also think it would be a nightmare trying to figure out which versions to build the most of. Apple should just build the least of the 16 GB capacity models. I'm sure most users are going for the larger capacity iPads. Truthfully, I didn't think Foxconn would be able to build more than 7 million iPads for the whole year due to parts shortages. I didn't think they could foresee to put together such a large inventory without preparing for overwhelming demand.
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post #49 of 50
6/1/10 at 10:10pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

I agree that he's better off trying to analyze current data and adjusting future sales accordingly. It does make it seem like he's actually working to get his figures instead of just pulling them out of the air.

I don't think Foxconn is capable of building one million plus iPads a month. I would also think it would be a nightmare trying to figure out which versions to build the most of. Apple should just build the least of the 16 GB capacity models. I'm sure most users are going for the larger capacity iPads. Truthfully, I didn't think Foxconn would be able to build more than 7 million iPads for the whole year due to parts shortages. I didn't think they could foresee to put together such a large inventory without preparing for overwhelming demand.

I don't think we have any way of knowing how many they are capable of building, and of course Apple isn't stuck with just the one factory. I also imagine Apple has a much better feel for which models are in demand than any of us will ever have. I prefer not to guess.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #50 of 50
6/2/10 at 9:30am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

I don't think we have any way of knowing how many they are capable of building, and of course Apple isn't stuck with just the one factory. I also imagine Apple has a much better feel for which models are in demand than any of us will ever have. I prefer not to guess.

Foxconn won't be the limit - availability of flash memory will be.
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