iPad is harbinger of 'uncomfortable' transition to post-PC, Jobs says - Page 2

What Mr. K says.

The iPad will eat the lunch of the take-anywhere casual use laptop IMHO.

In business, Road Warriors doing email and presentations do not need to create content in the way professionals do in the media industry.

We could see a clamshell iPad version replace the Air, reducing the platform count for Apple, just as the iMac and Mini have what is basically a quasi laptop motherboard inside (or it did at first).

The transition is helped by MobileMe and cloud services and/or personal/home servers, bringing back to life the powerful deskside. If I had the £, I would be considering a powerful MacPro to VNC into. When we get the next gen wireless able to blast multiple streams of HD content out, this gets easier.

So "casual" and consuming mobile is A4 based (iPhone soon?, iPad, iClam*), pro-creative mobile and home desktop is i5/i7 based (MBP, iMac, Mini), with pro desktop throbbing away with 12/18/24 Xeon and up.



* (tm)

Wait.. when Steve says "PC" is he talking about the general "Personal Computer", ie, Windows based machines AND Macs? Or is he just talking about Windows? That always confuses me.

I'm using "PC" in the same context as Jobs. I don't mean Windows vs Apple.









He means Windows and Macs. It's confusing after the "I'm a Mac" campaign, I know.

I think now I understand your intent of your initial post.

There are those that confuse their knowledge of the modern PC with what their needs actually are. They are the same people that walk into a store saying they need OFfice "just in case".

Good analogy.

Excellent post Jim. I'm thinking I might be able to use an iPad as a chart plotter while out sea-kayaking for example. Software from Navionics is already there and working fine on my iPhone.

No one said it was. Jobs specifically said that even as tablets and other form factors become more powerful that some people would still need PCs.

The problem with so many whiners is that they have no vision - and immediately misconstrue everything Apple says.


Jobs specifically said that. Something to the effect of "this year we're talking about iPad and iPhone. Other years, it is Macs"


Jobs specifically talked about content creation, so it's not being ignored. The point is that for most of what most people do, the iPad is fine. That doesn't mean that it will do EVERYTHING.


My ex is like that (as is my mother). I had a 10 minute conversation with my ex - her internet stopped working after a power failure and I was trying to explain how to reset the network. I thought that 'unplug the cable modem' would be clear, but it wasn't. It took at least 5 minutes to get her to understand which box was the cable modem and which cable she should unplug. Then another 3-4 minutes to get her to unplug the router. Some people just don't get technology, nor do they care to. They are more concerned with getting their email or checking a web site or whatever. The iPad suits that group perfectly.


Then don't. No one has said that you won't be able to buy a Mac or a PC. In fact, it was specifically stated that some people WOULD continue to buy PCs.

Why do people get so stirred up about things without reading the article?


Why not listen to what Apple is very clearly saying instead of panicking every time one of the whiners spews their FUD?


No one ever said that. Read the article before making a fool of yourself.

This notion is just silly. First of all, The iPhone OS runs on the same technology as OS X.

Second, WWDC not having a big OS X presence means about nothing. It's much more likely that Apple simply has nothing to show.

The only reason Apple's OS releases were coming out just about yearly was because of its immaturity and Apple's resolve to improve the OS quickly. Does Microsoft or anyone else have some big reveal of their new OS versions yearly?

The laptop isn't going anywhere and this is why.

Apple's best selling computers are it's MacBook Pro's because it's the portable Swiss Army Toolbox of features and abilities.

The MacBook Air doesn't nearly sell as well, because it has less features for a slimmer design.

The iPad has even less features and abilities, so less likely people will find a use to bring it along than a laptop.

People need a portable phone, so enhancing the iPhone with computer like features sold well.

The iPod sold well because it allows people to bring all their music with them.


So you see the trend, the more features people can take with them, the more popular the device will be.


In my opinion the iPad is a "halo device" designed to get the $500+ computer crowd into Apple Stores and hopefully up sell them into a Mac immediately or later on as they need a PC replacement.

For those who are panicking that the death of Mac OS X is imminent:

1. Take a deep breath and get a grip.

2. Go look up the definition of 'harbinger'

3. Review the automotive analogy used. Did the trucks disappear in SJ's analogy? Will they ever?


That's all. Much ado about nothing.

Did you realize that there is already loop creation and multi-track recording software for iPad? There's even a cool program that lets you use it as a control surface for Logic, Soundtrack Pro or Protools.

I'm sure photo and video editing software will come in time.

I really am shocked at the hysteria I'm seeing. I love my 27" iMac and certainly will not give it up. But at the same time, there are a lot of things my iPad does far better than my desktop. Steve isn't trying to discourage people whi want the flexibility of trucks from buying them! He has the best and most expensive trucks on the market, after all.

What he's noticing is that there is also a market for cars ... And the sheer brilliance of that should not be understated.

Everyone seems to be acting as through there is a new tyranny coming that I'll let only authorized people use computers! It's not happening, people ... You just have a new choice.

Relax .

D

If anything, netbooks will die off in favor of the iPad or like devices (probably an Android tablet of sorts).

Traditional computers will still soldier on for those who need/want them but, as people become comfortable with the iPad and its like and figure out the right use cases for them, they will probably be supplanted to a great degree.

Just as traditional desktops have given way to laptops, there are still desktop computers for those who want them. I don't think any sort of panic/pessimism is warranted here.

Everyone seems to be acting as through there is a new tyranny coming that I'll let only authorized people use computers! It's not happening, people ... You just have a new choice.

Exactly! Use whatever is the best tool for the job(s), no pun intended! I use my iPad (when I can prise it from my wife's hands!) for completely different things than I use my Mac Pro and I love them both to bits!

Yes, exactly. I am one such user. I am a university professor and my MBP is my primary computer. I give 4 - 6 lectures a week with it, and use it as my primary machine for research and writing. I do use a dedicated Mac Pro to run my research experiments, and big-job data analysis, and as an informal server.

I think it will be a long time before a device like an iPad will be able to replace even my MBP, and could never replace the Mac Pro because it interfaces, controls, and coordinates several external electronic and mechanical devices.

I have yet to buy an iPad because the things I need for it are not yet available, but when they are, it will change the way I work. My hope is that an iPad would be a complement to my MBP. For example;

1) Giving lectures, I would love to wirelessly interface with Keynote on my MBP to control my presentations and have access to my notes. The current version of Keynote for the iPad doesn't support presenter's notes, and won't simultaneously output video to a projector system and the built in display like a MBP does. Once these limitations are overcome, an iPad could replace my MBP for doing lectures.

2) For writing and bibliographic research, an iPad would revolutionize my workflow, by using an iPad as an e-reader for textbooks and journal articles. So, when I'm writing a lecture or working on a research manuscript, I can have an electronic version of the textbook(s) I'm using for a class or a journal article I'm referencing in a manuscript on the iPad side by side with my MBP, so I can read and write at the same time, just like with a paper copy. Even better once references like the CRC Handbook and the APA Publication Manual are available electronically.

3) I would love to be able to have electronic copies of not just textbooks and journal articles, but also have a durable mark-up system as well, so that I could make notes, underline, even make small diagrams, etc. in the margins. Even better if such a system worked similarly to how comments/notes work in Pages, where you can set a small icon for notes or the first few words of it. Having electronic versions of textbooks, reference books, etc. would save me carting around several pounds of paper books ever day.

4) I've seen there are already full-screen note taking apps available for the iPad. This would allow me an easy way to take notes at lab meetings, conferences, administrative meetings etc. and not have to rely on paper notes. If an effective and reliable solution for converting my handwriting (I'm a professor, my handwriting isn't legible to most other people) to text, it would seal the deal for me.

The potential for the iPad is tremendous; it would revolutionize my work, and I'm sure for some people it already is. I need both the software and hardware to be more mature before an iPad will do what I need though, and until then, I can't justify buying one (especially to my wife) just for browsing, email, and content access.

Yeah, Apple invented a hammer... and suddenly everything looks like a nail.

I've been a purely a reader of the AI forums for years but for some reason feel strongly compelled to respond to some of the completely foolish and dense things that are being said on this one.

Why can't many of you people grasp the process, subtleties, and inevitability of tech evolution? In five years, if we're well on our way to a post-pc era (which we will be), it'll be because mobile devices have surpassed what users want from their computers.

Does that mean the PC will be left behind? Will content creation be a thing of the past? What do you THINK?

Use your brains for a second (some people appear to flap their lips without processing reality for a moment). With the introduction of a new class of device that carries out common computing tasks, we will still NEED a stationed device to do our heavier work (faster computing, larger screens, home entertainment), and as long as the people creating these devices are HUMAN, they will realize that. Trust me, your vapid comments about clinging to what you already know and are comfortable with for the sake of convenience, will not help.

Will OS X remain what it is? If you ask me, the answer is no, because mobile devices will undoubtedly change the landscape of our PCs' purpose. Will there be a solution for our heavier tasks? Again, undoubtedly. And it will be a hell of a lot more amazing and functional than what we have now. I'll bet my fertility on it.

I wish our education system more sincerely valued imagination and critical thinking. We wouldn't have so many people griping about CHANGE (which is inevitable)... and would rather be supporting it with positive ideas to guide it in the right direction.

I RTFA and the comments and decided to chip in my comment that's all. This doesn't change even if you think I'm a fool for doing so. Meaning even though I do understand what Steve said my opinion on what certain people think is going to happen is still the same and I'm not sorry for it. Don't like it? Tough.

iPad -> Consumer

Mac -> Prosumer

Prosumer makes content for Consumer.

They will have both, but much better.

The transition I don't mind is that the PC is less static. I personally don't like having to sit in one place to interact with my computer, I'd like to move around with it and while a laptop seems like a better fit, the screen on its own is much lighter.

The iPad that can control a desktop sitting in a room somewhere but anywhere in the house would be fine until one day mobile components are fast enough that the iPad can be the only device required.

The form of computers will be decided by tasks. If a cut down machine can do all the tasks you need to do then it serves its purpose and another machine isn't required no matter how you look at it.

I still think ultimately that the mobile phone is the place to look, not the tablet space. When you have a list of requirements on a device and you progress through time, the one feature a mobile phone will always have over any other is being able to put it in your pocket. There will be no other feature that any other form factor will have that supersedes the mobile phone eventually.

Critical thinking isn't just accepting everything that is spoon fed to you so to speak. I wouldn't mind change in OS X for the better but that's just it.. it has to be for the better. So no I don't expect it to always be the same but on the same token I don't want them to throw the baby out with the bath water. That's just my opinion. It doesn't mean I'm having a heart attack over it nor does name calling or calling me an idiot change my opinion. To be honest though our comments here aren't going to guide it no matter what especially since Apple doesn't troll the forums for ideas.

So while I do imagine and like new uses for things like the iPad I still see a place for bigger form factors such as the Mac. Especially when the iPhone OS remains a walled garden.

"Harbinger" = "doesn't exist yet"

Apple lists among the system requirements for the iPad that you have an actual computer.

Mobile devices may be a better fit for you. But that's personal preference. For some tasks a mobile device may be a good fit for me. But most of those tasks are outside the home\\office. When I am here I'd rather do my heavy lifting with a bigger screened personal computer with its peripherals setup ergonomically. Right now I haven't been using my notebook much because I don't have as much to do outside of the house. Even my iPod isn't seeing as much use because it too is mostly useful for me for when I'm not here. So as far as I'm concerned something like my 27 inch iMac will be necessary for some time to come. If I had a mobile device as my primary computer it'd be docked 99% of the time and that's kind of a waste for a mobile device. For most of the things I do there's no added value for dragging around a small personal device computing device around the house experiencing everything on a small screen... except perhaps tasks that is suited for like reading ebooks. Even listening to music is better on my full computer hooked up to my big stereo. So like I've said things like the iPad are great as satellite devices but not as my sole computing device. That is until perhaps in the distant future when it has enough power to outstrip the requirements of all things and can dock and has a UI that adapts to all situations. But again I like keeping my mobile life separate. Not even sci-fi characters are expected to have mobile devices as their sole computing device.

The walled garden isn't as big of a deal as people make it out to be.

HTML5 web apps can do a whole heck of a lot and they're cross-platform, to boot.

Any time you throw an idea out into the universe, it matters, whether or not Apple is trolling.

But what are you really bringing to the table? You say "for the better", but I would simply argue they are obviously always changing it for the better, and Jobs already discussed that there's a place for the PC.

Go back to the cave.

As I was playing with the iPad at the local Apple store I had that same idea. I thought, "How do I put it into my shoulder bag and make sure the exposed screen doesn't get damaged bumping up against something else?"

Then it hit me: a clamshell form factor!

And then I thought: They could put a physical keyboard on the other half of the clamshell!

As I removed the iPad from its carefully crafted pedestal and put it on the table at the store I noticed that the curved back makes it hard to type on a flat surface. Good job with the pedestal, as it avoids that uncomfortable moment of realization.

So I thought: It would be great if there was some way to type on this without propping it up against my knee or holding it with one hand.

And then I bought a netbook.

Similar size, similar weight, runs millions of apps, lets me run R, has two USB ports, SSD slot, built-in screen protection, comes with a physical keyboard, has a webcam - and comes bundled with an entire computer.

Extra bonus points: saved me $200 too.

You're not doing any better. What exactly are YOU bringing to the table with your comments? Especially telling people to "go back to their caves" just because their opinions differ to yours. Everyone has ideas but that doesn't mean they are feasible or if they are that they should be given away in a forum. IMO not many of the comments here have brought much to the table when you come down to it. We're all stating our opinions based upon what we do and what our preferences are. Is it so wrong for me to think that different devices have different tasks they are best suited to?

Agreed.

It's the beginning of a transition period when desktops become less prevalent, but it doesn't mean they are going away anytime soon.

The new mobile platform will however replace the "casual second computer" market. In other words almost all netbook users and a very large chunk of the people that currently buy laptops.

What's happened recently is that people need their computers to be portable, thus the rise of the laptop. The netbook and before it the PDA, pushed the small portable computer concept to the limit, and while people followed, they didn't work as solutions for most users. The new mobile (Tablet/iPhone) form factor is the market's answer to that same need and will replace the other, lesser solutions.

The desktop is in no imminent danger, but the netbook market is about to crash, big time. I wouldn't put any great stock in laptops being that popular for many more years either.

"deprecated?" Oh come on. When and where have you read or heard Apple criticizing or disapproving OSX? Perhaps it appears that Apple is publicly ignoring OSX but certainly not deprecating it.

I don't think Jobs is saying that this first version of the iPad will effectively do enough to replace a laptop or desktop. Also his truck vs. car comparison is a little off in that most of us can afford to own more than one computing device whereas with a vehicle, a lot of us can't afford more than one. It makes sense, though, in terms of how a car became a logical replacement for trucks when a lot of people realized they were not going to use their vehicle for anything other than to travel from Point A to Point B. Such a vehicle didn't need the additional utility offered by a truck.

In order for an iPad to become my only computer, it would have to become a heck of a lot more powerful, have way more RAM etc. On the other hand, five years from now, considering how technology keeps improving, who knows.

It's just really harrowing to me that people are so damn clingy.

To such silly things, none the less. They grow attached to elements of their user interface, and because they are so enamored with what currently exists, they become completely closed off the the amazing innovations that paint the future as beautifully compelling. People easily become jaded to the POINT; the big picture.

They grow attached, then flip out because they feel threatened by needing to learn or trust something new, without even stopping to think about the cost-benefit analysis and the incredible amount of research collectively conducted by the same intelligent, patient, and creative minds that brought you the devices that are currently at the center of their digital lives.

Nobody is trying to prevent anybody from creating content. Without it, there is no consumption.

Most people aren't content creators. And even those of us who are content creators are content consumers most of the time. Content consumers can publish small snippets of information, hence sites like Facebook and Twitter.

However, you may as well get used to the fact that tablet devices are more about content consumption than creation. That seems to be the market analysis behind this, and I think it's right.

Maybe detractors are right that so much content uses Flash (as unfortunate as that is), but wrong when they compare the iPad to a content creation system.

Thus what defines the tablet factor is 90% content consumption and being able to input small amounts of data with iWork, and small communications with email, etc.

The iPad is a "halo" device designed to get the netbook and $600 Win 7 laptop crowd into a Apple Store where they quickly see it's limitations and perhaps be sold on buying a Mac.

Apple, starting with the MacBook Air, introducing the iPad and nearly eliminating the MacBook, is slowly committing business suicide by scaling down their products features and versatility.

Computers are like toolboxes, the more tools it carries the more it appeals to more people.

Try selling a toolbox with one or two tools and see how many people buy it in favor of one with 120 tools.

Try selling a toolbox to someone who only wants a screwdriver.

Here's Ballmer's take on all this :


I think they may be mistaken that he was joking, though.

For me there is one thing that prevents the ipad from being a take-anywhere casual use laptop, storage space. It would be great if it supported an external hard drive because I have way too many photos and movies to fit on the ipad.