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post #121 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by Postulant View Post

I had not looked at it that way until now. Apple is in third with a single phone. That's pretty damn amazing.

I'm now wondering how many different phones are running Android right now. And how can this single device by Apple trump them all?

Am I correct, or do I have it wrong?

Well this is really the kicker.

What happened to that "superphone" of Google's? The two phones that were supposed to spank the iPhone were the Droid and the Nexus One. And . . . nada. Nothing. Just a lot of bullet lists of "features" and marketing bluster. And now there's yet another one, the EVO-something or other, that will again be in the iPhone's shadow.

Fact is, no one, but NO ONE, is able to achieve the synergy - that elusive and rare sweet-spot between hardware and software - that Apple can. Why? Because Apple approaches tech at large from an entirely different angle. The kind of thinking that goes on in Cupertino is completely different and of a whole magnitude more focused on specific goals and principles than what goes on anywhere else. Hence, the iPad. No one dared to pull off such a move - and succeed - but Apple.

It isn't about the best camera.

It isn't about the fastest processor.

It isn't about the brightest screen.

It isn't about any one, single "feature."
post #122 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by franksmith22 View Post

Haha, you are so right Stevie. It's obvious that solipsism never took any kind of statistics course in his/her life. He/she can now stop with the heavy handed criticism.

I'll put my degrees and value up against yours any day if you think that growing from 1 unit in a quarter to 10k units the next quarter, for example, is more important than looking at the growth of a market as a whole and how everyone grew or shrank within that market to determine trends.
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post #123 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I'll put my degrees and value up against yours any day if you think that growing from 1 unit in a quarter to 10k units the next quarter, for example, is more important than looking at the growth of a market as a whole and how everyone grew or shrank within that market to determine trends.

Well obviously my biostatistics/epi course from medical school was better than what they taught at your place.

There are multiple avenues for analysis, you didn't need to add the 12 yr old part. That's all. Someone with all those advanced degrees should appreciate those nuances.
post #124 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by franksmith22 View Post

Well obviously my biostatistics/epi course from medical school was better than what they taught at your place.

I'll stick with the highly profitable and logical use of looking at the entire market to make my financial decisions. If you think looking at stats with blinders on is a road to understanding then you may want to ask for your education fees back. Next time, choose an accredited school, if there is one that will accept you.

Quote:
There are multiple avenues for analysis, you didn't need to add the 12 yr old part. That's all.

I did, because it's true. The metric he used is only valid within that company to show growth and has no barring with the market as a whole when stated as a percentage. He does this every time there is a post about the market and every time he discounts Apple or anyone's else gains. That's all.
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post #125 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by franksmith22 View Post

Well obviously my biostatistics/epi course from medical school was better than what they taught at your place.

There are multiple avenues for analysis, you didn't need to add the 12 yr old part. That's all.

I channel Nicola Tesla every night.

Beat that.
post #126 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by iCarbon View Post

Actually, that's good for android, 7% of 28 is more than 14% of 9.

over time, it means that the iPhone will have double the market share of android (ignoring all other factors), but that would be a significant erosion compared to the current ratio.

No. They both had equivalent sample sizes.

If each one has 1,000 interviewed users of both the iPhone and the Android your theory of course falls on it's face.

No survey asks the 80 Million phone users of x,y or z.

They have the same sample size.

Twice as many Android users sampled want to switch to the iPhone.

That is important for Apple and Google.
post #127 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I'll stick with the highly profitable and logical use of looking at the entire market to make my financial decisions. If you think looking at stats with blinders on is a road to understanding then you may want to ask for your education fees back. Next time, choose an accredited school, if there is one that will accept you.


I did, because it's true. The metric he used is only valid within that company to show growth and has no barring with the market as a whole when stated as a percentage. He does this every time there is a post about the market and every time he discounts Apple or anyone's else gains. That's all.

Wow, I've never seen an "educated" person make so many off based assumptions about someone in one paragraph. What a waste.

Just to correct you, I'm not paying for school and it's a US MD program (not DO not Mexico). I got better things to do than troll, peace out.
post #128 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by bartfat View Post

I thought so too.

Android will, but it will be a pyrrhic victory. Android is destined to be the default OS on cheap phones, a market segment unlikely to even care if it has Android or not. For these people, they will be happy with a dial tone and probably the ability to text and little more.

Wonder how many Android users even notice it's even running Android?
post #129 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

Wasn't Android supposed to leave iPhone in the dust?

In the gold dust.

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post #130 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by SockRolid View Post

In the gold dust.

Whaa?

post #131 of 265
Is there a secret to keeping interesting and informative discussions from descending into pissing contests? Just asking.\
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post #132 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

Is that like the N95 (and others), "blowing away" the original iPhone 3 years ago?

With it's 5 megapixel camera, Carl Zeiss lens... etc, etc.

I have never used the Nokia N95 or for that matter even seen one. So unlike alot of members here I can't speak about products I haven't used. However Solip also used the EVO for a bit and I would believe he would agree the 8 megapixel camera on the EVO is fairly impressive. As is the 1.3 webcam.

If you ever have a chance to use the Evo you would be hard pressed to find alot wrong with it.

My comments about the Evo isn't to take anything away from the iPhone I already stated in this thread the number are impressive and the iPhone is a great phone. What I was saying is based on the Android phones I have tested this buy far is the best and in my opinion the hardware is far better then the current iPhone. I also stated that could very well change next week.
post #133 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by patrickwalker View Post

Android will, but it will be a pyrrhic victory. Android is destined to be the default OS on cheap phones, a market segment unlikely to even care if it has Android or not. For these people, they will be happy with a dial tone and probably the ability to text and little more.

Wonder how many Android users even notice it's even running Android?

Well said. Android: the Windows of the mobile OS world.
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post #134 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalTroll View Post

And in this case likely to change.

Right now they're excited about the form factor of the iPad, and today it's the only game in town in that regard. But by the end of summer there will be plenty of option available, and all devices but Apple's will be able to run many of the types of specialized apps those markets need because Apple is the only company in history to prohibit the proven cost-effectiveness of using cross-platform frameworks.

It's not the OS. They all have accelerometers, GPS, multitouch, etc., and most of them will have multi-tasking while Apple offers only what amounts to a game of Freeze Tag.

What matters is the apps. Jobs knows this, which is why he's making all these unprecedented moves to try to eliminate iPhone apps from profitably being deployed to any other OS. He has seemingly little confidence that Apple can sufficiently differentiate its product in an increasingly commoditized market, and instead is pushing to limit deployment options for app developers.

But for all his flailing, developers and their VCs will go where they can make the most money relative to investment, and where they don't face unusual risk of losing that investment every time Apple updates their SDK license: within a year we'll begin to see the effects of limiting developers' workflow options on vertical markets like medical, engineering, education, and many others.

In the meantime, those suffering from Stockholm Syndrome won't connect the dots between Apple's demonstrated untrustworthiness as a development partner and the downstream effects that lost trust has on developers. But it's coming just the same.

Gimme a break! Are there *any* profitable apps on other platforms?
post #135 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

Well this is really the kicker.

What happened to that "superphone" of Google's? The two phones that were supposed to spank the iPhone were the Droid and the Nexus One. And . . . nada. Nothing. Just a lot of bullet lists of "features" and marketing bluster. And now there's yet another one, the EVO-something or other, that will again be in the iPhone's shadow.

Fact is, no one, but NO ONE, is able to achieve the synergy - that elusive and rare sweet-spot between hardware and software - that Apple can. Why? Because Apple approaches tech at large from an entirely different angle. The kind of thinking that goes on in Cupertino is completely different and of a whole magnitude more focused on specific goals and principles than what goes on anywhere else. Hence, the iPad. No one dared to pull off such a move - and succeed - but Apple.

It isn't about the best camera.

It isn't about the fastest processor.

It isn't about the brightest screen.

It isn't about any one, single "feature."

Quadra the only spot is the softspot that is directly between your ears. Yet again you have never even touch these phones yet commenting on hardware and software you don't even have a clue about.

Its actually about all of the above. And every pretty much agrees that the Android market will pass the iPhone.

For you its all about fanboyism, about being #1 or having the #1 product.
post #136 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

However Solip also used the EVO for a bit and I would believe he would agree the 8 megapixel camera on the EVO is fairly impressive. As is the 1.3 webcam.

The stated specs are impressive, but as previously stated I wasn't able to see how well the images stacked up on a proper display. We all know that megapixels are great for marketing but they are from the only aspect of a camera that makes it a good camera.

For an Android phone, it's the best I've played with, but Android is still lacking in the key aspects that make iPhone and Blackberry owners love their devices. I'm not sure this can change unless a vendor follows suit by making a streamlined ecosystem for their HW that just happens to be based on Android.
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post #137 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

Well this is really the kicker.

What happened to that "superphone" of Google's? The two phones that were supposed to spank the iPhone were the Droid and the Nexus One. And . . . nada. Nothing. Just a lot of bullet lists of "features" and marketing bluster. And now there's yet another one, the EVO-something or other, that will again be in the iPhone's shadow.

Fact is, no one, but NO ONE, is able to achieve the synergy - that elusive and rare sweet-spot between hardware and software - that Apple can. Why? Because Apple approaches tech at large from an entirely different angle. The kind of thinking that goes on in Cupertino is completely different and of a whole magnitude more focused on specific goals and principles than what goes on anywhere else. Hence,

It isn't about any one, single "feature."

So, is android becoming to the phone industry what Windows is to the PC world? You have hardware and software developed in two different locations, resulting in a subpar user experience. Like with PCs, I've noticed that many competitors are trying to compete with the iPhone by highlighting their faster processors, larger screens, and cheaper prices(2 for 1 deals), but have failed to realize that the OS is actually the differentiator, not the hardware. I saw a test performed on Gizmodo(I think) where two recent Android phones were matched against last years iPhone, and despite having faster processors and more RAM, both phones either matched or performed slightly worse the iPhone - negating the "superior specs". I've also seen tests where other phones have had higher MP cameras yet their pictures still paled in comparison to the iPhone's.

Am I spot on or clueless?
post #138 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

The stated specs are impressive, but as previously stated I wasn't able to see how well the images stacked up on a proper display. We all know that megapixels are great for marketing but they are from the only aspect of a camera that makes it a good camera.

For an Android phone, it's the best I've played with, but Android is still lacking in the key aspects that make iPhone and Blackberry owners love their devices. I'm not sure this can change unless a vendor follows suit by making a streamlined ecosystem for their HW that just happens to be based on Android.

With the iPhone I would agree with your comment about loving their devices. But I see and know alot of BB owners that are dumping the BB for the more consumer geared Android phones.

Or for that matter dumping the BB for an iPhone. I think that is why RIM tried the Storm and is still trying to get it right because they need a more consumer geared phone.

As far as the Android phones have you ever tried the Nexus One that is the only one I have never tried. Dont' know anyone that works for Tmobile...lol
post #139 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by Postulant View Post

So, is android becoming to the phone industry what Windows is to the PC world? You have hardware and software developed in two different locations, resulting in a subpar user experience. Like with PCs, I've noticed that many competitors are trying to compete with the iPhone by highlighting their faster processors, larger screens, and cheaper prices(2 for 1 deals), but have failed to realize that the OS is actually the differentiator, not the hardware. I saw a test performed on Gizmodo(I think) where two recent Android phones were matched against last years iPhone, and despite have faster processors and more RAM, both phones either matched or performed slightly worse the iPhone - negating the "superior specs". I've also seen tests where other phones have had higher MP cameras yet their pictures still paled in comparison to the iPhone's.

Am I spot on or clueless?

You've more or less got the game figured out.

Well done.
post #140 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by Postulant View Post

So, is android becoming to the phone industry what Windows is to the PC world? You have hardware and software developed in two different locations, resulting in a subpar user experience. Like with PCs, I've noticed that many competitors are trying to compete with the iPhone by highlighting their faster processors, larger screens, and cheaper prices(2 for 1 deals), but have failed to realize that the OS is actually the differentiator, not the hardware. I saw a test performed on Gizmodo(I think) where two recent Android phones were matched against last years iPhone, and despite have faster processors and more RAM, both phones either matched or performed slightly worse the iPhone - negating the "superior specs". I've also seen tests where other phones have had higher MP cameras yet their pictures still paled in comparison to the iPhone's.

Am I spot on or clueless?

Lets remember the iPhone is going on its 4th Gen. Many of the Android phones are first generation phones. So many of them are going to fall short.

The user experience with many of these Android phones is very good considering they are first generation phones and a second gen OS. A few years from now it could be a totally different ball games when it comes to Android.
post #141 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

Lets remember the iPhone is going on its 4th Gen. Many of the Android phones are first generation phones. So many of them are going to fall short.

Google's had nearly four generations of iPhones to look at and play with. When do they plan to bring their platform out of beta? Hell, Schmidt was THERE for nearly the entire time.

Know why they *really* fall short?

Different (and wrong) priorities.
post #142 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by patrickwalker View Post

Wonder how many Android users even notice it's even running Android?

Yup. On one hand, Android has ended up being the OS of choice for geeks who need to prove to themselves that they're smarter than your average iPhone buyer. By out-geeking them. As if anybody else actually gave a crap. (I suppose it's better for their mental health than playing video games all day.)

On the other hand, Android has also become the OS of choice for people who simply don't know any better or are locked in to Verizon or another non-AT&T carrier. "Wow, 2-for-1? Sign me up!" People who don't know any better (or just don't care) are evidently lured in by low price.

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post #143 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

Whaa?


OMG. OK, bad metaphor...

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post #144 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post


And every pretty much agrees that the Android market will pass the iPhone.

Of course Android will pass the iPhone's OS as it is only installed on a single phone. My question is, will any one of the many devices running Android ever have the kind of success enjoyed by the iPhone?
post #145 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

Lets remember the iPhone is going on its 4th Gen. Many of the Android phones are first generation phones. So many of them are going to fall short.

The user experience with many of these Android phones is very good considering they are first generation phones and a second gen OS. A few years from now it could be a totally different ball games when it comes to Android.

Android has had years to be developed. It was openly bought by Google in 2005(?) and we was well known before the iPhone was ever officially announced. The fact that Google had to make a switch from copying BB OS to copy iPhone OS is inconsequential as they released the first Android phone the next year, not long after the first 3G iPhone.

On the HW front, these vendors have had years to play around with the Android OS and have been building phones long before Apple entered the market.

I'm surprised that Apple has been able to increase its lead so much against these well worn handset vendors and Android. I figured that Android on phones would have out sold the iPhone by now. To me this shows Apple is much smart company than I gave them credit for and/or these other vendors are more incompetent than I thought.
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post #146 of 265
This isn't quite as rosy as iPhone fans would like it to be. Keep in mind that the iPhone has been out for three years now, whereas Android phones have only been generally available for a little over 6 months. For Android to pick up that much market share in such a short time is phenomenal. And its growth rate certainly exceeds that of the iPhone. iPhone sales have slowed, while Android's continue to improve.

Long story short, there are a lot of iPhones out there, but if current trends continue, Android phones will not just outsell, but outnumber iPhones before we know it.
post #147 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by djdj View Post

This isn't quite as rosy as iPhone fans would like it to be. Keep in mind that the iPhone has been out for three years now, whereas Android phones have only been generally available for a little over 6 months. For Android to pick up that much market share in such a short time is phenomenal. And its growth rate certainly exceeds that of the iPhone. iPhone sales have slowed, while Android's continue to improve.

Long story short, there are a lot of iPhones out there, but if current trends continue, Android phones will not just outsell, but outnumber iPhones before we know it.

Refer to post #144.
post #148 of 265
All the talk about which features make which phone the one most likely to succeed is just a pissing contest.

The market is shaped by what the retailers can get out of it. For example, even though the iPhone is a clear leader in the market at the moment (ignoring BB, just iPhone vs Android), the major Telcos's in Australia will put 15 android or non iPhone other phones on the front page of their sales brochures, not the iPhone.

Why? Because they no doubt make more profit from flogging off the cheap competition than selling the iPhone. Telcos usually sell all phones for a premium no matter how cheap the manufacturer churns them out for.

If you think the vast majority of consumers that buy phones do so because of technical features you are as dilusional as those that thought the iPad would tank, and those that are holding their breath until 2012. (How ironic, Android will finally overtake iPhone the year the world ends) (no, I don't subscribe to that theory, just a but of fun)
post #149 of 265
Yes, but Android has just begun. Looks like Apple in in for some competition.
post #150 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

Lets remember the iPhone is going on its 4th Gen. Many of the Android phones are first generation phones. So many of them are going to fall short.

I take your point. But this is also true: While many of those phones ARE first generation, they were not developed in a vacuum, but in the context of wide variety of competing hardware. To a degree, iPhone can only improve itself over its own last model, while the Android competition can use the strengths and weaknesses of many iterations of Android driven hardware on which to base their improvements. So the generational playing field is more level than it might appear.
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post #151 of 265
Lets also add this to the mix:
Android isn't even a company but a free OS that is piggybacking onto an already existing cell phone business.
The so called Android Phone is nothing but a coalition of COMPETING cell phone makers pimping the OS.
post #152 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robin Huber View Post

I take your point. But this is also true: While many of those phones ARE first generation, they were not developed in a vacuum, but in the context of wide variety of competing hardware. To a degree, iPhone can only improve itself over its own last model, while the Android competition can use the strengths and weaknesses of many iterations of Android driven hardware on which to base their improvements. So the generational playing field is more level than it might appear.

Yes, so the generation of any Android phone is more correctly calculated as the number of all Android phones from all manufacturers produced before it, especially since they all end up sharing technology through Google, and are all copying each other as well as the iPhone.
post #153 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Android has had years to be developed. It was openly bought by Google in 2005(?) and we was well known before the iPhone was ever officially announced. The fact that Google had to make a switch from copying BB OS to copy iPhone OS is inconsequential as they released the first Android phone the next year, not long after the first 3G iPhone.

On the HW front, these vendors have had years to play around with the Android OS and have been building phones long before Apple entered the market.

I'm surprised that Apple has been able to increase its lead so much against these well worn handset vendors and Android. I figured that Android on phones would have out sold the iPhone by now. To me this shows Apple is much smart company than I gave them credit for and/or these other vendors are more incompetent than I thought.

Well it wasn't until Apple starting making hugh leaps that the cell phone industry woke up. I am not sure it was incompetent more then no real competition. How bad is it that the Razr was the best selling phone around and everyone one earth seemed to want one. I mean what a joke. Blackberry was really the smartphone to have and the smartphone market was pretty dead except for business.

Before the iPhone how many consumers actually had data plans, not many that I knew. Most of the data plans were for business users.

The Android market had no real effort put into it until recently. Which again goes to show that the best way to breed innovation is competition. Not to mention everyone saw how fat Apple wallet was getting off this cash cow.
post #154 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by franksmith22 View Post

Well obviously my biostatistics/epi course from medical school was better than what they taught at your place.

I think the salient point is that application of statistics is not an exact science. It takes knowledge of the problem domain and an understanding of the data, as well as the mathematics of statistics to know what tests to apply. It's possible to "show" significant results by applying statistical tests incorrectly -- i.e., not only are the results not significant, but the entire misapplied analysis is in fact meaningless. You should consider the possibility that the statistical methods and tests you learned in bio-statistics and epidemiology classes may be wholly inappropriate to economic and market issues. It sounds like you are more hubris than thoughtful analysis, and I can't say you've demonstrated any deep knowledge of either the problem domain or statistics.
post #155 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robin Huber View Post

I take your point. But this is also true: While many of those phones ARE first generation, they were not developed in a vacuum, but in the context of wide variety of competing hardware. To a degree, iPhone can only improve itself over its own last model, while the Android competition can use the strengths and weaknesses of many iterations of Android driven hardware on which to base their improvements. So the generational playing field is more level than it might appear.

I don't disagree. The reality is Apple and the iPhone kick started the entire smartphone market. Of course there as the BB before the iPhone but the smartphone industry was a very boring to a degree stale industry.
post #156 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robin Huber View Post

Well said. Android: the Windows of the mobile OS world.


So do you think it will eventually be on 90+% of the mobile phones out there?
post #157 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

Well it wasn't until Apple starting making hugh leaps that the cell phone industry woke up. I am not sure it was incompetent more then no real competition. How bad is it that the Razr was the best selling phone around and everyone one earth seemed to want one. I mean what a joke. Blackberry was really the smartphone to have and the smartphone market was pretty dead except for business.

The thing about the Razr is that it was the best solution to a completely different problem: the problem of how to make a phone as small as possible, without making it too small (what was that tiny little phone Ericsson (I think) used to make, so small you could barely hold it?), and get decent phone performance out of it. As such, it was an extremely good phone. But it was a solution to a completely different problem.

Quote:
Before the iPhone how many consumers actually had data plans, not many that I knew. Most of the data plans were for business users.

The Android market had no real effort put into it until recently. Which again goes to show that the best way to breed innovation is competition. Not to mention everyone saw how fat Apple wallet was getting off this cash cow.

Actually, I think your last sentence nails it. Competition isn't breeding innovation here. What's breeding it is one company producing a vastly superior product and then a bunch of companies are copying it trying to catch up and cash in on its success. I think the ability of competition, as a force in isolation, to produce innovation, is highly overrated and that it's an idea more strongly grounded in ideology and "the common wisdom" than in empirical evidence.


Edit: In fact, I would say that Android and Android phones represent no, or at most very little, innovation at all. The competition from Android represents a tacking on and refinement of features to the innovation that was the iPhone. It may result in better phones (better than preceding phones) but to call it innovation is to trivialize what innovation really is.
post #158 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stevie View Post

So do you think it will eventually be on 90+% of the mobile phones out there?

Playing coy now, are we?
post #159 of 265
While I enjoy some of Apple's products, I'm leaving the iPhone behind. As an original iPhone owner, I've enjoyed the phone for the last 3 years and will be the first to say that it revolutionized the mobile industry. However, I'm not to happy with Apple's business strategies lately. Their walled garden, big brother attitude. I had to jail-break my phone just so I could access the file system and load the software that I want to load on it. It kind of sucks that Apple takes the attitude of telling it's users what they can load on the phones they bought. And more importantly, controlling hard working developers such as myself.

I've recently ordered a HTC Incredible from Verizon, which in NYC will allow me to actually make phone calls.

The way that Android integrates social media into its OS better get Apple's attention. It certainly kills the iPhone in that respect.
post #160 of 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

The stated specs are impressive, but as previously stated I wasn't able to see how well the images stacked up on a proper display.


I heard in another thread that 5 out of 5 people cannot even figure out how to take a picture with a Android phone. I think I heard from you that there is no camera app installed with the OS.

Is there anything to that stuff?
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