Apple's iPhone market share three times greater than Android in US - Page 3

Now you aren't even standing behind your own statements.

In the survey, did anybody take into account the buy 1, get one free effect on numbers. I think if AT&T ran a promotion like this, you would see vastly different numbers.

Welcome to the forum.

That goes along with the profit the vendors will make, but per unit sales stand on their own regardless if a phone is free with contract or $1000.

One thing I'd like to see is a clearer definition of 'smartphone'. I have a hard time seeing S60 as a smartphone OS in 2010 and the iPhone reportedly has a 72% marketshare in Japan though their numbers pale in comparison to the feature phones most common to that country.

Exaggeration is never a replacement for the truth.

The link you thoughtfully provided is talking iPad apps only, not total App Store apps. So to try and use a combination of the two to create a post that you like makes me wonder:...if you're incompetent and didn't notice that ... or a liar and chose to ignore that, as it didn't support your post ... I'll leave it up for others to decide.

I will, however, say one thing in you're favor ... your honest enough to use the word troll in your name ... but I would question your use of the word rational.

And in this case likely to change.

Right now they're excited about the form factor of the iPad, and today it's the only game in town in that regard. But by the end of summer there will be plenty of option available, and all devices but Apple's will be able to run many of the types of specialized apps those markets need because Apple is the only company in history to prohibit the proven cost-effectiveness of using cross-platform frameworks.

It's not the OS. They all have accelerometers, GPS, multitouch, etc., and most of them will have multi-tasking while Apple offers only what amounts to a game of Freeze Tag.

What matters is the apps. Jobs knows this, which is why he's making all these unprecedented moves to try to eliminate iPhone apps from profitably being deployed to any other OS. He has seemingly little confidence that Apple can sufficiently differentiate its product in an increasingly commoditized market, and instead is pushing to limit deployment options for app developers.

But for all his flailing, developers and their VCs will go where they can make the most money relative to investment, and where they don't face unusual risk of losing that investment every time Apple updates their SDK license: within a year we'll begin to see the effects of limiting developers' workflow options on vertical markets like medical, engineering, education, and many others.

In the meantime, those suffering from Stockholm Syndrome won't connect the dots between Apple's demonstrated untrustworthiness as a development partner and the downstream effects that lost trust has on developers. But it's coming just the same.

The amazing thinh snout surveys, especially if it is so transient, is that you can expect all sorts of results. This is more true if you have not really gotten a chance to actually see the questions, the sampling methodology (and assumptions), and the actual raw data.

This is more true with with surveys involving politics.

Spin of results

A RIM fanboy can also spin the results as follows:

RIM phones beat Android by almost fourfold, Windows Mobile by almost two-fold and way ahead of the iPhone.

Is it just possible that even a "rating agency" is capitalizing on the simple rivalry between the "passionate" fanbois of the iPhone and the Androids to boost readership in its own site?

Margin of Error

A rise and fall of 2%? What is the margin of error? Then, it goes back to the sampling and the nature of the survey again. Only a few weeks ago, one survey showed that the iPhone was ahead of Motorola, then another indicated the reverse. Hmmmm! Which to believe? Or, is it just the margin of error in the sampling of the population, or the data source?

Just before the last election, there were tracking surveys by Fox News that showed the McCain-Palin ticket ahead of the Obama ticket. In November 3, 1948 some papers headlined:

"Dewey defeats Truman"

based on their trusted national polling of voters.


CGC

Edit: title should be "Spin"

Actually, that wasn't a sales report. It was a self-selecting survey with no indication that it had any validity.


Wow. So from your analysis, we can conclude that in Q1 2011, iPhone will have 26% market share and Android will have 78% market share. That means that everyone else put together has -4% market share. Right?

Why don't you look at the growth rate at comparable points after their introduction? Go back to when Apple had 1.6% market share. What was their growth?

Alternatively, you could look at the Nielsen numbers and compare how much of the available market each company captured. Apple captured 2% of the non-iPhone market (74% in the previous period. Android also captured 2% of the non-Android market, but that was a larger potential market (93%).

Or, you could look at it and see that Apple's huge growth rate continued for a long time while Android's appears to be slowing down (they only gained 2% in Nielsen's data).

But none of that would fit your Apple-hating agenda.


Yet, for comparison, Android 1.5 or 1.6 is still the most popular version - long after 2.0 and 2.1 came out. In fact, reports are that the overwhelming majority of Android users NEVER upgrade their OS - because the upgrades just plain aren't available.

You're confusing Google's release of an Android upgrade with a carrier releasing a version that real users can install.

I will question your use of the words "you're" and "your." You got them both wrong. In each of the first two cases you should have used the other. Learning how to spell enhances the credibility of your communications.

ROTFLMAO. So 'RationalTroll' is a blatant liar. No surprise there.

First, that survey covers only iPad apps, not the full 200,000 apps in the store. As of today, there are about 5,000 iPad apps, not 200,000. The top 10 iPad apps were each bringing in over $10,000 PER DAY.

Second, that report was dated April 9 - less than a week after the iPad came out. IPad sales today are at least 4 times the number sold by April 9 - and growing daily.

Third, your 'make more money flipping burgers' line is totally bogus - unless you know how many hours each developer is putting in. The top hundred are earning $800 per day - or over a quarter million dollars per year. Seems like quite a bit more than someone would make flipping burgers - especially since few of these developers are working full time. One of the top developers claimed that he spent about 2 weeks - and will gross close to a million dollars this year. How many Android developers can make that claim?

Finally, where are the comparable numbers for Android apps? How do you expect to prove something from showing only iPad revenues without giving the comparison? Show us the revenues from Android app sales. Heck, weren't you one of the ones complaining that Apple was monopolizing the market because 96% of mobile App revenue went through Apple? How much money are all those Android app developers making?

This is about the iPhone OS, not just iPhones. This would include the iPod touch. Either way, still a larger market share.

No I understand that fact but that doesn't mean as Android grows and becomes more widely used that won't change. Remember Android based Phones are just now becoming popular. The more the demand for the phones and the software the updates will have to become more regular or Android will never truly gain ground.

Putting aside the Nexus One, if HTC continues to dominate with the best Android phones then they will simply become the hardware supplier of choice.

Not saying that the fragmentation doesn't have to end because that is a major factor.

Again with the personal attacks. And nitpicking screen names from a person who chose "solipsism"? Almost interesting.

Yes, the link I provided was to an article very clearly titled as being about iPad apps.

Yet not surprisingly the steeply L-shaped curve of overall App Stores sales apparently applies across the board:

http://www.tuaw.com/2010/04/21/estim...ng-372k-a-day/

http://www.cultofmac.com/developers-...e-number/15250

http://taptaptap.com/blog/final-numbers-for-july/

http://www.newsweek.com/2009/10/05/s...-for-that.html

All discussion on this I can find shows that the top 100 apps are indeed doing very well, but below that the chasm drops precipitously, and the other 299,900 apps are pulling in revenues that range from less than the average Mac desktop developer to below minimum wage.

If you can find stats showing the 50th percentile making above minimum wage I'd love to see 'em.

Which statements won't I stand behind? This is starting to get bizarre.

Ha ha ... I know what you mean, altho' with me it's not Quadra but two others, that shall remain nameless.

Perhaps 'dumbing down" is not the proper expression ... I just mean that by having an OS that tries to be on everyone else's device, then, by design, at some point, it has to work on the "bottom feeders" ... not sure I've made that any clearer but, hey, work with me on this. lol

I think that's a by product of making money in spite of yourself ... the necessity to innovate and change just isn't there until it's almost too late ... witness the shakeup of MSFT's mobile staff, with Ballmer taking over ... didn't he say not so long ago .... "I like our strategy, I like it a lot".


Totally agree.

I think the marketplace is going to decide that issue one way or the other relatively soon ... 2-3 years is my guess.

"a bigger market share" than what?

RIM's OS? Symbian?

Are you sure about that?

Not at all, for the good reasons you noted.

Instead, Gartner supports Solipsism's estimate that "I expect Android to be much larger marketshare than iPhone after it matures" by accounting for the factors you described to come up with these projected figures for 2012:


http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...e_by_2012.html

Statistics. Or more pointedly.. A statistic. It's like the English language. Try and figure out what it is really saying.

Frankly, there have been some great points, and some wildly narrow minded points, but slightly off topic although relevant in many ways, in my opinion, is what Steve Jobs said in his D8 interview when asked to comment about the fact that Apple now has as big a market capitalization as Microsoft.

He said, and I'm sure I don't have the exact words: "That doesn't matter."

So, what I'm alluding to, and has been pointed out by at least a couple of people here, is that Apple really doesn't care about having the biggest market share in any region, just as its CEO doesn't care about having the largest market capitalization.

He, and I believe, that if you keep making great products, the rest will take care of itself. (I believe he said something to that effect recently too.)

Apple doesn't need market share, based upon any piece of statistic, to be great, hugely profitable, and sustainable.

Greg


P.S. I am an Apple enthusiast but am glad that there are some good options out there.

The antitrust enforcers are now checking things out to see if Apple may have fallen off the wagon. There are allegations that they are using unfair tactics to stifle competition, rather than doing what you identify.

Great! ... So take a hike for a year and then come back and say you told me so ... if you can.

That's one of the most balanced comments on the subject ever written in these forums.

Most comments on Jobs vs. Flash tend toward extremes, in which Flash is either presented as the Savior of the Web or the Satan of All Things. It is, of course, neither.

But what Flash is is a way to deliver interactive and video content across an overwhelming majority (compatible with 90+%?) of the browsers in use today.

HTML5 will be very valuable for a great many reasons, but as Apple made unquestionably clear with the demo they rolled out last week it will only run on a slender percentage of browsers people are actually using.

Your suggestion of a transitional phase of 2-3 years is spot-on IMO, a balanced view between the desire for HTML5 which is not yet implemented in browsers, and the simple business sense of not retooling an entire web site just to make Safari look good.

I doubt that will happen, both for the reasons Reich argued for and the more basic one that antitrust rules have never been previously applied to any company which doesn't control at least 40% of the market. Apple said three weeks ago that they currently have only 16.1% of the mobile market.

It depends on which market you are looking at. My recollection is that they are looking into the music download market and the market for mobile device software.

Well said. I think Apple has clearly demonstrated the benefits for their shareholders of their "boutique" approach. Even some of the more ardent Apple fans here suggest Apple won't be the leader in the mobile market forever, and I would agree that falling back to a #3 slot won't prevent them from continuing to enjoy some of the highest margins in the industry.

As long as Steve Jobs is alive Apple will make good money, and as long as Jonathan Ive stays with the company they'll keep turning out good products, even long after Steve is gone.

As a shareholder, I like that. And as a developer, I share your appreciation that we have lots of other great options as well.

It would appear that I, indeed, screwed up. Bad proof reading on my part ... guess I need more coffee. The correction, on your part was very helpful, ... the sarcasm ... not so much.

Interesting. I hadn't considered those niches, but there may be some applicability there.

A stronger case than antitrust can be made for "restraint of trade" with regard to dictating developer tools.

But even then, as Reich argued I'm not in favor of seeing a federal action against Apple while so many crooked bankers are still walking free. Much bigger fish to fry.

It would be far more interesting to see a class action suit against Apple from all the developers affected by their restraint-of-trade practices. I'd wager such a case is being discussed as I write this in some circles. I'd also wager a quiet bounty has been offered for the Apple employee willing to disclose the alleged email that had the SDK team sit on the release of v4 until two business days before Adobe's big CS5 splash. Such an email will be worth many times whatever bounty is paid for it.

The thing to remember, though, is that networks have been throwing Android devices at people -- two for the price of one -- and I wonder how many people in this survey only got an Android device because of this offer.

One hundred and fifty carriers across ninety countries doesn't seem too limited.

There's a whole world out there where the iPhone is doing quite well and most of those users couldn't care less what's in the SDK.

[QUOTE=RationalTroll;1646904]Again with the personal attacks. And nitpicking screen names from a person who chose "solipsism"? Almost interesting.
/QUOTE]

You've replied to "newbee" but quote "solipism"? I see the trend, for you, continues.

I'm surprised Microsoft still has such a large chunk.

Google and their partners have yet to make one phone that will out-sell Apple's one or at most two models of the iPhone. They haven't managed that so far, which speaks volumes about the strength of Apple's position.

[QUOTE=newbee;1646934]
Indeed I made a mistake with the user names. My apology. Thanks for catching that.

Gartner . . . Gartner . . . Oh, THAT Gartner:

Headline 2008: "Gartner denounces iPhone (again) and doubts the impact of Google Android"

http://blogs.techrepublic.com.com/hiner/?p=605 (plus hundreds of others)

Yeah, they have a terrifically accurate analytic forecasting record. Not to mention biased (at least until the iPhone became an unqualified success). So they know what 2012 is going to be like? We'll see.

As I've stated many times before, this is the #1 reason why Apple needs to get out a Verizon iPhone, even if it's a CDMA-only version. If these stats hold, every 100 Android phones sold isn't a loss of 100 iPhone sales. It's 100 lost sales now, 70 lost sales 2 years from now when people upgrade, another 50 lost sales 2 years after that, etc, etc.

The relatively small cost of creating a Verizon iPhone outweighs those lost sales.

Oh no, here we go with the Nazi analogies . . . what? . . . oh, THAT Reich.

Is that like the N95 (and others), "blowing away" the original iPhone 3 years ago?

With it's 5 megapixel camera, Carl Zeiss lens... etc, etc.

To make any kind of anti-trust case you would have to take the case against an actual monopoly. Although I am going to make the point that they may be, soon.

A few points to make here. Android's growth - largely and only in the US - has been led by anti-Apple geeks, about 2% of the entire phone market, and people who got stuff for free on Verizons pans, and people who dont know anything about phones.

About 35% of Android phones use 1.5, and - heres the rub - 2.2 needs about 256 M of RAM. That will be a high end phone. Mass market Android phones cant afford the RAM necessary for 2.2. Menwhile OS 4.0 can run on the 3G and 3GS.

I dont hink Apple wanted to become the dominent force in the smart phone world, but I think they may now - to win against Goggle and to prove that the vertical model can win. I think it can, and I think it should.

If, at the WWDC, Apple announces that it is not discontinuing the 3GS but reducing it's price and keeping the margin on the 4G instead. A recent Guardian article suggested that the iPhone will come in three sizes, the 3GS with 8 or 16G ( HD) and the 4G with 64G. Clear blue water to encourage high-spenders to keep on the 4G. That is the same as the iPod mini which, if you know your history, really gave the MP3 market to Apple..

Then, of course, the iPod touch will also get some sort of high end and (cheap) low end touch, and all will run OS 4.0. The number of phones ( or devices) running iPhone OS 4.0 will dwarf 2.2

Then Apple move to Verizon with their cheap iPhones. They can lock down this market in the US within a few years.

I had not looked at it that way until now. Apple is in third with a single phone. That's pretty damn amazing.

I'm now wondering how many different phones are running Android right now. And how can this single device by Apple trump them all?

Am I correct, or do I have it wrong?

You come too short. They have 28% with one phone, and on one carrier. Once they rectify that they will become a monopoly.

Yeah, no example of Godwin's Law here, just Robert Reich (a good read, IMO, making some solid arguments against federal action against Apple):
http://robertreich.org/post/57211206...-big-banks-are

Haha, you are so right Stevie. It's obvious that solipsism never took any kind of statistics course in his/her life. He/she can now stop with the heavy handed criticism.