Originally Posted by solipsism
Even if the iPhone has a small percentage of the smartphone market and the iPad has a small percentage of the tablet market I still don't see Flash on those ARM devices as being wildly popular even after it's a default install on all Android, WebOS, WinPh7, Maemo and Symbian devices. The demos I've seen are just not convincing me that it's even near ready for the average user.
I think those system seem to get a lot faster and
Flash need needs to get a lot more efficient before it will even start to break free from the performance and battery life issues that plague it. I have yet to see any evidence of that.
there is plenty of evidence that the new flash player has made major strides, relatively speaking given where -it was-. That's not to say it's solved all of the issues, and it's 'there'. I don't think it is. But if it doesn't work out on android/symbian, flash for mobile is not going to do well.
For flash video, speaking in terms of 'decade' isn't at all accurate. Flash 6 (mx) first got the ability to embed video in swf format. WHile we all jumped on because it was a much asked for feature, it was horrible clunky, and suffered badly from audio sync issues. Flash 7 saw the intro of the flv format, but it still wasn't there. It wasn't until flash 8, where improvements were made that companies began taking notice, and between flash 8 flash 9 when youtube and others emerged. That was maybe 5 years ago. Flash was still before that point, the dominant interactive/app technology on the internet. -before- it had video. There is a huge wealth of flash work out there like I said, that isn't video, ads, -or- games. In fact, I rarely do any of those.
a decade ago, we were at flash 4. Which html5 is trying, to emulate.
as a dev who came to the mac platform before most of my peers, I was committed to os x, and trying to improve things on my platform. WIndows was getting too much favour. I've had my issues with macromedia, I've never loved them as a company. I've never had problems with adobe. But it seems to me, after the merger, the things I disliked about macromedia, seemed picked up by adobe. Maybe it's just me. I've hated the way adobe has ignored the mac platform, and to me, this major kick in the ass, is just what adobe needed. Full on, kick to the junk.
I don't know what will happen in the end, I have my theories having worked in all the technologies mentioned very closely. But I find it tiresome when people make such crazy assumptions so early in the game. Because I really think, it is early in this game.
But in the meantime, apple is kicking ass with some major innovation, though it seems unlike a year ago, some companies are showing signs of catching up, well copying really, which is what happened way back when with windows. Perhaps apple will be lucky enough, to hang on to Steve Jobs a little longer this time round. Ballmer has pretty much ended Microsofts relevance it seems.