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iPhone 4 demand predicted to drive Apple to 9.5M June quarter sales

post #1 of 20
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With record breaking demand for the new iPhone 4 on the first day of preorders, one prominent analyst believes Apple will sell 9.5 million total handsets in the June quarter, while a new breakdown of preorders suggests popularity of the 16GB model.

Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray issued a note to investors on Wednesday, in which he increased his June quarter iPhone sales estimate by 1 million, to 9.5 million. He noted that the June 24 date gives Apple 6 days of sales before the end of the month. Last year, Apple sold over a million of the iPhone 3GS in its first three days.

Munster said he believes all of the 8.4 million iPhone users activated at AT&T between September 2008 and June 2009 are eligible for upgrade pricing, thanks to the wireless carrier's six month window extension for upgrade eligibility pricing. The analyst cited a poll from The Wall Street Journal which indicated that 62 percent of current iPhone owners expect to upgrade to iPhone 4, while another 19 percent said they may upgrade.

"These numbers imply that 5.2 million AT&T (subscribers) could upgrade to iPhone 4," Munster wrote. "Assuming 25% upgrade at launch (June quarter) and the remaining 75% upgrade later, out analysis implies 1.3M iPhone 4 upgrades on AT&T in the June quarter."

Separately, AppleInsider received data on iPhone preorders that suggest most customers at one store -- roughly 55 percent -- opted for the lower capacity 16GB iPhone 4. The remaining 45 percent of tracked preorders were for the 32GB model. Both represented sales of the black device, as Apple is not currently taking preorders for the white iPhone 4.

And reports from German Telekom on Tuesday said that demand for iPhone 4 was 10 times higher than for the iPhone 3GS last year. The carrier said it does not believe it will be able to satisfy all who want to buy an iPhone 4 on the June 24 launch date next week. Similarly, AT&T indicated that Tuesday was its busiest online sales day ever, as the carrier completely sold out of launch day handset preorders.

Both Apple and AT&T had difficulty satisfying demand for iPhone 4 on the first day of preorders, with AT&T's verification system struggling, and Apple's 800 number rejecting calls for a portion of the morning.

Looking past next week's launch, Munster believes Apple will sell another 9.5 million handsets in the September quarter, an estimate up 500,000 from his previous projection. The analyst based his increase on the fact that iPhone 4 will be available in 88 countries by September 2010, compared with just 64 countries for the iPhone 3GS in September 2009.



"The faster pace of the international rollout in the Sept. quarter will likely have a positive impact on sales in the first full quarter of iPhone sales (the quarter with the majority of additional rollouts in international geographies)," Munster wrote. "That said, we are now modeling for iPhone units to be flat sequentially in the Sept-10 quarter, much lower than the 41% (quarter over quarter) growth seen in Sept-09 under similar circumstances with the iPhone 3GS launch (but fewer countries added in the quarter)."

Piper Jaffray has increased its price target for AAPL stock to $348, up from $330. The projection calls for $59.2 billion in revenue in the 2010 fiscal year, with $13.07 earnings per share.
post #2 of 20
They could boast even higher profits if they could figure out how to let us buy their product. OK, just being snide. I actually got my pre-order in just before the meltdown.
post #3 of 20
Android has greater market share than iPhone /ridiculous
post #4 of 20
Anybody else think this seems low? If Apple builds 3MM units per month, and had 4-6 weeks of pre-launch production, I think we are looking at about 11MM units for this quarter and likely another 11MM units for September.

Logic is China and other emerging iphone markets would seem to be less impacted by people holding out, thereby creating growth or stabilization on March numbers, so total sales are just a function of launch availability.
post #5 of 20
I was going to get the 16G model on all 3 phones I'm upgrading but at the last minute changed my mind and got the 32G on 2 of them. I figured that with HD recording capability my wife & I might need it. Daughter will have to get by on 16G.
post #6 of 20
This is a Gene Munster analysis. It really should be on the BackPage Blog, not on the front page.

The guy does not have a good track record as an Apple analyst.
post #7 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by ilogic View Post

Android has greater market share than iPhone /ridiculous

You argument might look impressive, if it was even remotely true, and if there was only a single vendor selling it. You argument is about as useful as saying that Windows dominates the Desktop OS market. If everyone is selling it, it just doesn't mean a whole lot.

iPhone still dominates the mobile market. It has 3 times the market of Android. The only folks Android is feeding on are Microsoft and RIM.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-20006889-37.html
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post #8 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

This is a Gene Munster analysis. It really should be on the BackPage Blog, not on the front page.

The guy does not have a good track record as an Apple analyst.

He's actually been consistently better than other financial analysts regarding Apple (which may not be saying much).
post #9 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by DJRumpy View Post

You argument might look impressive, if it was even remotely true, and if there was only a single vendor selling it. You argument is about as useful as saying that Windows dominates the Desktop OS market. If everyone is selling it, it just doesn't mean a whole lot.

iPhone still dominates the mobile market. It has 3 times the market of Android. The only folks Android is feeding on are Microsoft and RIM.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-20006889-37.html

I think he actually meant the statement was ridiculous...
post #10 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by iStud View Post

I think he actually meant the statement was ridiculous...

I didn't see that statement in the actual article? If that was his/her intent, then point taken.
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post #11 of 20
Good thing the white iPhone isn't available yet. Imagine how many more people would have been pre-ordering?
post #12 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

With record breaking demand for the new iPhone 4

What record was broken? .We don't even know how many they sold. We don't know allotments.
post #13 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevetim View Post

What record was broken? .We don't even know how many they sold. We don't know allotments.

According to AT&T I would imagine. They reported the largest day in sales in their history.
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post #14 of 20
A small point maybe, but I'd call this a "forecast" instead of a "prediction," for the same reason meteorologists make weather forecasts, not weather predictions. A forecast implies changeability as new data becomes available. A prediction implies more certain knowledge of a future event.

I would not bring this up if we didn't see so much thumping on the analysts whenever they alter their "predictions" based on new information. Better to see these as forecasts, and not get so wrapped up in idea that these analysts are advertising magical predictive powers when they are not.
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post #15 of 20
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Statem....html?x=0&.v=1

Apple statement on i-phone pre-order sales
post #16 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by DJRumpy View Post

You argument might look impressive, if it was even remotely true, and if there was only a single vendor selling it. You argument is about as useful as saying that Windows dominates the Desktop OS market. If everyone is selling it, it just doesn't mean a whole lot.

iPhone still dominates the mobile market. It has 3 times the market of Android. The only folks Android is feeding on are Microsoft and RIM.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-20006889-37.html

and the iPhone has been mass market 3 times as long as Android. How many iPhone 4's go to new users of iPhone vs replacing old ones? I would wager 80-90%
post #17 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by bettieblue View Post

and the iPhone has been mass market 3 times as long as Android. How many iPhone 4's go to new users of iPhone vs replacing old ones? I would wager 80-90%

Wager all you like. The numbers don't lie. You assume Android will continue on it's path and sales. Any new product, just like the iPhone 4, grows rapidly and then plateau. Android has been out for a year less than iPhone (Android came out in Oct 2008, and iPhone came out in June of 2007). 3 Times as long? Really?

Try doing some minor research before you regurgitate that rhetoric from the pro-android forums.
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post #18 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by DJRumpy View Post

You argument might look impressive, if it was even remotely true, and if there was only a single vendor selling it. You argument is about as useful as saying that Windows dominates the Desktop OS market. If everyone is selling it, it just doesn't mean a whole lot.

iPhone still dominates the mobile market. It has 3 times the market of Android. The only folks Android is feeding on are Microsoft and RIM.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-20006889-37.html

Quote:
Originally Posted by bettieblue View Post

and the iPhone has been mass market 3 times as long as Android. How many iPhone 4's go to new users of iPhone vs replacing old ones? I would wager 80-90%

I love the revisionism. Android has been out over 2 years vs 3 years for iPhone. Not to mention that Google was working on Android long before the iPhone came out.

The worst part is this nonsense about lumping all Android phones together. That's like saying the Camry is unimportant because all American-made cars put together outsold the Camry.

My daughter just bought a Motorola Backflip - which is running Android 1.5!!! They claim that she'll eventually be able to upgrade to 2.1, but no timeline. Including that in the same category as, say, the Evo is completely misrepresenting the facts.
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post #19 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by DJRumpy View Post

You argument might look impressive, if it was even remotely true, and if there was only a single vendor selling it. You argument is about as useful as saying that Windows dominates the Desktop OS market. If everyone is selling it, it just doesn't mean a whole lot.

iPhone still dominates the mobile market. It has 3 times the market of Android. The only folks Android is feeding on are Microsoft and RIM.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-20006889-37.html

Did you read that article? It says that there are more iPhones sold than Android overall. Well, Duh! According to NPD, more Androids were sold in the last quarter than iPhones. Those numbers are in sync with Goggle's numbers from the Google IO that 100,000 Android phones were being activated per day. So at least in the last quarter, Android outsold the iPhone.
post #20 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

The worst part is this nonsense about lumping all Android phones together. That's like saying the Camry is unimportant because all American-made cars put together outsold the Camry.

My daughter just bought a Motorola Backflip - which is running Android 1.5!!! They claim that she'll eventually be able to upgrade to 2.1, but no timeline. Including that in the same category as, say, the Evo is completely misrepresenting the facts.

Why is it nonsense? The fact that Apple only sells 3 or 4 phones on one carrier makes no difference. That was Apple's choice. Just like it was Apple's choice to make Macs a closed system. The results are obvious. Whether it's a good decision or a bad decision is upto the Apple's Board of Directors. Obviously, they are willing to lose market share for profit. Whether that's a sound long term decision remains to be seen. It doesn't change the fact that if Apple continues with this strategy, Android is bound to eventually surpass Apple in market share - even if the last quarter may turn out to be a temporary blimp in the near term (although I think it's not). Apple may do better in this quarter, but if Apple doesn't sell to other carriers in the US by the end of this year, I think this trend will continue with the momentum that Android's got over the last 6 months or so.

The fact that the backflip is sold along with the EVO may not make sense now. But when you start seeing $200 contract free phones, it will make a big difference. In fact it's interesting (and inexplicable to me) that given that the price of the phone is such a negligible part of the cost of the contract, that anybody would buy a backflip when the EVO, Incredible and Galaxy S are available.
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