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iPhone 4 launch could sell 1.5 million, FaceTime seen as key driver

post #1 of 51
Thread Starter 
The iPhone 4 launch is expected to far exceed last year's debut of the iPhone 3GS, as Apple could see as much as 1.5 million units sold, with users said to be most excited about the addition of FaceTime.

Piper Jaffray

Analyst Gene Munster said that his firm noted lines two-to-three times longer than previous iPhone launches, and 9 of 20 stores surveyed were sold out of the handset by Thursday afternoon. Most of the remaining stores, he said, expected to be sold out by the end of the day.

Munster has estimated sales of 9.5 million units in both the June and September quarter. Given the strong launch and the fact that Apple has already announced that there were 600,000 iPhone 4 preorders on day one, he said he is increasingly confident in his estimates.

"Our best guess is that Apple reserves about half of the units for pre-orders (mail delivery and in-store pick up) and half for in-store purchases (walk-ins), implying total sales for the launch (including the 600k already announced for online and first three days) of between 1.0m to 1.5m," he wrote. "This would be the biggest iPhone launch (compare to 3GS at 1m)."

Last year, Apple sold over one million of the iPhone 3GS in its first three days. That, at the time, was the strongest debut for Apple's smartphone, but it is widely expected to be eclipsed by the iPhone 4.

UBS Investment Research

Based on a survey of over 100 customers outside of two Apple stores in New York City on Thursday, analyst Maynard Um found that 68 percent of respondents said FaceTime video chat is the most attractive new feature of the iPhone 4. Another 24 percent said the new HD capabilities, including 720p HD video recording and the new iMovie for iPhone, were the main selling point.

Among those surveyed, 64 percent said they planned to buy the high-end $299 32GB iPhone 4. That's more than the just-over-half that said they were getting the 32GB iPhone 3GS a year ago. Most who opted for the 32GB model said they were doing so because of higher capacity demands for HD video capabilities.

"As supply catches up with demand, our 9.8mm unit estimate for the September quarter is likely to prove conservative given the accelerated international launch," Um said. The handset launched in the U.S., France, Germany, the U.K., and Japan on Thursday. Apple has announced that the iPhone 4 international launch will ramp up to 87 total countries by September, its fastest global deployment of a new handset.

The UBS survey also found that 80 percent of respondents were upgrading to the iPhone 4 from the iPhone 3GS or iPhone 3G. Among switchers, 7 percent were transitioning from BlackBerry, 4 percent from Nokia, 3 percent from HTC, and 2 percent from Samsung.

Most -- 78 percent -- said they currently owned a Mac, another 33 percent owned an iPad, and 30 percent own an iPod touch. All of those surveyed (100 percent) said they own some type of iPod from Apple.
post #2 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Despite the yellow screens, despite the blocking of 3G reception when held in the left hand, despite iOS having a whopping 64 vulnerabilities fixed, despite all the glass, despite AT&T games and high prices...

...isn't the Reality Distortion Field just simply amazing?

Nice edit.

Quote:
Despite the yellow screens, despite the blocking of 3G reception when held in the left hand, despite iOS having a whopping 64 vulnerabilities fixed, despite all the glass, despite AT&T games...

Despite all those negatives, the iPhone will still sell 1.5 million upon launch.

I say Apple products are a impulsive luxury sale items and people don't believe me.

I don't see how they can think not.

Bottom line is that the iPhone is a good phone and Apple is really good at marketing. Hopefully Android continues to keep up so we can see some good competition.
post #3 of 51
In March of 2006 I wrote:
"Don't know how to start a poll, but I can tell you selling half of my stock is not what comes to mind at this point in AAPL history. How about doubling or trippling your investment.

future AAPL price = (market cap MSFT + market cap Nokia +market cap DELL)/outstanding AAPL shares = (262.00 billion + 101.33 billion + 49.97 billion)/881.62 million = 468.79

A little optimistic, but hey..."

These days that calculation looks realistic....
post #4 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Despite the yellow screens, despite the blocking of 3G reception when held in the left hand, despite iOS having a whopping 64 vulnerabilities fixed, despite all the glass, despite AT&T games and high prices...

...isn't the Reality Distortion Field just simply amazing?

It sure is! I almost bought one myself. Then I dropped 5 calls on my 3G and remembered why I must go back to Verizon. Sorry Steve.
post #5 of 51
I really like that technology is improving communications in some ways. To me having all of this capability on a telephone is unnecessary. I'd rather have an iPad with all the bells and whistles and have a bare bones telephone that costs very little money with a very low monthly rate.

To me the biggest problem with cell phones is the quality of the calls. Lets make some awesome low cost phones that cost $20 per month that have nothing more than the ability to make great clear calls no matter where they are in the country. I don't think that exists in the USA.

Yes I'm really one of the few people who don't want a smart phone. I don't expect what I want to ever be made or offered these days. The benefit of the smart phones is that they are the only reason telecommunication companies are improving their networks. If there were no emerging market for more data plans and greater profits, the cell phone industry would still be the same as it was in the early 1980s. The networks were so sparse then that cell phones were rare.
post #6 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smallwheels View Post

I really like that technology is improving communications in some ways. To me having all of this capability on a telephone is unnecessary. I'd rather have an iPad with all the bells and whistles and have a bare bones telephone that costs very little money with a very low monthly rate.

To me the biggest problem with cell phones is the quality of the calls. Lets make some awesome low cost phones that cost $20 per month that have nothing more than the ability to make great clear calls no matter where they are in the country. I don't think that exists in the USA.

Yes I'm really one of the few people who don't want a smart phone. I don't expect what I want to ever be made or offered these days. The benefit of the smart phones is that they are the only reason telecommunication companies are improving their networks. If there were no emerging market for more data plans and greater profits, the cell phone industry would still be the same as it was in the early 1980s. The networks were so sparse then that cell phones were rare.

This problem lies with the carriers. They have to support the technology before handset manufacturers can improve anything on their end.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Shortly one will get all the new iPhone features on other phones from other carriers, there is only so far one can go and do with a phone.

Competition will set in and a price war will ensue. Carriers will have to compete and lower their prices once again.

Yeah, I agree. That said, the features introduced with iOS4 and the iPhone 4 that are not on Android are few and far between. And Android has features with Froyo that iOS4 does not. This next year will be an interesting one with Gingerbread coming out in December (according to Google) and the possibility of a Verizon iPhone.
post #7 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

"Our best guess is that Apple reserves about half of the units for pre-orders (mail delivery and in-store pick up) and half for in-store purchases (walk-ins), implying total sales for the launch (including the 600k already announced for online and first three days) of between 1.0m to 1.5m," he wrote. "This would be the biggest iPhone launch (compare to 3GS at 1m)."

That 600,000 was only Apple + ATT in USA. That leaves Radio Shack, Best Buy, and the other countries. Should easily bring that up to 2M - perhaps even more. IMHO.
post #8 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

... with users said to be most excited about the addition of FaceTime.

Until they discover it only works between two iPhone4s and only when both parties are using WiFi. Until this changes, I cannot see FaceTime really taking off.
post #9 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Despite the yellow screens, despite the blocking of 3G reception when held in the left hand, despite iOS having a whopping 64 vulnerabilities fixed, despite all the glass, despite AT&T games and high prices...

...isn't the Reality Distortion Field just simply amazing?

Is Droid any better? Note, the vulnerabilities have been fixed. We do not yet know if the reception is a serious problem or not, ditto the yellow.

high prices...
What about all the free apps in the app store? Are those priced too high? Are Android phones significantly cheaper? Have any iPhone apps dialed up pay-to-call numbers and run up execess charges like on Android phones?

Let's just wait for the satisfaction data to come out and see if iPhone users still rate them at 90% extremely satisfied beating the competition by far.
post #10 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmmx View Post

Is Droid any better? Note, the vulnerabilities have been fixed. We do not yet know if the reception is a serious problem or not, ditto the yellow.

high prices...
What about all the free apps in the app store? Are those priced too high? Are Android phones significantly cheaper? Have any iPhone apps dialed up pay-to-call numbers and run up execess charges like on Android phones?

Let's just wait for the satisfaction data to come out and see if iPhone users still rate them at 90% extremely satisfied beating the competition by far.

Don't forget that many (if not most) of the Android phones sold in the last year were 2-for-1 promotions.
post #11 of 51
1.5 million? Certainly possible.

- posted from my flawless iPhone 4
post #12 of 51
I still say two millions on launch weekend (24th to 27th). This new iPhone is big upgrade from last version.
post #13 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Despite the yellow screens, despite the blocking of 3G reception when held in the left hand, despite iOS having a whopping 64 vulnerabilities fixed, despite all the glass, despite AT&T games and high prices...

...isn't the Reality Distortion Field just simply amazing?

YOU'RE the distortion in the field for dwelling on the negatives!

People happily stand in lines across the planet because of the positives in the product and for the opportunities to share in something special which promises to enhance their lives.

Daniel Swanson

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Daniel Swanson

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post #14 of 51
Man, this thing flies...


post #15 of 51
... is that the iPhone 4 is the only recent smart phone that gets dropped???

I guess Apple just needs to include a Valcro case and gloves with each iPhone!

.
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post #16 of 51
.

Oh, I saw Bill O'Reilly making a FaceTime call to Glen Beck!

.
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post #17 of 51
Apple is trying to do an end run around the cell companies since they don't like to work with or partner with anyone. They are trying to leverage their dominance in the hand held market to perpetuate the adoption of free publicly owned wifi in every city. That way people will no longer need to use the phone as a cell phone but depend solely on Apple for all their communication needs using FaceTime.

Life is too short to drink bad coffee.

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post #18 of 51
I can't wait to get to an Apple store and play with one. No upgrade for me though. I got my 3GS last August and don't feel the need to upgrade yet. The only thing (and I mean only) that I wish Apple would do is release a 64 GB version. Maybe later this year.
post #19 of 51
"Based on a survey of over 100 customers outside of two Apple stores "

Ummm yeah that is not a BIAS survey.

Went to bestbuy today at lunch to get a memory stick for a camera, and there were 3 or 4 iTard's lined up to get a blotchy, yellow screened iPhone 4.0.....my precious....my preeeeeeccciouuuus.....must have...must HAVE!!!!!!
post #20 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by bettieblue View Post

"Based on a survey of over 100 customers outside of two Apple stores "

Ummm yeah that is not a BIAS survey.

Went to bestbuy today at lunch to get a memory stick for a camera, and there were 3 or 4 iTard's lined up to get a blotchy, yellow screened iPhone 4.0.....my precious....my preeeeeeccciouuuus.....must have...must HAVE!!!!!!

apple is doomed
whats in a name ? 
beatles
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post #21 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by brucep View Post

apple is doomed

lol... Apple's success infuriates them. You have to admit, it's kinda funny to watch.
post #22 of 51
The 600k number can only count legal sales-- home delivery, and maybe other retailers. What they sold in-store is much higher. The store I was supposed to pick one up at had over 400 people in line at 4:30 pm for reserves. Looking at people coming out, I would guess they are moving about 40-60 per hour, which should put them at 700 today. Multiply by 240 stores, 1.7MM plus the 600k for about 2.3MM.

...but they pissed me off with the way they handled it. There is no reason they shouldn't be able to process 200 customers per hour. Not going to waste this beautiful day in line...
post #23 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Despite the yellow screens, despite the blocking of 3G reception when held in the left hand, despite iOS having a whopping 64 vulnerabilities fixed, despite all the glass, despite AT&T games and high prices...

...isn't the Reality Distortion Field just simply amazing?


Despite the fact that  spend much LESS than its competitors in propaganda to be able to distort anything?
Despite the fact that  haters do spend so much of their time plotting against  success, writing nonsense.

Apple still sell cakes?
Indeed magical!
post #24 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

.

Oh, I saw Bill O'Reilly making a FaceTime call to Glen Beck!

.



Apple is really doomed, those two Stupidest people on earth also use iPhone!
post #25 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Postulant View Post

lol... Apple's success infuriates them. You have to admit, it's kinda funny to watch.

most of the trolls have left ...but yes the sky is falling syndrome here is quite the giggle-rama

peace

9
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beatles
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post #26 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ochyming View Post

Apple is really doomed, those two Stupidest people on earth also use iPhone!

Oops... Sorry, that was Steven Colbert making a FaceTime call to Jon Stewart!

.
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post #27 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ochyming View Post

Apple is really doomed, those two Stupidest people on earth also use iPhone!

If they are the stupidest people on earth, that bodes well for the ease of use of Facetime.
post #28 of 51
I stood in line for the first iPhone three years ago and it was an great experience to be apart of how far we have come with technology. This time I tried to order online through the Apple website and finally was able to order online with AT&T. It has been the worst experience I have had ordering online. Since Tuesday the 15th, I had to call AT&T seven times to ensure the order was being processed. I had my Credit Card company call them and conference me into the call and still that did not work without calling again. Now today I received my order for my two iphones only to open the box and see the 16G iPhone and not the 32G iPhone. So I called AT&T again to see when I would receive my 32G iPhone and was told that more people ordered the 32G and that they did not know when it would arrive. I pointed out to them that two days ago I received an email from them thanking me for my purchase and hope I enjoy my new 3G iPhone. I never did get an email telling me that Apple could not meet the demand for all of the 32G iPhone's that was ordered and there would be a delay in shipping. I find it hard to believe that Apple and AT&T are clueless on not knowing it could not meet the demand since they had already received over 600,000 orders by Wednesday the 16th. As an Apple supporter, I have a Laptop, iPod first generation, the first iMac, Power PC, and the iMac Intel, along with two of the original iPhones. I was charged for two iPhones on my credit card and have only received one as of today. I was told by AT&T that it could be until the 28th before I get the 32G iPhone. I am not a happy customer. This is not how you treat a loyal customer that believes in your product and supports it. If you can't meet demand at least have the balls and give us the truths not the shaft.
post #29 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by bettieblue View Post

"Based on a survey of over 100 customers outside of two Apple stores "

Ummm yeah that is not a BIAS survey.

Went to bestbuy today at lunch to get a memory stick for a camera, and there were 3 or 4 iTard's lined up to get a blotchy, yellow screened iPhone 4.0.....my precious....my preeeeeeccciouuuus.....must have...must HAVE!!!!!!

If Android outsells the iPhone, Apple haters take that as proof that the Android platform is superior and that APPLE IS DOOMED! When Apple outsells Android, all it means is that everybody but them is an idiot. Such a wonderfully distorted reality they live in.
post #30 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Qualia View Post

If Android outsells the iPhone, Apple haters take that as proof that the Android platform is superior and that APPLE IS DOOMED! When Apple outsells Android, all it means is that everybody but them is an idiot. Such a wonderfully distorted reality they live in.

Android is doomed
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post #31 of 51
The way I see it, the screen, processor, and form factor changes are the major things driving iPhone 4 sales.

To a lesser extent, maybe call quality and signal improvements.
post #32 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

The 600k number can only count legal sales-- home delivery, and maybe other retailers. What they sold in-store is much higher. The store I was supposed to pick one up at had over 400 people in line at 4:30 pm for reserves. Looking at people coming out, I would guess they are moving about 40-60 per hour, which should put them at 700 today. Multiply by 240 stores, 1.7MM plus the 600k for about 2.3MM.

...but they pissed me off with the way they handled it. There is no reason they shouldn't be able to process 200 customers per hour. Not going to waste this beautiful day in line...

I would be shocked if the number is anywhere near that. Apple pushed out its online order delivery date well into July. AT&T stopped taking orders after the first day, claiming that they would have insufficient phones in stock to take any more orders (although in that case, it may have simply been AT&T's incompetence).

If Apple expected to have 2.3 M phones available the first day, they wouldn't have pushed out their deliveries into July. I think it's more likely that the number sold the first day will be closer to 700 K (maybe 800 K max) - most of the 600 K preorders and a token 100 K for the lucky customers who get into the stores early.
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post #33 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by brucep View Post

Android is doomed

iOS, Android, and WebOS are all not doomed.

No matter how hard Apple tries, one device from one manufacturer on one cell phone network (in the US) cannot compete with dozens of devices on all networks, especially when the quality is so similar. Doesn't anyone remember Mac vs. Windows? Windows wasn't even any good, at least Android is a competent competitor. Every manufacturer creating Android devices add to it, since Android has the open source advantage PLUS the commercial backing of Google. It's like mashing up the best parts of the Windows and open source business models.

Apple is still far ahead, especially with iPhone 4. We'll see if that lasts.
post #34 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by bettieblue View Post

"Based on a survey of over 100 customers outside of two Apple stores "

Ummm yeah that is not a BIAS survey.

Went to bestbuy today at lunch to get a memory stick for a camera, and there were 3 or 4 iTard's lined up to get a blotchy, yellow screened iPhone 4.0.....my precious....my preeeeeeccciouuuus.....must have...must HAVE!!!!!!

Well it's not terribly biased, as these are the people who are actually buying it and they are simply stating why they are buying it.
post #35 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orlando View Post

Until they discover it only works between two iPhone4s and only when both parties are using WiFi. Until this changes, I cannot see FaceTime really taking off.

What we really need is a Skype app with the functionality of Facetime between different networks and phones.

The surprising thing is, most other iPhone competitors didn't really have front facing cameras so even with such an app the benefits wouldn't be that great. Probably because "if the iPhone doesn't have it, we don't need it."

Personally, I find the idea of video chatting a little weird. I do have a lot of awkwardness on the phone from missing facial expressions, but I would rather not replace that with the awkwardness of having to act like I'm face to face with someone without actually being there. Maybe it's something to get used to.
post #36 of 51
"FaceTime seen as key driver"... until the reality of just how limited such a feature truly is when limited only to WiFi.
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post #37 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by akhomerun View Post

Personally, I find the idea of video chatting a little weird. I do have a lot of awkwardness on the phone from missing facial expressions, but I would rather not replace that with the awkwardness of having to act like I'm face to face with someone without actually being there. Maybe it's something to get used to.

I think it would depend. I can't imagine using it for business, but I could picture using it all the time when I was traveling and my daughter was young. Although that probably won't be very practical until you can Facetime with a computer.

Speaking of Facetime, I have the perfect music for an ad. The Cornell University Hangovers did an a cappella song called "Facetime" a number of years ago. Basically, it just listed all the places you could go on campus to be seen. It would be easy to change the song to just list all the people you could talk with using Apple's Facetime. It's a very catchy song and would probably go over well.
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post #38 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

I would be shocked if the number is anywhere near that. Apple pushed out its online order delivery date well into July. AT&T stopped taking orders after the first day, claiming that they would have insufficient phones in stock to take any more orders (although in that case, it may have simply been AT&T's incompetence).

If Apple expected to have 2.3 M phones available the first day, they wouldn't have pushed out their deliveries into July. I think it's more likely that the number sold the first day will be closer to 700 K (maybe 800 K max) - most of the 600 K preorders and a token 100 K for the lucky customers who get into the stores early.

My premise is that the 600k only includes actual sales, not "reservations." They sell whatever they have; not having 2-3MM on launch would just be stupid , save a production problem.
post #39 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post

Competition will set in and a price war will ensue. Carriers will have to compete and lower their prices once again.

Oh, I see, just like what happened to iPod in the digital music player business. iRiver, Zune, and others just wiped them out with lower prices and feature matching.
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post #40 of 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robin Huber View Post

Oh, I see, just like what happened to iPod in the digital music player business. iRiver, Zune, and others just wiped them out with lower prices and feature matching.

You're talking crazy now... no wait, the other thing, sanity.
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