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Apple's blockbuster launch seen as just the beginning for iPhone 4

post #1 of 46
Thread Starter 
While the new iPhone 4 from Apple sold a record 1.7 million units in its first three days, analysts on Wall Street believe that number would have been even higher if more supplies were available.

Piper Jaffray

Sales momentum for the iPhone 4 is expected to continue, analyst Gene Munster said, thanks to a number of catalysts in the near future. Chief among them is quick international expansion, with the new handset set to become available in 88 total countries by the end of September.

Apple also revealed last week that the white iPhone 4 will go on sale in July, as the handset didn't make last week's launch date due to manufacturing difficulties.

In addition, Munster believes that about 200,000 preorders (one-third of the 600,000 announced direct from Apple) were placed after shipments were pushed back to July. Currently, new iPhone 4 preorders from Apple carry a three-week wait.

Munster believes Apple will sell 9.5 million iPhones in the June quarter, which concludes this week. That number is unchanged, despite the fact that Apple's announcement of 1.7 million units sold is 200,000 greater than his previous high-end prediction. He said the estimate for the June quarter will remain unchanged because he had a strong iPhone 4 launch already built into assumptions for the three-month frame.

UBS Investment Research

Analyst Maynard Um expects Apple to sell just 8 million iPhones this quarter, down from the record 8.75 million sold last quarter. But when supply for the iPhone 4 catches up with demand next quarter, he sees Apple selling at least 9.8 million units -- and likely even more, as he admitted that number is "conservative."

"Demand continues to remain stronger than supply as most stores remained sold out or held minimal inventory throughout the weekend and Apple's online store currently has a 3 week wait for the device," Um wrote. "Our anecdotal checks indicate that demand will be robust for some time as the company plans to launch in an additional 18 countries in July (and 88 countries by the end of Sept.); we believe the company is currently selling through every device they are able to manufacture."
post #2 of 46
Apple is doomed because Ireland said so.
post #3 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2 cents View Post

Apple is doomed because Ireland said so.

Why so much hating on Ireland? I sometimes disagree with him, but he usually has interesting and useful things to contribute.
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post #4 of 46
I think they're going to break 10 million which is why they've got fix this signal issue as quickly as possible. You don't want to smartphone getting a label that it can't make calls.

As of rightnow I don't think we'll see sales subside any time soon.
post #5 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robin Huber View Post

Why so much hating on Ireland? I sometimes disagree with him, but he usually has interesting and useful things to contribute.

He has recently been rather aggressive and insulting, even to many long time and respected posters so many are sniping back that's all. He started it. I am sure it will blow over
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post #6 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robin Huber View Post

Why so much hating on Ireland? I sometimes disagree with him, but he usually has interesting and useful things to contribute.

There was a lot of troll-like behavior from him for a couple days but that seems to have passed so it's water under the bridge as far as I'm concerned.
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post #7 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by str1f3 View Post

You don't want to smartphone getting a label that it can't make calls.

It seems that every iPhone has had that label yet Apple still maintains their dominance as the device all others are compared to and Apple is the most profitable handset vendor in the world.
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post #8 of 46
VERIZON: Ouch!!!
post #9 of 46
I wonder how much the reception problems have played into the sales numbers.
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Fragmentation is not just something we have to acknowledge and accept. Fragmentation is something that we deal with every day, and we must accept it as a fact of the iPhone platform experience.

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post #10 of 46
How do I get to be a Wall Street analyst? Do they really get paid for effectively saying, "a company would have sold more of something that sold out, if only they had more of them"???

Aparantly water is also wet these days.
post #11 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson View Post

How do I get to be a Wall Street analyst? Do they really get paid for effectively saying, "a company would have sold more of something that sold out, if only they had more of them"???

Aparantly water is also wet these days.

lol
post #12 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

It seems that every iPhone has had that label yet Apple still maintains their dominance as the device all others are compared to and Apple is the most profitable handset vendor in the world.

I thought about that too when I posted but there's a difference between blaming the network and the phone. There are other areas where AT&T does provide a quality network. If the iPhone fails as well there then...

All hope is not lost though as Jimmy Fallon says his new iPhone is giving him better reception in NYC.
post #13 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by str1f3 View Post

All hope is not lost though as Jimmy Fallon says his new iPhone is giving him better reception in NYC.

Considering the reports of AT&T reception from NYC, "better" isn't really reassuring.
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post #14 of 46
Great launch numbers... now let's sort out all the (actual, verified, factual) issues.
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post #15 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robin Huber View Post

Why so much hating on Ireland? I sometimes disagree with him, but he usually has interesting and useful things to contribute.

Because he's not part of the (self-proclaimed) AppleInsider Elite - Simple As That!
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post #16 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson View Post

How do I get to be a Wall Street analyst? Do they really get paid for effectively saying, "a company would have sold more of something that sold out, if only they had more of them"???

Aparantly water is also wet these days.

C'mon! He/they are publishing advisory/analysis for investors-- their customers.

It would have been a disservice to their customers to merely state: "Apple sold a record 1.7 million units in its first three days"

What does that mean-- did they have 10 million available and only sold 1.7 million?

By restating that there was a supply constriction, they are fleshing out their report. By suggesting that they could have sold more, they are providing their analysis of the potential to investors who may not follow AAPL that closely.

They are just doing their job: gathering facts; analyzing the data; reporting the results as clearly and specifically as possible.

.
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post #17 of 46
Had Apple opened a deal with Verizon they would have MANY MORE SALES! The reason I refuse to use an iPhone is solely due to them being joined at the hips with the ultra shoddy network known as AT&T. Love the iPhone / HATE AT&T!


Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

While the new iPhone 4 from Apple sold a record 1.7 million units in its first three days, analysts on Wall Street believe that number would have been even higher if more supplies were available.

Piper Jaffray

Sales momentum for the iPhone 4 is expected to continue, analyst Gene Munster said, thanks to a number of catalysts in the near future. Chief among them is quick international expansion, with the new handset set to become available in 88 total countries by the end of September.

Apple also revealed last week that the white iPhone 4 will go on sale in July, as the handset didn't make last week's launch date due to manufacturing difficulties.

In addition, Munster believes that about 200,000 preorders (one-third of the 600,000 announced direct from Apple) were placed after shipments were pushed back to July. Currently, new iPhone 4 preorders from Apple carry a three-week wait.

Munster believes Apple will sell 9.5 million iPhones in the June quarter, which concludes this week. That number is unchanged, despite the fact that Apple's announcement of 1.7 million units sold is 200,000 greater than his previous high-end prediction. He said the estimate for the June quarter will remain unchanged because he had a strong iPhone 4 launch already built into assumptions for the three-month frame.

UBS Investment Research

Analyst Maynard Um expects Apple to sell just 8 million iPhones this quarter, down from the record 8.75 million sold last quarter. But when supply for the iPhone 4 catches up with demand next quarter, he sees Apple selling at least 9.8 million units -- and likely even more, as he admitted that number is "conservative."

"Demand continues to remain stronger than supply as most stores remained sold out or held minimal inventory throughout the weekend and Apple's online store currently has a 3 week wait for the device," Um wrote. "Our anecdotal checks indicate that demand will be robust for some time as the company plans to launch in an additional 18 countries in July (and 88 countries by the end of Sept.); we believe the company is currently selling through every device they are able to manufacture."
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post #18 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson View Post

How do I get to be a Wall Street analyst? Do they really get paid for effectively saying, "a company would have sold more of something that sold out, if only they had more of them"???

Aparantly water is also wet these days.

Where did the analyst say that?

Certainly not in this article.
post #19 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onhka View Post

Where did the analyst say that?

Certainly not in this article.

Neither of them said that. I was making a joke. Feel free to add me to your ignore list if you want to take everything ridiculously seriously and literally.
post #20 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

It seems that every iPhone has had that label yet Apple still maintains their dominance as the device all others are compared to and Apple is the most profitable handset vendor in the world.


The drop of signal bars with the left hand issue is repeatable for me but if you live in a strong signal area it is a non-issue since it doesn't affect the call quality or the ability to place and receive calls.

This is the only condition I have been able to test the iPhone 4 so far since everywhere around my city usually has 5 bars. Apparently those in weaker signal areas are more affected, but as AT&T increases their coverage, the problem may become less and less significant as time goes on.

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post #21 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHarder View Post

Because he's not part of the (self-proclaimed) AppleInsider Elite - Simple As That!

If the AppleInsider Elite are self-proclaimed, then I suppose anyone can be part of that group.
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post #22 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson View Post

Neither of them said that. I was making a joke. Feel free to add me to your ignore list if you want to take everything ridiculously seriously and literally.

You have to admit, the endless repetition of the "sky is blue!!1 " comments after an analyst report says something that people following Apple find obvious is almost as annoying as the "I'm patenting water!!1!" comments after reports of a dubious patent claim...

If you can't come up with something more clever or original, you're bound to catch some heat if you misstate the facts too...
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post #23 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robin Huber View Post

Why so much hating on Ireland? I sometimes disagree with him, but he usually has interesting and useful things to contribute.

Because he has made several threads virtually unreadable by posting his opinions over and over and over again. Everyone is entitled to his opinion but why do I have to read it every other message?

As for the other poster saying I am the "self-proclaimed elite," I am anything but the elite and proclaim nothing. I would simply like to read the comments without all the trolls and dingbats taking over. Managing my ignore list is turning into a real chore.
post #24 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by str1f3 View Post

I think they're going to break 10 million which is why they've got fix this signal issue as quickly as possible. You don't want to smartphone getting a label that it can't make calls.

As of rightnow I don't think we'll see sales subside any time soon.

I was at the Apple Store in Honolulu (Ala Moana) yesterday. I could not replicate problem in sample phone. I tried every way I could to cover the phone and still ha 5 bars.

I bleive problem is way overblown and may be hyped by the competition.

I was listening to a Las Vegas station on the Internet Friday and heard 5 CNET ads for 5 reasons not to buy iPhone 4 including the reception problem. Not sure what their purpose was. Probably paid for by Google or Verizon.
post #25 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tazznb View Post

Had Apple opened a deal with Verizon they would have MANY MORE SALES! The reason I refuse to use an iPhone is solely due to them being joined at the hips with the ultra shoddy network known as AT&T. Love the iPhone / HATE AT&T!

I'd argue that their sales these past few days would be exactly the same regardless of the number of carriers or countries participating.
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post #26 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by pridon View Post

I was at the Apple Store in Honolulu (Ala Moana) yesterday. I could not replicate problem in sample phone. I tried every way I could to cover the phone and still ha 5 bars.

I bleive problem is way overblown and may be hyped by the competition.

I was listening to a Las Vegas station on the Internet Friday and heard 5 CNET ads for 5 reasons not to buy iPhone 4 including the reception problem. Not sure what their purpose was. Probably paid for by Google or Verizon.

It's certainly being overblown by someone. I can imagine if it does effect you it's a real pain, since as I understand it someone who is right handed would struggle to take notes whilst on a call, and it clearly has to be fixed, but I know a few people with iPhone 4 and none of them are having any problems.

Apple are victims of their own success in many ways. They have such a strong track record that it's now a story when something goes wrong, no matter what the overall scope of that problem is.
post #27 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tazznb View Post

Had Apple opened a deal with Verizon they would have MANY MORE SALES! The reason I refuse to use an iPhone is solely due to them being joined at the hips with the ultra shoddy network known as AT&T. Love the iPhone / HATE AT&T!

Apple books orders when someone orders the product!

Apple books sales when they ship/bill the product!

The iPhone is supply-constrained meaning there are not enough phones to fill existing orders.

Having a Verizon phone [maybe] would have led to more bookings, but it certainly would have not led to more sales!

In fact, a case can be made that having a Verizon phone, at launch, would have led to fewer sales-- consider:

-- say Apple builds 2 million iPhones for launch
-- say they forecast that 70% will be ATT and 30% VZN (you pick 'em).
-- say the reseller channel gets 50% of all phones - 700,000 ATT & 300,000 VZN
-- they attempt to intelligently allocate product to the channel

For discussion purposes:

-- ATT stores get all ATT iPhones
-- VZN stores get all VZN iPhones
-- Apple, BestBuy, RadioShack get some mixture of ATT & VZN iPhones

So, I go into my local RS to trade in my 3GS for an ATT iPhone 4 (we are happy with ATT & have a family plan). But the RS store got only 10 iPhones:

-- 3 ATT 16 GB
-- 4 ATT 32 GB
-- 1 VZN 16 GB
-- 2 VZN 32 GB

And the only ATT iPhone left is a 16 GB (I need a 32 GB). There are 1 of each VZN in stock.

So, I leave without an iPhone and RS misses a sale.

The fact that RS has 1 unsold ATT and 2 unsold VZN iPhones still counts as a sale for Apple (just not for RS).

I do not know how Apple Stores are handled-- whether Apple books a sale when the Store's order is shipped by Apple, or when the store sells the iPhone to the end user.

Anyway, it is likely that the resellers have more unsold iPhones on their shelves because it is more difficult to forecast the buyers' preferences.

Then, it starts to get really complicated, as the resellers with unsold stock, adjust their standing orders with Apple-- likely restocking fewer of the unsold models. Then Apple needs to adjust production to reflect the channel orders...

The whole thing would have addd additional complexity to an already frustrating environment-- How many lines at the Apple (etc.) Store (4 instead of 2):

-- ATT Reserved
-- VZN Reserved
-- ATT Walk-in
-- VZN Walk-in

How many employees do you train/schedule/equip for ATT activation, For VZN activation?


Probably, it would have been a real mess at any non-carrier reseller with any stock!


The more flavors of Jello that you sell, means the more unsold boxes are on your shelves!



But, hey, maybe you would have been able to buy an VZN iPhone -- even if it meant that Apple (ands its dealers) would have sold fewer iPhones.

.
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post #28 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by g3pro View Post

I wonder how much the reception problems have played into the sales numbers.

Well, since iPhone 4 is currently sold out with a three week wait for backorders... (rolls eyes)

Has any other phone ever had so strong a launch?
post #29 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson View Post

Neither of them said that. I was making a joke. Feel free to add me to your ignore list if you want to take everything ridiculously seriously and literally.

Your so-called 'joke' led other people to accept it as fact.

Bad enough that the internet is so strewn with such poor reporting that we need to assist them.

As the say, perception is reality. And unfortunately a truer words were never better spoken than in the world wide web.
post #30 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHarder View Post

Great launch numbers... now let's sort out all the (actual, verified, factual) issues.

Any word on how many sales have been to new customers (versus current iPhone owners)?

While these numbers are great, they'd be even better if they represented market expansion.
post #31 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2oh1 View Post

Well, since iPhone 4 is currently sold out with a three week wait for backorders... (rolls eyes)

Has any other phone ever had so strong a launch?

No, but its difficult to compare apples to apples... so to speak.

There is not 'one' android platform, but many and they roll out through out the year. Just saw Samsung is coming out with there latest greatest, then Motorola etc.

Where as there is only one iphone platform.

The real thing to watch is market share. Android is catching up.

But thats ok, competition is a good thing for us consumers.
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post #32 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tazznb View Post

Had Apple opened a deal with Verizon they would have MANY MORE SALES! The reason I refuse to use an iPhone is solely due to them being joined at the hips with the ultra shoddy network known as AT&T. Love the iPhone / HATE AT&T!

Seriously? Did you pass first grade math? Let me try to pose this in terms even a Verizon fanboi could comprehend, or at least something my first grader could easily answer...

Little Steve has a basket with 17 apples. He goes to the a nearby town called AT&T and finds more than 50 people in line to buy one of his apples when he arrives. He ends up selling all of his apples and leaves with an empty basket. If little steve then took his empty basket to Verizon Town's market, how many more apples could he sell?

a) 8 more apples, because Verizon people don't like smart fruit as much as AT&T residents.
b) 34 more apples because Verizon people really wish they could get apples.
c) None, the basket is already empty because Steve sold all the apples he had.

Let me know if you still need help.
post #33 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by sippincider View Post

Any word on how many sales have been to new customers (versus current iPhone owners)?

While these numbers are great, they'd be even better if they represented market expansion.

77% were sold to people who already owned an iPhone. This is expected given how difficult is was to get one. The market expansion will come from people getting hand me down 3G and 3GS units and sales to new customers once they can walk into a retail location and get their hands on one.
post #34 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

If the AppleInsider Elite are self-proclaimed, then I suppose anyone can be part of that group.

Absolutely All it takes is civility.
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post #35 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by AIaddict View Post

The market expansion will come from people getting hand me down 3G and 3GS units and sales to new customers once they can walk into a retail location and get their hands on one.

Excellent point.
post #36 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2 cents View Post

Because he has made several threads virtually unreadable by posting his opinions over and over and over again. Everyone is entitled to his opinion but why do I have to read it every other message?

As for the other poster saying I am the "self-proclaimed elite," I am anything but the elite and proclaim nothing. I would simply like to read the comments without all the trolls and dingbats taking over. Managing my ignore list is turning into a real chore.

Had to laugh at the last point. Aperture's feature to pick up and drop attributes would come in handy!
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post #37 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by boeyc15 View Post

No, but its difficult to compare apples to apples... so to speak.

There is not 'one' android platform, but many and they roll out through out the year. Just saw Samsung is coming out with there latest greatest, then Motorola etc.

Where as there is only one iphone platform.

The real thing to watch is market share. Android is catching up.

But thats ok, competition is a good thing for us consumers.

Personally I would like to see Android do a lot better job of catching up in quality, to either push Apple, or to give me an alternative to an iPhone plus jailbreak to meet my wants and "needs". Holding them side by side and actually comparing them in normal usage, I think Android is still a couple years behind.

When looking at markets share, which you pointed out, I think Android is only really making waves in the US market. Android is has become the alternative to the iPhone for US geeks who have a religious hate for Apple, for people who refuse to leave Verizon, and for the people who prefer Sprint's lower monthly pricing. Where the iPhone is available on multiple carriers, Android seems to still be an also ran after Symbian RIM and Apple.
post #38 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by AIaddict View Post

77% were sold to people who already owned an iPhone. This is expected given how difficult is was to get one. The market expansion will come from people getting hand me down 3G and 3GS units and sales to new customers once they can walk into a retail location and get their hands on one.

A lot of my friends who are parents are giving their phones to their young kids to use as iPods to watch movies.
post #39 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by davidbrummy View Post

A lot of my friends who are parents are giving their phones to their young kids to use as iPods to watch movies.

Yes, I've been buying disney and pixar blu-rays that include digital copy...I wish the interactive books on the iPad was available on the iPhone 4.
post #40 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by davidbrummy View Post

A lot of my friends who are parents are giving their phones to their young kids to use as iPods to watch movies.

I resemble that remark. My kids are using my 3G mostly to play games. I decided not to sell it until my iPhone 4 is unlocked and usable with a local sim when I travel.
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