or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPhone › Verizon could sell 12M iPhones a year, but don't 'pop the champagne'
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Verizon could sell 12M iPhones a year, but don't 'pop the champagne'

post #1 of 61
Thread Starter 
A Verizon-compatible CDMA iPhone could result in at least 12 million new unit sales for Apple next year, one Wall Street analyst believes, though he's not convinced the deal will actually happen in January 2011.

Yair Reiner of Oppenheimer cited a new report from Bloomberg this week, which cited two unnamed sources in reporting that a Verizon iPhone is expected to arrive from Apple in January of 2011. Such a move, which has been rumored for some time, would mark the end of iPhone exclusivity for rival wireless carrier AT&T.

But Reiner isn't completely sold on the prospect of a Verizon iPhone in early 2011. The analyst, in a note issued to investors Wednesday morning, noted that such rumors have surfaced numerous times.

"Similar speculation has emerged before, so barring independent confirmation or a press release from one of the parties, it'd be rash to pop the champagne," he wrote. "Still, it's worth considering the potential implications."

The impact for Apple would be huge, he believes, adding at least 12 million additional iPhone sales in the U.S. annually. That would amount to $7 billion in incremental revenue and more than $3 in incremental earnings per share.

"Many investors have mused about this upside, but few, we believe, have built it into their models or expectations," he said. "If this is real, it's big and it's incremental."

On AT&T alone, Apple over the last year sold 11 million iPhones to its 65 million postpaid install base of subscribers. Some of those subscribers who switched for the iPhone would inevitably move back to Verizon if Apple's handset became available on its network, Reiner said. But with Verizon's 83 million subscribers, Verizon would likely add at least 12 million net subscribers for Apple, and likely many more.

And from a strategic standpoint, Yainer said he believes it makes sense, as adding Verizon would "significantly blunt the competitive threat" from Google's Android mobile operating system. Since last year, Verizon has worked closely with Google to offer some of the best Android devices in an effort to compete with the iPhone. One new handset coming soon is Motorola's Droid X.

Weighing the possibilities of an Apple-Verizon deal, Reiner noted that AT&T made some subscribers eligible for an iPhone 4 upgrade long before their two-year contract was set to expire. He said it could have been a "last-ditch effort to lock them into new contracts before Verizon came aboard," or just the fear of a possible Verizon deal could have inspired AT&T.

On the other hand, he also noted that a January handset debut would run counter to the established iPhone refresh schedule, in which Apple introduces a new handset at its annual Worldwide Developers Conference in June.

"Would Verizon just get a CDMA version of the current iPhone 4? Would it get a new iPhone? Neither scenario makes much sense given that the iPhone just got a huge upgrade and that another isn't likely before mid-2011," he said.
post #2 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

"Would Verizon just get a CDMA version of the current iPhone 4? Would it get a new iPhone?

Stay tuned to find out!

Same Bat Channel!

Same Bat Time!





Good morning all...

Ten years ago, we had Steve Jobs, Bob Hope and Johnny Cash.  Today we have no Jobs, no Hope and no Cash.

Reply

Ten years ago, we had Steve Jobs, Bob Hope and Johnny Cash.  Today we have no Jobs, no Hope and no Cash.

Reply
post #3 of 61
With LTE right around the corner - and Verizon recently joining the GSMA board - I would think that some sort of LTE compatible iPhone mid year 2011 is more likely - that way production and sales of the next gen iPhone could coincide with the deployment of LTE - just a matter of synchronizing those two schedules - and perhaps in part AT&Ts plans to move to LTE.

AT&Ts move to allow early updates could be nothing more than increasing the pool of potential buyers for new hardware.
post #4 of 61
Heeeeere we go again! Believe it when I see it.

Verizon is definitely better, but they rape your wallet for it. Two power hungry companies, IMO, can't work together either. Att bent over for the iPhone. I don't see verizon doing that.

My opinion, other companies will get it. Not CDMA verizon.

These wall street analysts want to drive up the stock to pad their pockets.
post #5 of 61
I actually don't think there will be another major upgrade until mid-2012... only because that's how the 3G worked, and all the people that just bought the iPhone 4 will still be in their 2 year contract.
post #6 of 61
I wouldn't go get all hot and bothered about this rumor until something more concrete is known. How many times have we heard a rumor that Verizon is coming? I don't think it is even breathing hard yet!
post #7 of 61
"Similar speculation has emerged before, so barring independent confirmation or a press release from one of the parties, it'd be rash to pop the champagne," he wrote. "Still, it's worth considering the potential implications."

In other words, nothing to see here. This article means absolutely nothing.

Oh, and 2 million more phones sold? Great, but we have availability issues as it is now.
post #8 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by iancass79 View Post

Heeeeere we go again! Believe it when I see it.

Verizon is definitely better, but they rape your wallet for it. Two power hungry companies, IMO, can't work together either. Att bent over for the iPhone. I don't see verizon doing that.

My opinion, other companies will get it. Not CDMA verizon.

These wall street analysts want to drive up the stock to pad their pockets.



"...att bent over for the iPhone..."

I don't agree with that at all.
post #9 of 61
If Apple really wants to sell phones, they will make phone available to Verizon before the holidays. Verizon could sell several million in December alone.
post #10 of 61
The obvious option would be to expand it first onto T-Mobile though. why are analysts so insistent that Apple doesn't like easy money if they simply swapped GSM chips to support the 1700 Mhz band on the iPhone? With all the things that Verizon is, this marriage is highly unlikely. Given that Verizon would like to lock down its customers' experience...
post #11 of 61
Another rumor not worth discussing.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #12 of 61
I hate to stir the waters but given all the facts of late, I'm almost a believer of the January Verizon iPhone. Here's why:
  1. AT&T doesn't get 'inspired', nor does it offer freebies for no good reason - for this, I'm convinced that the move to allow newer subscribers to upgrade to the iPhone 4 is a last ditch effort to sign as many 2 year contracts as possible.
  2. Apple tries to stay on a release schedule, but has been known to update products on a whim if the market pushes hard enough. It's my opinion that Apple would gladly release a 'tweaked' version of the iPhone 4 to sell on the Verizon network, especially if that means doubling their selling power overnight.
  3. 2011 marks the 4 year mark for the Apple/AT&T relationshit... Since the US works on 2 year contracts, it would seem logical that the original exclusivity deal was for 2 full contract terms (or 4 years).
  4. Apple has publically rediculed AT&T several times over this last year - they are in just as much of a hurry to get away from AT&T as you are.
  5. Apple is liberally leaking documents that suggest the exclusivity will last, at least, another year - a typical misdirection move (or legitimate cause for concern).
post #13 of 61
Oh yeah, 12M iPhones which loose signal strength when held in hand. Am nervously waiting to see if the iPhone i ordered for will have similar signal reception issues or not. It would be nice if apple concentrates more on this issue first.
post #14 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

And from a strategic standpoint, Yainer said he believes it makes sense, as adding Verizon would "significantly blunt the competitive threat" from Google's Android mobile operating system.

And to me, this is why the iPhone isn't coming to Verizon any time soon. I'd wager the insulation from government meddling because of "anti-trust" issues is worth far more than the sales of a device they can't make enough of anyway.

Quote:
Since last year, Verizon has worked closely with Google to offer some of the best Android devices in an effort to compete with the iPhone.

And yet Android is still nowhere near the overall experience of the iPhone. Too many competing interests and no clearnfocus/goal will ensure that Android will always have impressive checklists of features, yet always feel lacking compared to the iPhone in overall user experience.

The real irony is since everyone can get Android and molest it to their hearts content, their is little incentive for some to try to build the Apple model around Android. How would you differentiate yourself from the "isn't that just another Android phone"?
post #15 of 61
My guess is that this rumor is being spread by Verizon's marketing department to keep people from switching to AT&T to get the iPhone 4.
post #16 of 61
If the iPhone goes to Verizon it going to be the modern day Custer's Last Stand, the last hurrah of the iPhone before it gets overtaken and made a niche product by the android army.
post #17 of 61
iPhone on verizon in 2012 as LTE. until then it's all Blah Blah Blah Blah with the only grain of salt being the early upgrades for 3GS customers.

6/2012 makes sense with the Apple/AT&T 5 year contract, with the rollout of LTE, and with the production of one model [i think] - there will still be legacy networks that will need handled - 3g on both GSM and CDMA. [someone please correct me if i'm wrong, as i'm not an expert on Cellular legacy network compatibility mumbo jumbo]

imagine that - someone posting that they're NOT an expert on something.
post #18 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by lilgto64 View Post

With LTE right around the corner - and Verizon recently joining the GSMA board - I would think that some sort of LTE compatible iPhone mid year 2011 is more likely - that way production and sales of the next gen iPhone could coincide with the deployment of LTE - just a matter of synchronizing those two schedules - and perhaps in part AT&Ts plans to move to LTE.

An LTE only iPhone is years away. An LTE phone from Verizon would also have to support CDMA.
post #19 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by Inklings2 View Post

If Apple really wants to sell phones, they will make phone available to Verizon before the holidays. Verizon could sell several million in December alone.

I guess selling 1.7 million phones in the first week or so shows no interest in selling hardware.

Could be that adding Verizon customer base would be bad publicity since the shortages and wait times would double unless manufacturing could also be doubled.

Then again there is something to be said for having a market where your product is in demand and commanding a premium as opposed to warehouses full of product that needs to be given away to make room for the over production. Not good for business to have 20 million units available on day 1 and only 12 million interested customers.
post #20 of 61
The biggest reason I don't see Verizon getting the iPhone in the near future is the fact that Apple has not made an surge of hiring CDMA engineers (which would be covered by the tech media). I actually believe that there are CDMA iPhones somewhere in a lab on the Apple campus, but there's no way that these prototypes are near steady state production quality. For Apple to reach that level, they would need to hire a bunch of people specialized in CDMA phone design and implementation.

The technological challenges aren't insurmountable (simultaneous voice-data can be achieved with SV-DO -- and apparently Qualcomm has an SV-DO chip that's waiting for a handset). Apple simply isn't staffed with enough people to make the Verizon iPhone in six months. They are straining to make their own internal product release schedules. iPad was slightly late and the iPhone 4 is arguably still half-baked.

Secondly, the fact that the Verizon iPhone rumors have been continuing at breakneck pace is also an strong indication that they are not getting the iPhone soon. Apple's business partners clam up real tight when there's a deal in the works. There are far too many blabbermouths (including Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg) for any of these rumors (some of them patently ludicrous) to have any weight.

Expanding iPhone to T-Mobile USA is a far more likely next step for Apple. Adding a 3G chip that can handle T-Mobile's unique AWS frequency is relatively easy. T-Mobile has been quite happy over the years to have jailbroken iPhones on its network (no 3G data, just EDGE). T-Mobile's silence makes them a far more serious candidate to be the next American iPhone carrier than Verizon with their tsunami of silly rumors.
post #21 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by bartfat View Post

With all the things that Verizon is, this marriage is highly unlikely. Given that Verizon would like to lock down its customers' experience...

I disagree to some extent. When it comes to the smartphones Verizon doesn't touch the software all that much, especially in the case of Android. That is more in the hands of the manufacturer of the phone (which has it's own problems).

The only annoying thing that Verizon does is throw their logo onto the phone wherever they can (I have a big Verizon logo on both the front and back of my Moto Droid).

I'm sure Verizon would want a huge logo somewhere on their iPhone, but Apple would never allow for that.
post #22 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by slynke View Post

If the iPhone goes to Verizon it going to be the modern day Custer's Last Stand, the last hurrah of the iPhone before it gets overtaken and made a niche product by the android army.

it would be a niche product that i would happily use. Kinda like my MacPro, Macbook pro, or the dozen apple computers i've had before them. although i do have 77 shares hoping that Apple unleashes the iPhone on all carriers soon, so that it's market share can match the iPod.
post #23 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChronoFlare View Post

The only annoying thing that Verizon does is throw their logo onto the phone wherever they can (I have a big Verizon logo on both the front and back of my Moto Droid).

I'm sure Verizon would want a huge logo somewhere on their iPhone, but Apple would never allow for that.

For all the technical/business reasons why Apple could not/would not create a phone for Verizon, I think the biggest barrier is Verizon themselves. Does anyone really think Verizon would be totally 100% hands off the hardware, software, advertising? Does anyone think Jobs would settle for less from Verizon?
post #24 of 61
This is the most likely scenario. After all, Apple allegedly pitched the iPhone originally to Verizon before they partnered with AT&T. My guess is that the two of them couldn't come to agreement on business terms (and haven't been able to since). There's probably a business development person at Apple who contacts Verizon Wireless once a month asking if they're interested.

It's not like Apple isn't capable of designing and building a CDMA-based iPhone (my guess is that there are dozens of CDMA iPhone prototypes in Apple's labs).

Jobs isn't going to cede control to Verizon. He didn't and he won't. Verizon needs to play by Apple's rules if they want the iPhone. Remember, Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg was practically begging for the iPhone a couple of months ago.
post #25 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

The biggest reason I don't see Verizon getting the iPhone in the near future is the fact that Apple has not made an surge of hiring CDMA engineers (which would be covered by the tech media). I actually believe that there are CDMA iPhones somewhere in a lab on the Apple campus, but there's no way that these prototypes are near steady state production quality. For Apple to reach that level, they would need to hire a bunch of people specialized in CDMA phone design and implementation.
........
Expanding iPhone to T-Mobile USA is a far more likely next step for Apple. Adding a 3G chip that can handle T-Mobile's unique AWS frequency is relatively easy. T-Mobile has been quite happy over the years to have jailbroken iPhones on its network (no 3G data, just EDGE). T-Mobile's silence makes them a far more serious candidate to be the next American iPhone carrier than Verizon with their tsunami of silly rumors.

I agree. With the focus on continued updates to the iPad/iPhone and iOS, I can't see the need for or resources for adding CDMA for the short-term (4 years).
A better use of engineers would be on continual improvements to the iPhone/iPad.

The lack of carrier choice does need to be addressed in the US, but t-mobile is a much easier choice for that especially considering their new 5-frequency GSM chips.
post #26 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by JupiterOne View Post

For all the technical/business reasons why Apple could not/would not create a phone for Verizon, I think the biggest barrier is Verizon themselves. Does anyone really think Verizon would be totally 100% hands off the hardware, software, advertising? Does anyone think Jobs would settle for less from Verizon?

That's very true. I hadn't thought about the fact that AT&T basically does no advertising for the iPhone, whereas Verizon would probably want to run it's own ad campaign. It would also change their current advertising campaign a great deal.

I think Verizon could stay off of the software for the most part, but they might try to squeeze in their own hardware requests that Apple would likely refuse. Verizon severely locks down their basic hum-dum cellphones, but there is nothing in the software of my Android device that would suggest that it's a Verizon device (apart from the "Droid eye" at bootup).

Then again, AT&T has specific things that they like to keep off their network for certain amounts of time as well (MMS, Facetime, tethering). All of these companies start to look the same in the end.
post #27 of 61
Quote:
or just the fear of a possible Verizon deal could have inspired AT&T.

AT&T know full well when their deal expires, so their reasoning for locking people in would not be out of 'fear' of something 'maybe' happening, it would be because they know.

The real question is whether or not Verizon and Apple can work together, because from what I know of Verizon, they like to be at the wheel, not on the back seat.

I still think a deal with T-Mobile and/or Sprint is more likely.

Do not overrate what you have received, nor envy others.
15" Matte MacBook Pro: 2.66Ghz i7, 8GB RAM, GT330m 512MB, 512GB SSD

iPhone 5 Black 32GB

iPad 3rd Generation, 32GB

Mac Mini Core2Duo 2.26ghz,...

Reply

Do not overrate what you have received, nor envy others.
15" Matte MacBook Pro: 2.66Ghz i7, 8GB RAM, GT330m 512MB, 512GB SSD

iPhone 5 Black 32GB

iPad 3rd Generation, 32GB

Mac Mini Core2Duo 2.26ghz,...

Reply
post #28 of 61
Someone should chart the timing of these Verizon rumors. I'm starting to wonder if they happen just to help pop the stock after certain bad day so people can buy and then swoop in and make some quick cash.

AppleInsider, that woud be a great story to research. Verizon rumor to Apple stock pop ratio. Apple is down $10. If someone help it quickly recover they can be in and out quickly with some cash on hand all for merely hinting the same old thing.

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

Reply

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

Reply
post #29 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by Booga View Post

My guess is that this rumor is being spread by Verizon's marketing department to keep people from switching to AT&T to get the iPhone 4.

Could be aimed at fence sitters, but should have happened before the launch weekend.
post #30 of 61
Dear Verizon:

You have a great network. And I would love to have an iPhone that could make phone calls.

But please! Shit or get off the pot.

Thank you for your attention.
post #31 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

The impact for Apple would be huge, he believes, adding at least 12 million additional iPhone sales in the U.S. annually.

Is this factoring in the people who would leave AT&T?
Apple would not gain a sale, it would simply be sold via a different carrier.
post #32 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

A Veriz-z-z-z

-z-z-z-z.... Nothing more sleep-inducing than rehashing old speculative rumors ... over, and over, and over...
post #33 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerseymac View Post

Could be aimed at fence sitters, but should have happened before the launch weekend.

It did. And the week before that. And the week before that. And the week...

There have been non-stop iPhone on Verizon rumors for years. If they keep saying it enough, someday they will be correct.

My best guess is that Apple will offer unlocked and unsubsidized LTE iPhones in the US market starting in June or July 2012, much like they do in other countries with no exclusive contracts today. It is remotely possible for summer 2011, but they would be one of the first LTE handsets and I am not sure Apple will bet on an early chip. By summer 2012, I would also expect Verizon to have pretty good LTE coverage and VoLTE rolled out, so you will be able to use an LTE iPhone on Verizon without the need for a CDMA fallback. The coverage will not be as good as a LTE/CDMA hybrid, but it may be pretty close if Verizon is agressive with their 700 mhz rollout. If it happens in 2011, you will likely need a CDMA chip.
post #34 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChronoFlare View Post

I disagree to some extent. When it comes to the smartphones Verizon doesn't touch the software all that much, especially in the case of Android. That is more in the hands of the manufacturer of the phone (which has it's own problems).

Only because the success of the iPhone. The first Blackberry on Verizon to get wifi didn't ship until a year after the first iPhone. It's always amusing when Verizon proponents decry Apple for being closed - what a short and selective memory they have
post #35 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocNo42 View Post

Only because the success of the iPhone. The first Blackberry on Verizon to get wifi didn't ship until a year after the first iPhone. It's always amusing when Verizon proponents decry Apple for being closed - what a short and selective memory they have

Not sure that I ever said I was a proponent of Verizon, or that I thought Apple was being closed....

I am a Verizon subscriber, but that has more to do with work/everyone else I talk to having Verizon. Though, admittedly, I've driven to several areas where people with AT&T have little to no signal, and especially no 3G, and I have full bars 3G (rural areas). For that, I am grateful.

I've had other smartphones with Verizon that weren't locked down, before the iPhone.
post #36 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by Inklings2 View Post

If Apple really wants to sell phones, they will make phone available to Verizon before the holidays. Verizon could sell several million in December alone.

AT&T must have said... NO

imo AT&T exchanged a shorter iphone exclusivity for the Ipad launch with AT&T only.
post #37 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by jacob1varghese View Post

I agree. With the focus on continued updates to the iPad/iPhone and iOS, I can't see the need for or resources for adding CDMA for the short-term (4 years).
A better use of engineers would be on continual improvements to the iPhone/iPad.

The lack of carrier choice does need to be addressed in the US, but t-mobile is a much easier choice for that especially considering their new 5-frequency GSM chips.

Oddly enough, MacRumors is reporting today that Apple recently (before the iPhone 4 launch) posted a number of job listings, including eight related to RF and antenna engineering. This is good news for the future of the iDevice lineups.

Apple asked the FCC for a 45-day(?) blackout period concerning FCC registration documents. There's a slight chance that the iPhone 4 has the 5-frequency 3G chip and may be poised to release the handset on T-Mobile USA in the not-too-distant future.

Hmmm, I've waited this long for the iPhone, perhaps I can wait a few more months to see if it shows up on T-Mobile (I get pretty good T-Mobile reception at home whereas AT&T is useless inside my place).
post #38 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by AIaddict View Post

By summer 2012, I would also expect Verizon to have pretty good LTE coverage and VoLTE rolled out, so you will be able to use an LTE iPhone on Verizon without the need for a CDMA fallback. The coverage will not be as good as a LTE/CDMA hybrid, but it may be pretty close if Verizon is agressive with their 700 mhz rollout.

So you think Verizon can basically build out enough new infrastructure in two years to at least match AT&T?

Based on what?

Also remember that the GSM based LTE technology Verizon will be moving to doest carry as well as CDMA so they will need more towers - and getting new tower sites is non-trivial on multiple levels.

If verizon eliminates the need for CDMA in 80% of their current coverage area in five years from their first LTE deployment I will be amazed. And that's probably laughably aggressive.
post #39 of 61
what he did not factor in that the all the phones Apple sold to AT&T when to the same few customers like my wife she on her 3rd iphone, so they did not add her 3 times, I highly doubt VZ customer will by 12M iphones in 1 year maybe over 3 yrs.
post #40 of 61
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChronoFlare View Post

Not sure that I ever said I was a proponent of Verizon, or that I thought Apple was being closed....

I never said you were. I probably should have spaced the comment out to indicate it was more a general observation.
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: iPhone
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPhone › Verizon could sell 12M iPhones a year, but don't 'pop the champagne'