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post #41 of 60
7/1/10 at 12:49pm
The stock may eventually hit these projected numbers, but it will be due to the rapid decrease in the value of the dollar.

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post #42 of 60
7/1/10 at 1:07pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

The stock may eventually hit these projected numbers, but it will be due to the rapid decrease in the value of the dollar.

This is an interesting point. During much of the 2000s, the (real) depreciation of the US$ against major foreign currencies had a favorable impact on Apple's reported earnings because of the increasingly substantial export income. Stock prices of many companies in the tech sector (e.g., Intel IBM, HP, MSFT) were helped along by this.

In the past few months - mostly since the beginning of the Greek crisis - the US$ has appreciated substantially (again, in real terms). This will impact Apple's reported earnings negatively, at least in the short run and perhaps through much of 2010. By how much, is impossible to say.

So, yes, it will probably take another bout of US$ depreciation to make the dollar-denominated earnings numbers look even better!
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post #43 of 60
7/1/10 at 1:38pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by krreagan View Post

Wow! 2 years to climb well over 100%! That _is_ overwhelming pessimism!? \

[/sarcasm]

KRR

Uh, no. Two years to get back to where it was, with a trip to $70 in between.

Such short memories people have. Already they've forgotten the months of panic that cut most stock portfolios valuations by half or more.
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post #44 of 60
7/1/10 at 1:49pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Uh, no. Two years to get back to where it was, with a trip to $70 in between.

Such short memories people have. Already they've forgotten the months of panic that cut most stock portfolios valuations by half or more.

It was $70, what... 4 years ago? I honestly can't imagine a scenario where they hit $70 again. Even if Mr. Jobs quit, or worse. The company has far more going for it now, with solid, proven revenue streams.

If it suffers along with the rest of the market in a double-dip scenario, perhaps it sinks to $80 or $90... which would be my signal to sink the remainder of my cash into AAPL.

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post #45 of 60
7/1/10 at 1:49pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleStud View Post

Yes, but you forget how Apple performed through the depths of the recession. Now that we're looking towards recovery, you somehow think they'll perform worse? This stock was recession-proof. Blowout quarter after blowout quarter.

Profitability continued to grow, but the stock tanked anyway -- so forget "recession proof" stocks, they don't exist. Whether we're headed towards recovery is very much an open question.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GQB View Post

Actually, that drop was mostly related to Steve's health. Overall, AAPL greatly outperformed the market. Apple benefits from a flight to quality every time.

No, it wasn't, and no, it didn't. AAPL got swamped along with everything else as the worldwide economy fell apart. At the bottom, AAPL had declined almost precisely in line with the declines in the broader markets. I guess you had to be there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleStud View Post

Apple is not immune to the swings of the larger market, as there is a herd-mentality that governs much of the market. The fundamental performance of the company has been flawless during this time, though. That's the sign to watch for, as it implies the stock will correct itself (upward, of course) once the jitters are shaken from the market.

It sounds like you can't agree with yourself. Collectively, the markets are expressing deep concern with the direction of the recovery. As before, the fundamentals of any one company don't matter much if the markets decide that the economic future looks bleak. The good gets thrown out with the bad.
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post #46 of 60
7/1/10 at 1:54pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

It was $70, what... 4 years ago? I honestly can't imagine a scenario where they hit $70 again. Even if Mr. Jobs quit, or worse. The company has far more going for it now, with solid, proven revenue streams.

No. It was at $70 at the bottom of the big market selloff in early 2009. I'm not imagining that scenario either. That wasn't the point. I was responding to the person who apparently did not know that AAPL first hit $200 at the end of 2007 and didn't get back to that level again for nearly two years, with a trip to $70 in between.
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post #47 of 60
7/1/10 at 1:55pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Profitability continued to grow, but the stock tanked anyway -- so forget "recession proof" stocks, they don't exist. Whether we're headed towards recovery is very much an open question.

It's quite possible that we'll have a double-dip scenario, given that the financial recovery is a scam. The billions being pumped into the market has a very recognizable signature effect on stock prices and a simple review of the past year will reveal like ups and downs in stocks almost across the board. What has been happening in the markets is just plain criminal mischief driven by politics.

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post #48 of 60
7/1/10 at 2:00pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

No. It was at $70 at the bottom of the big market selloff in early 2009. I'm not imagining that scenario either. That wasn't the point. I was responding to the person who apparently did not know that AAPL first hit $200 at the end of 2007 and didn't get back to that level again for nearly two years, with a trip to $70 in between.

I see, however the $70 you reference must have been an intraday level, because I found no evidence of it in the closing prices.

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post #49 of 60
7/1/10 at 2:03pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Absolutely.

What is interesting, however, is that the forward P/E of Apple at the current price is less than 16 (the 'consensus' estimate for Apple's forward EPS is ~$14).

I say 'interesting,' because 16 is not a terribly high number for a company like Apple (as you probably know, the P/E of the S&P500 has averaged 15-16 in the past century).

You're right, it's a relatively low forward P/E for a company which is growing earnings on the order of 15% per year. Forward P/E for growing companies is nearly always going to be lower than trailing P/E. When they get close together, as is the case now, you have to wonder what the markets are saying about future growth potential. The easiest way to read this is as pessimism about the likelihood of the story continuing.
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post #50 of 60
7/1/10 at 2:10pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

It's quite possible that we'll have a double-dip scenario, given that the financial recovery is a scam. The billions being pumped into the market has a very recognizable signature effect on stock prices and a simple review of the past year will reveal like ups and downs in stocks almost across the board. What has been happening in the markets is just plain criminal mischief driven by politics.

Hey, whatever. I remember the shape of things late in 2008 and well into 2009. (I may be middle-aged but I'm not senile!) I'm not happy about how we got there, or how we escaped the total collapse of the banking system, but I'm also not going to pretend that we had a world of choices in the matter.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

I see, however the $70 you reference must have been an intraday level, because I found no evidence of it in the closing prices.

Maybe, I don't precisely recall. It was in the neighborhood of $70 briefly and well below $100 for many weeks.
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post #51 of 60
7/1/10 at 2:40pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

No. It was at $70 at the bottom of the big market selloff in early 2009. I'm not imagining that scenario either. That wasn't the point. I was responding to the person who apparently did not know that AAPL first hit $200 at the end of 2007 and didn't get back to that level again for nearly two years, with a trip to $70 in between.


Jan 20 2009 low and close 78 and change so not quite 70 certainly in the ballpark.
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post #52 of 60
7/1/10 at 3:21pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveGee View Post

Jan 20 2009 low and close 78 and change so not quite 70 certainly in the ballpark.

Fair enough, thanks for the lookup. I seem to recall it getting closer to $70 during, if not at the end of, one of those awful trading sessions when the bottom was not in sight.
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post #53 of 60
7/1/10 at 3:36pm
I am surprised that AAPL shareholders don't demand dividends.
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post #54 of 60
7/1/10 at 4:12pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jetz View Post

I am surprised that AAPL shareholders don't demand dividends.

But we do. Uncle Steve gets asked about this at every annual shareholder's meeting. We are told to talk to the hand.
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post #55 of 60
7/1/10 at 4:16pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

That's very simple. Assuming 'cash' is worth 'cash' (perhaps not too bad of an assumption), the non-cash (i.e., the 'operating') part of Apple is worth $225B - $42B = $183B.

183B divided by 0.91B shares = $201 per share.

so apples real price is 200 a share???

cool beans

thank you
berry berry
much
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post #56 of 60
7/1/10 at 5:00pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by brucep View Post

so apples real price is 200 a share???

Sure, only you can't buy it for that price, unless maybe you are planning on buying the entire company.
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post #57 of 60
7/1/10 at 6:00pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Seriously, let's see how the economy plays out. In the current conditions, I don't see such a bullish case being made for any stock.

Agreed. So much can happen to the economy over the next year. Since we have absolutely no possible agreement between the two parties in Washington, and they no desire to work with each other, stalemate will be the rule of the day. And thus the economy and the people will suffer.

Thus, most likely consumer spending will be down, as jobs fail to materialize (of course simply put, they will not since most companies, Apple included, have all manufacturing done overseas) ie; if X company had its taxes lowered to 0% would they create jobs in the States? No. Just overseas. Higher profits. Simple.

If folks can't buy what you are selling because they have no money, the value of the stock will go down.
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post #58 of 60
7/1/10 at 8:01pm
Boy, it's nice to close out the week with some good news after all that antenna hullaballoo. Bullish stock outlook. iPhone 4 screen bests the competition. iPad expanding into China. Not all of Steve's emails were real.

Speaking of iPad. With Cisco and HP entering the arena, I hope Apple will accelerate the release of iPad 2, with front facing camera and other bits that will appeal to enterprise. They've got a nice head start, but need to consolidate their lead. Maybe it could be a Pro model? Sorta like the MacBook Pro is distinguished from the consumer lite model. Cut Cisco off at the knees.
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post #59 of 60
7/1/10 at 8:20pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aquatic View Post

PUMP AND DUMP.

These criminals should be in JAIL.

woot?
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post #60 of 60
7/1/10 at 9:03pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by merlinw View Post

Agreed. So much can happen to the economy over the next year. Since we have absolutely no possible agreement between the two parties in Washington, and they no desire to work with each other, stalemate will be the rule of the day. And thus the economy and the people will suffer.

Yeah, almost 35 years ago I gave up on political parties, because it was so obvious that they had given up on me. Partisan politics is orders of magnitude worse now. It's easy to despair because this is one of the times we really need our government to get its act together, but some in congress are simply opposed to the very idea.
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