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Rumor: Apple has built, tested CDMA iPhone, but no Verizon deal yet - Page 2

post #41 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Apple's motivation? An additional addressable market of 860 million and a more than 10% increase in market cap. If Apple can sell to 2% of that market, that's over 17 million additional phones sold. To put that into perspective, at $600 a pop, that's $10.2B in extra revenue. At a 20% profit margin and a (very conservative) P/E of 16x, that's over $30B in market cap, or an additional ~$33 per share. (Btw, the CDMA 1x is heavily concentrated in countries that wealthier than the global average; that's nothing to scoff at either).

That said, I am not sure it will happen, but that's because of other reasons.

That market is shrinking. Japan's NTT DoCoMo which now owns part of Tata is deploying 30 million more GSM subscribers in India, moving away from CDMA technologies.

In another year and a half, even more of their market will be shrinking.

Apple can target 500 Million GSM and climbing subscribers in China and increase it's market share 5 fold.
post #42 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by jsshapiro View Post

VZ (VERIZON) is as stingy as AAPL (APPLE) - Vcast for music and iTunes for music respectively they both want the $$$$ from the downloads.

And what's wrong with Verizon or Apple making money but if you implying that Verizon is holding out for part of the iTunes revenue you so wrong.

All of the new smart phones from Verizon have been wide open. On the Droid you can load your own music or get it from Amazon directly. If Verizon wants to compete all then have to do is to create an App for downloading from their store. If their prices are out of line then don't buy.
post #43 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hodar View Post

What a great hammer to use in negotiations with AT&T. Whether you intend to deploy it or not; simply bringing a functional Verizon based iPhone to the meeting would certainly give you a VERY strong negotiating position.

Apple will be targeting LTE in 2012. AT&T will no longer have the contract.

Apple's motivation is to target LTE, not CDMA and produce a single multi-band 3G and LTE aware product.

This pushes Verizon, AT&T and the rest to get LTE deployed rapidly.

We win.

Sticking to CDMA forces no one's hand, especially Verizon.
post #44 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hodar View Post

What a great hammer to use in negotiations with AT&T. Whether you intend to deploy it or not; simply bringing a functional Verizon based iPhone to the meeting would certainly give you a VERY strong negotiating position.

Plusity-plus-plus.

This, and having Robert Loggia sitting on your side at the negotiating table.
post #45 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by sflocal View Post

I'll see it when I believe it. However, if there is any kind of negotiations going on, I would bet my money that Verizon is still as arrogant as usual and is placing demands on Apple to cripple the phone in some fashion like it has with other phones in the past. It could also be an issue with Apple wanting total control over the phone and its App store. Something I know Verizon would hate.

CRIPPLE THE PHONE?

Damn people where do you keep getting this from. Verizon stopped crippling Smart Phones when they started shipping Androids. None of the new Smart Phones have been crippled.

CONTROL OVER THE APPS STORE?

Again where do you get this from? Verizon has no control over the Market Place for Android phones so there is no reason they would try to do that for Apples Apps store. On the Market place you can load any software you want. You can even load tethering apps and use them. It will be the same for Apple.

PLEASE STOP USING THAT VERY OLD LINE ABOUT VERIZON.
post #46 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dlux View Post

I wonder what the media reaction would have been if Gizmodo 'acquired' a CDMA test unit instead of the GSM unit.

That would have made for an interesting WWDC keynote speech.

The Gizmodo punks wouldn't know a CDMA iPhone if it crawled out of their pants.

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post #47 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

Sticking to CDMA forces no one's hand, especially Verizon.

No one says it has to be either-or. There are supposedly radio chips now or soon to be released (sorry, no source at the moment) that can support both GSM and CDMA, which could consolidate the product line if Apple used them.

And if Apple wants to expand to Verizon, they will need CDMA fall-back where LTE isn't yet deployed. Again, this is all a stopgap solution, but for the next five years or so CDMA isn't going away, while LTE coverage will be incomplete.

Those who don't like compromises shouldn't be in a business where other parties control some portion of the technology. But the reality has been spelled out numerous times in this thread alone: Apple is leaving money on the table by not supporting more US carriers. And I, even as a non-Verizon customer, like the prospects simply because it will light another fire under AT&T's ass.
post #48 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kyahx View Post

Has no one seen this??

New user: zero dollars.

First post: zero dollars.

Photoshopped picture? Priceless.
post #49 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by wprowe View Post

Given the movement to LTE all around the world, how much would it really benefit Apple at this point to deploy a CDMA compatible phone? It seems the lifespan of such a phone would be short, a year or two at the most. Perhaps Apple would be grateful for that because those customers would buy a new phone that is LTE compatible, thus driving up sales for Apple.

It's about getting the new smartphone customer before Android does. Android's loyalty rates are nearly has high as the iPhone's. It would be far easier and cheaper to get that customer first, rather than try to convince them to switch 2-3 years from now after they've invested in Android accessories and applications.

As to the lifespan of a CDMA phone, CDMA will be around for a LONG time before it will be switched off for good. So any Verizon phone will need to support CDMA for at least the next 4-6 years, I'd guess. I could see Apple skipping a CDMA-only iPhone and go straight to a CDMA+LTE iPhone for January. By then Verizon will have deployed LTE in the major cities. And also by then Verizon could be well on their way to upgrading their CDMA network to support simultaneous voice+data, if they choose. The hardware for that is supposed to be available this summer.
post #50 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dlux View Post

I wonder what the media reaction would have been if Gizmodo 'acquired' a CDMA test unit instead of the GSM unit.

That would have made for an interesting WWDC keynote speech.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SockRolid View Post

The Gizmodo punks wouldn't know a CDMA iPhone if it crawled out of their pants.

Correct.

The bozos at Gizmodo didn't even lift the EMI shielding from the Redwood City iPhone prototype. Unless Apple had a neon-colored sticker that said "this is a CDMA phone", Gizmodo would have been clueless.
post #51 of 69
That's the title of an Arstechnica article from October '09, and Verizon's CEO Ivan Seidenberg is quoted as saying:

"We obviously would be interested at any point in the future that they would be interested in having us as a partner," Seidenberg told analysts during a conference call to discuss Verizon's third-quarter earnings. "This is a decision that is exclusively in Apples court."

Of course, Seidenberg could have been bullshitting just to keep investors happy-ish. Anyway, here's the full article:

http://arstechnica.com/apple/news/20...ples-court.ars

Technologically, both GSM and CDMA will be obsolete in 3 or 4 years thereabouts. So why would Apple want to ship another iPhone that uses dead-end technology? Because they could gross $7 billion per year while 4G is rolled out, tested, debugged, tweaked, ramped up in speed, deployed to major metropolitan areas, debugged further, then gradually becomes mainstream:

http://www.businessinsider.com/apple...analyst-2010-6

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post #52 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Apple's motivation? An additional addressable market of 860 million and a more than 10% increase in market cap. If Apple can sell to 2% of that market, that's over 17 million additional phones sold. To put that into perspective, at $600 a pop, that's $10.2B in extra revenue. At a 20% profit margin and a (very conservative) P/E of 16x, that's over $30B in market cap, or an additional ~$33 per share. (Btw, the CDMA 1x is heavily concentrated in countries that wealthier than the global average; that's nothing to scoff at either).

That said, I am not sure it will happen, but that's because of other reasons.

I mentioned this in another thread. In Anadtech's review of iPhone 4 they mentioned that offering a VZ iphone makes sense because the iPhone is now an advertising platform with iAd. More subs enhances the value of that service.
post #53 of 69
These rumors and rumors of rumors are so damn frustrating. I didn't start getting interested in a smartphone until about a year ago. Improved cameras, easier internet capability, longer life batteries and increased storage for apps and music offer a capability that I currently get from a separate phone, iPod Touch and camera. The iPhone isn't the only device that provides those capabilities. My preference in using iTunes and iPhoto led me to hold out in hopes of getting an iPhone through Verizon. But my willingness to wait much longer is fading. What I don't understand is why Apple and Verizon spokespeople can't just tell their potential customers what their plans are with regards to the iPhone. Personally, I will wait until January. After that, I will get off the pot. This "will they or won't they" game isn't fun anymore. I wonder how many other iPhone hopefuls feel the way I do? Is your patience running as thin as mine?
post #54 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by BartBuzz View Post

What I don't understand is why Apple and Verizon spokespeople can't just tell their potential customers what their plans are with regards to the iPhone. Personally, I will wait until January. After that, I will get off the pot. This "will they or won't they" game isn't fun anymore. I wonder how many other iPhone hopefuls feel the way I do? Is your patience running as thin as mine?

There's probably no deal yet, which is why they won't talk about it. Apple doesn't make forward looking statements.

I feel your frustration.

I'm hoping that the iPhone 4 will come to T-Mobile USA's network (I get far better reception on T-Mobile than AT&T at home). Like you, I will probably wait through early next year, then acquiesce and sign with AT&T. Someday, iPhone 4 will come to T-Mobile USA, I am sure of it. (T-Mobile subsidiaries are already approved iPhone carriers in many European markets.)

Oh well... (sighs)
post #55 of 69
Quote:
What I don't understand is why Apple and Verizon spokespeople can't just tell their potential customers what their plans are with regards to the iPhone. Personally, I will wait until January. After that, I will get off the pot. This "will they or won't they" game isn't fun anymore. I wonder how many other iPhone hopefuls feel the way I do? Is your patience running as thin as mine?

Well my patience ran thin after the Droid came out. I held out with a dumb-phone for over 2 years waiting...and waiting....and waiting...(I was not going to get WinMo or BB, which is all VZ offered before the Droid in terms of smartphones)...and then I simply waited no more. I got the Droid and I've been relatively happy with it, though I would trade it for an iPhone in an instant--Android has a couple of features the iPhone doesn't but the seamlessness of the iPhone UI is simply unbeatable. I got a 1 year contract for 70 bucks more and I think it was worth it not to be tied for 2 years just in case....and Android apps are not as good so I've only bought a few, so I am not invested in the platform...but the longer it takes for Apple to unchain itself from ATT the more other people will become invested in their Android apps...and those people likely won't get one by the time it comes out.
post #56 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

I am sure Steve and company are thinking Globally.

The problem is, the GSM market is growing rapidly and CDMA versions are shrinking rapidly.

http://www.gsmworld.com/newsroom/mar...ta_summary.htm

Worldwide Phones: 4,310,295,611
GSM: 3,450,410,548
CDMA2000 1X: 309,907,068
CDMA2000 1xEV-DO: 118,688,849
CDMA2000 1xEV-DO Rev. A : 12,644,062
WCDMA: 255,630,141
WCDMA HSPA: 133,286,097

What's Apple's motivation?

Looking at these numbers I can't tell if the the CDMA2000 users should be added together or if the new CDMA2000 tech is simply a subset of the previous one. IOW, are the 12M EV-DO Rev. A users also included as part of the EV-DO users who are all part of the CDM2000 1X users?


Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Apple's motivation? An additional addressable market of 860 million and a more than 10% increase in market cap. If Apple can sell to 2% of that market, that's over 17 million additional phones sold. To put that into perspective, at $600 a pop, that's $10.2B in extra revenue. At a 20% profit margin and a (very conservative) P/E of 16x, that's over $30B in market cap, or an additional ~$33 per share. (Btw, the CDMA 1x is heavily concentrated in countries that wealthier than the global average; that's nothing to scoff at either).

That said, I am not sure it will happen, but that's because of other reasons.

But if they can only make x-many phones and they can sell that many without making a CDMA or a TD-SCDMA (China Mobile, only) phone then there is no point. They have 13 less countries to sell the iPhone 4 then they did last year for the 3GS, but the sales are way up as well as the demand. If a new phone comes it'll have to be a mid-year release, I'd think.


Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

That market is shrinking. Japan's NTT DoCoMo which now owns part of Tata is deploying 30 million more GSM subscribers in India, moving away from CDMA technologies.

In another year and a half, even more of their market will be shrinking.

That's true, a lot of CDMA '2G' networks have moved to UMTS/W-CDMA for '3G', completely bypassing CDMA2000 '3G'. Others that adopted CDMA2000 have converted to or added UMTS/W-CDMA.

Quote:
Apple can target 500 Million GSM and climbing subscribers in China and increase it's market share 5 fold.

500 Million GSM subs in China is old data, it's actually over 700M at this point. China Mobile's June numbers will push it over 550M by itself. Note that number is only for '2G', for '3G' China Mobile is using their homegrown TD-SCDMA network based off W-CDMA* which uses the same UTMS air-interface.


This brings up an interesting scenario...

How fast is China moving into '3G' and smartphone consumption. If they are moving fast enough and they are buying enough phones and is China Mobile is willing to play ball with Apple as an older AI article suggests* it might be in Apple's best interest to make a GSM/TD-SCDMA iPhone over a CDMA/CDMA2000 iPhone. They get to reuse the '2G' chips and TD-SCDMA (and TD-HSDPA andTD-LTE) will be around much longer than CDMA and CDMA2000.

We might say that they'd never choose another country before the US, but that is exactly what they have done with the iPhone 4. They added the frequency spectrum of Japan's NTT docomo to their '3G' penta-basnd chip over the operating band to make it work with T-Mobile USA. It's still not listed on the Tech Specs and there is still no word of the #1 NTT docomo as as carrier, only the #3, SoftBank, but according to the FCC, it's there. Whatever the reason, they clearly ignored a US carrier in favour of China's neighbor.


* Same as iPhone's '3G'. W-CDMA is not CDMA or CDMA2000 like you find on Verizon or Sprint.
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post #57 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Apple's motivation? An additional addressable market of 860 million and a more than 10% increase in market cap. If Apple can sell to 2% of that market, that's over 17 million additional phones sold. To put that into perspective, at $600 a pop, that's $10.2B in extra revenue. At a 20% profit margin and a (very conservative) P/E of 16x, that's over $30B in market cap, or an additional ~$33 per share. (Btw, the CDMA 1x is heavily concentrated in countries that wealthier than the global average; that's nothing to scoff at either).

That said, I am not sure it will happen, but that's because of other reasons.

november steve will tell us jan 15 we will have a verizon ios4.5
along with a major china roll out

will the ipad get the face to face or not ??
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post #58 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kyahx View Post

Has no one seen this??


Snapshot+photoshop+photos=FAKE
post #59 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by SockRolid View Post

The Gizmodo punks wouldn't know a CDMA iPhone if it crawled out of their pants.

They're not that stupid. It doesn't take a scientist to realize theres no SIM tray. I get you don't like Gizmodo, but tbh statements like that make you come off real arrogant and fanboyish. Not trying to insult you, just trying to be helpful.
post #60 of 69
Pictures or it didn't happen.

I am too tired of these lame and inaccurate rumors.

Digitimes should be shut down for its load of garbage.
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post #61 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Masterz1337 View Post

Snapshot+photoshop+photos=FAKE

Likely, but it's possible to change your carrier name on the iPhone, even without a jailbreak.
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post #62 of 69
It is my personal belief that the iPhone may finally be making its way to Verizon in January 2011. It makes perfect sense from a business standpoint for Apple to make a CDMA version of the iPhone. Unfortunately, the market has become saturated and there can be little growth in the future unless Apple can get another source of income. While the advanced sales of the iPhone 4 in the U.S. have been great, the simple fact is that those were customers upgrading from the 3G taking advantage of AT&T's "generous" upgrade opportunity.

With all the talk about both AT&T and Verizon making the move to LTE, both carriers will still need a back-up. I can remember when AT&T lost 3G service for two days in my neck of the woods and the system had to revert back to the 2G system. Although CDMA is on the way out, it's not going to be clicked off overnight as it will have to serve as a back-up. I'm not saying that Verizon is perfect, but it will make a good addition to Apple's sales.
post #63 of 69
This story is correct but so is Bloomberg.
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post #64 of 69
If apple is smart they should go with sprint but build a phone that uses their 4G network and also build in a hotspot. So like the evo. Android is gaining ground at sprint and this would take that advantage away. I live in a 4G city and I got to tell you, after playing with an evo 4G demo phone at a sprint store I'm so stoked. Android phones would be great at sprint if they had better battery life and if the android marketplace had the same apps the iPhone has. That is android's biggest issue. It's still very useable and with froyo android phones on sprint with 4G and their awesome calling plans pose as very strong competition to apple


I have never seen or used android before getting to play with this phone. If they could clean up the GUI, Add OS support for more media file formats like .pls , make the GUI the same across the board and really get iPhone app devs to port all their apps to android, with sprint's 4G service and hotspot and add full flash support and you will finally have an iPhone killer. I was going to buy an iPhone but now I am seriously considering a sprint 4G android phone. With verizon you get another nickel and dime cellular Nazi albeit with a better network for reception.

iPads with 4g support would also be cool at sprint.
post #65 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kyahx View Post

Has no one seen this??


That would be incredibly easy to fake..
post #66 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

Correct.

The bozos at Gizmodo didn't even lift the EMI shielding from the Redwood City iPhone prototype. Unless Apple had a neon-colored sticker that said "this is a CDMA phone", Gizmodo would have been clueless.

Actually it would be really easy to tell. The absence of a SIM card would've been a sure sign. BTW Apple doesn't need to build a totally new phone. RIM has been making "world phones" for quite some time now. They have both CDMA and quad band GSM radios in them. The Storm is an example of one. The very first videos of the Storm2 had it working over ATT not VZW.
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post #67 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

At a 20% profit margin and a (very conservative) P/E of 16x, that's over $30B in market cap, or an additional ~$33 per share. (Btw, the CDMA 1x is heavily concentrated in countries that wealthier than the global average; that's nothing to scoff at either).

No one with a financial education prices a stock based on PE. Earnings are way way too easy to manipulate and often do not represent the actual cash flow available to the shareholder. P/E numbers are how smart Wall Street people and their CNBC buddies scam average investors. The real value of the stock is based on the future cash flows, and the expectation that an LTE iPhone wil be available on multiple carries sometime around 2012 has been long built into the Apple stock price. Moving the date up a year will increase the value of the stock, but not by $33 per share.

I would estimate the profit potential of a Verizon CDMA phone, prior to the LTE phone would be in the $1b-$2b range, but that could be much lower if they have to reduce GSM phone production in order to get those sales. Keep in mind production seems to be limited by screen supply so until Apple can produce GSM iPhones faster than they can sell them worldwide, there is not a single penny of extra profit to be made with a Verizon phone.
post #68 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kyahx View Post

Has no one seen this??


Here's the link.
http://www.mobilecrunch.com/2010/06/...-pipe-variety/
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post #69 of 69
Quote:
Originally Posted by LouisTheXIV View Post

Maybe that's not such a bad thing! After all....maybe Verizon customers actually want to advertise that their iPhone can stick through a 10 minute call without dropping 3 times! And that Verizon logo is the "I can make calls!" badge...

In all seriousness, every single other carrier in the world has agreed to not putting their logo on the iPhone. I doubt this is a "major" sticking point for VZ.

I don't know, they had to be dragged kicking and screaming into allowing wifi on phones. Verizon seems to be pretty opinionated and very very stuck on their way of doing things.

Apple and Verizon are 2 extremely stubborn companies, doesn't surprise me that they have gone so long without being able to strike any sort of deal.
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