Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer
I am sure Steve and company are thinking Globally.
The problem is, the GSM market is growing rapidly and CDMA versions are shrinking rapidly.http://www.gsmworld.com/newsroom/mar...ta_summary.htm
Worldwide Phones: 4,310,295,611
CDMA2000 1X: 309,907,068
CDMA2000 1xEV-DO: 118,688,849
CDMA2000 1xEV-DO Rev. A : 12,644,062
WCDMA HSPA: 133,286,097
What's Apple's motivation?
Looking at these numbers I can't tell if the the CDMA2000 users should be added together or if the new CDMA2000 tech is simply a subset of the previous one. IOW, are the 12M EV-DO Rev. A users also included as part of the EV-DO users who are all part of the CDM2000 1X users?
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Apple's motivation? An additional addressable market of 860 million and a more than 10% increase in market cap. If Apple can sell to 2% of that market, that's over 17 million additional phones sold. To put that into perspective, at $600 a pop, that's $10.2B in extra revenue. At a 20% profit margin and a (very conservative) P/E of 16x, that's over $30B in market cap, or an additional ~$33 per share. (Btw, the CDMA 1x is heavily concentrated in countries that wealthier than the global average; that's nothing to scoff at either).
That said, I am not sure it will happen, but that's because of other reasons.
But if they can only make x
-many phones and they can sell that many without making a CDMA or a TD-SCDMA (China Mobile, only) phone then there is no point. They have 13 less countries to sell the iPhone 4 then they did last year for the 3GS, but the sales are way up as well as the demand. If a new phone comes it'll have to be a mid-year release, I'd think.
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer
That market is shrinking. Japan's NTT DoCoMo which now owns part of Tata is deploying 30 million more GSM subscribers in India, moving away from CDMA technologies.
In another year and a half, even more of their market will be shrinking.
That's true, a lot of CDMA '2G' networks have moved to UMTS/W-CDMA for '3G', completely bypassing CDMA2000 '3G'. Others that adopted CDMA2000 have converted to or added UMTS/W-CDMA.
Apple can target 500 Million GSM and climbing subscribers in China and increase it's market share 5 fold.
500 Million GSM subs in China is old data, it's actually over 700M at this point. China Mobile's June numbers will push it over 550M by itself. Note that number is only for '2G', for '3G' China Mobile is using their homegrown TD-SCDMA network based off W-CDMA* which uses the same UTMS air-interface.
This brings up an interesting scenario...
How fast is China moving into '3G' and smartphone consumption. If they are moving fast enough and they are buying enough phones and is China Mobile is willing to play ball with Apple as an older AI article suggests* it might be in Apple's best interest to make a GSM/TD-SCDMA iPhone over a CDMA/CDMA2000 iPhone. They get to reuse the '2G' chips and TD-SCDMA (and TD-HSDPA andTD-LTE) will be around much longer than CDMA and CDMA2000.
We might say that they'd never choose another country before the US, but that is exactly what they have done with the iPhone 4. They added the frequency spectrum of Japan's NTT docomo to their '3G' penta-basnd chip over the operating band to make it work with T-Mobile USA. It's still not listed on the Tech Specs and there is still no word of the #1 NTT docomo as as carrier, only the #3, SoftBank, but according to the FCC, it's there. Whatever the reason, they clearly ignored a US carrier in favour of China's neighbor.
* Same as iPhone's '3G'. W-CDMA is not CDMA or CDMA2000 like you find on Verizon or Sprint.