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Mac sales up 35% in May, suggest no cannibalization from iPad

post #1 of 58
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The NPD Group on Tuesday released its retail sales data for the month of May, revealing that Mac sales increased 35 percent for Apple and suggesting that the launch of the iPad will not slow their growth.

Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray revealed the new NPD domestic retail data, which suggests that Apple will sell between 3.1 million and 3.2 million total Macs in the June quarter. That's about in line with Wall Street's consensus expectation of 3.1 million.

The early NPD data suggests that Apple will see year-over-year Mac unit growth of between 19 percent and 23 percent, better than Wall Street's expectation of 19 percent year-over-year growth.

"This is the second data point that suggests Apple is not seeing much cannibalization in its Mac business (from the iPad)," Munster wrote. But it's a different story with the iPod.

The latest NPD data shows that iPod sales are down 13 percent year over year, which is a decrease greater than the 9 percent Munster had forecast. However, international iPod sales are a larger mix than international Mac sales, so NPD data has a slightly greater margin of error.

Munster said that the data suggests that the iPad is slightly cannibalizing Mac sales. But given the fact that the iPad has an average selling price four times higher than the iPod, he sees it as a net positive for Apple.



"We believe in the long run Mac cannibalization will exist, but will be minimal," he said. "Apple has successfully limited the iPad functionality to primarily content consumption vs. content creation on a Mac. And relative to the iPod, the physical size of an iPad provides a meaningfully different value proposition (portability vs. screen size)."

NPD's domestic data for April, released earlier this year, found that Mac sales were up 39 percent year over year in the first month of the June quarter. The numbers have remained consistent, putting Apple on pace to sell between 3.1 million and 3.2 million Macs in the three month frame.

If those numbers hold, they would exceed last quarter when Apple sold 2.94 million Macs to start 2010. But those sales were achieved without a new product launch.

Early last quarter, Apple launched new MacBook Pros, equipped with Intel's latest Core i7 and Core i5 processors in the high-end 15- and 17-inch models, as well as a refresh to the 13-inch MacBook Pro adding a Nvidia GeForce 320M graphics processor.

Then in May, the company also updated its low-end $999 MacBook, giving it, too, GeForce 320M graphics. And in June, the company redesigned its Mac mini, adding an HDMI port, a built-in SD Card slot, and giving it a unibody enclosure with a built-in power supply.
post #2 of 58
Does anyone know if there are separate numbers on desktop/notebook sales available/estimated?
post #3 of 58
Once we move away from all the awes and oooos of the ipad we see it is all about business.
Funny though because last year the freaking analyst wanted to know what Apple was going to do about the popularity of the netbook.
I'm really shocked that the person that asked didn't or failed, to realized how a cheap a** Apple laptop could hurt the sales of their more pricier laptops and desktops.
Anyway, now we see why the ipad has limited functionality.
It all makes since now.
post #4 of 58
They are amazing machines, and deserve to sell well although the new Mac Mini is a massive rip off in the UK, we pay over £100 (around $150) more than the US and yes that price includes our vat and exchange rates etc before anyone says "it's because of the vat"

Having said that I can't wait for the iMac refresh, also where the hell is the 27" Cinema display!
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post #5 of 58
With less than 5% of the global market, Macs will be the sleeper growth opportunity for Apple in the next decade. Especially as developing countries grow wealthier, as they inevitably will.
post #6 of 58
I guess "we" don't need a Mac Pro update then after all.
post #7 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

With less than 5% of the global market, Macs will be the sleeper growth opportunity for Apple in the next decade. Especially as developing countries grow wealthier, as they inevitably will.

If we go by percentage of revenue or profits we see Apple leading the pack. This alone is proof that Apple is focused on Mac growth despite their success in other areas.
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post #8 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

If we go by percentage of revenue or profits we see Apple leading the pack. This alone is proof that Apple is focused on Mac growth despite their success in other areas.

But the growth will be from laptops and the Mini. Traditional 'desktop' sales (both volume and price) seem to be falling even faster than iPod sales.
post #9 of 58
Apple could probably grow the Mac desktop and portable business simply by promoting them as the only way to create apps... which, by the way, could turn you into a millionaire.

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post #10 of 58
Apple is doing well because they make phenomenally good machines with a reasonable value proposition. My wife bought one of the early 2010 MacBook Pros this year and it's easily the best Apple laptop either of us have ever owned. Apple really nailed it with this one. No surprise people want to buy it-- life's too short to use anything else if you can afford one of these MacBook Pros.
post #11 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

Does anyone know if there are separate numbers on desktop/notebook sales available/estimated?

PAGE 33
post #12 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

But the growth will be from laptops and the Mini. Traditional 'desktop' sales (both volume and price) seem to be falling even faster than iPod sales.

If I recall correctly the iMac was singlehandedly propping up the desktop market being the only brand and machine reportedly on the rise.

I have to wonder if the iPad (and future tablets it will inevitably spur) will have a positive effect on the overall desktop market. I know of several people who have gotten or will be getting a desktop for their next PC after buying an iPad.
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post #13 of 58
Steve Jobs: "If I were running Apple, I would milk the Macintosh for all it's worth -- and get busy on the next great thing. The PC wars are over. Done. Microsoft won a long time ago."
-- Fortune, Feb. 19, 1996
post #14 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by spinnerlys View Post

PAGE 33

Page 35, I believe you meant. Thanks.
post #15 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

... I have to wonder if the iPad (and future tablets it will inevitably spur) will have a positive effect on the overall desktop market. I know of several people who have gotten or will be getting a desktop for their next PC after buying an iPad.

I definitely think it will. Most people don't really need a notebook, as a notebook, what they need is something they can take to the coffee shop to web browse or do some email, or for traveling and using it for the same purposes. Only a relatively small number actually need notebook functionality when mobile. For the first group, a desktop plus iPad is the best of both worlds -- large screen, highly productive workstation, plus small lightweight portable device -- where a notebook was a compromise -- small screen, less productive workstation and relatively large and heavy portable device -- for them before.

I think it's also the case that owning a notebook became a bit of a style thing for a lot of people. That's also likely to change as owning an iPad becomes the more "stylish" thing to do.
post #16 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Foo2 View Post

Steve Jobs: "If I were running Apple, I would milk the Macintosh for all it's worth -- and get busy on the next great thing. The PC wars are over. Done. Microsoft won a long time ago."
-- Fortune, Feb. 19, 1996

I hope no one holds 15-year-old stated opinions over your head. The tech world was a very different place in 1996.
post #17 of 58
All this talk about cannibalising Mac sales.. doesn't anyone else think like me - that actually the iPad is going to make more people switch TO Mac?
post #18 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Booga View Post

I hope no one holds 15-year-old stated opinions over your head. The tech world was a very different place in 1996.

You're not fully reading the statement. It shows business sense and no desire to let nostalgia get in the way of profitability. That is timeless for longterm success.
post #19 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Foo2 View Post

You're not fully reading the statement. It shows business sense and no desire to let nostalgia get in the way of profitability. That is timeless for longterm success.

Well, yes, but you also have to consider that he was still out of Apple when he said it. I think Apple's present course shows both a tendency to do more than milk the Mac for all it's worth, as well as moving on to the next big thing.
post #20 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon T View Post

All this talk about cannibalising Mac sales.. doesn't anyone else think like me - that actually the iPad is going to make more people switch TO Mac?

You're exactly right. The iPhone and iPad are going to get people to buy more and more Macs. Many iPhone and iPad owners use Windows PCs right now. As these customers experience Apple quality first hand with their mobile devices, they will be much more likely to consider a Mac for their next PC purchase.
post #21 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

With less than 5% of the global market, Macs will be the sleeper growth opportunity for Apple in the next decade. Especially as developing countries grow wealthier, as they inevitably will.

husshhhhhh now

mac will explode over the next 10 yrs
the ipad is a secret entry way for all those die hard wintel mopes who will never buy a mac to join the OSX CROWD
they just did not know that they switched thats all

nice pain free topic

peace 9
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post #22 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Booga View Post

I hope no one holds 15-year-old stated opinions over your head. The tech world was a very different place in 1996.

That quote from 1996 (MS has won) still holds true today: Apple is growing at 35% from a 3.3% market share while the market as a whole is growing at 20% (Source: IDC). If Apple continues at that rate they will reach a 10% market share by 2020 and 50% by 2030. So unless we are talking about a far away possible future, Microsoft still holds the market.

This is still very good news for Apple investors - it just doesn't change the market share significantly.
post #23 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon T View Post

All this talk about cannibalising Mac sales.. doesn't anyone else think like me - that actually the iPad is going to make more people switch TO Mac?

I think the iPad is an entirely NEW market. The Netbook is a 90% productivity and 10 % leisure device. It barely runs Windows, it has lousy keyboard/mouse and a crappy display with an underpowered 1 GHz processor. For movie watching, music and gaming - well, it's pathetic. If you fly or commute, you can watch a movie or play a game on it - but it's only last resort.

The iPad is 80% Leisure and 20% productivity. It's amazing to watch movies, play games, surf the net; and if you don't have an external keyboard - you can do a report on it; but it wouldn't be my first choice.

Now, add a bluetooth keyboard/mouse to the iPad; and you have a serious contender for the Netbook market - however if you have any specialized apps, the iPad simply will not work.

Thus, the iPad is one of those new, emerging LEISURE devices, IMHO
post #24 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Foo2 View Post

Steve Jobs: "If I were running Apple, I would milk the Macintosh for all it's worth -- and get busy on the next great thing. The PC wars are over. Done. Microsoft won a long time ago."
-- Fortune, Feb. 19, 1996

He is sorta putting the Mac last and having 'the next big thing' take centre stage. See iPod, iPad and iPhone.
post #25 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hodar View Post

... Thus, the iPad is one of those new, emerging LEISURE devices, IMHO

I think it's a mistake to try categorize the iPad as a leisure vs. productivity, or creation vs. consumption device. (John Gruber has a recurring theme on Daring Fireball of postings about people who didn't get the memo that the iPad is a consumption, not a creation, device.) What it is depends mostly on the software you have on it.

It's a portable device that's nice to use around the house when you don't want to sit at a desk. It's a portable device that's easy to travel with. It can be different things at different times and in different places and for different people. If you want to categorize it as something, call it an ultra-portable computer. It can be used more casually than a desktop or notebook, but that doesn't preclude doing "serious work" on it.

And, it's probably worth noting that lots of people aren't really all that productive on their netbooks.
post #26 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

But the growth will be from laptops and the Mini. Traditional 'desktop' sales (both volume and price) seem to be falling even faster than iPod sales.

You need to pay attention to the past 4-6 10-Q filings. iMac and Mac Pro sales are all increasing quarter over quarter at accelerating rates, especially the iMac.
post #27 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Foo2 View Post

Steve Jobs: "If I were running Apple, I would milk the Macintosh for all it's worth -- and get busy on the next great thing. The PC wars are over. Done. Microsoft won a long time ago."
-- Fortune, Feb. 19, 1996

He did say the "next" great thing. Maybe that was a coded message showing is intent to come back to Apple and bring the NeXT OS with him.
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post #28 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

With less than 5% of the global market, Macs will be the sleeper growth opportunity for Apple in the next decade. Especially as developing countries grow wealthier, as they inevitably will.

On the plus side, Apple has some 91% of the market for PCs costing more than $1000.

But on the flipside, as that link notes: "...the average Windows machine in June sold for $515, the average Apple machine came in at $1,400."

So you're right: with 5.4% of global market share but also with the highest margins in the industry, we can expect Mac to remain a steady profit center for the company.

But I wouldn't expect much Mac growth in nascent markets like Asia or South America. While some segments there are indeed booming, most of those markets simply can't afford to buy some of the most expensive computers available.

For those markets I would expect lower-end PCs running Red-Flag, Ubuntu or other Linux distro to show the highest growth, with Windows right behind and Mac a distant third.

That won't hurt Apple's bottom line, but neither will it boost their market share.

Sure, Linux has only a 1% share on the desktop by some measures, but consider the rate of growth:



How many other platforms have tripled in just 5 years?

Apple's share has grown well in recent years, but has never regained its 10% it had in the early '90s.

I wouldn't say the future belongs to Linux, not by a long shot. But I can see a time 10 years from now when platforms have a fairly even three-way split between MS, Apple, and Linux. Microsoft goes down, Apple quintuples, and Linux fills in the gap in between.
post #29 of 58
Consider also:

7.1 million - Projected iPad sales for 2010. (Source: iSuppli)

58 million - Projected netbook sales in 2010. (Source: ABI Research)

355 million - Projected PC sales in 2010. (Source: IDC)

http://blog.seattlepi.com/microsoft/...rom=blog_last3
post #30 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

They are amazing machines, and deserve to sell well although the new Mac Mini is a massive rip off in the UK, we pay over £100 (around $150) more than the US and yes that price includes our vat and exchange rates etc before anyone says "it's because of the vat"

Your figures are slightly off, but you do have a point. I have just done the calculation for where I'm from (UK) and where I am (Portugal) using today's rates. This is for the basic model Mini, which Apple sells for $699 in the US:

UK: $699 = £461.29 + VAT @ 17.5% = £552.02. UK price = £649. Difference = +£96.98 = 17.57%
Portugal: $699 = 638.64 + IVA @21% = 766.37. Portugal price = 806. Difference = +39.63 = 5.17%

So the UK does pay a significant premium, which is all the more galling seeing as we invented Johnny Ive and should therefore all get a discount.
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post #31 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalTroll View Post

... But I wouldn't expect much Mac growth in nascent markets like Asia or South America. While some segments there are indeed booming, most of those markets simply can't afford to buy some of the most expensive computers available.

For those markets I would expect [Linux] to show the highest growth, with Windows right behind and Mac a distant third.

That won't hurt Apple's bottom line, but neither will it boost their market share.

...

I wouldn't say the future belongs to Linux, not by a long shot. But I can see a time 10 years from now when platforms have a fairly even three-way split between MS, Apple, and Linux. Microsoft goes down, Apple quintuples, and Linux fills in the gap in between.

I doubt that Linux will have that sort of market share in 10 years, unless it is largely made up of installations in markets that can't afford anything else, which means no one will really be making any money from it, the software that runs on it, or the hardware it runs on. (Which would also mean that market share would become an even more meaningless statistic) But, the Linux desktop user experience sucks, even in comparison to Windows. It's still a great server platform, but as a workstation it's pretty lousy.
post #32 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kylant View Post

That quote from 1996 (MS has won) still holds true today: Apple is growing at 35% from a 3.3% market share while the market as a whole is growing at 20% (Source: IDC). If Apple continues at that rate they will reach a 10% market share by 2020 and 50% by 2030. So unless we are talking about a far away possible future, Microsoft still holds the market.

This is still very good news for Apple investors - it just doesn't change the market share significantly.

Apple already takes about 1/3rd of the profit from all PC vendors so I don't think that kind of growth is sustainable or even possible given Apple chosen market of pairing the OS with the HW.

Even HP, the largest PC vendor in the world who make their unit numbers by selling cheap machines with little profit, backed my renting space to crapware developers, only have 25%.

Apple and MS are not in the same business so doing a direct comparison simply doesn't work without acknowledging all these caveats. The problem MS faces as they are forced to support open standards and an increasingly OS independent web is that the underlying OS isn't as important as it used to be for many people. Google looks to MS' biggest threat when it comes to the desktop OS. If they lose all those netbook sales of Windows OEMs to ChromeOS it will be the tip of the iceberg for the consumer Windows market of cheap PCs.
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post #33 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

I doubt that Linux will have that sort of market share in 10 years, unless it is largely made up of installations in markets that can't afford anything else, which means no one will really be making any money from it, the software that runs on it, or the hardware it runs on. (Which would also mean that market share would become an even more meaningless statistic) But, the Linux desktop user experience sucks, even in comparison to Windows. It's still a great server platform, but as a workstation it's pretty lousy.

Linux growth is possible, but only for the kernel itself, much like Android and other mobile OSes.
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post #34 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

I doubt that Linux will have that sort of market share in 10 years, unless it is largely made up of installations in markets that can't afford anything else

Yes, that was exactly my point:

"Officially, India's strategy is to make Linux the standard for students in all academic institutions while the government trains employees to help them work in a Linux environment with support from IBM."
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/GA28Df06.html

"Increasingly, Brazil's government ministries and state-run enterprises are abandoning Windows in favour of 'open-source' or 'free' software, like Linux. 'The number one reason for this change is economic', says Sergio Amadeu, who runs the government's National Institute for Information Technology."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/4602325.stm

But there are some notable installations elsewhere too:

"'When we rolled into Baghdad, we did it using open source,' General Justice continued. 'It may come as a surprise to many of you, but the U.S. Army is the single largest install base for Red Hat Linux. I'm their largest customer.'"
http://www.linux.com/archive/feed/61302


Quote:
which means no one will really be making any money from it

Er, Linux is free.

Besides, while few companies have the margins Apple does with its expensive machines, Red Hat, Canonical, IBM, and others are doing well enough (certainly better than most iPhone developers).

Quote:
But, the Linux desktop user experience sucks, even in comparison to Windows. It's still a great server platform, but as a workstation it's pretty lousy.

Millions of people feel otherwise. De gustibus non est disputandum. Enjoy your choice, let others enjoy theirs.
post #35 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Linux growth is possible, but only for the kernel itself, much like Android and other mobile OSes.

For growth, right now Linux is at least on par with Apple globally.

In terms of absolute numbers, yes, Gartner predicts Android, while technically no longer a Linux derivative per se, will overtake iOS in under two years:
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...e_by_2012.html
post #36 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

If I recall correctly the iMac was singlehandedly propping up the desktop market being the only brand and machine reportedly on the rise.

I have to wonder if the iPad (and future tablets it will inevitably spur) will have a positive effect on the overall desktop market. I know of several people who have gotten or will be getting a desktop for their next PC after buying an iPad.


That is my current plan. I was set on getting a new MacBook Pro this year to replace my aging G5 Dual. With my iPad, I no longer see a need for the MacBook, and will buy a new desktop within the next year. I'm not surprised to hear that others are following the same course.

Now, if only Apple would release the mini-tower we've been asking for these past several years. The iMac is not expandable enough, and the pro is overkill for many price-conscious people.
post #37 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalTroll View Post

... Er, Linux is free.

Well, you'll notice that, snipped from your quote, I also said they wouldn't make money from the software that runs on it or the hardware it runs on.

Quote:
Besides, while few companies have the margins Apple does with its expensive machines, Red Hat, Canonical, IBM, and others are doing well enough (certainly better than most iPhone developers).

I don't think there is much growth potential for them in the markets you describe, at this time, or in the foreseeable future.

Quote:
Millions of people feel otherwise. De gustibus non est disputandum. Enjoy your choice, let others enjoy theirs.

They are just living in denial.
post #38 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalTroll View Post

In terms of absolute numbers, yes, Gartner predicts Android, while technically no longer a Linux derivative per se, will overtake iOS in under two years

Oh, Gartner, right, they're usually a reliable source.
post #39 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon T View Post

All this talk about cannibalising Mac sales.. doesn't anyone else think like me - that actually the iPad is going to make more people switch TO Mac?

I agree it's nonsense. The pundits are assuming that people buy Apple purely on brand and ultimately Apple products will cannibalise themselves. Unfortunately for them Apple products are well distanced up the scale, few would buy an iPad instead of an MBP because of the genuine functionality gap.

Cheap Windows Net/Notebooks, on the other hand, promise this functionality but poor design creates a failure to deliver (just look at what average users actually do with their notebooks) so their genuine functionality falls within reach of iPad. This is the market that iPad should cannibalise and as more non-Apple people get to experience their products another halo should occur.

I'd be keen to see how Windows Net/Notebook sales are doing outside of the emerging markets.

McD
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post #40 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

Well, you'll notice that, snipped from your quote, I also said they wouldn't make money from the software that runs on it or the hardware it runs on.

Red Hat has doubled in value over the last five years, IBM just turned in a strong quarter with profits expected to double by 2015, and Canonical's Mark Shuttleworth has so much money he can afford to take a long term approach, anticipating profitability in three to five years. While Canonical is a relative newcomer, with a larger share than Red Hat we can expect the company to do at least as well over the long term.

And while the Linux software and hardware vendors I know personally are much smaller than those, they're all doing quite well.

The situation with Linux is much like we used to hear about Mac back when it was down to a 2.2% market share, about how it's not worth developing for. But there's money to be made for nearly an platform if you go about it smartly. And like the rebound of the Mac, seeing Linux desktop market share triple in just five years bodes very well for the platform.

Besides, for many companies investing in Linux it's not about direct returns as much as strategic value, for the reasons Joel outlines well here:
http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articl...gyLetterV.html

Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalTroll

Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse

But, the Linux desktop user experience sucks, even in comparison to Windows. It's still a great server platform, but as a workstation it's pretty lousy.

Millions of people feel otherwise. De gustibus non est disputandum. Enjoy your choice, let others enjoy theirs.

They are just living in denial.

Keepin' it as classy. Nice.

And to think some here wonder why Mac folks have the reputation they do....
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