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Apple to enter a new golden age in 2010 with 70% earnings growth - Page 3

post #81 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

No, he's correct. He's working backward.

You have a serious issue understanding the simple principle of percentage when used for comparisons. If you compare 2010 with 2009, you use the 2009 figure as the base; if you compare 2009 with 2010, you use 2010 as the base. It is impossible for a change of 50% to be 50% in both directions.

Say you earn $40,000 a year in 2009. You get a pay rise of 50% for 2010 taking you up to $60,000. Now the business says they're having a bad patch so you go onto half time working and indulge yourself in side projects. Your pay now goes down by 50%. Will your pay be the same as before your pay rise? No. 50% of $60,000 is $30,000, not $40,000. Unless you can't divide by 2 of course! \

In 2009 you were earning one third less ie 33% less than after you received your 50% pay rise. Simples. jragosta was right.

Mac
post #82 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by andyzaky View Post

lol. I can tell I like you already melgross.

Yeah, I always imagined melgross to be a granddad figure - he keeps us all in line.
Needs to be done too, I reckon. Or the place will turn into MR or *shudder* (the site that will not be named, but sounds like Mizgodo).
..... the greatest fame comes from adding to human knowledge, not winning battles.
Paraphrased from Napolean Bonaparte, 1798
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..... the greatest fame comes from adding to human knowledge, not winning battles.
Paraphrased from Napolean Bonaparte, 1798
Reply
post #83 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocNo42 View Post

Want to eliminate tricky accounting? Eliminate production taxes and switch to use tax. Drop all other taxes and just have a national sales tax. Illegal alien? Creative Accounting? Irrelevant. You consume, you pay tax. Everyone pays the same share. It simplifies the system, eliminates a bunch of bureaucratic red tape...

It will never happen since 90% of the time when people are crowing about "fair" payment of taxes, they want those better off than them to simply pay more than they do. Too many people like the current system because it's so complicated it's easy to manipulate.

Since most of the complexities in the tax code were put there at the request of special interests, it's a fair assumption that they would find a way to manipulate the system to their advantage just as much with consumption based taxes as income taxes. It's also the most completely regressive tax plan possible, and forces those with lower incomes to pay a higher percentage of their income, because they must spend a higher percentage to live, in taxes. Nothing could be further from the truth than, "Everyone pays the same share."

A flat income tax isn't much better since, whatever the tax rate, it's still a bigger hit on those with lower incomes. I know that many people, for various reasons, don't like the idea of fair taxes, but a progressive income tax is the only fair tax, and, moving to that completely has certain automatic benefits, such as allowing people to live out their lives in dignity once they retire by removing most of their tax burden, instead of forcing them to sell their homes.

Yes, yes, I know, many of you find your heads about to explode at the concept that a progressive income tax is fair, but it's a simple fact that the wealthy enjoy the benefits of living in a society to a greater extent that the less wealthy, so it's entirely fair that they pay more in taxes, especially since a lot of what government pays for is to build infrastructure that allows them to build wealth. Why should the poor have to subsidize the rich?
post #84 of 125
I was on Engadget the other week when the HTC EVO came out on some blogger said it was the end of the iphone!
OMFG!!!!!
Viva Apple!
I got the iphone 4 last week.
OOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHH MYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY GOOOOOOOOOOOOOD!!!!!
I LOVE THIS PHONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
post #85 of 125
Well, interesting article, and certainly projected future cashflows are looking good for Apple, but I felt that it lacked balance:

a few things to caution the eager investor:
1) Potential product recall or class action lawsuit on iPhone 4 signal issues (unlikely, but verdict is open at the moment)
2) The fact that the share price of Apple may already be too high and may still correct downwards
3) That if Steve Jobs was to pass, the share price would take an (unavoidable) plunge.
4) Potential fed or european investigation into anti-competitiveness.
5) Ongoing disputes on patents with Nokia and HTC.
6) Ongoing improvement in penetration of android with Windows 7 launching at the end of the year.
7) The fact that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance!

You'll probably be okay with Apple stocks, but they're not as cheap and as much of a bargain as they used to be, and it's important to know the risks....
post #86 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonkin View Post

Once you get past the Ford ad:

http://www.theonion.com/video/new-ap...e-to-ta,17693/

Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

That was very good, I can (almost) see Apple doing that.

Have you ever watched any of those "Home Shopping" channels on TV where the buyers/users call in?

It seems those channels are really selling companionship and a friendly person to talk to with a sympathetic ear-- the merchandise is merely a means to this end.

... They should call them Apple Shrinks!

.
"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
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"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
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post #87 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by Foo2 View Post

I agree: Apple should be held accountable.

You do realize the costs and inconvenience associated with reverting to a previous phone.

Caveat Emptor!

.
"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
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"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
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post #88 of 125
Seriously, there weren't enough threads already about the iPhone that someone had to whine about it here as well?



Shame, this is a very in depth article, would be nice to be able to discuss it without the thread getting completely hijacked. Mods?
post #89 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by Foo2 View Post

I placed my order on-line in the first few hours of availability and received it on my doorstep the day before the official release.

It was not my intention to hijack the thread. I'm sorry for that. I only wish to keep this issue alive, because I don't believe Apple is doing right by customers.

Not quite sure I understand that comment ... if you didn't intend to hijack this thread ... stick to the topic. There are other threads that are dedicated to iPhone antennae problems.

Do you really think that Apple needs us to remind them, in every thread, of a problem that they are in the process of resolving? They never got to be #1 in most of the customer satisfaction surveys that I've seen by being indifferent to solving any real or perceived problems with any of their product.

To continue to hijack every thread possible, intended or not, says a lot about your real intentions ... and as Martha would say ... that's not a good thing.
See, in the record business, you can show someone your song, and they don’t copy it. In the tech business, you show somebody your idea, and they steal it. (Jimmy Iovine)
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See, in the record business, you can show someone your song, and they don’t copy it. In the tech business, you show somebody your idea, and they steal it. (Jimmy Iovine)
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post #90 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Well, the thinking is that Amazon can't maintain its growth unless they do something with the Kindle and e-books, as they may lose their early lead.

Apple, I believe, has a long way to go. Long way these days means three years.

After that, who knows. Apple has pulled itself into an expectation of coming up with explosive growth products. What if that's not possible going forward?

Apple doesn't seem to have an interest in having products that just have nice sales, except for accessories for major products. How many other categories can they get into that they can exploit in that way?

A connected Tv is the next area in which they can make a mark as some seem to think. What then?

Automotive products? Of what kind? Surely not car stereos! MS has got a big part of the auto industry sewed up with Windows embedded products for the auto OS. Could they make a move there? That would be very difficult to get into.

Where else would they go that wouldn't just be a whimsical suggestion?

Andy, any ideas here?


Advertising targeted to affluent qualified buyers!

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"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
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post #91 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by pauldfullerton View Post

Let's just hope all the MBA programs are putting together case studies that illustrate why Apple has been so successful. They could even distribute those case studies on an iPad!

When a company gets to be a case study in an MBA program, you know it has peaked..... that would be time to sell.
post #92 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwissMac2 View Post

You have a serious issue understanding the simple principle of percentage when used for comparisons. If you compare 2010 with 2009, you use the 2009 figure as the base; if you compare 2009 with 2010, you use 2010 as the base. It is impossible for a change of 50% to be 50% in both directions.

Say you earn $40,000 a year in 2009. You get a pay rise of 50% for 2010 taking you up to $60,000. Now the business says they're having a bad patch so you go onto half time working and indulge yourself in side projects. Your pay now goes down by 50%. Will your pay be the same as before your pay rise? No. 50% of $60,000 is $30,000, not $40,000. Unless you can't divide by 2 of course! \

In 2009 you were earning one third less ie 33% less than after you received your 50% pay rise. Simples. jragosta was right.

Mac

The following is a quote from the article:

"To get an idea of how deeply Apple continues to penetrate the market, last year the company produced 50% less in sales and over 71% less in earnings than it will this year. "

This year is 2010 ... last year is 2009. In other words ...

"To get an idea of how deeply Apple continues to penetrate the market, in 2009 the company produced 50% less in sales and over 71% less in earnings than it will in 2010." ....... (which means that it will take a 100% increase in 2009 sales to achieve 2010 prediction)


2010 sales minus 50% sales equals 2009
2010 earnings minus 71% equals 2009 earnings.


While I'll admit that his way of stating is backwards ... his percentages are correct.

Neither jragosta or you are right. ..... hint: If it appears to be wrong you may have misunderstood.
See, in the record business, you can show someone your song, and they don’t copy it. In the tech business, you show somebody your idea, and they steal it. (Jimmy Iovine)
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See, in the record business, you can show someone your song, and they don’t copy it. In the tech business, you show somebody your idea, and they steal it. (Jimmy Iovine)
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post #93 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by Foo2 View Post


Conclusion: Apple chose form over function.

Apple is fundamentally in the tech trade-off business. They overexpose wave reception limits for the end user's better management of the consequences; while boosting sensitivity to deal with cellular issues from the start, they make them more 'self-managed' by the user, and in the end, justly imputable to the pertinent cause.

It is essentially what Apple does best: a user centric engineering awareness integrated into the design process, at the transient and negligible cost of 'some mountain out of a molehill' pundits 'hit count' whining fiesta.

In fact, it's not at all unlike a serious blogging endeavor whereby clever and efficient Moderators manage informative, mis-informative and dis-informative inputs to breed better awareness of the sterile broadsides launched from ignorance.
post #94 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by minderbinder View Post

Seriously, there weren't enough threads already about the iPhone that someone had to whine about it here as well?



Shame, this is a very in depth article, would be nice to be able to discuss it without the thread getting completely hijacked. Mods?

What do you do when the fire department sends an arsonist to the blaze?
Check out the column length of off topic posts by a "mod" in this thread.
post #95 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

After that, who knows. Apple has pulled itself into an expectation of coming up with explosive growth products. What if that's not possible going forward?

Rabbits out of hats, as I've been calling it. But to sustain earnings growth, each successive rabbit has to be bigger than the one before. So far, they've been able to pull off that extremely difficult trick. Apple's luck will run out eventually -- but not anytime soon if they can ride the iPhone and iPad wave for another couple of years.

Quote:
Originally Posted by andyzaky View Post

At least we've now entered a time where the market at least recognizes Apple as one the best stocks in the market. Even if it is still undervalued.

Since the markets value companies every day, I have a hard time with the concept of declaring a stock to be under or overvalued. The markets may be unreasonably cautious about AAPL going forward (we agree on that), but I'm not sure I'm ready to jump on the undervalued boat because I know that this implies that the stock should be trading higher today based on current earnings and projected growth rates. The market psychology may not make any sense to us, but that doesn't change the market psychology. It's been this way forever, so it might be unreasonable to expect it to change drastically. This leads me to strongly suspect that AAPL's trailing P/E is unlikely to go higher than the mid 20s, unless market multiples broadly move higher (i.e., a bull market). I suspect a real bull market is a long way off.

Quote:
Originally Posted by andyzaky View Post

Look at that OUTRAGEOUS price to cash ration on Apple when it was trading in the low $100 range. It got even more compressed in the $80's. This was really the buy of the century. If we ever get a financial crisis like this again, I'm going All-In on Apple.

I recall a time, not so long ago, when AAPL was trading at only slightly more than 1.0 times cash on hand. This meant the markets were valuing Apple's business and everything else they owned at nothing. Actually, less than nothing because the implication of that sort of valuation is that they're going start losing money very soon, and fast. That never happened of course, but the markets were certainly of that mind.

The truth is, traders rarely take cash on hand into considering the value of a company (and rarely even debt, unless it's huge). I'm not so sure that the markets don't have that part right. What good is all that cash really, if it's not being used for capital investments? Since Apple can't use more than a tiny fraction of it for expansion, beyond the point where it cushions cash flow and keeps them out of the commercial paper market, it's really just so much green wallpaper. (And especially so since they refuse to give any of it back to the stockholders.)

BTW, can we please leave the iPhone reception discussion out of here, and keep this thread on this topic? Thanks!
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #96 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post


Apple doesn't seem to have an interest in having products that just have nice sales, except for accessories for major products. How many other categories can they get into that they can exploit in that way?

I don't think it's absolutely necessary to continually have new product lines to have better than average growth. Remember, there are lots of areas in the world where Apple is nowhere near the top in their complete product line. I would think future success could be continued by concentration on what they have and where they are represented in the world marketplace .... being the best with a few items sure beats being average with many, IMHO. As well, we still don't know, with any degree of certainty, what the server farm is going to be used for.

Too many products can dilute their efforts, I think ...... Just my 2¢.
See, in the record business, you can show someone your song, and they don’t copy it. In the tech business, you show somebody your idea, and they steal it. (Jimmy Iovine)
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See, in the record business, you can show someone your song, and they don’t copy it. In the tech business, you show somebody your idea, and they steal it. (Jimmy Iovine)
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post #97 of 125
If you believe iPhone 4 signal reception is the greatest and the iPhone 4 antenna design is marvelous, then join me in calling for Apple to restore the Field Test Mode to iOS4 in the next update, so we can test and compare signal strength and signal attenuation across the entire iPhone product line. People shouldn't and needn't have to jump through hoops like Anandtech did to try to measure the attenuation.
http://www.anandtech.com/show/3794/t...one-4-review/2
post #98 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by newbee View Post

Not quite sure I understand that comment ... if you didn't intend to hijack this thread ... stick to the topic.

I only posted a tiny comment that elicited some remarks that warranted response.

Quote:
There are other threads that are dedicated to iPhone antennae problems.

Few people read older threads any more--everybody had a real nice 4th of July and is ready to move on!--but the problem persists.

Quote:
Do you really think that Apple needs us to remind them, in every thread, of a problem that they are in the process of resolving?

Yes, at least in some threads. If you believe most of the opinions on AI, Apple doesn't even have a problem. If you read Pogue, there doesn't seem to be a problem but there's certainly confusion.

Quote:
To continue to hijack every thread possible, intended or not, says a lot about your real intentions ... and as Martha would say ... that's not a good thing.

If we are talking criminal activity, intentions and sensibility are the most important issues.

I intend to bring this up in a few threads, not to hijack them, but simply to remind people the issue still exists. The hijacking will depend on everyone else.

You know the person or person(s) who's always interjecting "Apple is DOOMED!"? Well, I've got some catching up to do.

Let Apple know now that you want Field Test Mode restored to iOS 4.
post #99 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by andyzaky View Post

lol. I can tell I like you already melgross.

We all get hot at times. But this is unnecessary. It's a way of evading the issue.
post #100 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

We all get hot at times. But this is unnecessary. It's a way of evading the issue.

Yes, it's not like AI is a U.S. court of law. It's not about fairness and impartiality here.
post #101 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by Foo2 View Post

I thought I was quite clear, the manner in which the iPhone 4 is held in Apple's promo materials is precisely the "natural" way I've referenced. No, that's not the only "natural" way to hold it. It's a natural way, and it's not surprisingly the way Apple chose to have its hand models hold the phone. It's comfortable and relaxed.


Huh? I just did explain, in the previous post. The death grip works really well in my office--where signal strength is not high but I've used previous models of iPhone just fine in years past--not just in some vale I pass through transiently on the way to work.

Is it any wonder the blogs and geek sites are rife with noise on this issue? A few do seem to be properly skeptical of any software fix.

Pogue demonstrates no understanding of the situation, just knowledge that many conflicting postings have been made about it. He even suggests Apple's 30-day return policy should be enough to mollify concerned customers, when there's far more involved in returning an iPhone than just Apple's return policy. How helpful is that? Why is he cited as an authority on this subject?

Mossberg was befuddled as to how the iPhone 4, with its apparently better reception, was so much less reliable. What say you about that?


If the bars are so meaningless (which I agree with), then why is Apple changing the formula for their display? It's all about changing expectations and IMHO distracting from the real issue. The problem is, if users hold a bare iPhone 4 in a natural manner (you know what I mean!), they'll maybe see zero bars and "No Service", when a 3GS held similarly could have made the call or sent/received the message. Pity.


It's more of a problem for Apple, though, and a bigger problem for Apple than it was before. Cupping previous iPhone models was required to have a significant effect on reception. With the naked iPhone 4, just holding it normally can have a significant effect.


While my results are not quantitative (other than seeing bars go from 4-5 to 0 and throughput go to 0), Anandtech's attenuation measurements are consistent with what I've seen, as are the early observations of Walt Mossberg's. If you've ever gone out with the iPhone 4 and not had it in a case, you've quite possibly experienced the same issue--and not even known it. Instead of panning the relevance of my experience, you should be trying your darnedest to understand how and when it happens.


Oh, come on. Who isn't biased? In the case of anything to do with Apple, of course, you have millions more reasons than most people to be biased in certain directions. As a long time Apple customer, I have countless thousands of reasons to be biased in perhaps other directions. Why does this bother you so, when you're having the last laugh?

I'with my daughter in her dentists office, using my iPad, so I'm not going to answer as thoughly as usual.

I just want to briefly touch some of what you mentioned.

I don't see why you think Pogue is any less knowledgable than Mossberg. Is it because he has no issue, and Mossberge did, when he tried it, that is?

As for my being biased, well, you don't know much about people. When the iPad first came out, I said that 256 MB RAM was too little. I was roundly jeered by those who said that if Apple used 256, then 256 was obviously enough, and that I was anti-Apple.

I then said that Apple made a mistake for not including a full USB2 port. Again I was jeered. Same thing for an SD slot. It's funny you would say I'm biased in favor of Apple because of my stock, but others are saying I'm anti-Apple every time I say they done something wrong, which is often enough.

Because I have a fair amount of stock I want to see Apple doing the rignt thing, which is why I've said that Apple made a mistake here. But this is not S big a mistake as you are saying. If Apple makes a big mistake, it hurts the stock. We can't conceal that.

You REALLY don't know me at all!
post #102 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I don't see why you think Pogue is any less knowledgable than Mossberg. Is it because he has no issue, and Mossberge did, when he tried it, that is?

That's part of it. The other aspect is he doesn't even "get it". Of course, I don't blame him for not "getting it", since he didn't seem to have observed it or trust what he's seen in pics and on youtube.

On the other hand, I'm amazed at Mossberg. I don't know that I would have had such conviction about my own observations as he did (with such few statistics) that I would write about the iP4's lower reliability in a first review.

Quote:
As for my being biased, well, you don't know much about people.

I know enough to know everyone is biased and that people will go to great lengths to defend untenable positions even after being shown they're wrong.

Quote:
You REALLY don't know me at all!

Likewise. But we're both people.
post #103 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by Foo2 View Post

I intend to bring this up in a few threads, not to hijack them, but simply to remind people the issue still exists. The hijacking will depend on everyone else.

You know the person or person(s) who's always interjecting "Apple is DOOMED!"? Well, I've got some catching up to do.

Let Apple know now that you want Field Test Mode restored to iOS 4.


OK, you have hijacked this thread, IMO.

You brought it up, made a lot of OT posts.

Now, please drop it for this thread!


If you feel you must bring it up in other threads, you certainly are free to do so. But, consider stating your positions and assertions in 2 or 3 posts, then drop it in that thread, too. Otherwise, people, who come to the thread, to discuss the topic of the thread, will ignore you or just leave the thread.

TIA


.
"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
Reply
"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
Reply
post #104 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by Foo2 View Post

I only posted a tiny comment that elicited some remarks that warranted response.

I call bullshit ... you posted after 3 posts that were on topic and baited the whole thread (off topic) ..... of course they replied ... which means you "achieved your objective". Congrats, but a hijacker in denial is still a hijacker.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Foo2 View Post

Few people read older threads any more--everybody had a real nice 4th of July and is ready to move on!--but the problem persists.

That's because most rational people don't have an anti-Apple agenda and have decided to accept Apple's explanation, for now at least, and will wait and see what the proposed update wll bring ....but then I don't think you could ever be accused of being rational, at least not judging by your posting record .... and judging by the majority of posts on this subject, most of the over two million iPhone 4 users ... still don't have a problem. Not only that, but it seems to me that the greater majority of the posts on this subject are spent replying to you and your kind.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Foo2 View Post

I intend to bring this up in a few threads, not to hijack them, but simply to remind people the issue still exists. The hijacking will depend on everyone else.

Of course you do, that's your hidden agenda showing. Again, I call bullshit ... you're acting like "the boy who cried wolf" .... and so that with each post you become less meaningful .... if the mods had any guts around here you would have been silenced a long time ago, but maybe they don't care about the quality of this site anymore .... just the volume ....sad. A good reason to look elsewhere, I imagine.
See, in the record business, you can show someone your song, and they don’t copy it. In the tech business, you show somebody your idea, and they steal it. (Jimmy Iovine)
Reply
See, in the record business, you can show someone your song, and they don’t copy it. In the tech business, you show somebody your idea, and they steal it. (Jimmy Iovine)
Reply
post #105 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by LTMP View Post

If things continue as they are, they should have just enough cash to buy Microsoft.

If Microsoft continues the way they are, you'll have just enough cash to buy it.
A is A
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A is A
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post #106 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwissMac2 View Post

You have a serious issue understanding the simple principle of percentage when used for comparisons. If you compare 2010 with 2009, you use the 2009 figure as the base; if you compare 2009 with 2010, you use 2010 as the base. It is impossible for a change of 50% to be 50% in both directions.

Say you earn $40,000 a year in 2009. You get a pay rise of 50% for 2010 taking you up to $60,000. Now the business says they're having a bad patch so you go onto half time working and indulge yourself in side projects. Your pay now goes down by 50%. Will your pay be the same as before your pay rise? No. 50% of $60,000 is $30,000, not $40,000. Unless you can't divide by 2 of course! \

In 2009 you were earning one third less ie 33% less than after you received your 50% pay rise. Simples. jragosta was right.

Mac

Yeah. I think we all understand that. But if you're looking back, you can do what he did. I think he understands this pretty well, and so do I.
post #107 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Have you ever watched any of those "Home Shopping" channels on TV where the buyers/users call in?

It seems those channels are really selling companionship and a friendly person to talk to with a sympathetic ear-- the merchandise is merely a means to this end.

... They should call them Apple Shrinks!

.

Too many people home all day with no one to talk to. Buying also makes many people feel good about themselves.
post #108 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by quinney View Post

What do you do when the fire department sends an arsonist to the blaze?
Check out the column length of off topic posts by a "mod" in this thread.

Guilty!

We always seem to get off topic for a while. Not the worst thing to happen as long as we get back.
post #109 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by newbee View Post

I don't think it's absolutely necessary to continually have new product lines to have better than average growth. Remember, there are lots of areas in the world where Apple is nowhere near the top in their complete product line. I would think future success could be continued by concentration on what they have and where they are represented in the world marketplace .... being the best with a few items sure beats being average with many, IMHO. As well, we still don't know, with any degree of certainty, what the server farm is going to be used for.

Too many products can dilute their efforts, I think ...... Just my 2¢.

That kind of thinking gets companies into trouble. Becoming complacent over current product lines is a bad place to be. The only reason why Apple is so successful now is because that thinking hasn't been theirs. After all, the computer and iPod line had been doing pretty well. Why go further? Then the iPhone line was doing pretty well. Why go further. Now the iPad line is doing pretty well. Why go any further is what you're saying. but that's wrong, just as it was before.
post #110 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by Foo2 View Post

Yes, it's not like AI is a U.S. court of law. It's not about fairness and impartiality here.

And we try to be. I know I try to be.
post #111 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Rabbits out of hats, as I've been calling it. But to sustain earnings growth, each successive rabbit has to be bigger than the one before. So far, they've been able to pull off that extremely difficult trick. Apple's luck will run out eventually -- but not anytime soon if they can ride the iPhone and iPad wave for another couple of years.

Let's see if we can get this thread back on track!

There's some discussion out there that the iPod has run out of steam, and even some discussion that this bodes ill for Apple's longer term prospects.

But then I read that they're possibly looking to bump up the Touch with iPhone 4 capability and I see in it confirmation of the presence of a kind of cross-pollination where one form factor feeds another form factor and so forth.

In other words, I don't think Apple is focusing on the size of the rabbits; I think it's looking at the implications of one form factor's changes on another form factor. Beyond that, it is probably looking at form factors it doesn't presently "touch" that can be seen in a different light by what it has discovered.

If one then realizes that what Apple "sees" is a great deal more than what you or I are priviledged to see (thanks to their penchant for secrecy), then it is easy to see how they could keep surprising us with new products. And it is also possible to see this continuing into the future for a long time to come.

Time will inevitably show whether or not I'm right about this, but if I am then it's logical to presume that Apple's share price will remain on an upward trajectory for many years to come.

Oh, and I am fairly confident that we won't be seeing anything even remotly approaching a "double-dip" in the U.S. economy! That's mostly just hype from the Right who would dearly love to see such an eventuality, sick little buggers that they are....
post #112 of 125
There is one thing I'm concerned with that could slow Apple's growth. That's the degree to which the App Store is closed. While I agree with the basic concept, I think Apple takes it too far. With all of the reports lately that developers are beginning to focus on Android, despite the lack of money to be made there, one of iOS's biggest advantages may be squandered.

Apple is getting the kind of reputation it never had before. It's becoming "Big Brother". I hope that trend stops. Apple has to let some small profits go so that they can gather bigger ones.

As part of that, I don't understand how developers like that guy recently removed from the store was allowed in in the first place. This isn't the first time a developer has done something contrary to the rules Apple has.

They must be more careful of this as well.
post #113 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Apple is getting the kind of reputation it never had before. It's becoming "Big Brother". I hope that trend stops. Apple has to let some small profits go so that they can gather bigger ones.

That seems like an impossible thing to prevent when you are the largest tech company in the world and soon to be the largest company in the world based on comparative growth rates of the other companies with massive market caps.

I am surprised that more of Apple's business isn't compared to Big Brother. Futurama has made this comparison several times, most recently last week for the "EyePhone" episode which is actually inserted in the eye socket.
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post #114 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

That seems like an impossible thing to prevent when you are the largest tech company in the world and soon to be the largest company in the world based on comparative growth rates of the other companies with massive market caps.

I am surprised that more of Apple's business isn't compared to Big Brother. Futurama has made this comparison several times, most recently last week for the "EyePhone" episode which is actually inserted in the eye socket.

If they stop disallowing so many apps, that would help. If they carefully explained exactly why an app wouldn't be allowed before developers developed them, that would help. If they didn't censor apps, that would help. They have to tell morality groups that just like other platforms, they won't censor, that's up to parents. I see that MS has stated they will censor as well. That's MS, let them do it.
post #115 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

If they stop disallowing so many apps, that would help. If they carefully explained exactly why an app wouldn't be allowed before developers developed them, that would help. If they didn't censor apps, that would help. They have to tell morality groups that just like other platforms, they won't censor, that's up to parents. I see that MS has stated they will censor as well. That's MS, let them do it.

What is so many and what percentage is that of all the apps they review each week? I imagine its quite low.

I know we like to see the internet as open but this is a store that Apple is responsible for. I dont think being virtual means that Apple shouldnt be allowed to choose what kind of products they sell. Wal-Mart does sell porn but I dont see anyone getting upset about that.

Speaking of porn, the internet has been a great place for porn to thrive before the iPhone, now, and indefinitely, as far as I can tell. Apple funded the best browser engine for the mobile web, has backed HTML5 and other open standards and has created complex JS engines that I see them working both ends of the business. If they were internally concerned about questionable material they wouldnt have invested so much time and money into making Safari such a treat to use and given questionable content vendors a great place to push their wares. What is preventing the porn industry from doing what they did to with the desktop browser for the past two decades on the mobile browser, too?
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post #116 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

What is “so many” and what percentage is that of all the apps they review each week? I imagine it’s quite low.

I know we like to see the internet as open but this is a store that Apple is responsible for. I don’t think being virtual means that Apple shouldn’t be allowed to choose what kind of products they sell. Wal-Mart does sell porn but I don’t see anyone getting upset about that.

Speaking of porn, the internet has been a great place for porn to thrive before the iPhone, now, and indefinitely, as far as I can tell. Apple funded the best browser engine for the mobile web, has backed HTML5 and other open standards and has created complex JS engines that I see them working both ends of the business. If they were internally concerned about questionable material they wouldn’t have invested so much time and money into making Safari such a treat to use and given questionable content vendors a great place to push their wares. What is preventing the porn industry from doing what they did to with the desktop browser for the past two decades on the mobile browser, too?

It's likely a few hundred, considering Job's remarks on percentages. But it isn't the number that's important. Many developers aren't developing apps because they know, or suspect they will be rejected. It's also the perception that matters here. The publicity given to this may be way out of proportion to the seriousness of the issue, but it makes that seriousness seem to be much more. It's one major reason why Android id getting so much developer attention as time goes on. more, in fact, that iOS 4 is getting. This is NOT good!

Eventually, it will impact Apple's sales, and who knows if that hasn't happened already? Yes, it's true that Apple is selling every iOS device it can have made, and plus. But those sales could be even higher. As Android devices overtake iOS devices, this will have a larger impact. If the perception is that things are moving against Apple, they WILL move against Apple. Such is the way it works.

Apple is a bit too cocky. They're no longer the underdog who is seen as having to protect itself from bigger rivals. Now IT is one of the bigger rivals to others. People look at the underdog differently from the, er, overdog. It's one reason why MS is regarded the way it is. If Apple is seen muscling others, people will look at it that way too. And then sales will suffer, as Apple is mostly a consumer company, and consumers are fickle. They roll with the tide, whereas business and government is more steadfast.
post #117 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

That kind of thinking gets companies into trouble. Becoming complacent over current product lines is a bad place to be.

I couldn't agree more, except that's not what I said. I was replying to your post #60 in which you posed the question: "Apple has pulled itself into an expectation of coming up with explosive growth products. What if that's not possible going forward?" ....
In my reply ( post #96) my first sentence was: I don't think it's absolutely necessary to continually have new product lines to have better than average growth. The rest of my reply basically says there is a lot of new growth available, imho, with the products they already supply.
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Why go any further is what you're saying. but that's wrong, just as it was before.

If you're going to put "words in my mouth", please make sure they fit.

I suppose the misunderstanding occurred because I didn't include your whole post ... I just assumed that you would remember it.
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post #118 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by newbee View Post

I couldn't agree more, except that's not what I said. I was replying to your post #60 in which you posed the question: "Apple has pulled itself into an expectation of coming up with explosive growth products. What if that's not possible going forward?" ....
In my reply ( post #96) my first sentence was: I don't think it's absolutely necessary to continually have new product lines to have better than average growth. The rest of my reply basically says there is a lot of new growth available, imho, with the products they already supply.

If you're going to put "words in my mouth", please make sure they fit.

I suppose the misunderstanding occurred because I didn't include your whole post ... I just assumed that you would remember it.

Sorry, if what I said didn't exactly fit your statements. But I was responding to the comments you made. The gist of my earlier post was that Apple is depending on having major new lines of products. Those lines aren't deep. They're shallow. So they have few products. Apple isn't interested in presenting products that are the same as others, but with an Apple label, unless they're products that "bind" together Apple's other products, or make them able to bind to services.

What I mean by that is that they make monitors, because the MacPro needs one, and so do laptops at times. They make a router, because you need a network these days to get your Macs on the internet, and to speak to each other. They have software designed to sell more Macs, etc.

But as most of Apple's growth comes from the major new product lines, what happens IF they have no more new major product lines? That can become a problem. There's no guarantee that Apple will continue to lead a category, or that they will ever lead it. Look at the iPhone. It started with a small percentage, grew a lot, and is now being pursued by Android. The iPad has more of an advantage, as it's really the first "successful" tablet. But how long will it be before again, Android becomes a serious competitor and slows its growth?
post #119 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

If they stop disallowing so many apps, that would help. If they carefully explained exactly why an app wouldn't be allowed before developers developed them, that would help. If they didn't censor apps, that would help. They have to tell morality groups that just like other platforms, they won't censor, that's up to parents. I see that MS has stated they will censor as well. That's MS, let them do it.

Why do I get the impression that you're trying to "walk on both sides of the fence" .. at the same time?
See, in the record business, you can show someone your song, and they don’t copy it. In the tech business, you show somebody your idea, and they steal it. (Jimmy Iovine)
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See, in the record business, you can show someone your song, and they don’t copy it. In the tech business, you show somebody your idea, and they steal it. (Jimmy Iovine)
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post #120 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by newbee View Post

Why do I get the impression that you're trying to "walk on both sides of the fence" .. at the same time?

I'm not. Explain why you get that idea?
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