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iPhone 4 antenna fix could impact Apple's operating income by 1%

post #1 of 99
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The iPhone 4 antenna issue has reached a "boiling point," though investors in Apple should not overreact to the problem, a Wall Street analyst said Tuesday.

Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said in a note to investors that investors should "not lose site of the forest for the trees" in the ongoing iPhone 4 antenna controversy. He projected that a potential fix from the Cupertino, Calif., company could impact its operating income by 1 percent.

"Ultimately we believe this PR black eye takes away from near-term upside potential to our iPhone estimates, but it does not change the long-term trajectory of the iPhone," Munster wrote. "While the issue has gained significant traction in the press, the reality is we estimate this problem periodically affects 25% of iPhone 4 users given the fix is easy (a case for the iPhone), and 75% of customer choose to use a case anyway."

The analyst gave a list of options that Apple could use to resolve the antenna issue. First among those would be giving away free $29 bumper cases, which the company has said will resolve the problem by covering the metal band on the exterior of the phone, which serves as its antennas.

Another option for Apple: do nothing. Munster said that because he believes only 25 percent of iPhone 4 users are periodically affected by the issue, the company could "weather the storm," and let demand for the product speak for it self.

Finally, Apple could do a recall, an option Munster said he feels is "highly unlikely," given that the problem is resolved with a simple case. He sees the first two as realistic options for the company.

How could this happen? The analyst said it's likely a result of the secrecy used by Apple when testing its products in the wild.

"We believe Apple field tests every iPhone model. However, recall that the lost iPhone 4 prototype was disguised as an older model iPhone with a case," he wrote. "Given its proclivity to secrecy, it is possible that Apple required all test units to have a case, which would render the issue undetectable. In other words, Apple may never have known the problem existed on test units in the field because they all had cases on them."

Piper Jaffray remains unfazed by the hardware issues with the iPhone 4, and continues to expect that Apple will have strong June and September quarter results, largely putting the discussion behind it. The firm has maintained an overweight rating for AAPL stock with a price target of $351.
post #2 of 99
That's one of the first reports written by Munster that actually makes some sense.

I think the time might be right for Apple to either give away a bumper, or at least drop the price, just to make the issue go away.

Frankly, I'm sick of hearing about it.
post #3 of 99
Why in the world is anyone paying any attention to Munster? Has he EVER been right about Apple?
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post #4 of 99
Posts quoting Gene Munster really belong on the Backpage Blog based on his track record.

Same with articles quoting Shaw Wu and Katy Huberty.
post #5 of 99
I'm all for Apple making a success of the iPhone 4. However, if Apple does nothing and merely let's "demand for the product speak for itself", then I will be very disappointed in the company when law suits are the only way to get the problem addressed.
post #6 of 99
I'm glad I waited before upgrading from my iPhone 3G!
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post #7 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Why in the world is anyone paying any attention to Munster? Has he EVER been right about Apple?

That would be an interesting article for AI....an analysis of these analyst's previous positions and see just how correct their past prognostications have been.

I've often thought it would make great reading for similar analysis of say Money Magazines 'advise' for investments to see how they panned out say a year or two later.
post #8 of 99
Those bumper cases cost .40 cents to manufacture. Even charging $9.99 would be a rip off. Just give them away to the people that ask for them and everyone is happy.
post #9 of 99
Exactly how did he come up with his estimate? Figures that are neatly tied into exact quarters are suspicious at best There's bound to be some defective units, but 25% would be incredibly high, I think a 1% defect rate is considered to be high. With the Internet Bullhorn Effect, a defect rate of 1 in 10000 can be made to sound serious and widespread.
post #10 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson View Post

That's one of the first reports written by Munster that actually makes some sense.

I think the time might be right for Apple to either give away a bumper, or at least drop the price, just to make the issue go away.

Frankly, I'm sick of hearing about it.

Gene Muster just quoting what already has been said by press, blogs and customers.

Apple will probably find away to resolve this issue and like all black eyes they go away.

Lets give APPLE the chance to correct this, then we'll have a better idea of APPLES loyalty to its customers.
post #11 of 99
Apple should just admit its mistake, give away free bumpers, and be done with it.

Unfortunately, Steve Jobs is an arrogant despicable man who would never want to admit he was wrong.
Fragmentation is not just something we have to acknowledge and accept. Fragmentation is something that we deal with every day, and we must accept it as a fact of the iPhone platform experience.

Ste...
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Fragmentation is not just something we have to acknowledge and accept. Fragmentation is something that we deal with every day, and we must accept it as a fact of the iPhone platform experience.

Ste...
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post #12 of 99
... and it should be considerably more.
"Why iPhone"... Hmmm?
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"Why iPhone"... Hmmm?
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post #13 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by bdkennedy1 View Post

Those bumper cases cost .40 cents to manufacture. Even charging $9.99 would be a rip off. Just give them away to the people that ask for them and everyone is happy.

No they don't. they're not just pieces of molded silicon, but instead a combination of silicon, hard plastic and metal buttons
post #14 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by bdkennedy1 View Post

Those bumper cases cost .40 cents to manufacture. Even charging $9.99 would be a rip off. Just give them away to the people that ask for them and everyone is happy.

Please please everyone stop talking about the bumper being the holy grail as the solution, have you seen the bumpers,. they look pants,..
post #15 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by bdkennedy1 View Post

Those bumper cases cost .40 cents to manufacture. Even charging $9.99 would be a rip off. Just give them away to the people that ask for them and everyone is happy.

You base that on what? Insider info cause you work for Apple. Or some blog claiming that is the cost.

for that matter I'd love to ask Mr Munster and the rest of them for their data that shows that this is actually a problem with the iphone and not with the problem phones being in areas with crap reception. Even Consumer Reports only comments on 'areas with weak reception'. No one has shown this 'major design flaw' to be evident in an area with perfect reception.

I would also like to see Mr Munster's data about this 25% etc. I doubt he has any.

Real numbers would probably show that only perhaps 1-2% of the units sold have any kind of antenna problem and the rest is all due to being in bad reception and other factors.

All these folks are making a huge mountain out of a molehill. It's annoying to be one of the affected but that doesn't make this a 'design flaw' unless you can show the issue present with all other factors removed. And more than a small fraction of units.

No cell phone service is perfect and that's why they do things like 30 days before the ETF kicks in. Those with problems need to use it. Put your number on another phone, sync your data to your computer and go return your iphone.
post #16 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by bdkennedy1 View Post

Those bumper cases cost .40 cents to manufacture. Even charging $9.99 would be a rip off. Just give them away to the people that ask for them and everyone is happy.

That's interesting, what is your level of manufacturing experience? Have you seen one of the "bumber" cases in person? They aren't just silicone, there are three different materials in it and put integrated pretty well. They're actually quite nice, they're at least as good in quality as other $30 iPhone cases I've seen.
post #17 of 99
Apple could test their phones in the field using tear gas instead of a case. Theyd maintain secrecy, and still have real-world conditions.
post #18 of 99
Giving away bumpers is not a FIX, it is a PATCH to the real problem. Steve Jobs made a big deal over how thin and beautiful the iPhone 4 is, forcing one to use a bumper if they want there iPhone to function properly as a PHONE is ridiculous. If a car company made a vehicle with defective interior would it be acceptable if they gave you a set of seat covers that changed the feel and appearance of the seats? I love my iPhone 4, except for the dropped calls if I hold it in my left hand. Apple needs to stop selling these phones and come up with a true FIX for the problem that does not alter the iPhone experience.
post #19 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by nagromme View Post

Apple could test their phones in the field using tear gas instead of a case. Theyd maintain secrecy, and still have real-world conditions.

Haha. Best comment yet.
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post #20 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackintosh View Post

Whatever you do, don't upgrade to iOS4!! You're phone will be slow as molasses. A deliberate ploy on Apple's part to force you to buy new hardware. Once you upgrade there is no going back.

First, there IS going back. I did it myself last night to test an issue I was having with my battery. Google 'how I removed ios4' - its actually quite easy to do it; I removed iOS4 and later upgraded it again.

Second, performance is slower, but is not that bad - I've used iOS4 on my 3G and although it really is slower than 3.x was, I still prefer iOS4.
post #21 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackintosh View Post

Whatever you do, don't upgrade to iOS4!! You're phone will be slow as molasses. A deliberate ploy on Apple's part to force you to buy new hardware. Once you upgrade there is no going back.

I'd agree with that, except that after doing a hard reset (hold Power and Home for a few seconds PAST when you get the slider to power down the phone) has sped mine back up again, at least to my perception. Still getting the odd app crash when something misbehaves to the new rules, but I'm not trading the advancements in Mail and Folders away for nothin'.
post #22 of 99
I think giving away free bumpers is the wrong thing to do. Case manufacturers will be up in arms, and it's really not fair to them. If anything, Apple should give a $29.99 credit to purchase any case at any Apple store.
post #23 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackintosh View Post

Whatever you do, don't upgrade to iOS4!! You're phone will be slow as molasses. A deliberate ploy on Apple's part to force you to buy new hardware. Once you upgrade there is no going back.

A simple reboot of the GS after installing iOS 4 fixes the problem. My daughter has a 3G that ran slow after the install. Reboot, and it has been running fine for weeks.

.
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post #24 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by g3pro View Post

Apple should just admit its mistake, give away free bumpers, and be done with it.

Unfortunately, Steve Jobs is an arrogant despicable man who would never want to admit he was wrong.

How would you describe yourself? Based on your posts here....

.
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
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post #25 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by nagromme View Post

Apple could test their phones in the field using tear gas instead of a case. Theyd maintain secrecy, and still have real-world conditions.

LOL!

Best post yet!

.
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post #26 of 99
I wish people would learn how to correctly express themselves using the English language. The entire article rests on the comments from Munster, and Munster's key comment is:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Munster

... "While the issue has gained significant traction in the press, the reality is we estimate this problem periodically affects 25% of iPhone 4 users given the fix is easy (a case for the iPhone), and 75% of customer choose to use a case anyway.".

... which is basically just nonsensical verbal barf.

WTF does "... we estimate this problem periodically affects 25% of iPhone users given the fix is easy," even mean? It ain't a sentence that's for sure. It certainly isn't anything resembling communication. You could put in a hypothetically missing "and" between "users" and "given," but then the last part makes no sense either.

bah!
post #27 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by bdkennedy1 View Post

Those bumper cases cost .40 cents to manufacture. Even charging $9.99 would be a rip off. Just give them away to the people that ask for them and everyone is happy.

Care to show us the materials and manufacturing invoices to back up your claim?
post #28 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


How could this happen? The analyst said it's likely a result of the secrecy used by Apple when testing its products in the wild.

"We believe Apple field tests every iPhone model. However, recall that the lost iPhone 4 prototype was disguised as an older model iPhone with a case," he wrote. "Given its proclivity to secrecy, it is possible that Apple required all test units to have a case, which would render the issue undetectable. In other words, Apple may never have known the problem existed on test units in the field because they all had cases on them."

i am sick of these psuedo-benchwarming pundits trying their best to analyze a situation they are completely out of the loop of and desperately trying to theorize how such "mistakes" could have been made. Calming the investors? really. Frankly let the stock price slide down a bit, I will buy more.

Are you serious, no one in the wild even took the case off at least one? Believe what ever you want consistently wrong investment groups, you still think AAPL will reach $351. Which duh, you do not need an investment group full of douchebags to come up with that realization. what a bunch of maroons...
post #29 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scafe2 View Post

Please please everyone stop talking about the bumper being the holy grail as the solution, have you seen the bumpers,. they look pants,..

I've owned multiple cases for my other iPhones, and the bumper case is the best I've used.
To each his own, but that doesn't fuel FUD does it?
post #30 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

A simple reboot of the GS after installing iOS 4 fixes the problem. My daughter has a 3G that ran slow after the install. Reboot, and it has been running fine for weeks.

.

there are many side by side tests out there and 3GS is much faster while 3G is a little slower after upgrading to iOS4. On some apps i've written the load time of the app takes 8-12 seconds longer after I upgraded a test 3G to iOS4.
post #31 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgrisar View Post

The antenna is not the issue. Not any more.
The ATTITUDE has become the problem

My guess? The stock will reach 151 well before it reaches 351

lol, well it's good thing most people do not base their actions on your guess.

My guess, you are a troll

What will the next issue be with you apple loving wolves in sheep's clothing? Steve Jobs is living too long? Burning Jobs effigies while google's streetview crews roll past.
There are real issues facing the world, and you are worried about SJ's attitude. I hope you have this same contempt for BP and their CEO's
post #32 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

The iPhone 4 antenna issue has reached a "boiling point," though investors in Apple should not overreact to the problem, a Wall Street analyst said Tuesday...Piper Jaffray remains unfazed by the hardware issues with the iPhone 4, and continues to expect that Apple will have strong June and September quarter results, largely putting the discussion behind it. The firm has maintained an overweight rating for AAPL stock with a price target of $351.

What a circus!

BTW, I never realized just how many trolls inhabited the forums here. Amazing!
post #33 of 99
Apple should do nothing except release the software update to fix the issue.

The iPhone will continue to sell.

Don't worry about the stock price. Earnings report in 2 weeks will determine the price.

This crappy antenna campaign is being driven by Apple'scompetitors. They will lose.

Time will tell.


Time will tell.
post #34 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof. Peabody View Post

... WTF does "... we estimate this problem periodically affects 25% of iPhone users given the fix is easy," even mean? It ain't a sentence that's for sure. It certainly isn't anything resembling communication. You could put in a hypothetically missing "and" between "users" and "given," but then the last part makes no sense either.

I think it means that, since 75% of iPhone users use a case, only 25%, those who don't use a case, will be affected. Analyst speak, from the Alan Greenspan school of communications.
post #35 of 99
.

I just want to remind all the "Chicken Littles", name callers, and "Apple should do this or that" posters...

It has been less than 20 days since the iPhone 4 became available to 1-day-early recipients on June 23 (me included).

Put yourself in the position of Steve Jobs, Apple, et al.

How would you react?

Is there a problem that exceeds "expected malfunctions" for a first manufacturing run for this class of device?

If, so, have you identified the problem?

If, so, have you developed a fix or work around?


Remember, you are in the position of Steve Jobs and have a responsibility to Apple customers, shareholders, employees, partners alike.

Also, remember that whatever you say may have legal, political and regulatory ramifications.

I suspect that you would be less receptive to advice and knee-jerk reactions if those making them were in your position.

How would you react?

Is

.
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post #36 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by crift2012 View Post

i am sick of these psuedo-benchwarming pundits trying their best to analyze a situation they are completely out of the loop of and desperately trying to theorize how such "mistakes" could have been made. Calming the investors? really. Frankly let the stock price slide down a bit, I will buy more.

Are you serious, no one in the wild even took the case off at least one? Believe what ever you want consistently wrong investment groups, you still think AAPL will reach $351. Which duh, you do not need an investment group full of douchebags to come up with that realization. what a bunch of maroons...

Of course you know better.
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post #37 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgrisar View Post

The antenna is not the issue. Not any more.
The ATTITUDE has become the problem

My guess? The stock will reach 151 well before it reaches 351

Have you bought options betting that Apple stock will fall or is that just another FUDster shooting off his mouth?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof. Peabody View Post

I wish people would learn how to correctly express themselves using the English language. The entire article rests on the comments from Munster, and Munster's key comment is:


... which is basically just nonsensical verbal barf.

WTF does "... we estimate this problem periodically affects 25% of iPhone users given the fix is easy," even mean? It ain't a sentence that's for sure. It certainly isn't anything resembling communication. You could put in a hypothetically missing "and" between "users" and "given," but then the last part makes no sense either.

It's Munster. It would actually be news if it DID make sense.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

.

I just want to remind all the "Chicken Littles", name callers, and "Apple should do this or that" posters...

It has been less than 20 days since the iPhone 4 became available to 1-day-early recipients on June 23 (me included).

Put yourself in the position of Steve Jobs, Apple, et al.

How would you react?

Is there a problem that exceeds "expected malfunctions" for a first manufacturing run for this class of device?

If, so, have you identified the problem?

If, so, have you developed a fix or work around?


Remember, you are in the position of Steve Jobs and have a responsibility to Apple customers, shareholders, employees, partners alike.

Also, remember that whatever you say may have legal, political and regulatory ramifications.

That's exactly what all the whiners are missing. Apple has to first find the source of the problem. Sorting through all the anecdotal reports (as well as all the 'reports' from people who don't even own an iPhone) takes time.

Then, they have to find a solution. There's no magic wand, no matter how much idiot analysts wish there were.

THEN, they have to get FCC approval - which is likely to take weeks - at least.

Then they can start to implement it.

All the people screaming that Apple has to do something NOW obviously have no clue what they're talking about. You can't fix a problem until you've identified it and cleared the solution through appropriate authorities.
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post #38 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

"We believe Apple field tests every iPhone model. However, recall that the lost iPhone 4 prototype was disguised as an older model iPhone with a case," he wrote. "Given its proclivity to secrecy, it is possible that Apple required all test units to have a case, which would render the issue undetectable. In other words, Apple may never have known the problem existed on test units in the field because they all had cases on them."

Exactly what I said when the problem first appeared.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

How would you describe yourself? Based on your posts here....

Wasn't he the guy who, when AAPL was at 130, said it was going to go to 80...and then it went to 160?
post #39 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by crift2012 View Post

i am sick of these psuedo-benchwarming pundits trying their best to analyze a situation they are completely out of the loop of and desperately trying to theorize how such "mistakes" could have been made. Calming the investors? really. Frankly let the stock price slide down a bit, I will buy more.

Are you serious, no one in the wild even took the case off at least one? Believe what ever you want consistently wrong investment groups, you still think AAPL will reach $351. Which duh, you do not need an investment group full of douchebags to come up with that realization. what a bunch of maroons...

Wow! its just an opinion, geesh. Corporations do miss things. Boeing missed a biggee on its new 787 and payed big time. It happens.

BTW-What other stocks are 'duh' that you have insight too? Have you started your own investment strategy firm that can recommend these 'duh' stocks to us 'un-duh' folks? We'll pay you, because after all, 'duh', its you and not those consistantly wrong investment firms.
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post #40 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

.

I just want to remind all the "Chicken Littles", name callers, and "Apple should do this or that" posters...

It has been less than 20 days since the iPhone 4 became available to 1-day-early recipients on June 23 (me included).

Put yourself in the position of Steve Jobs, Apple, et al.

How would you react?

Is there a problem that exceeds "expected malfunctions" for a first manufacturing run for this class of device?

If, so, have you identified the problem?

If, so, have you developed a fix or work around?


Remember, you are in the position of Steve Jobs and have a responsibility to Apple customers, shareholders, employees, partners alike.

Also, remember that whatever you say may have legal, political and regulatory ramifications.

I suspect that you would be less receptive to advice and knee-jerk reactions if those making them were in your position.

How would you react?

Is
.

This is a serious question? I mean, given how Steve and Apple did react?

Ok, the easy part, I wouldn't have sent an email telling someone the problem was the way he handled the phone and to handle it differently, aka you're holding it wrong.

I wouldn't have feigned an "oh my gosh! we've used a wrong bar formula all along! you can't believe how surprised we are!" response with the pretense that "cosmetics" was the only issue and it would be solved soon via a patch.

Good for starters?
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