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Strong quarter expected, but Apple's 'antennagate' could hurt iPhone sales

post #1 of 84
Thread Starter 
Wall Street expects Apple to report another impressive quarter this afternoon, but future iPhone sales could be lower because of publicized antenna issues with the iPhone 4.

Oppenheimer

Analyst Yair Reiner has reduced his projected iPhone sales for the next quarter to 8.5 million, down from 11 million, citing well publicized signal drops that can be replicated with the iPhone 4 in weak signal areas. He expects others on Wall Street, which average predictions between 11 million and 11.5 million, will also reduce their estimates.

"We worry that the wave of negative publicity surrounding the new iPhone's wireless reception will continue to pressure AAPL's shares and potentially impact sales," Reiner wrote. "We believe the iPhone 4's antenna problem is comparable to that of other smartphones, but in the court of public opinion, perception is reality. And the perception -- created by a scoop-hungry media and Apple's newly emboldened wireless adversaries -- is that the 4 is faulty."

"For now," he continued, "the Lilliputians have Gulliver in a tangle."

Despite the lower iPhone sales estimates, Reiner has maintained an overweight rating for AAPL stock. But he has also reduced his price target from $345 to $330.

"We continue to be bullish on Apple's long-term position as the definer of the modern, mobile media consumer experience," he wrote. "But we are growing concerned that if Antennagate cannot be contained, the stock could face near-term pressure and potentially trade down to the low $200s."

Apple announced last week that it will give away free cases for every iPhone 4 sold through Sept. 30. But some would rather see Apple implement a more permanent hardware fix for the issue, in which users can cover the bottom left corner of the iPhone 4 and see their bars of signal strength drop dramatically.

Kaufman Bros.

Analyst Shaw Wu said that Apple will likely issue its vintage conservative guidance in this afternoon's earnings report. Typically, he said, investors will largely ignore the guidance because it has proven so conservative.

But this time, Wu said, the well-publicized iPhone 4 antenna issue may lead investors to think otherwise. "Given continued concerns around iPhone 4 antenna issues, it will be interesting if that stance remains," he said.

Earlier this month, Wu already lowered his sales projections for the June quarter by 1.5 million. Wu believes Apple sold 7.5 million iPhones in the previous quarter, a lower-than-expected number due to screen supply constraints and inventory drawdown. That number is well below Wall Street's consensus of 8.4 million.

Wu, however, still expects Apple to ship 40 million iPhones in calendar 2010. Lost sales due to supply issues in the last quarter will be made up in the following quarters, he said.

Wu said investors will be closely watching the reported gross margin from Apple. Kaufman Bros. is modeling 39 percent, in line with consensus, but the numbers could skew lower due to the introduction of the iPad and its aggressive $499 starting price point.

Wu still expects Apple to beat consensus estimates of $14.7 billion in revenue and $3.10 in earnings per share. He said the upside may not be as significant as previous quarters, however, when the company beat revenue by at least $1.5 billion, and topped EPS by 48 cents.
post #2 of 84
So the iPhone sales contribution will only be spectacular instead of very spectacular.
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post #3 of 84
A german octopus can predict better than these dudes.
post #4 of 84
Apple and the iPhone have a bad image with the normal general public right now. Only Apple fanbois are walking around with a "just get a case" mentality. The iPhone 4 is perceived as not being able to hold calls, whatever the reason. This makes Android look like a pretty good option.

Okay Apple apologists. Your turn now.
post #5 of 84
Antennagate lol

We should stop putting gate at the end of any little ol controversy. That whole "climategate" crap was so annoying to listen to.

As far as how their numbers will be affected, I'd be interested to see a survey of 100 people buying an iphone 4 to see if they even know about the "issue", and if they do, whether or not it was even a thought in their mind to consider not getting an ip4 because of it. My guess is, most people won't know about it, and those that do won't care (obviously since they're still buying the darn thing.)
post #6 of 84
"For now," he continued, "the Lilliputians have Gulliver in a tangle."
This isn't funny and doesn't clarify anything.
Analysts need to Analyze and stop Analogizing.
post #7 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackintosh View Post

Apple and the iPhone have a bad image with the normal general public right now. Only Apple fanbois are walking around with a "just get a case" mentality. The iPhone 4 is perceived as not being able to hold calls, whatever the reason. This makes Android look like a pretty good option.

Okay Apple apologists. Your turn now.

Not true. I for one would take a bumper or a case rather than return the whole phone, and I'm no fanboy. Far from it actually lol

The Apple "fanbois" are actually saying there is no issue, and a case or a bumper isn't needed
post #8 of 84
Hasn't the iPhone always had a bad reputation, rightly or wrongly, when it came to reception anyway? I don't think it'll be much of a problem; it's not as if people are returning them in droves.
post #9 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

Not true. I for one would take a bumper or a case rather than return the whole phone, and I'm no fanboy. Far from it actually lol

The Apple "fanbois" are actually saying there is no issue, and a case or a bumper isn't needed

And yet you have over 1000 posts on AppleInsider.

The general public does not go to AppleInsider or Engadget or blogs to read their tech news, they hear what the hear from friends and the media.

And you may not be a fanboi, but you are more interested in Apple and what goes on with Apple than general public. So I think his point still stands, as I really don't think what anyone on here decides to do or think about the issue will reflect the general public. I think a more correct way to look would be at what friends and family see from this. But beyond that, we have to just wait for earning reports as they come and see if there is a drop or not.

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post #10 of 84
In the tech bubble Apple has took a beating, that there is no doubt, but i'm not so sure in the real world.

As an iPhone 4 owner i'm still getting the impression from people who don't spend time on forums asking what all the fuss is about. I know it's been on the main news channels but they didn't go into any great detail. Most people who i have spoken to seemed to be more interested with how scruffy and skinny Mr Jobs looked.

I'm not sure these issue's have really sunk in to the minds of the general public. It'll soon blow over anyway as it always does and once production ramps up and a few more phones appear it'll just take off and be forgotten, at least by the masses anyway.

This is a great phone and great products will always win out in the end.
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post #11 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackintosh View Post

Apple and the iPhone have a bad image with the normal general public right now. Only Apple fanbois are walking around with a "just get a case" mentality. The iPhone 4 is perceived as not being able to hold calls, whatever the reason. This makes Android look like a pretty good option.

Only in your wet dreams. Your post is total fantasy, wishful thinking. Apple doesn't need any apologists on this. I actually know lots of members of the "general public" who are family members and work colleagues (both iPhone users and not) and their reaction is just the opposite of your wet dream. To a person they laugh at the overblown nature of this thing. "Just get a case" is the general public's actual mentality, no need for any fanbois on this one.
post #12 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevetim View Post

A german octopus can predict better than these dudes.




Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

Antennagate lol

We should stop putting gate at the end of any little ol controversy. That whole "climategate" crap was so annoying to listen to.

I cant stand the suffix. With this its more absurd because this isnt even a scandal. We need a new term. Any ideas?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Qualia View Post

Hasn't the iPhone always had a bad reputation, rightly or wrongly, when it came to reception anyway? I don't think it'll be much of a problem; it's not as if people are returning them in droves.

Right? The way this should read is: Apples iPhone 4 will only be backordered by one week instead of two week due to this antenna issue.
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post #13 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackintosh View Post

Apple and the iPhone have a bad image with the normal general public right now. Only Apple fanbois are walking around with a "just get a case" mentality. The iPhone 4 is perceived as not being able to hold calls, whatever the reason. This makes Android look like a pretty good option.

Okay Apple apologists. Your turn now.

That may all be true and may affect long-term sales of the phone, but in the short term, they are in such high demand that you can't buy one. There's a 3-week wait listed in the Apple online store and the white phone is going to be in very limited supply even when it's released. So from my perspective, if one considers the ip4 to be faulty or defective, the sales are even more impressive...imagine how many they would be selling if it wasn't supposedly defective.

Also, there is no "just get a case" mentality because Apple is (smartly) giving away a case with every purchase until at least September 30th.

So when the numbers come out and it's seen that Apple is breaking records again, Wall Street will punish the stock only slightly and the general public will eventually pretty much see that this was an over-reaction, unless one uses the phone in a weak signal area. Will some people use this as an excuse to buy a competitor's phone? Sure. So what? That was always the case.

At the point when you can walk into any AT&T or Apple Store and buy a phone and there are no takers, then there will be an issue. And if that ever happens, my belief is that Apple will simply rush out the next phone model early.
post #14 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackintosh View Post

Apple and the iPhone have a bad image with the normal general public right now. Only Apple fanbois are walking around with a "just get a case" mentality. The iPhone 4 is perceived as not being able to hold calls, whatever the reason. This makes Android look like a pretty good option.

Okay Apple apologists. Your turn now.

Typical Fandroid trolling. The EVO has a serious grounding problem allowing use of the device's touchscreen only when held. Android has had a number of well-publicized malicious applications distributed to its user base. Fandroids go on and on and on about phone hardware specs, but rarely ever consider the actual usability of the entire package for any particular purpose, or any particular use case. HTC and Moto come out with, perhaps, six new phones a year -- essentially, planned obsolescence on a roughly quarterly basis -- which causes serious financial and product churn in the Fandroid community...

And, yet, Apple comes out with a single new platform every summer like clockwork, and still manages to outsell, outperform, and innovate beyond all of the other manufacturers. Those are facts born by the financials, adoption rates, and customer sats. If you don't want the iPhone, don't buy it. If you bought the iPhone and don't like it, take it back. The only people that perceive the Antennagate as a real issue are the Fandroids that desperately want to strike down the industry's leading company, Apple. It's always easy to take shots at the leader...

Teddy Roosevelt once conveyed the following wisdom, which holds true today about Apple's innovation and occasional slight missteps:

It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly; who errs and comes short again and again; because there is not effort without error and shortcomings; but who does actually strive to do the deed; who knows the great enthusiasm, the great devotion, who spends himself in a worthy cause, who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement and who at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly. So that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither victory nor defeat.
post #15 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackintosh View Post

Apple and the iPhone have a bad image with the normal general public right now. Only Apple fanbois are walking around with a "just get a case" mentality. The iPhone 4 is perceived as not being able to hold calls, whatever the reason. This makes Android look like a pretty good option.

Okay Apple apologists. Your turn now.

I want the new Droid X that has the bad screen. Much better than the IP4!

"Just don't touch it that way"!
http://www.ozcarguide.com/technology...?sms_ss=reddit

http://nexus404.com/Blog/2010/07/20/...ut-of-the-box/

Let's here these quotes again from the Droid fans: "How could they let this come out of production like this", "what a bunch of idiots", "the company just made the biggest mistake ever".
post #16 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

Not true. I for one would take a bumper or a case rather than return the whole phone, and I'm no fanboy. Far from it actually lol

The Apple "fanbois" are actually saying there is no issue, and a case or a bumper isn't needed

No fanboy but 1200+ posts on AppleInsider?
post #17 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackintosh View Post

Apple and the iPhone have a bad image with the normal general public right now. Only Apple fanbois are walking around with a "just get a case" mentality. The iPhone 4 is perceived as not being able to hold calls, whatever the reason. This makes Android look like a pretty good option.

Okay Apple apologists. Your turn now.

I don't have to bare my whiteness to you! Who are you anyway?! Nobody to me.
I have the iphone 4 and there is nothing wrong with it.
Besides, it's a f***** phone!!!!!!!!!
post #18 of 84
'Could'... Really?
"Why iPhone"... Hmmm?
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"Why iPhone"... Hmmm?
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post #19 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixpencericher View Post

typical fandroid trolling. the evo has a serious grounding problem allowing use of the device's touchscreen only when held. Android has had a number of well-publicized malicious applications distributed to its user base. Fandroids go on and on and on about phone hardware specs, but rarely ever consider the actual usability of the entire package for any particular purpose, or any particular use case. Htc and moto come out with, perhaps, six new phones a year -- essentially, planned obsolescence on a roughly quarterly basis -- which causes serious financial and product churn in the fandroid community...

And, yet, apple comes out with a single new platform every summer like clockwork, and still manages to outsell, outperform, and innovate beyond all of the other manufacturers. Those are facts born by the financials, adoption rates, and customer sats. If you don't want the iphone, don't buy it. If you bought the iphone and don't like it, take it back. The only people that perceive the antennagate as a real issue are the fandroids that desperately want to strike down the industry's leading company, apple. It's always easy to take shots at the leader...

Teddy roosevelt once conveyed the following wisdom, which holds true today about apple's innovation and occasional slight missteps:

it is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly; who errs and comes short again and again; because there is not effort without error and shortcomings; but who does actually strive to do the deed; who knows the great enthusiasm, the great devotion, who spends himself in a worthy cause, who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement and who at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly. So that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither victory nor defeat.

daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aam*********************!!!
post #20 of 84
Since the first iMac with its hockey-puck mouse and no floppy, there have been people such as Blackintosh proclaiming to all who'll listen that *this* will be the mistake that finally sinks Apple and makes those deluded Apple fans repent their devotion to Steve Jobs. It hasn't happened.
Cause they continue to put out innovative products, and continue to show devotion right back to their customers. Missteps are corrected, and they move on.
Fanboy? Why yes, thank you.
post #21 of 84
The only thing that will restrict iPhone sales is supply.
post #22 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Wall Street expects Apple to report another impressive quarter this afternoon, but future iPhone sales could be lower because of publicized antenna issues with the iPhone 4.

Oppenheimer

Analyst Yair Reiner has reduced his projected iPhone sales for the next quarter to 8.5 million, down from 11 million, citing well publicized signal drops that can be replicated with the iPhone 4 in weak signal areas. He expects others on Wall Street, which average predictions between 11 million and 11.5 million, will also reduce their estimates.

"We worry that the wave of negative publicity surrounding the new iPhone's wireless reception will continue to pressure AAPL's shares and potentially impact sales," Reiner wrote. "We believe the iPhone 4's antenna problem is comparable to that of other smartphones, but in the court of public opinion, perception is reality. And the perception -- created by a scoop-hungry media and Apple's newly emboldened wireless adversaries -- is that the 4 is faulty."

"For now," he continued, "the Lilliputians have Gulliver in a tangle."

Despite the lower iPhone sales estimates, Reiner has maintained an overweight rating for AAPL stock. But he has also reduced his price target from $345 to $330.

"We continue to be bullish on Apple's long-term position as the definer of the modern, mobile media consumer experience," he wrote. "But we are growing concerned that if Antennagate cannot be contained, the stock could face near-term pressure and potentially trade down to the low $200s."

Apple announced last week that it will give away free cases for every iPhone 4 sold through Sept. 30. But some would rather see Apple implement a more permanent hardware fix for the issue, in which users can cover the bottom left corner of the iPhone 4 and see their bars of signal strength drop dramatically.

Kaufman Bros.

Analyst Shaw Wu said that Apple will likely issue its vintage conservative guidance in this afternoon's earnings report. Typically, he said, investors will largely ignore the guidance because it has proven so conservative.

But this time, Wu said, the well-publicized iPhone 4 antenna issue may lead investors to think otherwise. "Given continued concerns around iPhone 4 antenna issues, it will be interesting if that stance remains," he said.

Earlier this month, Wu already lowered his sales projections for the June quarter by 1.5 million. Wu believes Apple sold 7.5 million iPhones in the previous quarter, a lower-than-expected number due to screen supply constraints and inventory drawdown. That number is well below Wall Street's consensus of 8.4 million.

Wu, however, still expects Apple to ship 40 million iPhones in calendar 2010. Lost sales due to supply issues in the last quarter will be made up in the following quarters, he said.

Wu said investors will be closely watching the reported gross margin from Apple. Kaufman Bros. is modeling 39 percent, in line with consensus, but the numbers could skew lower due to the introduction of the iPad and its aggressive $499 starting price point.

Wu still expects Apple to beat consensus estimates of $14.7 billion in revenue and $3.10 in earnings per share. He said the upside may not be as significant as previous quarters, however, when the company beat revenue by at least $1.5 billion, and topped EPS by 48 cents.


T-mobile today released the iPhone 4 in The Netherlands, 8 hours later they closed the pre-register site because of to much requests seems like this antenna issue is a non-isue, everybody wants that iphone4, and they sell like hot cakes
post #23 of 84
You applefanboys are absurd. A guy posts 'the iphone4 has a bad image with normal people right now' and you all attack him?

As soon as I tell someone I got an iphone4, the first thing they always say is 'I heard it has problems.. is that happening with yours?' These are regular people.

Look, as someone with an iphone4, at least in my experience, the thing works great. I've had no problems, and I think this whole thing has been blown way out of proportion, even for those who are effected. The media just jumped all over it because its Apple.

But, people see this stuff, and that's what they know of the phone. Everyone knows what the new iphone is, and then it comes out and the internet goes crazy saying you cant make a call if you are holding it. If I hadn't bought one on day one before these reports flooded in, I would have been skeptical too. The fact is, there has been an absurd amount of negative press and uncertainty about this thing, and it has gotten to the general public. That will obviously effect their perception of Apple and the new iphone, even if for the most part they are still in high demand. You are a fool if you say otherwise.
post #24 of 84
To point out the obvious, iPhone 4 demand still outstrips the supply. Even if some people decide against an iPhone 4, Apple isn't losing money because they didn't have a phone to sell them in the first place. By the time supply starts catching up with demand, this won't be a major issue in the press anymore. I can't see this having a major effect on Apple's sales.
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post #25 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevetim View Post

A german octopus can predict better than these dudes.

It might go for the Blackberry! Nom nom nom nom nom mmm moar berries
post #26 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichL View Post

The only thing that will restrict iPhone sales is supply.

Agreed!!!! This, too, will turn into another "I told you so" moment where Apple exceeds expectations. Remember, the iPad was supposed to be a dud...
post #27 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevetim View Post

A german octopus can predict better than these dudes.

Dr. Otto Gunther Octavius (Doc Ock) would strenuously object to your assertion. Just ask Peter Parker about his troubles with a certain german octopus.
post #28 of 84
Well everything else is severely down today, might as well throw Apple into the party.
post #29 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by jorisx View Post

T-mobile today released the iPhone 4 in The Netherlands, 8 hours later they closed the pre-register site because of to much requests seems like this antenna issue is a non-isue, everybody wants that iphone4, and they sell like hot cakes

Yeah, but...
post #30 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by jorisx View Post

T-mobile today released the iPhone 4 in The Netherlands, 8 hours later they closed the pre-register site because of to much requests seems like this antenna issue is a non-isue, everybody wants that iphone4, and they sell like hot cakes

Considering the rep the US mobile network and, specifically, AT&T has, coupled with those with the issue saying that it only occurs when the signal is weak, those in small, dense countries with great cell coverage the pragmatic people may be thinking this is a non-issue for them.
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post #31 of 84
Are you kidding me? If anything they'll sell more now, since you basically have a sale now that gives a free bumper with every phone bought. It's a chance to customize the color of your phone for free or a $30 discount for the phone.(that is customized)

Even if you don't like customizing or cases in general, you still can pick a black one and pretend you have a prototype hidden as 3GS (just don't leave it at the bar).

I'll put on my analyst hat and say they will sell 10.5 mil instead of 11 mil for the next quarter. We'll see who is right. (you have to factor in some people who have not heard about the free bumper or have already jumped ship before the announcement and got a droid or something).
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post #32 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by qualar View Post

No fanboy but 1200+ posts on AppleInsider?

If you'd actually read a few of his posts, you'd know he isn't a fanboy. Having a lot of posts just means that you are either interested in Apple products (to varying extents) or that you like harrassing people interested in Apple products, or a mixture of both.
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post #33 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I cant stand the suffix. With this its more absurd because this isnt even a scandal. We need a new term. Any ideas?

Well the "gate" suffix just reminded me for some reason of a particular billionaire that lives up in the Pacific northwest, so how about we change it to "AntennaJob" as an homage to Steve?
post #34 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

Antennagate lol

We should stop putting gate at the end of any little ol controversy. That whole "climategate" crap was so annoying to listen to.

As far as how their numbers will be affected, I'd be interested to see a survey of 100 people buying an iphone 4 to see if they even know about the "issue", and if they do, whether or not it was even a thought in their mind to consider not getting an ip4 because of it. My guess is, most people won't know about it, and those that do won't care (obviously since they're still buying the darn thing.)

Well,... over here in the UK, most people i know who see my iP4 ask about the reception issues, it seems most have heard about it and or seen it on the TV,.. so unfortunately after the Apple fan boys have stopped buying it, Joe public may well decide to give it a miss, or at least wait until iP5 before indulging,...Shame really as besides the antenna issues the rest of the phone is great,...
post #35 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iphtashu Fitz View Post

Well the "gate" suffix just reminded me for some reason of a particular billionaire that lives up in the Pacific northwest, so how about we change it to "AntennaJob" as an homage to Steve?

I wouldnt mind an AntennaJob.
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post #36 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichL View Post

The only thing that will restrict iPhone sales is supply.

bingo

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post #37 of 84
Analysts: Case Closed on Antennagate

Quote:
Steve Jobs closed Apple's iPhone 4 antennagate affair with a press presentation last Friday, and though portions of the media are still fretting over the matter, one group of important stakeholders are convinced it's over: analysts.


http://www.fastcompany.com/1671977/a...ts-stock-price
post #38 of 84
I just ordered an iPhone4 at the SF apple store. There is a 1 month wait. Seems to me that the biggest problem facing Apple re the phone is that they can't make them fast enough.
post #39 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackintosh View Post

Apple and the iPhone have a bad image with the normal general public right now.

Such a bad image that they only sold 3 M in the first month. ANd they're still sold out everywhere - even though there still aren't enough available for most of the world.

Every other vendor would kill for such a 'bad image'.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

Not true. I for one would take a bumper or a case rather than return the whole phone, and I'm no fanboy. Far from it actually lol

Then why are you spending so much energy whining about the iPhone? Nothing is perfect. Even with its flaws - which you are parading constantly - it's your first choice. So what's with all the whining?

Quote:
Originally Posted by september11th View Post

You applefanboys are absurd. A guy posts 'the iphone4 has a bad image with normal people right now' and you all attack him?

No one attacked him, they just pointed out who wrong he is.

I guess your view is that it's OK to post a blatant lie, but it's not OK to correct the lie?
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post #40 of 84
Quote:
Originally Posted by september11th View Post

You applefanboys are absurd. A guy posts 'the iphone4 has a bad image with normal people right now' and you all attack him?
.

Had that been all he said, sure. But he also suggested that this makes the Android look good [to this general public he's such an expert on] in comparison. Therefore the point that iPhone4's are selling as fast as they can be made, and that Androids are not is a fair rebuttal. And it's always fair to attack someone who claims in advance that anyone who disagrees with him is an unthinking fanboy or apologist.
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