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iSuppli: Apple's iPad the "Tickle Me Elmo" of 2010, boosts forecast

post #1 of 13
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Market analysts at iSuppli have revised their iPad sales forecasts for 2010 from 7.1 million units to 12.9 million, writing that "product demand [is] expected to vastly exceed available supply" and calling the new mobile computing appliance "the 'Tickle Me Elmo' of the 2010 holiday season."

In response to signs that Apple is increasing iPad component production to meet surging demand, the group revised its earlier forecast set in early April. iSuppli expects iPad sales to continue increase rapidly, reaching 36.5 million units next year and hitting 50.4 million in 2012.

Rhoda Alexander, director of monitor research for iSuppli, wrote in a report, Apple has hiked its iPad manufacturing goals to suppliers across Asia. As iSuppli stated in its initial forecast, the key to continuing success will be how quickly Apple responds to issues as they arise and whether the company can align suppliers to meet demand needs. Apples acceleration of its component demand indicates that the company has raised its iPad production target for 2010. Our latest research indicates there is much higher production than previously expected for two key components: LCD panels and NAND flash."

Alexander said iSuppli "believes that the only limitation on iPad sales now is productionand not demand," and noted that "Apple has taken a very controlled approach introducing this product to new markets, with manufacturing limitations likely being the major inhibitor on how quickly iPad sales expand."

Adding new manufacturing capacity for iPad displays is critical to meeting demand, and the expanding market is resulting in incrementally better manufacturing yields, although current production is still reportedly "well below a desirable level of 90 percent" according to the group.

"Apple could further increase its 2010 production goals, but it risks sacrificing some quality control in that effort," the groups research states. "At present, iSuppli estimates Apple will stay close to the existing production targets, leaving room for further expansion in 2011."

The report said that "with nearly 84 percent share in 2010, Apples iPad virtually owns the market, and the device is expected to dominate at least through 2012." Apple is expected to revamp its iPad offerings next year, which may include giving it an iPhone 4 style camera and possibly an expansion of screen size options.

iSuppli added that "much of the competition delayed launching rival offerings following the iPad debut to allow time to reconfigure products," noting that Acer and Asus are planning to release tablets at the end of the year, joining existing tablet products that haven't seen much success yet, including hardware from Dell, JooJoo (CrunchPad) and WePad. HP is expected to release its own iPad competitor under the moniker PalmPad, but that isn't anticipated to happen until next year.

"To be sure," iSupply noted, "the major challenge for Apple competitors will revolve less around hardware but relate more to the suite of applications that can be paired with the hardware. Just like the iPhone, the rest of the market is feverishly playing catch-up to the iPad at this point."
post #2 of 13
No bad antenna stories = a slow day for commenting on AI

iPad2 16 GB
iPhone 5 32 GB

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iPad2 16 GB
iPhone 5 32 GB

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post #3 of 13
A creepy analogy. It suggests that the iPad is nothing but a brief fad, which does not seem to be supported by their prediction that Apple will sell over 50 million of them in 2012.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #4 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

A creepy analogy. It suggests that the iPad is nothing but a brief fad, which does not seem to be supported by their prediction that Apple will sell over 50 million of them in 2012.

Good one.
post #5 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

A creepy analogy. It suggests that the iPad is nothing but a brief fad, which does not seem to be supported by their prediction that Apple will sell over 50 million of them in 2012.

I agree the analogy has a bad connotation. It would have been better to say that it would be "the hot product of the season" rather than compare it to a very dissimilar product.
post #6 of 13
Unless I'm mistaken, there was never a Tickle me Elmo that retailed for US 499 to 829.00... Never

My iPad does well what it does, but there are numerous features deliberately not included that really should be, and it's terribly overpriced.
"Why iPhone"... Hmmm?
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"Why iPhone"... Hmmm?
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post #7 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

A creepy analogy.

The iPad is an immensely flexible tool that will change the way we think about mobile connectivity. It's a luxury commodity that commands a high margin, it's selling phenomenally well, and its eventual capabilities are limited to one's imagination.

Tickle Me Elmo is a doll.
A is A
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A is A
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post #8 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

I agree the analogy has a bad connotation. It would have been better to say that it would be "the hot product of the season" rather than compare it to a very dissimilar product.

For me the big problem was the discontinuity between forecasting growing sales in 2012 and comparing it to a product that sells for only a few months. That's what they get for trying to be cute. Nice headline equals loss of credibility.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #9 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

A creepy analogy. It suggests that the iPad is nothing but a brief fad, which does not seem to be supported by their prediction that Apple will sell over 50 million of them in 2012.

I was thinking the same....

Just what the hell passes for solid analysis, critical thinking, or responsible journalism these days?
Pity the agnostic dyslectic. They spend all their time contemplating the existence of dog.
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Pity the agnostic dyslectic. They spend all their time contemplating the existence of dog.
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post #10 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

I agree the analogy has a bad connotation. It would have been better to say that it would be "the hot product of the season" rather than compare it to a very dissimilar product.

Perhaps, but one of the main goals here seemed to be making people believe that the iPad is nothing more than a hot toy, or seasonal curiosity.
Pity the agnostic dyslectic. They spend all their time contemplating the existence of dog.
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Pity the agnostic dyslectic. They spend all their time contemplating the existence of dog.
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post #11 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by justflybob View Post

Perhaps, but one of the main goals here seemed to be making people believe that the iPad is nothing more than a hot toy, or seasonal curiosity.

There is an axiom, one way it is said: don't attribute to malice what can be readily explained with ineptitude. In other words, why do that deliberately when they do go on to say that even more will be sold next year?
post #12 of 13
SHOP EARLY FOR CHRISTMAS as these IPADS will be not the easiest thing to buy even with plenty of inventory to be produced.
post #13 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHarder View Post

Unless I'm mistaken, there was never a Tickle me Elmo that retailed for US 499 to 829.00... Never

My iPad does well what it does, but there are numerous features deliberately not included that really should be, and it's terribly overpriced.

Compared to what?
They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
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They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
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