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Nielson: Android flourished before iPhone 4, but Apple 'most desired'

post #1 of 127
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Echoing earlier NPD figures, newly released research from Nielsen shows that all of the vendors of Android-based phones put together outsold Apple's iPhone within the US in the quarter prior to the launch of iPhone 4.

Nielsen's reported numbers only run through the June quarter, so they don't factor in iPhone 4, the largest and most successful smartphone launch ever. What they do show is the smartphone climate before Apple's juggernaut launch hit.

Over the past year, Apple's share of the installed base of all smartphone subscribers in the US initially inched up from 21 percent to 27 percent, trading places with Windows Mobile, which conversely slipped from 27 percent to 21 percent in the second half of 2009. Apple's share then remained flat into 2010 following its fast paced holiday quarter, while Windows Mobile continued to rapidly decline.

The holiday season is when Android's share began to rapidly grow in the US. The launch of Motorola's Droid, heavily promoted by Verizon as its alternative to AT&T's iPhone, helped stoke rapid "two for one" heavily subsidized handset sales tied to record high cancelation fees. In terms of installed base, Android collectively ratcheted up from 4 percent to 14 percent, nearly passing Windows Mobile and gaining a mass about half the size of the installed base of iPhone users within just two quarters.

However, when only looking at "recent acquirers," Android's numbers look even better. This set of figures exaggerates new sales, giving Apple a major bump in share between the 2009 launch of iPhone 3GS through the holiday season, and then the appearance of a dramatic fall as sales to new buyers tapered off.

Since nearly all of Android's mainstream users are new to the platform, its numbers among recent acquirers skyrocketed over the first two quarters of 2010, jumping from 6 percent to 27 percent, passing new iPhone sales and aiming toward RIM's BlackBerry figures, which show a steady decrease among new buyers over the last year (as opposed to RIM's relatively flat share among all subscribers).



iPhone still 'most desired'

Despite the major influx of Android buyers stoked primarily by Verizon prior to the iPhone 4 launch, current iPhone customers told the research company that they were the most likely to buy another phone from the same vendor as their current one.

Nearly 90 percent of iPhone users said they'll buy another iPhone for their next mobile, compared to just 71 percent of Android users who'll buy Android again, and just 41 percent of BlackBerry users who said they'd get another phone from RIM.

In contrast, 21 percent of Android users and 29 percent of BlackBerry owners said they want an iPhone next. Just six percent of iPhone users said they'd buy an Android phone next, and only two to three percent of Android and iPhone users said they'd get a BlackBerry phone. Again, these numbers were collected before the launch of iPhone 4.



Blockbuster iPhone 4 sales not yet reported

Nielsen reports that US smartphone penetration is up dramatically, jumping from just 16% in the second calendar quarter of last year to 25% of mobile sales this year. By the end of 2011, the company predicts smartphones will pass sales of basic feature phones. That portends tremendous growth potential for all smartphone makers, but in particular offers good news for Apple, considering the virtually unlimited growth potential for smartphones throughout the near future.

Apple's strong loyalty ratings, mirrored by parallel satisfaction ratings that indicate far more users are happy with their iPhones compared to other smartphone products, suggest that Apple has prime positioning to take full advantage of the current smartphone boom.

RIM is scrambling to release both its new BlackBerry OS 6 and new phones with a iPhone form factor, as well as a new table product similar to the iPad, but all of this efforts are a quarter or two behind Apple's iOS 4 and iPhone 4.

Similarly, Microsoft is gearing up to migrate its stagnant Windows Mobile into a new iPhone-like Windows Phone 7 platform with a curated store and tightly regulated hardware, but those devices aren't set to hit until the end of the year. Microsoft also just suffered a major disaster with Verizon in the aborted launch of its KIN phones.

Palm, which demonstrated poor results over the last year in terms of both overall share and new adoption, is being groomed by HP to serve as that company's new smartphone platform and a new platform for tablet devices, but those products won't hit until later in the year or early 2011.

Android makers have taken full advantage of the lull before the iPhone 4 storm to ship waves of advanced hardware with better screens and cameras than Apple's last generation of iPhone, but both Motorola and HTC appear to be suffering production issues that may limit the number of new phones that can be shipped in the second half of the year. Apple is also struggling to build enough iPhone 4 units to meet demand.
post #2 of 127
I would be interested to see Android's numbers on competing networks... Apple really needs to get the iPhone on Verizon's and Sprints networks already.
post #3 of 127
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Since nearly all of Android's mainstream users are new to the platform, its numbers among recent acquirers skyrocketed over the first two quarters of 2010, jumping from 6 percent to 27 percent, passing new iPhone sales

So Apple's new acquisitions drop by nearly a third from a high of 34% down to 23%, while Android's explodes 450%.

Looks like Gartner called this one.
post #4 of 127
I'm sure many people held off buying an iPhone waiting for iPhone 4. The leaks probably cost Apple more than a million sales.
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post #5 of 127
How's that lawsuit against Gizmodo going?

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post #6 of 127
Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalTroll View Post

So Apple's new acquisitions drop by nearly a third from a high of 34% down to 23%, while Android's explodes 450%.

Looks like Gartner called this one.

Apple will always look different because theirs is one product following a set release timeline. It will dip, and then it will boom (as it is doing now). Android encompasses an array of devices so its growth will be more steady and predictable.

Also, this doesn't actually mean anything material (in any context). Android is sold in a range of expensive to cheap devices to a userbase who may either be excited to experience Android and its market, to mom-and-pop who aren't going to be up to dealing with the greater challenge of working on a cross-platform market and just want a nicer phone to do all the basic smartphone stuff with (photos, text messages, email, etc.). The low price point (buy one get one, low end models) increases this factor. Android will soar (in fact, I won't be surprised if it eventually does surpass iOS, provided Apple sticks with AT&T) but the material impact to Google, the Android Market, and Android Developers will be impacted in a completely different way than market share will impact the centralized and accessible iOS.

Fun statistics, but just not meaningful.

Also, it doesn't include the iPod Touch. Similarly, it would not have included a similar Android product if it were available. A shame, because such things are meaningful to competing markets and developers.
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post #7 of 127
I think Apple needs to start considering staggered releases throughout the year. I don't know how they will make it work, but the seasonality appears to give them a competitive disadvantage. If they can sustain a level production rate throughout the year, I don't know how the competitition could ever keep up!

Happy they have stock for walk-ins now at the Apple store. Really makes it more of a reasonable purchasing experience.
post #8 of 127
Fun to read. Conclusion: Symbian is no longer that popular.
post #9 of 127
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

I think Apple needs to start considering staggered releases throughout the year. I don't know how they will make it work, but the seasonality appears to give them a competitive disadvantage. If they can sustain a level production rate throughout the year, I don't know how the competitition could ever keep up!

Happy they have stock for walk-ins now at the Apple store. Really makes it more of a reasonable purchasing experience.

They do with their various productsbut they only have one iPhone.
Can't exactly stagger that through the year.
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post #10 of 127
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

I think Apple needs to start considering staggered releases throughout the year. I don't know how they will make it work, but the seasonality appears to give them a competitive disadvantage. If they can sustain a level production rate throughout the year, I don't know how the competitition could ever keep up!

Happy they have stock for walk-ins now at the Apple store. Really makes it more of a reasonable purchasing experience.

In fact, I think Apple is positioning for staggered release of their "consumer" products:

-- January (1Q) - iPad

-- June (2Q) - iPhone

-- November (4Q) iPod Touch

As to the over-interpretataion of the statistics in the article, I would prefer more reporting of facts and less skewed analysis.

But, as with most things written by DED-- "The Spin Starts Here!"

.
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post #11 of 127
Verizon/Sprint/T-mobile users are buying iTouch's.
post #12 of 127
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

But, as with most things written by DED

I really doubt he's spinning the numbers this time. It almost looks like he's saying Android's winning the battle. But then again, you can read it any way you want, that doesn't necessarily mean that the author intended it to be read that way, though
post #13 of 127
Quote:
Originally Posted by davesw View Post

Verizon/Sprint/T-mobile users are buying iTouch's.

Nope, they're buying iPhones and unlocking them. Well, the T-Mobile users anyway.
post #14 of 127
RIM isn't out yet. Look for a big come back tomorrow with the intro of Blackberry OS 6.0 with a webkit browser and some new phones.

(yes, I'm a blackberry fan)
post #15 of 127
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

In fact, I think Apple is positioning for staggered release of their "consumer" products:

-- January (1Q) - iPad

-- June (2Q) - iPhone

-- November (4Q) iPod Touch

As to the over-interpretataion of the statistics in the article, I would prefer more reporting of facts and less skewed analysis.

But, as with most things written by DED-- "The Spin Starts Here!"

.

I think this is the 'right' schedule:

-- March/April - iPad

-- June/July - iPhone

-- Sept - iPod Touch
post #16 of 127
I would like to see the real network traffic comparison..
Are iphones accessing more network resources or is the android accessing more resources.
There might be more purchases of other platforms but are those platforms really being used like the iphone.
post #17 of 127
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrFreeman View Post

Fun to read. Conclusion: Symbian is no longer that popular.

Numbers are from the US, where Symbian was never popular.
post #18 of 127
This is completely expected. In fact, this should have happened well over a year ago had Android and its vendors had their act together sooner. Anything that is freely distributed and is part of dozens of vendors should outsell a single platform from a single company.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave K. View Post

I would be interested to see Android's numbers on competing networks... Apple really needs to get the iPhone on Verizon's and Sprints networks already.

It wouldnt help much. It might make some wait for an iPhone 4 over a competing handset, but Apple seems to be selling all the smartphones they can make so spreading out across multiple carriers in the US isnt going to increase their numbers right now.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Xian Zhu Xuande View Post

Apple will always look different because theirs is one product following a set release timeline. It will dip, and then it will boom (as it is doing now). Android encompasses an array of devices so its growth will be more steady and predictable.

Youre using common sense with a troll who only wants Apple to fail at all costs. Hell take anything he can to show Apple sucks and nothing will make him think differently. He doesnt care the variances in release schedules or that iOS is only on Apples products or that Neilsen isnt counting another but smartphones. He only looks for a blemish he can spin into a weakness.
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post #19 of 127
Quote:
Originally Posted by really mobile View Post

I think this is the 'right' schedule:

-- March/April - iPad

-- June/July - iPhone

-- Sept - iPod Touch

Hopefully well get another iOS-based device launching later this year. The revamped AppleTV.
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post #20 of 127
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xian Zhu Xuande View Post

Android is sold in a range of expensive to cheap devices to a userbase who may either be excited to experience Android and its market, to mom-and-pop who aren't going to be up to dealing with the greater challenge of working on a cross-platform market and just want a nicer phone to do all the basic smartphone stuff with (photos, text messages, email, etc.).

An associate of mine falls into that mom category. She got a G1 when it first came out rather than an iPhone, only because she likes to MMS and the original iPhone did not have that functionality. She has had the G1 for about three years and has yet to download a single app or even use half of the built in apps. Just phone, txt, MMS, and camera - doesn't even use it for email. Now the battery won't keep a charge so she is thinking about getting the iPhone4 as soon as you can just walk in and buy it without waiting. Main reason is that she is switching carriers, is that she is dissatisfied with the T-Mobile coverage in the places she goes often. When she gets her iPhone, though, I think she will utilize it to a greater extent since it will be so much easier to use than Android.

I think the general impression that no-tech users have is that iPhone works better and is easier to use than Android. Since she already has an Android and wants to now get an iPhone without even so much as looking at one, just based on hearsay, kind of exemplifies my point.

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post #21 of 127
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Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

How's that lawsuit against Gizmodo going?

What lawsuit - Apple has not sued Gizmodo at all and have not announced any intention to.
post #22 of 127
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

She has had the G1 for about three years and has yet to download a single app or even use half of the built in apps.

Just an FYI, the T-Mobile/HTC Dream has been out for under 2 years in the US.
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post #23 of 127
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Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

How's that lawsuit against Gizmodo going?

Search warrant against Chen was withdrawn. Right before Jul 16.

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post #24 of 127
Apple is doing very well considering they're only on AT&T in the US. And I doubt they will ever make a CDMA-compatible iPhone for Verizon, Sprint, and a few Asian carriers. My gut feeling is that Steve wants to avoid the complexity of 1. dual assembly lines for separate GSM and CDMA iPhones and 2. dual mode iPhone with combined GSM / CDMA hardware.

By 2012 the real packet-switched all-IP 4G network will be rolled out, and from what I understand, all carriers will use exactly the same protocol. And, if the stories of a 5-year exclusivity deal with AT&T are true, that deal should end in 2012. So it just feels like Apple is rope-a-doping criticism for a few more years.

Also, in the iPhone 6 (or whatever it will be called) time frame, there will be an immense amount of pent-up iPhone lust in Verizon customers. It will be interesting to see how many users switch from Android etc. to iPhone whenever iPhone is finally available on Verizon...

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post #25 of 127
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Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Just an FYI, the T-Mobile/HTC Dream has been out for under 2 years in the US.


So two years then, which means the battery is really even crappier than I thought if it can't last even 2 years.

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post #26 of 127
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Originally Posted by mcarling View Post

I'm sure many people held off buying an iPhone waiting for iPhone 4. The leaks probably cost Apple more than a million sales.

how do you figure that? What data did you base that on? Where did you come up with that number?

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post #27 of 127
when roughly 25+ countries have all purchased the iPhone 4.
post #28 of 127
It amazes me that EVERYTIME another cellphone or cellphone platform (like in this case) comes up and beat the iphone, it's always some media outlet or some brainwashed Apple Lover saying "But ....." The thing is Apple is not perfect and nor is Android. As we found out with Apple's Antenna problem. Apple slightly acknowledged their problem but at the end Jobs said we have a problem BUT these phones have the same problem also. Bad Bad Move. And for the record, yes I have a iPhone 4 and Sprint Evo. And I have to say that my bars don't drop on my Evo, calls don't drop, 3G service is great and for battery life I'm pulling 14-15 hours. Which may not be as good as the iphone but it gets the job done for me.

But nevertheless, now this article comes out and says Android passed the iphone But the iphone blah blah blah...The point is Android passed the iphone, so just deal with it.
post #29 of 127
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Originally Posted by ivan.rnn01 View Post

Search warrant against Chen was withdrawn. Right before Jul 16.

Except that had nothing to do with a civil lawsuit.
post #30 of 127
Android is on a gazillion different handset on multiple carriers. It shouldn't be surprising that as a "collective" it'll outsell the iPhone. And it'll probably continue to do so.

The day a single Android device outsells the iPhone would truly be newsworthy.
post #31 of 127
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Originally Posted by pirarre View Post

It amazes me that EVERYTIME another cellphone or cellphone platform (like in this case) comes up and beat the iphone, it's always some media outlet or some brainwashed Apple Lover saying "But ....." The thing is Apple is not perfect and nor is Android. As we found out with Apple's Antenna problem. Apple slightly acknowledged their problem but at the end Jobs said we have a problem BUT these phones have the same problem also. Bad Bad Move. And for the record, yes I have a iPhone 4 and Sprint Evo. And I have to say that my bars don't drop on my Evo, calls don't drop, 3G service is great and for battery life I'm pulling 14-15 hours. Which may not be as good as the iphone but it gets the job done for me.

But nevertheless, now this article comes out and says Android passed the iphone But the iphone blah blah blah...The point is Android passed the iphone, so just deal with it.

It's a snapshot in time. The fact your platform is less loyal than the iPhone should have you worried.

With the world-wide launch of iPhone 4 slowly rolling out, wake me after another Quarter and see just how the market goes. I'm betting Apple's iPhone 4 will dwarf estimates and continue to expand it's reach in both sales and profits.
post #32 of 127
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

So two years then, which means the battery is really even crappier than I thought if it can't last even 2 years.

They all might be like that but it could be an odd faulty battery. This will happen with all such devices and I wouldn’t hold a product responsible unless there is proof that they choose an inferior battery for the device to cut costs.
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post #33 of 127
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

... Since she already has an Android and wants to now get an iPhone without even so much as looking at one, just based on hearsay, kind of exemplifies my point.

I think the low- to no-tech market is where Apple is aiming their iPhone marketing message now. All the iPhone 4 TV spots are about FaceTime, and they all show how people can share moments in their lives. It's no longer what tasks your iPhone helps you accomplish, it's what emotions your iPhone helps you feel.

This is exactly the opposite of the current Android ads. With uber-macho fake robot arms poking at Android devices, or 20-something males' eyes morphing into red HAL 9000 video cameras. Few if any of the Android ads have any connection to users' humanity.

Apple already has such huge mindshare that they can sell iDevices without quoting specs or prices or showing red and blue coverage maps. All they need to do is show how their iDevices improve their users' lives. And that has made a huge impact on the general public. Not just the techno-nerds. Very few technology companies have ever achieved that.

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post #34 of 127
As usual, these types of analysts reports are meaningless drivel. First, Android has more sales channels. There are a finite number of people who buy new phones each year. Some of those people will buy the iPhone. Others will not. End of report.
post #35 of 127
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

It's a snapshot in time. The fact your platform is less loyal than the iPhone should have you worried.

With the world-wide launch of iPhone 4 slowly rolling out, wake me after another Quarter and see just how the market goes. I'm betting Apple's iPhone 4 will dwarf estimates and continue to expand it's reach in both sales and profits.

By 2012, we'll see iPhone 6 (or whatever it's called) on Verizon, Sprint, and maybe a whole lot more US-based carriers. Android will be competing directly against iPhone on Verizon by then, because all carriers will be running the true all-IP packet-switched 4G protocol.

And guess what will happen. We'll see mass defections from Android to iPhone. Guaranteed. Only the philosophically challenged "freetards" will stay on Android.

Oh, and one more thing. There is no Android-based competitor to the iPod touch. And iPod touch sales are roughly the same as iPhone sales. So if you look at overall iOS device sales, even excluding iPad, iOS is still far ahead of Android.

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post #36 of 127
Quote:
Originally Posted by pirarre;

It amazes me that EVERYTIME another cellphone or cellphone platform (like in this case) comes up and beat the iphone, it's always some media outlet or some brainwashed Apple Lover saying "But ....." The thing is Apple is not perfect and nor is Android. As we found out with Apple's Antenna problem. Apple slightly acknowledged their problem but at the end Jobs said we have a problem BUT these phones have the same problem also. Bad Bad Move. And for the record, yes I have a iPhone 4 and Sprint Evo. And I have to say that my bars don't drop on my Evo, calls don't drop, 3G service is great and for battery life I'm pulling 14-15 hours. Which may not be as good as the iphone but it gets the job done for me.

But nevertheless, now this article comes out and says Android passed the iphone But the iphone blah blah blah...The point is Android passed the iphone, so just deal with it.

One quarter isn't much to say anything about. More people bought android in a quarter when apples handset was almost a full year old, with a new one coming out. Android handset makers had been releasing lots of new phones of varying capability and prices. You may get tired of people defending apple, but I'm tired of how quickly so many people like you jump on them. It seems to me we're at a point where we'll see the pendulum swing back and forth as new phones are released, new operating systems hit the market and whatnot. I wouldn't be looking for this data to show any company going anywhere for awhile.
post #37 of 127
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

The launch of Motorola's Droid, heavily promoted by Verizon as its alternative to AT&T's iPhone, helped stoke rapid "two for one" heavily subsidized handset sales tied to record high cancelation fees.

Really, Daniel? Was that last bit really necessary? True though it may be, it bears absolutely no relevance to the rest of your article and only serves to reinforce your reputation of trashing all things not Apple.

Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

I think Apple needs to start considering staggered releases throughout the year.

How about ATT/T-Mobile iPhone in June, Verizon iPhone in October, Sprint iPhone in February?
post #38 of 127
Quote:
Originally Posted by marktutone View Post

I would like to see the real network traffic comparison..
Are iphones accessing more network resources or is the android accessing more resources.
There might be more purchases of other platforms but are those platforms really being used like the iphone.

Unless iOS fixed the caching issue this may still apply:
http://forums.appleinsider.com/showt...06#post1668106
post #39 of 127
Wow. Sounds like the combined sales of HTC, Samsung, Motorola, LG, and others is greater than the sales of the iPhone by itself.

In other news, 1+1+1+1+1 > 4.

How surprising.
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post #40 of 127
Isn't Android an operating system where as iPhone is the actual phone? Can you really compare every device that has android to iPhone? I would assume you would compare android to iOS.. And motorola to apple.. Not Motorola, Nokia, HTC, etc. to Apple...

That's like saying what's a more popular gum.. Juicy Fruit or any other gum that's mint flavored..

Just seems like a pointless comparison.
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