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Apple $400: A Look at Apple’s Fundamentals Part I

post #1 of 55
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AppleInsider contributor and independent analyst Andy M. Zaky offers a sigh of caution regarding fundamental analysis and matters surrounding Apple's valuation.

Until recently, Ive been silent on the issue of Apples (AAPL) valuation because I feel that such an analysis could be misleading when improperly used to try and forecast Apples short or intermediate term price action. Far too many people are betting that Apple will see $300 or $400 a share by this January owing to its strong fundamentals. While I agree that Apple is worth a lot more than what is reflected in its current market price, a long-term viewpoint is the only practical way to rely on fundamental analysis as a basis for investment decisions. Allow me to illustrate.

On August 20, 2008, renowned Apple analyst Gene Munster argued on CNBCs Fast Money that technology stocks generally tend to outperform in the fall and winter months, and that Apples cheap valuation meant that it was time to buy the stock. Munster had a famous $250 price target on Apple at the time. In fact, nearly every analyst on the street had $200 price targets on Apple citing exceptionally strong fundamentals as a basis for their recommendations.

Yet, 30 trading sessions later, Apple (AAPL) dropped from $175.84, when Munster and several hundred other market participants were touting the stock as being undervalued, to a close of $89.16 on October 7. Apple wouldnt see $200 a share for almost 15 months. Nearly every analyst on the street flipped 180 degrees on Apple cutting price targets, estimates and citing valuation concerns as a basis for downgrading their buy recommendations to neutral and sell.

RBC analyst Mike Abramsky cut his price target from $200 that August to $125 in late September. Morgan Stanleys Kathryn Huberty cut her price target on Apple two weeks in a row from $190 to $179 on September 22, 2008 and again from $179 to $115 a share just one week later. By mid-November, Apple stabilized in the $80 to $90 a share range. Even long time Apple enthusiast Jim Cramer noted on several occasions during this period that he couldnt recommend Apple at $90 a share.

Meanwhile, Apple reported one record quarter after another, and it even posted 125% earnings growth in the September quarter of the financial crisis. The iPhone deferred revenue system masked Apples true earnings power making it very difficult for fund managers to adequately valuate the company during the post-crisis P/E compression era. And though the company was undervalued, it didnt stop the market from pricing the stock at a 70% discount to its theoretical value.

By the end of October, I published a detailed analysis demonstrating that Apple was likely the most undervalued large cap tech stock in the sector. I argued against long time Apple enthusiasts that despite what the investment community might hear from analysts, Apple was a strong buy at $80 a share. I made several arguments as to why the market would bottom in March and that Apple would see $230 within a 2-year period.

Yet, instead of seeing opportunity in Apples (AAPL) cheap valuation, Mike Abramsky downgraded the stock to underperform in January 2009, and lowered his price target to $70 a share. The market bottomed just a month and a half later, and Apple significantly outperformed the market posting nearly 250% gains in the next year and a half more evidence that fundamental analysis is only valuable when used to make long-term predictions. So what exactly did Mike Abramskys clients gain from this analysis? Abramsky, like nearly every other analyst, was literally advising clients to buy in the $180 a share range and sell at $80s a share. Is it any wonder why analysts continue to be the laughing stock of Wall Street?

The lesson here is not that so many got it wrong ahead of and during the financial crisis, however. Rather, what investors should take from this history lesson is that price targets are often good in theory but fatal in fact. Attempting to put intermediate or short-term price targets on any stock based exclusively on fundamental analysis is really an exercise in futility. And before you dismiss the financial crisis as merely an outlier, think again. Apples stock has collapsed by over 30% on at least 4 separate occasions over the past few years. See here.

Secondly, and more importantly, its very hazardous to rely on a stocks fundamentals to put a floor underneath its price. All stocks are risky assets, and have the potential to trade at very distressed levels. To unequivocally deny the possibility that Apple could see a short or intermediate term collapse just because it has strong fundamentals is one of the most dangerous viewpoints that anyone could entertain. While its very unlikely that Apple will see such distressed levels anytime soon, the point here is that strong fundamentals dont make certain stock immune from torture.

Quite often, investors are forced to unload their biggest winners in order to meet hedge fund redemption requests. Other times funds de-risk by shifting-away from an equity strategy to the safe haven of less riskier assets in fixed income. Macro-economic concerns can lead to massive short-term declines in share value. There are countless factors that can conspire to bring Apple down to extreme levels. In fact, colossal mutual funds outflows have been ongoing for the past several months, indicating that a major sell-off might loom on the horizon. With a major lack of market participants, any major event can completely unhinge this market.

Research in motion (RIMM) is a fundamentally sound institution that is clearly undervalued on any widely accepted metric of valuation. That doesnt stop the inefficient market from pricing the stock at less than half of what ought to be worth. Every stock, including Apple, is at the whim of the larger concerns of the broader market.

So just because a stock has strong fundamentals, just because it is undervalued based on widely accepted metrics, or just because everyone has $300 to $400 price targets doesnt mean that the stock will see those levels in any short or intermediate term time frame. Instead, the only advantage available to investors is having a long-term viewpoint of the markets. Apple is probably worth $400 a share but only in the long term. The only thing one can say with any degree of confidence is that Apple will probably see much higher levels some time within the next few years.

Keeping these reservations in mind, Ill be offering a thorough fundamental analysis of the company. But I would be remiss if I didnt first disclose just how cautious investors should be when entertaining these very theoretical exercises. Price targets are really just a picture of what a company ought to be trading at in a theoretically rational, and efficient market sometime in the distant future. And yet, this market is rarely rational and hardly efficient in its pricing structure. Please dont take my skepticism of using fundamentals to forecast short-term price action as general skepticism toward Apple. That would be a gross misinterpretation of this analysis. Instead, view this analysis as a sigh of caution regarding fundamental analysis in general. Stay tuned.

Andy Zaky is a graduate from the UCLA School of Law, an AppleInsider contributor and the founder and author of Bullish Cross -- an online publication that provides in-depth analysis of Apple's financial health.
post #2 of 55
Buy AAPL !!!
post #3 of 55
What can I say... You nailed, at least I totally agree and think most of those analysis failed. Apple is growing and growing and is unfair to under valuate it the way it has been. Some analytics are very miss leading. For example the last round of android share and other examples. It drives the company stock down without any reason, Apple sill new on the cell phone business and its revenue is far greater that any other smartphone company. Also in mid term Apple could release new products to compliment its phone offerings like another cheaper version or maybe an unlocked one. I think if I will get an unlocked for maybe 400.00 with most of functionality as the current iPhone many other will think the same. I don't care at all internet offered by the carrier, there is a lot of hot spots everywhere, even in my country.

Again great post
post #4 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by DCJ001 View Post

Buy AAPL !!!

thanks or summing that up. Now I won't even bother to read the article. no, really- I won't.
post #5 of 55
It's certainly worth advising people against reading too much into forecasted stock prices, but I'm afraid this analysis neutralizes that advice to a large extent by the references to "overvalued" and "undervalued" stocks. I think an even better message to investors is that no such concept exists. The markets value stocks every day. The collective wisdom of the market tells us what they are worth -- anything else is just a guess or an abstraction. Also, the markets are never rational. Whether they are going up or going down, markets trade on emotion. Once we understand these concepts, then we are prepared to treat forecasted stock prices with the caution they deserve.
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post #6 of 55
I do not trust analysts. Most of them I believe just throw dots on the wall. If you buy and sell on their recommendation, you will be bankrupt. And the ones on the TV shows are even worse, just a bunch of clowns. When they are telling you to buy, they are selling.

Why do one analysts say buy, and the other say sell? Because they are all self-serving brokerage pimps. Their actions make me sick.
post #7 of 55
Great post and very good advice.
post #8 of 55
It's only a matter of time.

Consider these:

1) iPhone 4 on more countries. like, say, China.

2) iPhone 4 on Verizon, Sprint and T-mobile.

3) iPad on more countries.

4) Cheaper iPads.

5) iPod Touch w/ Facetime and retina display.

6) the iTV

7) iAds

8) Mac sales

9) New Products
post #9 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by davesw View Post

It's only a matter of time.

Consider these:

1) iPhone 4 on more countries. like, say, China.

2) iPhone 4 on Verizon, Sprint and T-mobile.

3) iPad on more countries.

4) Cheaper iPads.

5) iPod Touch w/ Facetime and retina display.

6) the iTV

7) iAds

8) Mac sales

9) New Products

Don't forget that Apple now has 300 Apple Stores, that are always packed with people spending money, with many more to come!
post #10 of 55
I enjoyed the first part of the article and am looking forward to being more informed with the next one. It makes sense that any stock value can drop due to outside influences, but I am also concerned about the leadership at Apple. Steve Jobs has a serious disease and even though he appears to be in better health at this time, that could change any time and the stock will certainly take a serious hit if he became ill again, or even worse passed away. I know there are good people in the shadows, but the public may not know that and a sell-off would be a possibility. One of the pitfalls of Apple being a media darling is that it's value is based on the perception of it's stock holders and the media. Bad press is likely to hurt. On the other hand, the antennae-gate media blitz only caused a slight dip in the stock as sales of iPhone4s has not relented. I personally believe that Apple will keep going strong for quite a while because it has so much room for growth in all segments of it's hardware products other than the iPod. Fortunately, Apple did not rest on it's laurels with the iPod, it's first titan, and it has and will keep developing other innovative products.
What really impresses me most about Apple is that based on some of its' patent applications, they are truly thinking outside of the box and may announce something new, in a category that we would never would have dreamed of. Steve, Jonathan and others with Apple are the Walt Disney's of the 21st century.
post #11 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by DCJ001 View Post

Don't forget that Apple now has 300 Apple Stores, that are always packed with people spending money, with many more to come!

Agree.
post #12 of 55
Not many months ago, it was said that Apple had passed Microsoft and was now the second largest company in the US, Exxon being number one, based on market cap (share price · number of shares). It may have been temporary, and perhaps it was one way of calculating market cap, and maybe I remember wrongly but nevertheless…

It has grown from small to where it is now, but that can’t go on forever or what? After all, the number of buyers isn’t infinite, and Apple still only sells products on this planet.

So when it reaches $400, it must stay there, or what?
post #13 of 55
Thanks for the post. I always appreciate your contributions to AppleInsider. It must be discouraging to read some of the comments that follow your carefully written article, but please keep up the good work.
post #14 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zod View Post

Not many months ago, it was said that Apple had passed Microsoft and was now the second largest company in the US, Exxon being number one, based on market cap (share price · number of shares). It may have been temporary, and perhaps it was one way of calculating market cap, and maybe I remember wrongly but nevertheless

It has grown from small to where it is now, but that cant go on forever or what? After all, the number of buyers isnt infinite, and Apple still only sells products on this planet.

So when it reaches $400, it must stay there, or what?

Apple has less than 10% of the CPU market (best guess)
Apple has less than 14.2% of the smartphone market (sales Q22010)
Apple has less than 2.7% of the cell phone market (sales Q22010)

The only business where Apple dominantes is the iPod/iTunes business. iTunes makes ver little profit, while iPods make some good cash - but that is a maturing market, and the sales are largely upgrades. If Apple was only iPods I woud agree with you.

There is lots of room for growth on the other three, and there is evidence that the iPod 'halo effect' has morphed into an 'iPad halo effect'. And the iPad is bought already by many corporations... Much growth to be expected in the CPU arena, imho. E.g. a large State University I work at seems to be shifting form Dells to iMacs (and installs Windows) because of the great quality reputation, and lower cost of ownership (I'm not sure the lower cost of ownership holds up with Windows installed, but that is what is happening)

The main question is: Can Apple keep those phenomenal margins, thus profits, and can it continue to innovate as much as it has with a bare bone research budget [yes Apple research budget is a (small?) fraction of Microsoft]

The other question that plagues me, what is Apple going to do with all of that cash???? If the growth continues, the few 100 mills being spent on acquisitions is not going to make much of a dent in the Billions of $ cash pile... And Apple can't really buy a really big company that costs billions, the culture would not transfer or translate, and there would be a serious risk of beginning a rot from within form loss of the culture. Better if Apple grows, and in so has everyone on board, culturally speaking. And, do not underestimate the importance of corporate culture for long term success! Short term success with cost cutting, lucky product, etc. possible. Sustained success and continued innovation needs more than managers minding the bottom line, it needs a certain way of thinking from every employee, all of the time.

I smell a dividend of Alpine proportions some day, better own stock to get your piece of that action.

Just some thoughts.
post #15 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zod View Post

...
So when it reaches $400, it must stay there, or what?

No, because buyers with the stock will sell to make a profit. And down it will go again. The value will go up only for as long as people think it's "undervalued". When it has the "right" value buyers will want to turn in a profit, which will affect the price because everyone *else* will think "hey I better get out too". I'm not an expert, but up and down is the natural order of things.

I still can't see how the stock will be worth another $100, especially with the competition from Android on the iphone front. But still, anything's possible.
post #16 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by OC4Theo View Post

I do not trust analysts. Most of them I believe just throw dots on the wall. If you buy and sell on their recommendation, you will be bankrupt. And the ones on the TV shows are even worse, just a bunch of clowns. When they are telling you to buy, they are selling.

Why do one analysts say buy, and the other say sell? Because they are all self-serving brokerage pimps. Their actions make me sick.

I agree with you, but I can tell you that Andy Zacky has a phenomenal track record in predicting AAPL, better than anyone else. By far.

And he puts his money where his mouth is, at least he says he does: In late 2008, when AAPL was in the $80's, he wrote in his blog that he was selling his house to put all the money into AAPL. At the time, he wrote that AAPL was a $200+ stock (the only one who thought the same publicly, was Gene Munster. Munster got a lot of flak for holding steady on a target price over $200 when AAPL was tanking)

I don't know if he went through with converting his house into AAPL stock, but you got love that passion for the stock.
post #17 of 55
On another scale, the US dollar seems to be headed for the shock of deflation in the short term and very high inflation (some think it may suffer hyperinflation, but there is no sure proof of that) in the longer term. This will also drastically affect stock prices and the ability of US companies to compete. There is some very sloppy thinking going on in the White House and the Fed in an attempt to manage markets and pick business winners and losers right now.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

Reply
post #18 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by applestockholder View Post

I agree with you, but I can tell you that Andy Zacky has a phenomenal track record in predicting AAPL, better than anyone else. By far.

And he puts his money where his mouth is, at least he says he does: In late 2008, when AAPL was in the $80's, he wrote in his blog that he was selling his house to put all the money into AAPL. At the time, he wrote that AAPL was a $200+ stock (the only one who thought the same publicly, was Gene Munster. Munster got a lot of flak for holding steady on a target price over $200 when AAPL was tanking)

I don't know if he went through with converting his house into AAPL stock, but you got love that passion for the stock.

Agreed. Andy does a tremendous job. Thanks for the article, Andy. We could sure use more of your commentary.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

Reply
post #19 of 55
Apple's topped, along with the rest of the market. Sell everything and wait for a better day.
post #20 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mister Snitch View Post

Apple's topped, along with the rest of the market. Sell everything and wait for a better day.

If that happened, it would be a great buying opportunity, given my time horizon.
post #21 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by DCJ001 View Post

Don't forget that Apple now has 300 Apple Stores, that are always packed with people spending money, with many more to come!

Are they? The ones I have been in were full of people browsing the internet on the computers, it made it difficult to look at things.
post #22 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by applestockholder View Post

Apple has less than 10% of the CPU market (best guess)
Apple has less than 14.2% of the smartphone market (sales Q22010)
Apple has less than 2.7% of the cell phone market (sales Q22010)

The only business where Apple dominantes is the iPod/iTunes business. iTunes makes ver little profit, while iPods make some good cash - but that is a maturing market, and the sales are largely upgrades. If Apple was only iPods I woud agree with you.

There is lots of room for growth on the other three, and there is evidence that the iPod 'halo effect' has morphed into an 'iPad halo effect'. And the iPad is bought already by many corporations... Much growth to be expected in the CPU arena, imho. E.g. a large State University I work at seems to be shifting form Dells to iMacs (and installs Windows) because of the great quality reputation, and lower cost of ownership (I'm not sure the lower cost of ownership holds up with Windows installed, but that is what is happening)

The main question is: Can Apple keep those phenomenal margins, thus profits, and can it continue to innovate as much as it has with a bare bone research budget [yes Apple research budget is a (small?) fraction of Microsoft]

The other question that plagues me, what is Apple going to do with all of that cash???? If the growth continues, the few 100 mills being spent on acquisitions is not going to make much of a dent in the Billions of $ cash pile... And Apple can't really buy a really big company that costs billions, the culture would not transfer or translate, and there would be a serious risk of beginning a rot from within form loss of the culture. Better if Apple grows, and in so has everyone on board, culturally speaking. And, do not underestimate the importance of corporate culture for long term success! Short term success with cost cutting, lucky product, etc. possible. Sustained success and continued innovation needs more than managers minding the bottom line, it needs a certain way of thinking from every employee, all of the time.

I smell a dividend of Alpine proportions some day, better own stock to get your piece of that action.

Just some thoughts.

Apple is growing faster in foreign countries and the market penetration of the Mac worldwide is less than 5%... so the current average growth rate of 30% is sustainable. Same for the iPhone. The iPad is totally new category that is in hypergrowth.

Apple is a gorilla company and this kind of company tend to beat forecasts for many years till the market gets saturated... like MSFT, INTC, CSCO in their heyday. Got to sell when sales start to tapper... actually before then. The exit strategy is tricky.
post #23 of 55
Simple logic tells you that an accurate stock analyst cannot exist.

If they're good at predicting stock prices, they won't be sharing their knowledge. They'd instead be making a killing in the stock market.
post #24 of 55
Finally, an article aimed at all the "Go home kid, I'm an Apple shareholder!" posters
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post #25 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by tundraboy View Post

Simple logic tells you that an accurate stock analyst cannot exist.

If they're good at predicting stock prices, they won't be sharing their knowledge. They'd instead be making a killing in the stock market.

Contrary to that belief, I do wish to help people as much as possible, and I have made a killing in the markets. Those two ideas aren't diametrically opposed though intuition says they might be.
Andy M. Zaky
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post #26 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfanning View Post

Are they? The ones I have been in were full of people browsing the internet on the computers, it made it difficult to look at things.

Most apple shops are facebook-cafes. At least in the UK.
post #27 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by andyzaky View Post

Contrary to that belief, I do wish to help people as much as possible, and I have made a killing in the markets. Those two ideas aren't diametrically opposed though intuition says they might be.

Zero-sum-game seems to imply that, the more people you help, the less you can help each...
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post #28 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by ranReloaded View Post

Zero-sum-game seems to imply that, the more people you help, the less you can help each...

The market's too big for any one person to have that effect. Unless you literally own a few % points of the outstanding shares.
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post #29 of 55
Nice reminder to people, although even a reasonably serious amateur investor would be aware of these points.

Just didn't have significant capital in 2008-9 to take advantage of this. Oh well, there's still at least 10-20% (if not 50%) upside in the 'long term' as you put it
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post #30 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aslak View Post

Most apple shops are facebook-cafes. At least in the UK.

The strategy is that many of these facebook/twitter/email users are first time Mac users being introduced to the Mac and may well become future customers. Getting people to try out your product is a great way to introduce them to what you're selling. It seems to work
post #31 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by All Day Breakfast View Post

The strategy is that many of these facebook/twitter/email users are first time Mac users being introduced to the Mac and may well become future customers. Getting people to try out your product is a great way to introduce them to what you're selling. It seems to work

Fine in theory, but I'm fairly sure the number of people who come in to the shop for some casual browsing far outweigh the number of people interested in the products. Apple don't mind this because the place "looks" busy. As a potential buyer, it puts me off no end which is why I avoid the place except to get a hands on with the latest gadget.
post #32 of 55
I'm planning to sink 40 to 50,000 euros into Apple stock in the next few months. I'm willing to bet that in a year or two the stock will be worth quite a bit more; I don't think 44% growth is unreasonable.
post #33 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by JakeBarnes View Post

I'm planning to sink 40 to 50,000 euros into Apple stock in the next few months. I'm willing to bet that in a year or two the stock will be worth quite a bit more; I don't think 44% growth is unreasonable.

Truly experienced market participants will read a post like yours with great alarm. Once the fish start jumping in and expecting returns like that, the end is nigh
post #34 of 55
Good analysis and defines why I do not invest in public companies. Market price is determined by people who know little if anything about the companies other than what they read in sources such as this; know nothing about real businesses; and are masters of manipulation.

Rumor and innuendo drive the market - not facts. Wall Street Brokers and Analysts are very good at sensing public perception and acting on it. That has nothing to do with fundamentals or business acumen.

Does anyone really know what goes on on Wall Street? This is slightly off-topic but instructive. I was working on a deal for a client with a large investment bank. Went to lunch and in the elevator overhead 2 guys discussing a similar transaction for a competitor. Reported it to the manager with whom I was working. Later that day I went to a meeting in a different building. Same 2 guys in an elevator repeating what I had heard earlier. You figure it out.
post #35 of 55
So basically this feature article was to remind us that Apples stock has a ceiling, and that it can, *gasp* even go down?

Thanks...
post #36 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aslak View Post

Fine in theory, but I'm fairly sure the number of people who come in to the shop for some casual browsing far outweigh the number of people interested in the products. Apple don't mind this because the place "looks" busy. As a potential buyer, it puts me off no end which is why I avoid the place except to get a hands on with the latest gadget.

Not even close. Thats the entire point. People come in because they WANT to touch the stuff. This is everything a brick and mortar retailer hopes for. If you don't understand how this inevitably leads to fantastic sales numbers, then you don't understand retail at all.
post #37 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by mobility View Post

The market's too big for any one person to have that effect. Unless you literally own a few % points of the outstanding shares.

Truly. I always have to laugh when people show up on stock discussion sites shouting BUY! BUY! BUY! or SELL! SELL! SELL! as if their touting is going to change anyone's opinions, let alone, move the markets.

I don't always completely agree with Andy's analysis, but I think he does serious AAPL investors a real service. Years ago we had the aaplinvestor.com site, also much better at forecasting results for Apple than the so-called pros, but he gave that up a long time back. Andy is definitely filling a void and deserves to be thanked for his efforts.
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post #38 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfanning View Post

Are they? The ones I have been in were full of people browsing the internet on the computers, it made it difficult to look at things.

That's true, but they're also apparently buying: Apple stores are reputed to have the highest sales per square foot of any mass-market retailer. What I haven't seen are year over year average sales numbers for stores open at least 13 months, which is the industry standard for defining retail success.

I was negative on Apple opening retail stores, but like almost everything else they've done, they were right and they made it a winner. It's one of the reasons Apple was able to weather the recession so well (another surprise to me) and proof that consumers are willing to spend, even in tough economic times, if you have the right formula. The retailers who are getting hurt in this recession (most of them) sell the "same old" tired merchandise in the "same old" environments with poor customer service. When the economy was running hot, they were able to get away with it. But in a tough economy, it doesn't work.

The thing you see at Apple stores that you don't see elsewhere is a level of energy and excitement that other retailers don't seem able to replicate. You don't sense it at other retailers selling phones, you don't see it in electronics showrooms (you would have thought that large screen TV, 3D and high-quality audio retailers could replicate this) and you certainly don't see it at other computer retailers.

When Jobs leaves Apple, he should go teach at Harvard Business School to train the next generation of our business leaders. Our current business leaders, for the most part, are only concerned about their bonuses and stock options, not creating the "next great thing."
post #39 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

....Quite often, investors are forced to unload their biggest winners in order to meet hedge fund redemption requests. Other times funds de-risk by shifting-away from an equity strategy to the safe haven of less riskier assets in fixed income......

While I agree that this article is well written and basically on the spot about Apple and the market, I just have to wonder....

These anal --- yst seem to be saying either whats put in front of them by others,,, or actively trying to push Apple stock up or down..... maybe so they can advise those that they sell their services to to go the other way.?????

Watching people write about Apple like they sit on the Board of Dir.. makes me wonder about their motives.... Just stupid or with a motive.

Tell your clients to sell Apple at 275... Then post articles repeating every bad but basically not true thing you can find..... as Apple stock hits 230... tell your clients to buy........ then blog how Apple is a great value and watch the stocks rise. (or do the opposite) either way watch the stock bounce.

Warren Buffet said...... buy stock in a company you know and like how they operate. That is the only true metric.... And buy for the long term.

Just a thought,
en
post #40 of 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoetmb View Post

When Jobs leaves Apple, he should go teach at Harvard Business School to train the next generation of our business leaders. Our current business leaders, for the most part, are only concerned about their bonuses and stock options, not creating the "next great thing."

A great thought. Or he should write a book. I wonder if he's got that urge, though. Steve has always been so intensely private, my guess is he's never going to give us that peek behind the veil.
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