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One third of iPhone owners waiting for Verizon to upgrade

post #1 of 131
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A survey of 1,000 consumers indicates that a significant number of subscribers are waiting to purchase the expected Verizon iPhone 4, indicating new threats for both AT&T and Android.

A report by market research firm Morpace shows that the majority of interest being expressed in a Verizon-compatible iPhone comes from existing Verizon customers.

While 29 percent of all respondents said they were somewhat or very likely to purchase an iPhone on Verizon's network, 51 percent of current Verizon subscribers said they were waiting to buy it. Those sales would likely come from Android and BlackBerry customers.

Among all AT&T subscribers, 23 percent said they'd be interested in switching to Verizon for an iPhone, while 22 percent of Sprint subscribers and 20 percent of T-Mobile customers said the same. However, among AT&T's iPhone users, 47 percent said they "would consider" a switch to Verizon once the iPhone becomes available there.

Additionally, over a third existing iPhone users who have not yet upgraded to the latest iPhone 4 said they were waiting for it to become available on another carrier before they upgrade, indicating significant pent up demand over and above the record sales Apple has already seen on AT&T since the launch of iPhone 4.

At the same time, the fact that only a third of users who decided not to upgrade to iPhone 4 waited because they wanted the option of another carrier seems to be good news for AT&T, and flies in the face of claims that most users aren't satisfied with AT&T.

The responses seem to align with the unexpectedly high satisfaction rates iPhone users expressed for AT&T in a recent Yankee Group survey that said 73 percent of US iPhone users were happy with their carrier.

Additionally, a ChangeWave report indicates that only 13 percent of iPhone users said they were "very likely" to switch to Verizon, while another 18 percent said they were only "somewhat likely" to make the switch.



The impact of broader iPhone 4 availability in the US

In its report, Morpace concluded that "the impact on other Verizon smart phones that have not previously had to compete directly with the iPhone may be significant if Verizon begins to carry the iPhone. It could drastically impact the purchase of other phones."

The lack of availability of the iPhone on Verizon has offered Android a fertile niche to expand its sales as a platform, allowing Android to outpace Apple's iPhone in unit sales in the US in stark contrast to most other markets globally, where Android has experienced real growth but has not yet rivaled iPhone sales.

The report also noted that a sharp increase in iPhone subscribers on Verizon may result in "concerns over how the Verizon network will handle the bandwidth demands of iPhone users."

Growing tensions between Apple and AT&T appear to now outweigh the benefits Apple has enjoyed in its exclusive partnership with the carrier in the US. Along with the increased competitive threat from Android-based devices on Verizon, this has resulted in circumstances that make it appear all but certain that Apple will launch a Verizon model of the iPhone early next year, with new evidence regularly pointing to that inevitability.
post #2 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

The report also noted that a sharp increase in iPhone subscribers on Verizon may result in "concerns over how the Verizon network will handle the bandwidth demands of iPhone users."

Yes, Verizon gets a taste of its own medicine. Don't you hate it when they brag about their "superior" network, and it drops calls like AT&T's? Let's bring the Verizon network down, guys!
post #3 of 131
Count me in this group. Enjoying by 3G on T-Mobile until January.
post #4 of 131
"51% of verizon subscribers waiting to buy it"

If that's true then apple needs to start speeding up iPhone 4 production asap.
post #5 of 131
It will be interesting to see if AT&T customers make the switch in the same numbers that are complaining.

I remember all the people that said the iPhone was too expensive, then the $99 version came out and not many folks bought it, or not as many people at they thought.
post #6 of 131
By the time Apple makes the deal with Verizon and cranks up the Foxcon sweatshop, my iP4 contract will have long expired. Apple can't execute.
post #7 of 131
This is interesting... but the flip-side is that the iPhone 4 is still sold out at 50% of Apple stores.
post #8 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackintosh View Post

By the time Apple makes the deal with Verizon and cranks up the Foxcon sweatshop, my iP4 contract will have long expired. Apple can't execute.

I wouldn't blame Apple for not going with Verizon yet. There's so much involved here that we couldn't possibly know about. Don't get me wrong... I love my iPhone and want to see Apple sell as many of them as possible. More iPhones = more money for iPhone developers. That = even better apps for us.
post #9 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by bartfat View Post

Yes, Verizon gets a taste of its own medicine. Don't you hate it when they brag about their "superior" network, and it drops calls like AT&T's? Let's bring the Verizon network down, guys!


I've been telling that to all my buddies. I can't for everyone to jump from AT&T to Verizon so my call quality and network speed improve drastically.
post #10 of 131
If I read the headline correctly, then yes, I am indeed "waiting for Verizon to upgrade"...their network to LTE.
post #11 of 131
I was an iPhone 3G user until I moved to an area that ATT doesn't serve well. Now I have a Droid on Verizon and I will drop it the second an iPhone is available on Verizon (or T-Mobile for that matter, whoever gets it first).
post #12 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by bartfat View Post

Yes, Verizon gets a taste of its own medicine. Don't you hate it when they brag about their "superior" network, and it drops calls like AT&T's? Let's bring the Verizon network down, guys!

AT&T's network was bad in 2007 - when (comparatively) few iPhones were on it. The Droids have been selling hand over fist on Verizon and no one that I am aware of has complained about it. And Droid users gobble up even more data than iPhone users.

http://www.cultofmac.com/study-droid...m-iphone/52792

So good luck bringing down the network. And since you'll be on Verizon, enjoy use of your phone in places that you could only dream about with AT&T.
post #13 of 131
I think I'd rather see it on T-mobile...at least till LTE gets blanketed everywhere
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post #14 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

This is really funny. Verizon in Q1 2010 had 92.8 million customers and this poll was a sample of 1000. And this is suppose to mean something?

Have you ever heard of modern polling techniques? Google "Gallup".
post #15 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

This is really funny. Verizon in Q1 2010 had 92.8 million customers and this poll was a sample of 1000. And this is suppose to mean something?


No kidding, a 1,000 people? What a joke, a 'sample' is being generous.
post #16 of 131
I would consider it if they charged the same as ATT for the same features. Would Verizon really give up nickel and diming for every little thing? I'm sure Apple would not want them to.
post #17 of 131
I think Apple will get a big boost in iPhone sales if they pick up Verizon. I know a lot of people who would switch from their Android phones. Currently most of them use an Android phone to make calls and surf the net, but also carry an iPod touch for Apps. Apple may see slight cannibalization of iPod sales if they pick up Verizon as a carrier.
post #18 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

Of course. But this is what grabbed me.

"A survey of 1,000 consumers indicates that a significant number of subscribers are waiting to purchase the expected Verizon iPhone 4, indicating new threats for both AT&T and Android. "

When you have a customer base of 94 million and the term "significant number" is used after polling 1000 customers I would say thats a bit over the top and the poll is pretty much meaningless.

Also to say that Android could suffer when it was just reported that 200k units are being activated per day is also a bit much with only 1000 polled.

Clearly Verizon customers would be interested in having the iPhone come to Verizon as I am sure Sprint customers would be also if Apple made a CDMA version of the iPhone I see no reason for them not to roll it out to both Verizon and Sprint.

Don't want to belabor the point, but I checked something from one of my textbooks from a few years ago on polling. The relevant info is for a sample of 250,000,000 (US population then), only 1500 people needed to be asked to get the results within +/- 3%. So as long as the poll was scientific, 1000 people for just over 90,000,000 people would yield valid results.

On Sprint, the reason I doubt that the iPhone will go there is because Sprint is going Wi-Max for 4G. As surprising as it is that Apple will apparently support 2 wireless technologies with the iPhone soon, it is extremely doubtful that they would continue to do so. But if the goal is stopping Android, who knows?

PS - What was most surprising about this article is that Daniel is finally acknowledging the need for a Verizon iPhone!
post #19 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by esummers View Post

I think Apple will get a big boost in iPhone sales if they pick up Verizon. I know a lot of people who would switch from their Android phones. Currently most of them use an Android phone to make calls and surf the net, but also carry an iPod touch for Apps. Apple may see slight cannibalization of iPod sales if they pick up Verizon as a carrier.

It would give Apple a boost, but I doubt that there will be a major influx of android users switching to the iPhone even if its on another carrier. I think most people have made peace with the iPhone being tethered to AT&T, and have simply moved on from it. For example, I'm switching from my 3GS to a Droid X in the coming weeks on Verizon. Even if the iPhone were to land on that carrier, it wouldn't matter to me. I chose the Droid X based on form factor, software and network.

A Verizon iPhone would satisfy one of those complaints, but it has a lot of catch up to play to the Droid X for my purposes, frankly ^_^.
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post #20 of 131
There have been several surveys where a significant number of Verizon users say they want the iPhone.

If what you say were true, Droid X would be selling as well for Verizon as the iPhone is selling for AT&T, but that is not the case at all.

What number of AT&T customers want the Droid X?

Quote:
Originally Posted by yuusharo View Post

It would give Apple a boost, but I doubt that there will be a major influx of android users switching to the iPhone even if its on another carrier. I think most people have made peace with the iPhone being tethered to AT&T, and have simply moved on from it.
post #21 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by yuusharo View Post

Even if the iPhone were to land on that carrier, it wouldn't matter to me. I chose the Droid X based on form factor, software and network.
A Verizon iPhone would satisfy one of those complaints, but it has a lot of catch up to play to the Droid X for my purposes, frankly ^_^.

Can you be more specific about this? What makes you like the Droid X better besides Verizon?
post #22 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

Thats pretty much what I was thinking even more so when you start throwing around the term "significant number".


Come on Extreme ... you know very well how polls are done.... by a small sample. Is it 100% accurate, 100% of the time, probably not .... but it's success rate is quite high. The following info is from Gallup (1997) but still relevant today.

The Number of Interviews or Sample Size Required:

"One key question faced by Gallup statisticians: how many interviews does it take to provide an
adequate cross-section of Americans? The answer is, not many -- that is, if the respondents to
be interviewed are selected entirely at random, giving every adult American an equal
probability of falling into the sample. The current U.S. adult population in the continental
United States is 187 million. The typical sample size for a Gallup poll, which is designed to
represent this general population, is 1,000 national adults."

note: the bold markings are mine.
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post #23 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

Of course. But this is what grabbed me.

"A survey of 1,000 consumers indicates that a significant number of subscribers are waiting to purchase the expected Verizon iPhone 4, indicating new threats for both AT&T and Android. "

When you have a customer base of 94 million and the term "significant number" is used after polling 1000 customers I would say thats a bit over the top and the poll is pretty much meaningless.

Also to say that Android could suffer when it was just reported that 200k units are being activated per day is also a bit much with only 1000 polled.

Clearly Verizon customers would be interested in having the iPhone come to Verizon as I am sure Sprint customers would be also if Apple made a CDMA version of the iPhone I see no reason for them not to roll it out to both Verizon and Sprint.

Read this: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3704453/

Here's the most important part:

"While a poll of 100 people will be more accurate than a poll of 10, studies have shown that accuracy begins to improve less at about 500 people and increases only a minor amount beyond 1,000 people."

That's how polling is done. So when the article says that a significant number of people will jump ship from AT&T for Verizon and Android may be hurt, they're using actual scientifically proven data collection techniques.

Acting like their numbers are off when they're actually following a proven method makes you look bad, not them.
post #24 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by shadash View Post

Can you be more specific about this? What makes you like the Droid X better besides Verizon?

Well it's got extra buttons and it's ugly and chunky and it doesn't have that annoying Retina display and it's got less apps and it's got worse apps and the multimedia player sucks.

But you can hook it to your TV because of how often you're gonna want to use it as your media hub. Oh, and it's not made by those bastards at Apple who so many people just hate for no reason other than because other people love them.
post #25 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by guch20 View Post

Read this: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3704453/

Here's the most important part:

"While a poll of 100 people will be more accurate than a poll of 10, studies have shown that accuracy begins to improve less at about 500 people and increases only a minor amount beyond 1,000 people."

People like to believe that but it doesn't address biases in the people taking the polls, the questions or other factors that aren't always controlled well.
Quote:

That's how polling is done. So when the article says that a significant number of people will jump ship from AT&T for Verizon and Android may be hurt, they're using actual scientifically proven data collection techniques.

The poll is not proven until after the device is realized in the market. At best polls are informed speculation.
Quote:
Acting like their numbers are off when they're actually following a proven method makes you look bad, not them.

No it is always wise to question polls passed off as the truth or extremely accurate. For one thing polls are oftened tailored to the needs of the group contracting for the poll. Frankly you would be considered gullible if you accepted these results without more detailed info.




Dave
post #26 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

People like to believe that but it doesn't address biases in the people taking the polls, the questions or other factors that aren't always controlled well.

The poll is not proven until after the device is realized in the market. At best polls are informed speculation.

No it is always wise to question polls passed off as the truth or extremely accurate. For one thing polls are oftened tailored to the needs of the group contracting for the poll. Frankly you would be considered gullible if you accepted these results without more detailed info.




Dave

HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

Oh that's awesome. Tell us again about how scientific polls are wrong because you don't like the outcome!

HAHAHAHAHA!!!
post #27 of 131
I was seriously considering looking at Verizon but not right away. I would have waited for the news reports on those who did convert.

Now, I won't even consider it given Verizon's support of the dismantling of Net Neutrality and sad shape it would leave the wireless infrastructure in.
post #28 of 131
Enough with this already. Hey Verizon! If you're listning, poop or get off the pot.
post #29 of 131
I'd consider switching to Verizon if they carried the iPhone.

I have a few questions for the Verizon customers here. When you send a text message, do you get a 15 second delay before the text actually goes through? Also, when you send texts, is it typical for them to arrive 2-5 minutes after you send them?
post #30 of 131
As an AT&T employee i personally cant wait to see iphone on Verizon so we can off load most of these whiners and get the network back. most customers that are upset iv spoken to would have normally cancelled in a heart beat but cannot live without the iphone. Verizon doesn't have this problem, if a customer gets upset with Verizon they can get a junky android phone for any network and if they wait 3 months there will be a new version of the one they just brought if they don't like the phone
post #31 of 131
Nice report by Morpace. They certainly covered many areas that other analysts seem to constantly overlook.

As for the poll, these will be always subject to error, even if you polled everyone as the grouping and questions can easily be done to skew results, but the sample size is more than adequate to yield a viable result bases on the first two criteria.
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post #32 of 131
Apple has until January to get the iPhone on T-mobile before I just give up and get an Android phone with them. I really don't want to switch to AT&T and I'm still waiting to get my first smart phone.
post #33 of 131
Are you sure the phone will not go to Sprint? They need customers and would probably pay the Apple price to have the IPhone.
post #34 of 131
This isn't my area of expertise. I assume any new Verizon iPhone service has to be new as the ability to both surf and call at the same time is essential and their 'old' network can't do that can it? Has Verizon truly got such a true 4G network nation wide yet?
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post #35 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by iMinnesotan View Post

Apple has until January to get the iPhone on T-mobile before I just give up and get an Android phone with them. I really don't want to switch to AT&T and I'm still waiting to get my first smart phone.

We can deduce that T-Mobile USA definitely won't be happening.

How do we know?
T-Mobile USA and AT&T both use UMTS (3GSM) so all it would need is the correct UMTS Operating Band chip to work on T-Mo's 3G network. The FCC has unceremoniously revealed that the iPhone 4 has 5 UMTS (3GSM) bands. None of them is the 1700MHz spectrum needed for T-Mo. What they did add is the 3G band used most prominently by Japan's NTT DoCoMo.

Why NTT over T-Mo?
For starters they are Japan's largest carrier and T-Mo is the US' smallest. Secondly, they have a lot more subscribers than T-Mo in the US. Finally, if Apple is prepping a CDMA iPhone, which I think they are based on the rumorsnof component purchases in China, then going with the Verizon or Sprint over T-Mo would make even more sense.

In any case I think you are out of luck.
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post #36 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

This is really funny. Verizon in Q1 2010 had 92.8 million customers and this poll was a sample of 1000. And this is suppose to mean something?

Yes, it is statistics and it can work if they did the poll right.

A random poll with responses from 500-1000 people will model the entire population of the US within a couple of percent error.

see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_poll
post #37 of 131
I'm happy with AT&T and have no intention of switching - and no surprise that this article validates that the overwhelming majority are happy with AT&T. The vocal techies tend to be the most who agitate - if the average person can get functionality, they are typically happy. They aren't interested in enabling the service menu and arguing who has less db of loss....

I also remember before Verizon had any real competition how big of jerks they were. I'm not surprised that they were colluding with google to limit choice - what a shocker Have fun with your locked down and un-even Internet on Verizon wireless.

The other point that is now obvious is if/when Verizon gets the iPhone, Android is going to be seriously stunted.
post #38 of 131
Apple's sales in 2Q 2010 represented 22% of US smart phone market share while Android's was 34%. This is all due to Apple's decision to go with an exclusive carrier agreement. Android would have never taken hold had the iPhone been available on multiple carriers. Once the iPhone is available elsewhere, I'm afraid it will be too late to convert Android owners.

Apple is comfortable with 15-20% market share earning record profit per customer and this is where they will likely be in another year.
post #39 of 131
If 1/3 of the ATT customers all bailed and went to Verizon, then ATT service would rock; and I'd still be the one with a "world phone".
post #40 of 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

This isn't my area of expertise. I assume any new Verizon iPhone service has to be new as the ability to both surf and call at the same time is essential and their 'old' network can't do that can it? Has Verizon truly got such a true 4G network nation wide yet?

Simultaneous talk/data is, to me, the most crucial of multi-tasks. I use both a lot and would be reluctant to switch carriers if they don't offer it. Oh, and price, of course.
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