Originally Posted by aplnub
What is the chance that existing AppleTV owners get the software update?
Originally Posted by Marvin
I'd say not likely. The existing ATV is an x86 device whereas iOS is designed for ARM chips. None of the apps would run without translation.
This is simply not true! Virtually all iOS apps run [in various stages of their development] on x86 iMacs using the iPhone Simulator. You can develop iOS apps this way without spending a dime. To actually run your iOS apps on a device, you must register as a $99 per year developer.
Obviously, there are certain iDevice hardware features you cannot test (GPS, etc.), but each version of the simulator is more robust,
I think most ATV users will ditch their box when they see how small the new one is anyway. The old one will be a tough resell when the new one is so cheap - in fact, if anyone here has one, I'd say sell it right now. You can put OS X onto it of course and use it as a cheap server/Mac.
If you think about the components needed to do this, they can fit inside a plug. Imagine a plug like the iPhone charger with an HDMI port coming out. It can be wifi or have an ethernet port.
I can see using existing AppleTV for the basic function it currently provides, while a new AppleTV offers Video Overlay, more compelling games, etc. IOW, start enjoying the benefits and buy the new AppleTV for the family room and move the old one to the bedroom.
The subsidy model they can use is interesting because if you think about normal TV, you get ads that can be skipped through. For each programme on this, they can show you an iAd or a standard ad that you can't bypass, which means they don't need to use so many ads.
Also, the iAds, presumably, will be well done, interesting and targeted-- ads that you might be interested in watching...
In fact, I can see the day that you tell your AppleTV: "Here's the things I am interested in (that I am looking to buy), please show me ads in this category-- let AppleTV be your private shopper (or at least ad filter).
That's going to be a huge selling point. Porn companies don't really have a way to get explicit porn direct to your TV. Not only will they have one now but they'll all have to adopt HTML 5 video.
TV channels will be websites or Youtube channels. In many ways not having content control or standards can be a bad thing but after a few years of cable TV, you start to see how bad their content is anyway.
TV needs a shake-up and this is the best way to do it. The pricing model concerns me a bit but if they do pay-per-minute up to a cap then it should be ok. Pay-per-movie will relegate it to the status of an electronic Blockbuster and people will only use it to add to their cable viewing and use it infrequently.
Porn, like water, seeks its own level!
Your other points are well tken!