Originally Posted by RYVAL
So yes, I agree that apples market share will eventually drop in the tablet market. But formsimplicitys sake, it won't drop as low as 20%.
correct. if we define the tablet market as excluding "slates" running any desktop OS, i'd expect Apple to hold about 50% of the market for the next several years once all the competition finally has mature products to offer - which is as far as anyone can see these days with tech evolving so fast.
the big difference here is that the telcos are not as important. wifi only is good enough for many. for the rest, a la cart data only plans could become widely available. we will see if Apple "unlocks" the iPad, but right now the AT&T plan is a good deal for most. and you can add VOIP since the iPad DOES have a microphone (why else is it there?).
the competing OEM's will hook up with telcos to try the same "subsidized" low up-front price with two year contract business model as smartphones. but this will hit some real market resistance. people are unhappy with always-increasing monthly bills for their phone and cable services, and all the extra fees that keep getting tacked on. so $100 up front + $40 per month ain't such a great deal for many. and the Android fragmentation issue will quickly impact these products too. do my smartphone apps work on my tablet? um, often not. plus the telco crapware and service lock-ins.
when Apple releases iPad 2 early next year, it will likely keep iPad 1 on the market for $100 less than now. just like it does with last year's iPhone models. there is also the rumored 7" iPad which also would have an even lower price point. so Apple will be reasonably competitive on price overall.
and this all assumes the competition's products are as good as iPad 2 running iOS 5 next year, which is when they will finally all be ready for sale. and what are the odds of that?
The reason mr. Acer and mr. LG are talking big these days is actually because their money people are worried that, like the iPod, the tablet train has already left the station with Apple in the driver's seat - and they ain't on it.