Originally Posted by bodypainter
ok, here is my tought and I'm curious how exact my "nostradamus" prediction was when we hear what apple is going to show on 1st of september:
- first: apple is going to scrap the ipod classic! it doesn't make any sense anymore, apple can not sell apps with it and if they double the touch's ram to 128 GB the ipod touch is a good (but expensive) replacement.
Rubbish. iPod classic is a niche product that always sells well to the top end. There are people who still want more than 120 GB, and I have my doubts whether if we have reached the point where 120 GB is affordable in flash.
- many people will be sad about this, but the ipod classic will re-appear as a limited "10 years ipod" edition in october 2012. to remove the classic from the product line makes this "limited edition" classic even more interesting in 2 years. a clever move!
- from now on, the ipod touch is going to be the main ipod. it will get a fresh new design and will have 16, 64 and 128 GB of ram and will cost 199 / 299 and 399 US$. it will get a camera and a higher resolution retina display and a gyroscope sensor.
.... and toilets, etc. No, big boy. The amazing retina display, etc. will only exist in the 299+ range, while it is possible for the iPod touch 3 cost 199. But you still need a nano, unless you can downgrade touch to the 140 dollars range.
- the target market will be music, games and the video filmers that used the nano to film. to different the ipod touch from the iphone it will NOT have a frontfacing camera and therefore NO facetime. it will also have a weaker camera compared to the iphone (3mp) but be a bit thinner.
We'll see, this is the biggest unknown, but I agree it has to differentiate somewhat from the 600+ dollars iPhone.
- big changes to the nano: it is going to loose the camera and the clickwheel but will come in a very fresh and small square-formfactor. the device will be controlled via a squared multitouch display and a new user interface that will be based on cd covers but also lists like on the old nano. it will be shipped with the remote control headphones like the shuffle with volume and middle click button to skip, forward and start/stop the music. you will also be able to use the nano without looking at the display in a way like the ipod shuffle with voice output.
I seriously doubt they will try again the squared form factor. It was their ugliest version to date.
- a 4 GB nano will be sold at 99 US$, the 8 GB at 139 and the 16 GB one at 179 us$. to save money, apple might remove the dock connector and the dock. instead the nano will be powered with a tiny cable that is plugged into the audio-connector. there will also be a little clip on the backside to clip the nano onto a shirt. the nano will come in black and white as well as red, pink, blue, yellow and green.
Do you have any insight whatsoever? Why pretend you are right on the money with the effin colors, for chrissakes? Of course they will have lots of colors.
- as the nano is so small now and agressively priced, they might scrap the ipod shuffle completely. remember: the nano can now be used like a shuffle and when the nano is in your pocket, it will behave similar like a shuffle, it will have the same remote control and the same voice output.
Nice idea, we'll see. Another idea is to minimize even further the shuffle and make it 50$ again.
to clear up the product line has many advantages for apple. the removal of the ipod classic means the end of harddisks and its moving parts in the ipods. it also forces the people to buy an ipod touch which will broaden the customer base for the app store and apps mean money. the faster chip and the higher resolution will seduce old touch users to upgrade to the new touch and developers can focus on one resolution rather than two (actually 3 if you also count the ipad). apple is also playing the "want more...?" game with 16 GB ram for the entry touch but 64 for "only" 100 us$ more or another 100 us$ if you want to have the same space like in the old classic ipod.
even removing the shuffle has some advantages for apple: 99 us$ is a very seductive price for "ipod beginners", but still more than the 59 us$ they charged for the old shuffle. they will get 40 us$ more per beginner that would have bought a shuffle and is now forced to buy the tiny nano.
You'll lose the high end of the market and the low end. It's a possibility, but why do it when you are winning the game? It's the kind of culling you do when you are trying to get inside the game.