Android gaining on Apple iOS in mobile web market share - Page 8

At least credit Fred Brooks if you are going to make his argument for him. But today even he says the numeric assumptions of team communications are wrong today in a properly run dev team that writes well incapsulated code and good interfaces. Technology and techniques have made those old equations way overstated... for the well run projects. The poorly run ones are still affected as you noted.

Essentially you end up limiting many parts of your project to the Two Pizza Rule, but not the size of the entire project. It's not hard, but the lead has to know what they are doing and be a bit of a hardcase early on to keep the interface and encapsulation ground rules in place. It's only good dev practice in the first place, but it is amazing how much of that has been ignored over the years because of ego and not-invented-here syndrome.

The facts are simple. Android is going to lead the market share with phones, tablets, and whatever other venture they want to get into. They are going to do it with lower hardware costs, buy one get one free deals from carriers and a non-carrier exclusive mantra. They aren't going to make iOS obsolete or anything of that nature. They both will co-exist just fine. In the end you, vote with your wallet. I chose iOS.

Because Apple isn't going to make a WP7 phone and the iPhone demand isn't likely to drop even if some users switch? The issue isn't just consumer preference but the options on the table for consumers. WM6 is simply not competitive in the phone market so device makers aren't pushing new designs until WP7.

If folks are looking for non-iphone alternative and the only options are three android phones it's obvious android wins. If on the other hand there are 2 android phones and a Wp7 phone. IMHO WP7 is far more likely to take momentum from Android than iPhone.


You mean like a decent app store? I'm not sure why you think iTunes on the PC sucks any more or any less than iTunes on a Mac.

Dream on Fangirl.

+1 Agree wholeheartedly

For me, it's a huge deal. I will never buy another cell phone that doesn't play nice with my Mac. And I want that functionality out of the box, not interested in 3rd party connectivity solutions for something as baseline as syncing contacts and such.

Maybe you're the fangirl Bettie..

I happen to agree that the largest draw for Android is that iPhone is only available on ATT. Granted there are other attractions to Android, such as Apple hateGirls, flashtards, and I'm sure some other constituents like the free software fanatics, but the dynamic for Android is hugely different without the iPhone exclusivity, imo.

Speaking only for myself, and as a long time Apple fan, no, I don't think Android is doomed, because I don't think the smartphone market has reached maturity yet. There's still room for game-changing (both in hardware and software). Apple has to keep up the pace of innovation and find the next big thing. Having RFID and an infrastructure for making retail purchases with your phone could be that kind of thing. I'd love to just wave my iPhone in front of a vending machine instead of fishing for exact change.

I also don't believe that the race has come down to two players. Nokia, RIM, and yes even Microsoft are still contenders (I know, I expected to be flamed on that one). Palm would be a contender, but I fully expect HP to screw it up and doom WebOS to niche status. Android isn't unstoppable, but it's not going to disappear. I think the wild card yet to be played in this game is Windows Phone 7. Yes, I've gleefully derided it, but I do think Microsoft has clout and its partners will ship Windows phones in 2011, and if it cannibalizes marketshare, it will be mainly from Android, not iOS. That's my prediction.

On your other questions:
2. Do I think Android phones are crap? Some of them, yes. It's not Android (or a lack of upgrading) that makes them crap, it's the design, components chosen, and manufacturing that makes them crap. Of all the Android phones, the Droid Incredible by Motorola is the nicest of the bunch, IMO, but I still think the iPhone 4 has better components (screen, sensors, and camera).

3. Do I think developers will stop writing Android apps because of OS versioning? I don't think that is the only issue that Android developers face. There's also no real single hardware platform, so you have to make an extra effort to tune and test your games on a variety of handsets with different CPUs, GPUs, screen resolutions, etc. No one is forcing all handset manufacturers to, say, add a front-facing camera with a particular resolution or gyros, so software programmers can't rely on any new hardware being present across the Android "platform". I don't think these challenges will stop programmers from writing Android apps.

Oh, like how I concluded that time spent browsing on the insignificant number of iPads is not insignificant because the iPad is the *perfect* browsing device and I use it to do most of my browsing? I think that was the "premise" that you called me on...

Rather, I started with the PREMISE that, of all the mobile browsing that may be done, a disproportionate amount may be done by a device that accounts for a small percentage of the browsing capable mobile devices out there. Indeed, studies have shown that very thing over the last 3 years -- the iPhone accounted for some 70% of mobile browsing in many studies, of which I am sure you have read and about which you duly graced others with your *conclusions*.

Of course, these studies, just as the one under discussion in this thread, tend to ignore the iPod and more recently, the iPad. I will go out on a limb and say that I believe that the iPad will account for no less (nay more) disproportionate browsing figures. Having used an iPad, and having read about people that do use iPads; that is my theory, and from it I conclude that Apple has made (sorry, designed) something that is jolly good for browsing (among other things).

So, according to your semantics, you *conclude* that Apple fans buy new Apple gear as soon as it is released, because something must account for the successes of Apple and the fact that it sells record numbers of items each quarter? If so, your conclusions are pretty faulty. It's a fact that half the sales in the Apple Stores are to customers new to Apple. It's a fact that schools are buying MacBooks and iPods and iPads for whole classes of kids. It's a fact that companies are equipping salesforces with iPads.

Rather, I propose that you have started with a fact, the fact that Apple is successfully selling hardware, and you want to propose a theory that accounts for it without giving Apple credit where credit is due; so, you employ your prejudices and draw upon your predisposed assumption (call it a premise if you like) that no-one in their right mind except rabid Apple Fans would buy Apple products given any intelligence and half a choice. [your comments are rife with assumptions like this throughout, so it is no stretch for me to conclude this]. Then I put it to you that you CONCLUDE that the two are related in such a way that your so called *conclusion* is the only explanation that could possibly account for the facts. And as I said, your real conclusions are out to lunch, not to mention your assumptions.

Of course, the implication of all this is that we have patiently indulged you far too much already.

It was bound to happen. It's a repeat of the Mac vs. Windows story of 20-25 years ago for exactly the same reasons:

1- Apple's refusal to license the iOS which forced Google to write its own Android operating system;

2- Apple using its early lead and superior OS as a reason to overcharge early adopters with a profit margin of 200% or 250% hidden by a compulsory cell phone contract;

3- Apple sacrificing its long term interest and market share to realize quick, huge profits on the short term, mostly for the benefit of the CEO and his VPs who receive unheard of stock option bonuses.


Android mobile OS is the new Windows of smartphones. Unlike Microsoft, Google doesn't charge anything for its operating system, a definite cost advantage for iPhone competitors. When you add the choice of models and makers, the choice of features and carriers, a better choice of software not restricted by the App Store, quick innovation and a lower price, Android phones are bound to overtake the smartphone market over the long term.

Windows 95 crushed Apple once. What will remain this time, once Steve Jobs leaves Apple to retire or for medical reasons?

Did Steve Jobs build a house of cards with his monopolistic strategy of exclusive cell phone carriers and expensive cell phone contracts?

What remains a bottleneck for Android is: how do Android developers (not Android App developers) make money? Currently, because Google funds that. Fine. How does Google make money from Android? If they can sell other products or services (e.g. Nexus, Google Apps, Ads). Funding Android to make money on Google Apps would be the equivalent of Microsoft making Windows free to make money on Office. Making money with hardware development is something that Google will have to spend ages on to become a competitor (buying them from HTC does not count). Ads and paid search is the open option. Currently, Google makes mobile money via mobile ads on web sites. They do not make mony on third party apps. They will need some sort of iAd program to make money from ads in the app world.

Android itself costs Google money, it does not earn them money. They need Android to protect a share of the mobile web ad market. Will that in the end be enough?

I wonder: which open source / free system has ever been a huge success in the consumer world en produced its own momentum in terms of revenue that pays for ongoing development?

Certainly the Fred Brooks (there were 2 at IBM, when I worked there) should be credited for some these ideas-- as should C. Northcote Parkinson and others.

The "expediting takes a little longer" observation (also known as the "Des Plaines Directive") was made by me as the result of a study I performed on the IBM "Pricing and Forecasting" process. *

The study showed that a project with 1 line of code and 1 sentence of documentation (already completed) would take 13 months to get through the process. To expedite the process, required an additional 2 weeks (at minimum) to get the required approvals.

* I used PERT and POP (Piss On Pert) to define all the steps, sign-offs, and interactions to get through the complex process.


As to "technology and techniques" making these old equations overstated-- yes and no. Certainly, in a well run software project "APIs" and "Code Encapsulation" will help with "communication" issues.

But, in a project involving more than just software, "APIs" and "Code Encapsulation" provide less benefit.

In my experience, there is an "almost magical" way that a good, small team works together -- you just know what the others are doing, with little or no communication necessary: You're on the same wave-length!


Finally, I'll leave you with this:

"When any organizational entity expands beyond 21 members, the real power will be in some smaller body."
--C. Northcote Parkinson

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1 line of code...

Are we talking IEFBR14?

This is interesting! I've been "developing" iOS apps since the SDK became available. I do not have any apps in the app store-- rather I use Ad Hoc distro for remote users and local install through XCode for friends and neighbors.

I am in the final stages of testing my first app for submission to the app store as a free app.

One of the objectives is that I want the app to run on all iDevices and to include iAd where applicable.

That means that I have to test on:

-- original iPhone - iOS 3.1.3
-- iPhone 3G - iOS 4.1
-- iPhone 3GS - iOS 4.1
-- iPhone 4 - iOS 4.1
-- iPad - iOS 3.2

The iP4 and the iP 3GS are activated and have a MicroSIM and a SIM, respectively.

Fortunately, this first app scales well and does not require a version tailored to the iPad's larger screen real estate.

But, other apps need to be redesigned to work well on (exploit) the major screen-size difference.

Then, there is the fact of life of different SDK/iOS versions -- there are usually 3 SDKs/target iOSes available:
-- the current released version targeting earlier iOS devices, e.g. iOS 2.x, 3.x.
-- the current released version, e.g. iOS 4.0
-- the next beta version, e.g. iOS 4.1


Until November, there is the iPad only version-- iOS 3.2

Soon, I expect we will see an iOS 4.2 beta.

I have lots of older iPods but no iPod Touches. I stopped buying iPods when the iPhone was announced. 3 original iPhones are SIM-less and used as iPod Touches by the grandkids-- I can commandeer one of these for testing apps.

But, to test apps for the app store, it appears that I should by at least the current iPod Touch (and maybe an earlier version, too).

So, if I want to submit an app to the app store. it looks like I need over $1,000 of hardware and at least 1 carrier contract.

And, testing the app against each device/OS combination is rather involved


How does a small Android developer address this?

-- Must he purchase every device he intends to target?
-- Does he purchase a different device for each OS version available for that device?
-- Can he easily upgrade/downgrade the OS on a device for testing
-- Does each device require a carrier contract and activation?
-- AFAIK, Verizon phones are SIM-less, does this cause problems?
-- Don't some (most?) Android phone mfgrs add their own skin on top of Android?
-- Does this create any difficulties/complications for developing and testing?

Seriously, the fragmentation within Apple's iOS and iDevice versions requires quite an effort and expense to develop and test an app. That's just one manufacturer, an evolving set of features, and [mostly] consistent UI and Skin.

It would appear that the small Android developer has these problems in spades!

What does he do-- write for the lowest common denominator, or try to cherry-pick a few popular devices?

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Backup, apps, music, contacts and all the lockups and delays. That is the rigamarole. Especially if you've moved movies and music from the download folder to their permanent home - iTunes can't even figure out what happened.

Hell, you can't even minimize the window when it is doing its thing.

If you add one thing, it sometimes adds it to the iPhone it in a reasonable amount of time. But if you have hundreds of contacts and gigs of music, iTunes blows chunks.

How will anyone "crush" Apple when Apple commands that lion's share of the profits by continually selling on margin and not volume?

How will anyone "crush" Apple when Apple finally decides to open the floodgates and spread to other US Carriers. Android will become a Nokia-like bargain-basement brand. Already well on its way.

Nokia leads by far in unit sales, yet they produce the most shitastic phones known to mankind. Are they "crushing" anyone? Nope. Instead they're suffering continual embarrassment (with highest market share.)

Apple's already established their reputation for providing hands-down the best User Experience in the market. That won't change anytime soon.

Learn the fundamentals of Apple's business strategy in 2010 before spouting off about unit sales, Steve Jobs' health, etc.

The subject was the Mac, and not "Apple products".

HTH.

Me too.

When I got my 3GS is was clearly the best phone on the market. But now there are lots of great alternatives.



I find it bizarre how so many here express product preferences in terms of extreme emotions.

I always assumed that iTunes worked so badly because I was using a PC. Are you saying that it runs poorly on Macs too?

That makes perfect sense. But it is too bad that you are so restricted in your choices.

You ignore or too heavily discount multiple important factors.

Please stop being so patient. It bores me.

Wow. This is original thought. I've not heard such a theory before.

Time will tell.

Err... Last time I looked, Google doesn't make any hardware-- why do they need an OS?

Oh, of course! To sell ads.


Aren't all smart phones priced similarly? As I understand it, there are several that are more expensive than the iPhone.

I bought 2 original 2007 iPhones on day 1. They were worth the price (and are still in use). I received a refund of $100 each, when Apple lowered the price-- welcome, but unexpected.


Market share has never been Apple's long term interest. Profit!

Short term? Apple has been in business for 34 + years. They have revolutionized several industries:
-- personal computing
-- Graphic User Interface
-- Desktop Publishing
-- Audio/Video post processing
-- portable music player
-- digital music store
-- smart phone
-- tablets

I bought my first shares of AAPL in 2003 for $17 a share. Today, each of those shares is worth $517.54 (after split)-- over 3,000% appreciation.

It seems that AAPL has rewarded its shareholders, including, pension funds, etc.

Apple is the 2nd most valuable US company (value of stock). Apple's executive pay, bonuses, stock options are well within the industry norm. Contrast that to, say, GM, GE, Wall Street, Fannie and Freddie-- where the order of the day appears to be: The bigger the loss (scam), the bigger the reward (pay, bonuses, options, golden parachutes).


Just to be sure... You mean that as a compliment, right?

Think about that for a minute.

Apple doesn't charge anything for iOS either. It gives it away to entice/support the customer's willingness to buy a device (where Apple makes their money). Apple is motivated to make that device/OS combination as desirable as possible.

Google, on the other hand, gives away its OS so it can sell ads. Google must make its OS attractive enough (price, features, etc.) to entice the customer to accept the ads to get the device. Realistically, Google could care less which phone you buy, as long as it can push ads to it (it runs Android).

Google doesn't support the hardware-- that's up to the carriers and manufacturers.

As long as it benefits Google, it will continue to enhance Android.

But. what if the cost becomes burdensome? What if the Oracle patents are upheld? Google could be forced to re-implement Android, license Java, pay damages, pay Oracle, say $10 for each Android install.

What then?

I've read that several manufactures, who now make Android phones, are keeping their options open to use other OSes.



Possible... but it remains to be seen! Apple has a track record with hardware, software, CE, a digital store, wholesale and retail sales/support. Google has virtually zero experience with hardware, CE, wholesale and retail sales/support. Their track record with software and a digital store is spotty.


I think you underestimate the management team at Apple.

Maybe a better question would be: What happens to all the Android phone customers and manufacturers when Google decides that Android no longer meets its needs?

That handwriting is already on the wall!

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Jeezus... 8 pages now...

Are you kidding me?

IBM 360 code?

BACF, at least accomplishes something!

Nah... you young whippersnappers know nothin' about real code: I am talkin' writing Octal Absolute-- don't trust those new-fangled Assembly programs.

On the RAMAC, it'd be a slide to clear storage:


On the 650, you pick it... though, it all begins with:


00 No Operation
01 Stop
10 Add Upper Accumulator
11 Subtract Upper Accumulator
14 Divide Without Reset
15 Add Lower Accumulator
16 Subtract Lower Accumulator
17 Add Absolute
18 Subtract Absolute
19 Multiply
20 Store Lower Accumulator
21 Store Upper Accumulator
22 StoreDataAddress
23 Store Instruction Address
24 Store Distributor
30 ShiftRight
31 Shift and Round
35 Shift Left
36 Shift and Count
44 Branch Non-Zero Upper
45 Branch Non-Zero 46 Branch Minus
47 Branch Overflow
60 Reset Add Upper Accumulator
61 Reset Subtract Upper Accumulator
64 Divide - Reset Upper Accumulator
65 Reset Add Lower Accumulator
66 Reset Subtract Lower Accumulator
67 Reset Add Absolute
68 Reset Subtract Absolute
69 Load Distributor
70 Read
71 Punch
84 Table Lookup
90-99 Branch on Distributor 8

http://archive.computerhistory.org/r....102646125.pdf


Gotta' go now, I am writing an iPad app that computes the Indian (native American) problem!
.

I agree the iPhone should be on other carriers; however, if what you say is true then Blackberry should be getting real close to taking over both Android and iOS -- because you can get those FREE. The reason Android is selling well is because of choice. It allows you to choose your carrier, the manufacturer, whether or not you have a keyboard. While Apple forces you to do it their way. Is that a bad thing? Nope, millions of people around the world like it Apple's way. But when you allow your customer to choose -- it's also a good thing.


Apple will never do that. But they can extend to Sprint and Verizon and help themselves.


Very true my friend!

I do believe the same was said when the Apple v. HTC lawsuit came around. Lots of speculation on how it would cause HTC to either do an OTA to kill features or even abandon the platform altogether and deal the death-blow to Android.

Sure, its easier to ask forgiveness than asking for permission. From an organizational psychology perspective, if you are asking for permission you must have doubts about something, and doubts imply risk et. cetera... If you just do it it was assumed by unknowing management the risk was minimal to nonexistent, so nobody else pokes around unless the wheels come off. Sure you expose yourself to some of that risk if you were wrong, but you get full credit for the reward too.



Why? Computing hardware is just software that cannot be changed except physically. So the interfaces become even more sacrosanct. It also tends to be designed with a lot more care than most software is, making it far less likely to go through disruptive changes on a routine basis. You added API's to my description here which is not my case, they don't encapsulate code at all. I hate (most) APIs, too many projects are created with APIs which are not necessary, and they are almost always poorly used. Well executed code (not just data) encapsulation removes most willy-nilly API calls that just serve to move spaghetti up a couple levels. I spent months looking for a good open source project example for M-V-C design and never found one. [I'd appreciate a reference if anyone knows of one] I did find lots of projects with a mostly M library, a mostly V library and a mostly C library, and then see those API calls completely muddled together. Then, unfortunately and depressingly, on deeper look the Ms Vs and Cs all had rampant internal cross dependencies. No real encapsulation at all. That makes for communication nightmares and ugly crunch times.


Parkinson's quote. As it should be. Project Benevolent Dictators or Emperors provide a vital role in keeping a larger project cohesive with a single goal. Software Development as Democracy does not work well.

Apple have a good chance of winning that. The counter suit is laughable. Nokia's suit against Apple will hold water, but will probably that Apple can pay for - as Nokia have not protected that property before, they cant really protect it as rigorously now.

Chances are, it'll never get to a point where one side "wins". The vast majority of these lawsuits end up being settled out of court. I highly doubt it's going to impact how HTC creates their Android devices in the long run. It'll be years before we hear the end of that lawsuit.

by making a better phone and experience. The profit argument gets trotted out whenever the market share issues pops up, generally to change the topic so Apple looks the best. Apple's profits matter in context. If I am a customer looking for a phone, I do not think "Gee, which company makes the most profit from the phone" I look for one that best fills my needs.


Except, apparently Android phones sell well in places where the iPhone is on multiple carriers. Why would the US be different.


What is your definition of crushing? By the market share definition, they are crushing everyone. You may not like the definition, which is why the people here shift to profits, but it is a legitimate definition.


Best is subjective. It may be best for you, and it may be best for me, but not necessarily for everyone. Also, you assume it won't change. That argument sounds a lot like MS dismissing Apple back in the 90's, and we all know how that turned out.

Firstly Android is a platform. The iPhone is a device, the iOS is a platform. Ignoring the iPad for now, we cant ignore the iPod Touch - which sells about as many as the iPhone per average quarter.

Secondly, Here is the UK, last quarter.


This is not the iOS market, but Apple is crushing Android in the UK and has been established in the UK as the dominant player since it went multiple carrier.

And that quarter was the quarter the bottom fell out of the 3GS because of the announcement of the iP4. Only in the last two weeks has stock matched supply in the UK, and the 3GS 8G seems impossible to find.

This quarter will see the iPhone at > 75% of the UK market. In terms of the platform wars iOS is crushing Android here.

When Apple goes multi-platform Android is dead in the US.

I've played with some androids and not even the lastest version.
iPhone on wifi, Android on 3/4G and it's loads a page faster. A page loads before iPhone has half the URL loaded.

That said a lot of programs and they are making quite a few is you get like 30 days and if you like it you have to buy it but their gps is the bomb. But having to pay for secure HTML browsing is not for me. Although I am looking into new Druids. AT&T for 10+ years. To pricey really. Text uses like no bandwitdh some plans offer free unlimited. Of you don't want a smart phone you can get text and calls to any phone (unlimited) for like $40.00 so att needs to get their act together. Especially with thing like plans and texting. Although free teethering is preety sweet. About speeds of 384-709k.

Not sure about my next phone. Contract was up in August.

Yes, yes that is it. Apple Held a gun to the head of Google and Forced it to do a copycat touch phone os. Yes, yes it is ALL The fault of Apple.

Where do you get the 200% profit margin. I have never seen the cost break down of the research that went into the iPhone. Bet you do not have accurate hard numbers either.

As for the third point, mmmmm... I am a very happy stock holder.

If MS indemnifies WP7 against Apple patents then the HTC suit will impact how device makers view Google and Android in relation to alternatives.

"Commoditize your compliments":
http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articl...gyLetterV.html

Yes, we'll have to see how WP7 affects things. But as it stands, it doesn't seem like the suit is having much of an effect on the OEMs.

And when will Apple go multi-carrier? Apple missed its opportunity to stop the Android threat when it first started getting popular. And so far, all we have are rumors from people "close to the source". But that's been going on forever.

Until Android shows up on more than phones, it is a phone. Adding in all iOS devices skews the numbers at this point.


As much as I like UK, like America, it is not the world.

Look, I love my iPhone, MPB and iMac, but the assumption that Android and Blackberry users are

1. Poor
2. Cheap
3. Stupid

or some combination of the 3 is simply wrong. As difficult as it may be for some here to believe or perhaps comprehend, people do knowingly purchase other smart phones even if they could easily purchase an iPhone if they wanted.