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Apple forecast to sell 28M iPads in 2011, chipping away at PC sales

post #1 of 91
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Apple's competitively priced iPad is expected to reduce sales of low-end notebook PCs in 2011, when consumers are projected to buy at least 28 million of the touchscreen tablet, one analyst believes.

Maynard Um with UBS Investment Research issued a note to investors this week, in which he increased his price target for AAPL stock to $350, up from $340. He said there is no evidence that the iPad is having a negative effect on Mac sales, but it is "adversely affecting the PC industry."

"Sales of traditional notebooks appear to be feeling pressure from the iPad, causing a scramble by vendors to launch iPad-like tablets," Um wrote. "We believe that a majority of this impact is occurring on the lower end of PC sales as the iPad is priced close enough to this range that it becomes attractive to consumers looking to make purchases within this segment."

He continued: "We are not sold that the iPad is purely cannibalizing PC sales, as the functionality of the iPad cannot yet deliver the functionality of notebook PCs. However, consumers who purchase iPads may be more willing to delay purchases and upgrades of existing PCs."

Um sees Apple selling 28 million iPads in 2011, a number he cautioned could be "conservative."

Um's note was issued as another report indicated that the popularity of the iPad is helping to drive down the prices of digital random access memory in PCs. Devices like the iPad are less reliant on DRAM than a traditional notebook or desktop PC, and Samsung warned this week that there is currently an oversupply of memory in the market due to weakening PC sales.

Um also reiterated rumors that Apple will launch a new CDMA-compatible iPhone 4 in January of 2011. He has raised his sales forecast for the calendar year to include a CDMA option on potential carriers like Verizon in the U.S., bringing his estimate for 2011 to 52 million units.

"We continue to favor product plays such as Apple as the company should have some of the most highly sought after products in the holiday quarter," Um wrote. "Despite tough economic conditions, consumers remain willing to pay for innovation Despite increasing competition in smartphones and that which is soon to come in tablets, Apple's ability to keep its products fresh and innovative gives us confidence in our estimates going forward."
post #2 of 91
I am happy for steve jobs and apple. They deserve it.
post #3 of 91
Nice to be a shareholder! :-)
post #4 of 91
That number sounds pretty optimistic to me. That's almost as many iPhones as Apple has sold in the last 4 quarters, and the iPhone is a more established product with a lower price. I'd be surprised if they sold 20 of them million in 2011, although I guess it depends on what they change in its first revision.
post #5 of 91
Um..........
post #6 of 91
Whoa.... not a good headline. Anything that starts "Apple forecast..." implies that this is Apple's forecast which the text then claims it's not. And I'm not even a journalism major.
post #7 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zweben View Post

That number sounds pretty optimistic to me. That's almost as many iPhones as Apple has sold in the last 4 quarters, and the iPhone is a more established product with a lower price. I'd be surprised if they sold 20 of them million in 2011, although I guess it depends on what they change in its first revision.

If you look at the two quarters the iPad has sold what are the numbers compared to the iPhone at that same time frame? Which iPhone is most comparable to the current iPhone sales? I can't look it up now but I think the iPad is already as good as the iPhone 3GS. Perhaps better if we account for the iPad rollout. (will look up stats later today if no one beats me to it)


edit: Okay, here are some and dirty figures.

Apple sold 3.47 million Macs during the quarter, representing a new quarterly record and a 33 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 8.4 million iPhones in the quarter, representing 61 percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 9.41 million iPods during the quarter, representing an eight percent unit decline from the year-ago quarter. The Company began selling iPads during the quarter, with total sales of 3.27 million.

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2010/07/20results.html By comparison, the first holiday season for the original iPhone only sold 2.3 million units. They are apparently selling 2 million per month now and still havent completed the roll out? Is that correct? iOS 4.x and the G2 iPad with a FaceTime camera surely wont hurt sales. 2 million x 12 equals 24 million, without accounting for holiday growth or year over year growth of the product. I think 28 million may be low now that Ive looked at these numbers.
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post #8 of 91
"...causing a scramble by vendors to launch iPad-like tablets"

Once again, Apple leads and the rest "scramble" to catch up.
post #9 of 91
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Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

GQB — No, putting the antenna on the outside to improve reception was a brilliant idea. Putting it into the hands of self-righteous idiots was the big mistake.

Love your quote! Here's to intelligent technology users.
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post #10 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zweben View Post

That number sounds pretty optimistic to me. That's almost as many iPhones as Apple has sold in the last 4 quarters, and the iPhone is a more established product with a lower price. I'd be surprised if they sold 20 of them million in 2011, although I guess it depends on what they change in its first revision.

While I agree that 28M is overly optimistic, you can't fairly compare iPads sales to iPhones sales. I think you have to compare iPad sales to iPhone + iPod Touch sales, because the iPad can be either a big iPod Touch or a big iPhone (minus voice calling) depending on which model the buyer chooses.
post #11 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Apple's competitively priced iPad...



don't get me wrong, i love ours, and i'm psyched about the numbers, but this thing is $$$.
post #12 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

If you look at the two quarters the iPad has sold what are the numbers compared to the iPhone at that same time frame? Which iPhone is most comparable to the current iPhone sales? I can't look it up now but I think the iPad is already as good as the iPhone 3GS. Perhaps better if we account for the iPad rollout. (will look up stats later today if no one beats me to it)

I suspect that 3GS sales tanked after Gizmodo.
post #13 of 91
Believe very much that the iPad will take share from the netbooks;

- netbooks are slow laptops
- netbooks are not as "easy" and "creative snappy feeling" as the iPad

I myself use it daily as a great productivity tool...

My favourite iPad apps for business (and many free or very cheap) and my experience with the ipad

Cheers,
Daniel
post #14 of 91
If only the supply chain can keep up with the demand for iPads and iPhone 4s ...
post #15 of 91
More important, than the potential Verizon US sales, is the untapped market in Asia. The iPhone 4.0 has been approved for sale in China. However, the 32 GB version may be priced at close to $1,000 locked with a 2 year contract. The 16 GB is a little over $100 cheaper. Those hi prices have been there since the introduction. More than likely, it is China Unicom that is doing the price gouging.

Apple needs to pressure Unicom by coming with a phone that works with China Mobile SCDMA network... and ask for a tax break from China for pushing standard. Also, it may not have to pay much in royalties to Qualcomm, Nokia, etc... that is over $50/phone.

Meanwhile, flood the HK market with unlocked iPhone 4 as soon as manufacturing catches up.
post #16 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by msuberly View Post

While I agree that 28M is overly optimistic, you can't fairly compare iPads sales to iPhones sales. I think you have to compare iPad sales to iPhone + iPod Touch sales, because the iPad can be either a big iPod Touch or a big iPhone (minus voice calling) depending on which model the buyer chooses.

Isn't an "iPhone (minus voice calling)" just an iPod Touch anyway? Therefore, I think the correct comparison is to to the iPod Touch and not iPhones, too. IOW, you don't get voice calling with an iPad and no one I know bought an iPhone without intending to use it as a telephone.
post #17 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hudson1 View Post

Isn't an "iPhone (minus voice calling)" just an iPod Touch anyway?

the iPhone has a better camera: 5MP w/ flash vs. 1MP w/o flash.
the iPhone also has GPS, and [obviously] cellular capability - pentaband 850, 900, 1900, and 2100 MHz; [what's the 5th band?] UMTS/HSDPA chipset

that's all i know of.
post #18 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hudson1 View Post

Whoa.... not a good headline. Anything that starts "Apple forecast..." implies that this is Apple's forecast which the text then claims it's not. And I'm not even a journalism major.

The headline would normally be understood (and very clearly so) to mean "Apple [is] forecast [by people who are not Apple] to sell 28M..." There's no problem here.
post #19 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by desarc View Post


don't get me wrong, i love ours, and i'm psyched about the numbers, but this thing is $$$.

$500 is expensive? At worst that's $100 more than a good net book though it's hard to compare devices that are not the same form factor. I suspect this is what's behind the 7" iPad rumors -- a $399 entry level price point.
post #20 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by msuberly View Post

I suspect that 3GS sales tanked after Gizmodo.

Gizmodo is irrelevant.

The iPhone 3GS crushed sales numbers. Just go look at Apple SEC filings. You don't need to "suspect" anything. Apple sold tons of phones and whatever Gizmodo did or didn't do was totally inconsequential. There was no tanking of iPhone 3GS sales.
post #21 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac'em X View Post

The headline would normally be understood (and very clearly so) to mean "Apple [is] forecast [by people who are not Apple] to sell 28M..." There's no problem here.

I think most would say the headline should start with something like "Analyst predicts iPad sales of..." However clear the original headline is, this one is far more clear.
post #22 of 91
AIR. when, the iPad was announced, the consensus of the pundits and forecasters was for 2010:

-- 10.5 million total tablet sales (all brands)
-- .5 million iPads
-- 10 million all other brands

Then there was all this crap that the iPad:

-- didn't have a "proper OS"
-- didn't come with a plunger
-- couldn't attach to a firehose.
-- didn't run Flash
-- didn't "fit in" to the needs of the consumer or industry, alike
-- lacked a "killer app" or a compelling reason to buy or use

They were all completely wrong!


For the 4th time in its history, Apple has introduced a young, innocent child into the world!

It is for others to undertake to train him, mold him, see his potential, exploit his genius.

The child will ingest it all to learn and grow beyond expectations-- he will reciprocate by changing the world!


The 28M iPad forecast for 2011 is too low!

.
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post #23 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hudson1 View Post

Isn't an "iPhone (minus voice calling)" just an iPod Touch anyway? Therefore, I think the correct comparison is to to the iPod Touch and not iPhones, too. IOW, you don't get voice calling with an iPad and no one I know bought an iPhone without intending to use it as a telephone.

Quote:
Originally Posted by desarc View Post

the iPhone has a better camera: 5MP w/ flash vs. 1MP w/o flash.
the iPhone also has GPS, and [obviously] cellular capability - pentaband 850, 900, 1900, and 2100 MHz; [what's the 5th band?] UMTS/HSDPA chipset

that's all i know of.

From an included technology standpoint (an entirely superficial comparison), an iPad WiFi is very much like an iPod Touch, an iPad WiFi+3G (+GPS) is something of a hybrid between an iPod Touch and iPhone: more or less an iPhone without voice calls, but with mobile data. (Both being minus camera.)
post #24 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

...edit: Okay, here are some and dirty figures.

Apple sold 3.47 million Macs during the quarter, representing a new quarterly record and a 33 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 8.4 million iPhones in the quarter, representing 61 percent unit growth over the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 9.41 million iPods during the quarter, representing an eight percent unit decline from the year-ago quarter. The Company began selling iPads during the quarter, with total sales of 3.27 million.

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2010/07/20results.html By comparison, the first holiday season for the original iPhone only sold 2.3 million units. They are apparently selling 2 million per month now and still havent completed the roll out? Is that correct? iOS 4.x and the G2 iPad with a FaceTime camera surely wont hurt sales. 2 million x 12 equals 24 million, without accounting for holiday growth or year over year growth of the product. I think 28 million may be low now that Ive looked at these numbers.

Bingo. iPhone 4 and iPad is still in high demand in already-launched countries, which is still just a sliver of where Macs are sold.

On the conservative estimate, we're looking at Apple ramping and delivering 3 million iPhones and 2 million iPads a month *worldwide*. That's 36 million iPhones and 24 million iPads a year. In 2011, theres a potential for 3 million iPads a month, and 4 million iPhone4s and 5s per month. Those figures would lead to absolutely blowout numbers of 48 million iPhones and 36 million iPads. Apple can't believe where they're at, to be honest. The fact that so many countries are waiting for launches this far into the year... Either Apple is making them really slow or demand is really off the charts.
post #25 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zweben View Post

That number sounds pretty optimistic to me. That's almost as many iPhones as Apple has sold in the last 4 quarters, and the iPhone is a more established product with a lower price. I'd be surprised if they sold 20 of them million in 2011, although I guess it depends on what they change in its first revision.

Quote:
Originally Posted by msuberly View Post

While I agree that 28M is overly optimistic, you can't fairly compare iPads sales to iPhones sales. I think you have to compare iPad sales to iPhone + iPod Touch sales, because the iPad can be either a big iPod Touch or a big iPhone (minus voice calling) depending on which model the buyer chooses.

I'd say it is hard to estimate at this stage. iPad sales could actually be as good as iPhone sales. It really is a dark horse... Let's look at it this way. Assuming similar manufacturing capacity, if Apple were selling much less iPads than iPhone4, the the rollout of iPad in many more countries would have happened by now. Yet, iPad and iPhone4 are still only officially available in about say 10 countries. iPad launches in other countries are nowhere to be heard of so far. It is thus not out of the realm of possibility that Apple could be looking to produce and sell as many iPads as iPhone4.
post #26 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hudson1 View Post

Whoa.... not a good headline. Anything that starts "Apple forecast..." implies that this is Apple's forecast which the text then claims it's not. And I'm not even a journalism major.

True dat homes!
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post #27 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

Either Apple is making them really slow or demand is really off the charts.

You cant rush magic.
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post #28 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by daniel_iversen View Post

Believe very much that the iPad will take share from the netbooks;l

I agree, sort of. I think that those that were going to buy a netbook might still do it.

It's the folks that thought it out and didn't see the point in a netbook and the whole lower power, limited utility, that are being lured to 'the dark side'. They see the ipad as a giant ipod touch and as an 'touch' they expect it to be limited so that disappointment factor is there. They expect to need a second computer cause you need that for all such 'toys' so they get/have a 'real computer' and the ipad is a compliment to it. Rather than trying to be THE computer like netbooks often do.

And then we have the businesses that have been thinking they might maybe want to go digital but didn't want to deal with a a whole fleet of notebooks or netbooks. The ipad offers a potential solution with built in limits that can be very attractive to corporate IT types

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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post #29 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

You cant rush magic.

A shortage of virgins is affecting the supply of unicorn tears, limiting the number that can be washed each day.
post #30 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by msuberly View Post

While I agree that 28M is overly optimistic, you can't fairly compare iPads sales to iPhones sales. I think you have to compare iPad sales to iPhone + iPod Touch sales, because the iPad can be either a big iPod Touch or a big iPhone (minus voice calling) depending on which model the buyer chooses.

According to the analyst, the estimate is conservative. Difficult to see why you think otherwise, since we know from long experience that analysts are typically conservative in their estimates.

As for comparing the iPad to other Apple products, I don't see the point. The iPod didn't need to be compared to anything else, and neither did the iPhone. Apple has managed to carve out another new product market. It deserves to be judged entirely on its own merits.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #31 of 91
The BS at this site is so effing thick.

First off DRAM prices going down is NOTHING new. This cycle goes up and down all the time, and if you watch it you can get good pricing. Next earthquake in Japan or where ever will make prices jack up real quick, much like gas prices going up overnight when there is an oil spill. It has been doing this cycle for 10+ years, long before the iPad was even dreamed of by Jobs.

There is NO way I can believe that the iPad will impact overall PC sales. Yes there will some people that want both, a new PC and a iPad and because of lack of funds decide to get the iPad now, and then next year or whatever get a new PC. Are you going to report a year later that PC sales will go up because everyone that has an iPad now needs to upgrade their PC because they NEED both since the iPad cant replace a PC for most people? Somehow I doubt that would make a good link bait headline here iOSinsider.com

If anything I think the iPad will impact Mac sales. In fact instead of quoting some anal-ist, I will link you to some DATA that shows OS X trending down, iOS trending up.

http://www.netmarketshare.com/os-mar...e.aspx?qprid=9
post #32 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

I agree, sort of. I think that those that were going to buy a netbook might still do it.

It's the folks that thought it out and didn't see the point in a netbook and the whole lower power, limited utility, that are being lured to 'the dark side'. They see the ipad as a giant ipod touch and as an 'touch' they expect it to be limited so that disappointment factor is there. They expect to need a second computer cause you need that for all such 'toys' so they get/have a 'real computer' and the ipad is a compliment to it. Rather than trying to be THE computer like netbooks often do.

And then we have the businesses that have been thinking they might maybe want to go digital but didn't want to deal with a a whole fleet of notebooks or netbooks. The ipad offers a potential solution with built in limits that can be very attractive to corporate IT types

Good observations! Here's another, that I read recently:

Many iPad sales are made by people who already have a net book or especially a laptop or desktop --
that was due for upgrade/replacement. Instead, they purchase an iPad to augment the existing machine!

For example instead of replacing an older iMac or MacBook, you keep it and just buy an iPad.

.
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post #33 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by bettieblue View Post

If anything I think the iPad will impact Mac sales. In fact instead of quoting some anal-ist, I will link you to some DATA that shows OS X trending down, iOS trending up.

And your point is? The first problem with your statistics is that they are for internet usage, not for product sales. The second, even if we overlook the first, is that net usage for Windows is also down during the same period -- a great deal more than for OSX. Finally, we know from previous experience with the iPod and iPhone, that these products bring bodies into Apple stores and introduce people to Apple's entire product line, which has had a measurably beneficial impact on Mac sales (the so-called halo effect). As a result we see that Mac sales have grown at a much faster rate than the rest of the PC market as a whole for many years running, and that Apple has captured an enviable share of profits from PC sales.

Other than that, the news on Mac sales is terrible.
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post #34 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by MuncyWeb View Post

Love your quote! Here's to intelligent technology users.

I love the quote too, but putting my username in front of it makes it look like I don't agree.
Perhaps Solopsism should edit it out of his otherwise on-the-money signature.
post #35 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by daniel_iversen View Post

Believe very much that the iPad will take share from the netbooks;

- netbooks are slow laptops
- netbooks are not as "easy" and "creative snappy feeling" as the iPad

I myself use it daily as a great productivity tool...

My favourite iPad apps for business (and many free or very cheap) and my experience with the ipad

Cheers,
Daniel

Yup.
The problem is that netbooks attempt to provide functionality that most users don't need, and do it badly to boot.
More useless features done badly.
Great formula for success.
iPad provides 99% of the regularly needed features, and does it beautifully.
post #36 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by SinisterJoe View Post

$500 is expensive? At worst that's $100 more than a good net book though it's hard to compare devices that are not the same form factor. I suspect this is what's behind the 7" iPad rumors -- a $399 entry level price point.

'good netbook'.
Isn't that an oxymoron?
post #37 of 91
What's really gonna kill the P.C. Is not really the iPad per say. It will be all the other Pad or Slates or Netbook makers, that will find it necesarry to put everything but the kitchen sink in their versions.
They are not as smart as old Stevie. He understood that you could
not put everything in the iPad, so not to hurt his Mac's.
All the other 'bozo's are just reacting. "Oh we have to include
Flash, because Apple was'nt smart enough." "We are gonna make
our's print right out of the box." "We have to include a camera, so
everyone can Chat or Skype."
Idiots. Why would anybody buy your $800.00 computer? You are
letting people do everything anyways for $500.00 or less.
post #38 of 91
Apple just upped manufacturing of iPads to 2 million/month. They reportedly want to increase this to 3 million/month starting in October for the holiday season. At that rate they have the potential to sell 36 million in 2011 alone...on top of the 10-12 million they will have sold in 2010. Not bad.

www.ipadstore.com
post #39 of 91
Quote:
Originally Posted by babyfacemagee View Post

Apple just upped manufacturing of iPads to 2 million/month. They reportedly want to increase this to 3 million/month starting in October for the holiday season. At that rate they have the potential to sell 36 million in 2011 alone...on top of the 10-12 million they will have sold in 2010. Not bad.

That also doesn't take into account what might happen when the rev 2 iPad is released next year.
post #40 of 91
That chart has nothing to do with sales its internet usage. Its been shown that iPod, iPhone, iPad are gateway products that help Mac sales. 50% of Mac sales every quarter are to people who never previously owned a Mac.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bettieblue View Post

If anything I think the iPad will impact Mac sales. In fact instead of quoting some anal-ist, I will link you to some DATA that shows OS X trending down, iOS trending up.
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