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Apple projected to ship 130M iOS devices in 2014 as Android hits 259M

post #1 of 248
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Apple is projected to sell 130 million iOS-based mobile devices per year by 2014, but both Google Android and Nokia Symbian are expected to each double that amount, according to Gartner.

The research firm said on Friday it believes that both Symbian and Android will account for 59.8 percent of all mobile OS sales by the year 2014. It sees Apple's iOS, which powers the iPhone, iPad and iPod touch, coming in third place with a market share of 14.9 percent.

Even with annual sales half that of its competitors, Apple would still be selling 130 million units per year in Gartner's projections. To put that in perspective, Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs revealed last week that his company has sold 120 million iOS devices in total since the iPhone launched in 2007.

Gartner sees the market share of iOS growing in 2011 to 17.1 percent, up from an anticipated 15.4 percent in 2010. The firm expects Apple to sell a total of 70.7 million iOS devices next year.

Last month, Gartner claimed that shipments of smartphones running Android had passed the iPhone, thanks to its availability on numerous carriers and devices.

This year, Gartner has projected sales of 47.5 million Android devices, good for a 17.7 percent market share, slightly edging out Apple. By 2014, that number is seen rising to 259 million, or a 29.6 percent share -- within spitting distance of Nokia's anticipated 30.2 percent market share.

"The worldwide mobile OS market is dominated by four players: Symbian, Android, Research In Motion and iOS," said Roberta Cozza, principal research analyst at Gartner. "Launches of updated operating systems such as Apple iOS 4, BlackBerry OS 6, Symbian 3 and Symbian 4, and Windows Phone 7 will help maintain strong growth in smartphones in 2H10 and 2011 and spur innovation. However, we believe that market share in the OS space will consolidate around a few key OS providers that have the most support from CSPs and developers and strong brand awareness with consumer and enterprise customers."



The company said that budget devices based on Android from handset makers including Samsung, Sony Ericsson, LG and Motorola will launch in the second half of 2010 and help to drive growth even further.

The firm sees open source platforms dominating more than 60 percent of the smartphone market by 2014, while "single-source platforms" like iOS and Research in Motion's BlackBerry OS will increase in sales, but at a rate below the market average. Gartner also sees Microsoft's Windows Phone relegated to sixth place, behind the MeeGo platform created by Intel and Nokia.
post #2 of 248
Four years is an eternity in the tech industry. Four years ago the iPhone didn't even exist, that's what this projection is worth. And change is accelerating.
post #3 of 248
I seriously doubt Nokia will pull one out the hat!

Symbian == Doomed ==Dead Horse

The quicker Nokia learn that the better.

Get some Unix in ya diet stupid.
post #4 of 248
Maybe Apple should start releasing more than one iPhone model a year and go the Samsung route with Galaxy S. Different iPhone flavors. Doubt it'll happen but just a thought.
post #5 of 248
[QUOTE=

The firm sees open source platforms dominating more than 60 percent of the smartphone market by 2014, while "single-source platforms" like iOS and Research in Motion's BlackBerry OS will increase in sales, but at a rate below the market average. Gartner also sees Microsoft's Windows Phone relegated to sixth place, behind the MeeGo platform created by Intel and Nokia.[/QUOTE]

I would be curious to see their predictions concerning open source computer platforms and how they predicted that open source OS would dominate computers by now. The same goes for the play4sure platform that Microsoft had, they said in 5 years the ipod would be left with 10 to 12 percent of the market because of their close platform. They are still at 70!!!
post #6 of 248
Who are they kidding?
Nokia - poor online app store, music store
Android - Hotchpotch of versions, incompatibilities, apps and music

Android and Nokia are a poor copy of an original. They miss the point - apple presents to the consumer a unified product across hardware and software. Nokia and Android do not. For years we suffered with poor symbian software and android versions. Sorry - I'll take lack of flexibility for consistency any time - and that is the reason for apple's ongoing success.

Who cares about projections.

Android will be a collection of fragmented devices and versions. Nokia will still be trying to come to terms with a united online store and quality software - for all their marketing strategies.




Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Apple is projected to sell 130 million iOS-based mobile devices per year by 2014, but both Google Android and Nokia Symbian are expected to each double that amount, according to Gartner.

The research firm said on Friday it believes that both Symbian and Android will account for 59.8 percent of all mobile OS sales by the year 2014. It sees Apple's iOS, which powers the iPhone, iPad and iPod touch, coming in third place with a market share of 14.9 percent.

Even with annual sales half that of its competitors, Apple would still be selling 130 million units per year in Gartner's projections. To put that in perspective, Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs revealed last week that his company has sold 120 million iOS devices in total since the iPhone launched in 2007.

Gartner sees the market share of iOS growing in 2011 to 17.1 percent, up from an anticipated 15.4 percent in 2010. The firm expects Apple to sell a total of 70.7 million iOS devices next year.

Last month, Gartner claimed that shipments of smartphones running Android had passed the iPhone, thanks to its availability on numerous carriers and devices.

This year, Gartner has projected sales of 47.5 million Android devices, good for a 17.7 percent market share, slightly edging out Apple. By 2014, that number is seen rising to 259 million, or a 29.6 percent share -- within spitting distance of Nokia's anticipated 30.2 percent market share.

"The worldwide mobile OS market is dominated by four players: Symbian, Android, Research In Motion and iOS," said Roberta Cozza, principal research analyst at Gartner. "Launches of updated operating systems such as Apple iOS 4, BlackBerry OS 6, Symbian 3 and Symbian 4, and Windows Phone 7 will help maintain strong growth in smartphones in 2H10 and 2011 and spur innovation. However, we believe that market share in the OS space will consolidate around a few key OS providers that have the most support from CSPs and developers and strong brand awareness with consumer and enterprise customers."



The company said that budget devices based on Android from handset makers including Samsung, Sony Ericsson, LG and Motorola will launch in the second half of 2010 and help to drive growth even further.

The firm sees open source platforms dominating more than 60 percent of the smartphone market by 2014, while "single-source platforms" like iOS and Research in Motion's BlackBerry OS will increase in sales, but at a rate below the market average. Gartner also sees Microsoft's Windows Phone relegated to sixth place, behind the MeeGo platform created by Intel and Nokia.
post #7 of 248
Predicting these huge moves is a sloppy art, but these figures are certainly plausible. I think that as a percentage the Apple will be <slightly> in 2014, but still a smaller part compared to commodity (read low margin) smartphone makers. Interestingly, their graph shows Apples percentage of the market barely moving as the market balloons.

Apples goal in not to dominate, as it did freakishly with the iPod, but to maintain its premium position. But that said, the whole experience of the iPod boffo success has brought about new types of thinking at Apple and they may well figure out how to do a lower tier (but still high margin) smartphone device. If they can do that, their marketshare will be higher - perhaps close to 20%??
post #8 of 248
What is with the market share obsession? Apple don't care about market share, they care about brand awareness and profitability.

I find it incredible that a company which produce only one phone a year can have even this much market share - when you count the number of devices out there that run Android compared to the one device that is iPhone, then iOS shouldn't even register as a percentage.

I don't think Apple have too much worry about.
post #9 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wurm5150 View Post

Maybe Apple should start releasing more than one iPhone model a year and go the Samsung route with Galaxy S. Different iPhone flavors. Doubt it'll happen but just a thought.

Why? Don't see why you think more than one new device a year is necessary - there are a couple of models of the one device, it's more than adequate.
post #10 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by cggr View Post


Who cares about projections.

Android will be a collection of fragmented devices and versions. Nokia will still be trying to come to terms...

Well, I for one care a bit more about Gartner's projections than your projections.

Got anything behind your analysis that beats the data Gartner relied upon?
post #11 of 248
MeeGo? Seriously? Please tell me they aren't serious about having it gain any traction at all... Secondly, iOS has FLAT growth rate increases (meaning it doesn't accelerate like it has for the iPod)? Who is this report trying to convince, themselves?
post #12 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by battiato1981 View Post


Apples goal in not to dominate, as it did freakishly with the iPod, but to maintain its premium position


Apple's goal is to make as much profit as possible. Nothing else is a goal, but only a means to the goal of maximum profits.

Apple is not a foundation or a social club or a fraternal organization. They are a business.
post #13 of 248
Android is to Windows, iOS is to Mac OSX.
Cheaper devices vs Premium devices
Quantity vs Quality

etc, etc.
post #14 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by Newtron View Post

Well, I for one care a bit more about Gartner's projections than your projections.

Got anything behind your analysis that beats the data Gartner relied upon?

The reason why this is suspect, is because too many things happen to ruin it. for example, in 2006 Gartner predicted that in 2010 Win Mobile would have a 32% marketshare in smartphones. they have less than 7%. They made other stunningly wrong predictions.

I would imagine that if they had predicted it the other way, you would be decrying it.
post #15 of 248
I believe the numbers, every company who makes phones out there will ship phones that have andriod on them, and Nokia will continue to ship looks of phones into EMEA and India and that nothing to sneeze at.

However, who will make more money, apple or the rest of them, plus who will generate more revenue for the companies who support those plate forms, most likely apple.

All these companies who are putting Android on their hardware is hoping that Google pulls a rabbit out of the hat and world abandons apple solution and migrates.

I will give you one simple example, i have android phone, I upgrade the OS from 1.5 to 2.1 which erase everything on the phone all the apps i down loaded, no way to back it up to my computer and it took me weeks to remember all the apps i had and go out and locate them again and re-install them. Every time we updates the wife's iphone it was 30 minute deal and the phone was right back to where it was before the upgrade.

These are the things people do not realize when they say one is better than another.
post #16 of 248
One of the major beats they're missing is that a huge draw (especially in terms of profits) is apps. Some people will see 259 million Androids versus 130 million iPhones and say "Hey, devs will stop developing for iPhone and go to Android, that's where the money is!" but fail to notice that iPhone owners tend to spend WAY more on apps. Not to mention that the vast majority of apps will work on most of that 130 million devices, only the original iPhone and iPod touch are unable to have the latest software. Compared with Android, where only the latest hardware will have the latest software, makes the compatible market for most apps vastly smaller.
post #17 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by cggr View Post

Who cares about projections.

Investors and app developers come to mind...
post #18 of 248
Gartner is way off on this one.

First off, I'm still a little skeptical Android has sold so many phones this year. I just don't see the phones. Everyone in my work, church, neighborhood, everywhere I go, people are using iPhones. I hardly ever see someone using an Android phone. It seems very strange to me. Where are all these supposed Android phones in the wild?

And then there are all the surveys of smartphone owners. Every survey ever conducted shows iPhone owners are much happier with their devices, by a HUGE margin. The surveys also show a good chunk of Android owners would like to get an iPhone as their next smartphone.
That tells me Android devices are turning into a "gateway drug" for iOS devices. People get sold on a Android phone for some reason, and over time they realize it just doesn't hold up to iOS and the whole ecosystem around it.

Anyway, if Apple can sell 130 million iOS devices a year, that's awesome. I'm just skeptical any other platform will outsell them. I mean, the iPod touch still doesn't have a single competitor!
post #19 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

Four years is an eternity in the tech industry. Four years ago the iPhone didn't even exist, that's what this projection is worth. And change is accelerating.

Yeah, these projections are worth the paper they are written on (and note, they were not written on paper! ).
post #20 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post


I would imagine that if they had predicted it the other way, you (Newtron) would be decrying it.

In fact, I predict it!
post #21 of 248
The 259M figure needs to sub-divided into the multitude of Android versions. A developer writing an Android app won't be able to launch his app to 259M devices, whereas an App Store developer gets 130M recipients right off the bat.
post #22 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by cggr View Post

Who are they kidding?
Nokia - poor online app store, music store
Android - Hotchpotch of versions, incompatibilities, apps and music

This is the fanboi's response. Unfortunately this is probably the attitude in the board room at Apple. And this attitude will bite the Apple's ass in a really big way.

One really easy way to increase iPhone sales is to...get ready, you knew someone was gonna bring this up...open the phone to other carriers. The public wants it, it will make everyone money and it's a good business decision.

But when you have a CEO with an ego as big as the North American continent you just don't do that. And if your a rabid fanboi you support that decision.

So live with the results.
post #23 of 248
I am having trouble understanding Gartner's basic numbers, which show a 2010 forecast of 41.46M units of iOS devices sold.

Jobs, in his recent keynote, said that there were 230,000 new activations of iOS devices per day, i.e., 230,000*365 ~ 84 million per year. That does not even include the sales from upgrades.

What am I missing?
post #24 of 248
Is this only factoring existing carriers? One would figure that by 2012-2013 that Apple would select additional carriers: China, T-Mobile, and....... Verizon for the iPhone and possible a 4G iPad.

I'm wondering why go to the trouble of trying to to an analysis when we're so close to determining what other players might be involved? I think the Android analysis seems like a valid approach because it's on several carriers.

But I'm not an analyst, just a reader, my voice's furthest reach is the forum
post #25 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by Newtron View Post

Apple's goal is to make as much profit as possible. Nothing else is a goal, but only a means to the goal of maximum profits.

Apple is not a foundation or a social club or a fraternal organization. They are a business.

Apple's first priority is to deliver the best user experience possible. Apple's historically high margins have enabled them to invest vast amounts in R&D. We see the results in terms of a quality user experience.

People saw what Apple makes.
They USED what Apple makes.
Wondered WHY no other company seems capable of delivering a similar end-to-end quality experience.
They simply got tired of crappy hardware, crappy software, malware, etc., etc., etc..

What was the alternative to "the standard"? Apple. PERIOD.
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post #26 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wurm5150 View Post

Maybe Apple should start releasing more than one iPhone model a year and go the Samsung route with Galaxy S. Different iPhone flavors. Doubt it'll happen but just a thought.

i see the new iPod nano as a testing ground for an iPhone nano.
post #27 of 248
this sounds exactly the same as when they're comparing windows computers to apple computers

apple sells the software and the hardware
microsoft sells the software

in this scenario, the same applies to google, which only makes the software
post #28 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by Newtron View Post

Apple's goal is to make as much profit as possible. Nothing else is a goal, but only a means to the goal of maximum profits.

Apple is not a foundation or a social club or a fraternal organization. They are a business.

Yes and No - profits are important but to think that profit is the only driver of every business enterprise is overly simplistic and naive. If you are a designer and you get a kick out of designing circles but squares are more profitable, what would you do? I can think of nothing less fulfilling and less gratifying than working your ass off creating something you are not interested in. A lot of people / companies do but by no means all. The reason Apple is who they are and now hugely successful is that they design what they love. They are also shrewd business people it now turns out in spite of every Tom Dick and Harry, including a fair few within these virtual walls, having spent years telling them what they need to do in order to be successful.
post #29 of 248
Thing is, once smartphones and tablets become commodities, Apple doesn't necessarily want a majority of the market share. People tend to forget that right now, e.g. smartphones are only a small fraction of all mobile phones. Once every mobile phone is a smartphone, a new class of entry/low-level smartphones with tiny margins will emerge and take over the majority of the worldwide market (e.g. these days Nokia sells tons of mobile phones outside the first world). And I think if Apple can get just 30% or more of the high-end market (represented today by the smartphone market) it will be very happy.
post #30 of 248
Gartner.

Android will kill Symbian's share; that is a given. Microsoft is likely to gain share from their current position though. Apple as a single manufacturer will never dominate share, but Android is more likely to fragment by the time it hits 30% market share. The Samsung's of the world have too much at stake to try and compete against HTC as another variant of the same old stuff.

The whole iOS thing really makes comps difficult. I imagine we will see applications for the Nano form factor within a year that will cause another interesting shift in consumption, playing synergies of iPad and iPhoneNano at some point. At least that is more believable that four years from now will look a lot like what we see today.
post #31 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wurm5150 View Post

Maybe Apple should start releasing more than one iPhone model a year and go the Samsung route with Galaxy S. Different iPhone flavors. Doubt it'll happen but just a thought.

The iPod orignally came in one flavor, I would not be surprised to to see the iPhone/iPod Touch lineup expand as well. Maybe three sizes, one on either side of the current model and a price drop on the iPod nano.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't happen either as it is easier and more efficient to support one model.
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post #32 of 248
I live with the results everyday, you see I'm an iPhone user and I've never used AT&T, I'm on one of "other carriers" the iPhone has been opened up to, people like me make up more than half of iPhone sales.

I'm quite happy with the results, thank you very much.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackintosh View Post

One really easy way to increase iPhone sales is to...get ready, you knew someone was gonna bring this up...open the phone to other carriers.

So live with the results.
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post #33 of 248
This "analysis" is already worthless because it doesn't account for Windows Phone 7 at all. Windows Phone 7 is the first viable direct competition Android is getting. RIM, Apple, and Nokia are all competing with the "HW/SW single vendor" model. Windows Mobile 6 does use the Android model (SW vendor different from HW vendor) but it was never a touch OS, unlike WP7.

I am confident you will see at least some deflection on the part of the HW makers from Android to WP7.
post #34 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeffharris View Post

Apple's first priority is to deliver the best user experience possible.

If you think they prioritize anything above maximizing profits, you have a very different understanding of Apple from its millions of owners.

They capitalize all this stuff. They don't do it to "deliver the best user experience possible". They do it to make money.

Stock buyers are rarely in the charity business or the social change business or the "improve the UI" business.

They are investing for profit. They own Apple.

If the BOD tried to implement some sort of social engineering program that wasn't intended to maximize profits, they would get the boot.
post #35 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by paxman View Post

Yes and No - profits are important but to think that profit is the only driver of every business enterpris

I am not talking about every business enterprise. I am talking about Apple.
post #36 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackintosh View Post

This is the fanboi's response. Unfortunately this is probably the attitude in the board room at Apple. And this attitude will bite the Apple's ass in a really big way.

One really easy way to increase iPhone sales is to...get ready, you knew someone was gonna bring this up...open the phone to other carriers. The public wants it, it will make everyone money and it's a good business decision.

But when you have a CEO with an ego as big as the North American continent you just don't do that. And if your a rabid fanboi you support that decision.

So live with the results.

The iPhone is already on multiple carriers in most countries it's available. The big one of course where it isn't is the US. Even if (or I should say when) it goes multiple carrier here, Android is still going to outsell it. It won't be about carrier availability but quantity of models. Gazillion Android models to 1.
post #37 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blackintosh View Post

This is the fanboi's response. Unfortunately this is probably the attitude in the board room at Apple. And this attitude will bite the Apple's ass in a really big way.

One really easy way to increase iPhone sales is to...get ready, you knew someone was gonna bring this up...open the phone to other carriers. The public wants it, it will make everyone money and it's a good business decision.

But when you have a CEO with an ego as big as the North American continent you just don't do that. And if your a rabid fanboi you support that decision.

So live with the results.

It's also the opinion of most analysts though. With 3.0 Google is supposedly going to address the fragmantation problem for the first time in a serious way by not allowing all the special UIs that companies have developed. So in that sense, Android will become more like Windows products in that they will look the same on all the different devices running them. I'm not saying it's a bad thing, just the opposite, but it will winnow out all the special stuff we see now.

In addition, everywhere you read about comarisons between the apps in Apple's store with Google's, you will se that Android apps aren't considered to be as good. Developers certainly aren't making any money on them.

It's easy to try to play off anyone who thinks that Apple is doing the right thing as being a rabid fanboy. I suppose you are an Android rabid fanboy then as you're defending them. All you're doing is bringing the conversation down to a worthless level. If you're going to continue to troll in that way, I suggest you do it somewhere else.
post #38 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

I live with the results everyday, you see I'm an iPhone user and I've never used AT&T, I'm on one of "other carriers" the iPhone has been opened up to, people like me make up more than half of iPhone sales.

I'm quite happy with the results, thank you very much.

I'm glad you support my argument that people would love to have an iPhone on other carriers. I appreciate the back up. Most people just insult me and avoid the issues.

A very refreshing post. You are a stand up guy. Thank you.

I hope the rest of you are listening.
post #39 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

I am having trouble understanding Gartner's basic numbers, which show a 2010 forecast of 41.46M units of iOS devices sold.

Jobs, in his recent keynote, said that there were 230,000 new activations of iOS devices per day, i.e., 230,000*365 ~ 84 million per year. That does not even include the sales from upgrades.

What am I missing?

Just like Android activations, iOS activations have been increasing. Some of them are iPad activations which weren't around at the beginning of the year.
post #40 of 248
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

Four years is an eternity in the tech industry. Four years ago the iPhone didn't even exist, that's what this projection is worth. And change is accelerating.

Exactly.
And, if you believe this forecast, then OMG! Time to short AAPL¡
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